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NCAA Tourney Team Selection Options
- Thread starter DrunkTrainPolka
- Start date
Fighting Sioux 23
New member
I was just using CHN's "Power 16." They had Clarkson in at 15.
FWIW, I have not watched a single college game outside of the NCHC this season, with the exception of about half of the Michigan-Wisconsin game the other weekend. I have no real idea how strong/weak any of the teams outside the NCHC are this year.
Fighting Sioux 23
New member
I would hope the committee members take it seriously and watch at least a certain number of games from the teams in contention. Instead, I fear there will be a lot of "AIC might have been 17-4, but they lost to Canisius! They would have been 4-17 in a real conference." or "Yeah Denver was 12-12-1, but they had to go through a gauntlet this season and but for running into the absolute juggernaut that is North Dakota in the NCHC Tournament Championship game and getting slaughtered by 10, they likely would have won the NCHC's auto-bid." : - )
I get it. We are spoiled in college hockey with a normal objective(-ish?) way to select our NCAA Tournament qualifiers. That is gone this year, so we are all looking for other pieces of objective criteria to select the teams this year. Historical data (to some extent) is a fair and objective tool to use; however, it can be subjectively manipulated. For example, if we go back to 1987-1988, you could argue LSSU is a top 3-5 program in college hockey. If we go back only to 2017-2018, North Dakota has never made the NCAA Tournament. The same can be said for conferences. Historically, the WCHA is the best college hockey conference in history. The last 6-8 years? Not so much.
Personally, the more I think about it, I would prefer the Modified CC Rule + 1 at large from each conference based on Pairwise/RPI/KRACH. Yeah, Atlantic Hockey and the 4-team ECAC get two teams in, and probably a legitimate title contender from Hockey East, B1G, WCHA, and/or NCHC gets left home, but it is a decent blend of pure objective data (winning conference hardware) with historical data (limiting Atlantic Hockey to 1 auto-bid along with the 4-team ECAC). Of course, I say this after my team has clinched one of those auto-bids...so please take my opinion with a grain (bucket?) of salt. : - )
Mike Kemp was on another podcast and revealed Albany as Manchester replacement. He also said with the Colorado schools not currently in the mix for a tournament spot, they have more flexibility with the flight is a flight theory. He indicated there could be a lot more bracket integrity than you would think given the NCAA said to limit travel. Now of course, bracket integrity is still not as clear since the PWR isn't being used. But still, doesn't seem like it will be all western teams in west and all eastern teams in east.
SCSUBlackandRed
New member
Ok, might as well have called the post/suggestion from the Tech guy "Hey, Let's Screw the NCHC, Big Ten and HE Because They Hurt Our Feelings NCAA Tournament Plan."
In no logical universe (or illogical as is the world we currently live in) does the AHA deserve 3 NCAA bids in Men's D1 hockey. Historical performance shouldn't drive exact allocations/bids but it should inform decisions this year. Conferences don't go from strong to weak or the reverse in this sport. I'm not saying allocate spots exactly as they have played out in the past but that should be a guide as to who gets in. At the same time, don't excessively reward historically strong conferences (I do think the NCHC is down a little this year, I've watched a good amount).And bids should be determined and reward teams for their play over the course of the season with the exception being auto-bids given to conference tourney champs. And the whole "fair" allocation using a percentage of your total schools in a conference is absolute garbage. That is some participation ribbon BS right there.
Pairwise is absolute garbage this year but I think it is definitely showing the value of itself in normal years. Can't wait to have that back. I do like Fighting Sioux 23's reference/reliance on the Modified CC rules. All pretty good requirements in a year like this one. I'd add one more, requirement of 20 games played by regular season/conference championships are concluded. Playing less games is an advantage when you get into the tourney, lots less wear and tear on the players. Teams that found a way to keep themselves clear of the virus and complete almost a normal season should be rewarded. But I'll digress on that as the NCAA picked 13 as the number and most teams will meet that criteria.
So with all that said, this is who I'd put in the tourney as of right now based on regular season records also factoring in performance against top teams in their respective leagues:
AHA (Surprise! Potentially two here in spite of what I said above)
AIC - they deserve to be in regardless of winning their conference tournament
Army or Robert Morris (if either wins the conference tournament, neither if they don't)
Big 10 (we've got an issue if one of these three doesn't win the conference tourney)
Minnesota
Wisconsin
Michigan
ECAC
Quinnippiac
Clarkson
Hockey East
BC
BU (really don't like this one based on total games played, but they qualify per the NCAA and they have had some really good wins)
UMass
NCHC
UND
SCSU, UMD or UNO (pick two of three - whoever finishes higher and also factor in conference tourney performance)
WCHA
Minnesota State (Mankato)
Bowling Green, Lake Superior, Bemidji or Michigan Tech (pick two of three - same criteria as NCHC, a lot is going to change with these teams in the coming weeks)
Leaves one spot open. Probably going to see an upset somewhere in a conference tourney, so that somewhat allows for that. Or if there isn't, can pick from the just missed list of the NCHC and WCHA and probably bring in Providence or Northeastern into the discussion.
Going to be some teams upset with the committee's decisions. But as things stand right now, the field above looks pretty good to me.
In no logical universe (or illogical as is the world we currently live in) does the AHA deserve 3 NCAA bids in Men's D1 hockey. Historical performance shouldn't drive exact allocations/bids but it should inform decisions this year. Conferences don't go from strong to weak or the reverse in this sport. I'm not saying allocate spots exactly as they have played out in the past but that should be a guide as to who gets in. At the same time, don't excessively reward historically strong conferences (I do think the NCHC is down a little this year, I've watched a good amount).And bids should be determined and reward teams for their play over the course of the season with the exception being auto-bids given to conference tourney champs. And the whole "fair" allocation using a percentage of your total schools in a conference is absolute garbage. That is some participation ribbon BS right there.
Pairwise is absolute garbage this year but I think it is definitely showing the value of itself in normal years. Can't wait to have that back. I do like Fighting Sioux 23's reference/reliance on the Modified CC rules. All pretty good requirements in a year like this one. I'd add one more, requirement of 20 games played by regular season/conference championships are concluded. Playing less games is an advantage when you get into the tourney, lots less wear and tear on the players. Teams that found a way to keep themselves clear of the virus and complete almost a normal season should be rewarded. But I'll digress on that as the NCAA picked 13 as the number and most teams will meet that criteria.
So with all that said, this is who I'd put in the tourney as of right now based on regular season records also factoring in performance against top teams in their respective leagues:
AHA (Surprise! Potentially two here in spite of what I said above)
AIC - they deserve to be in regardless of winning their conference tournament
Army or Robert Morris (if either wins the conference tournament, neither if they don't)
Big 10 (we've got an issue if one of these three doesn't win the conference tourney)
Minnesota
Wisconsin
Michigan
ECAC
Quinnippiac
Clarkson
Hockey East
BC
BU (really don't like this one based on total games played, but they qualify per the NCAA and they have had some really good wins)
UMass
NCHC
UND
SCSU, UMD or UNO (pick two of three - whoever finishes higher and also factor in conference tourney performance)
WCHA
Minnesota State (Mankato)
Bowling Green, Lake Superior, Bemidji or Michigan Tech (pick two of three - same criteria as NCHC, a lot is going to change with these teams in the coming weeks)
Leaves one spot open. Probably going to see an upset somewhere in a conference tourney, so that somewhat allows for that. Or if there isn't, can pick from the just missed list of the NCHC and WCHA and probably bring in Providence or Northeastern into the discussion.
Going to be some teams upset with the committee's decisions. But as things stand right now, the field above looks pretty good to me.
I think the fringe at large teams could just come down to conference tournament performance. That's almost an extension of the NCAA tournament if they were to go that route.
I see you mentioned Clarkson but are you putting them in based on their performance or just to give the ECAC another slot? Not sure they deserve two bids with a 4 team league and Clarkson not really lighting the world on fire.
I see you mentioned Clarkson but are you putting them in based on their performance or just to give the ECAC another slot? Not sure they deserve two bids with a 4 team league and Clarkson not really lighting the world on fire.
I don't think Clarkson gets in unless they win their tournament.
I agree that a lot is going to come down to the conference tournaments. In the AHA, WCHA and ECAC, if the best teams win the tournament, I don't think you'll see many at-large teams from the three conferences, with the exception of the WCHA. It's possible, depending upon the finish of the season and the tournament, that we could see as many as three WCHA teams, although my bet would probably be on two right now.
You have to figure Minnesota is a lock, and Wisconsin almost a lock out of the B1G. Michigan seems to be on the right side of the bubble, depending upon their finish, but upsets from teams like Notre Dame, Clarkson or in the AHA might doom them.
The top four in the NCHC seem like a pretty solid bet, although I'd only lock in SCSU and UND right now. But again, I could see UMD or Omaha getting bounced if they finish in a "meh" fashion and there are upsets elsewhere.
HE is a mystery to me. It seems like BC and BU have to be locks, with UMass also a pretty solid bet. I think they'll get another team, but I have no idea which team it will be, and depending upon upsets elsewhere, that might change.
My personal opinion is that, by selection Sunday, there will probably be about 12 or 13 teams that "most" hockey observers will agree should be in, but the trick will be the last 3-4 teams, and seeding.
If you don't mind.....(btw, where is Ticapnews?)...
I think the following are locks:
AHA: AIC
B10: Minnesota, Wisconsin
ECAC: Quinnipiac
HE: BC, BU
WCHA: MSU-M
NCHC: UND
Then, it seems to me that the following tiers of choices would be in play (somewhat subjective, because this isn't entirely by record, and I am going to give NCHC a lot of credit here):
Tier 1: SCSU, Michigan
Tier 2: UMD, Massachusetts, UNO (although UNO would be at the bottom of this list)
Tier 3: Northeastern
Tier 4: Providence, Clarkson, Bemidji, Bowling Green, Army
I'd be pretty sure the entire field will come from among these.
In the usual way we talk about, I suppose that Bemidji and Bowling Green, and for sure Army are going to have a hard time arguing their case without a Tournament Championship.
As for the bracket....A lot depends on how highly the committee eventually values BU. At present, the #1s would obviously be BC, UND, Minnesota and ??? (Although this could change). BU and UW would be the potential 4th #1, imo.
Since there is some kind of suggestion to limit travel, I would guess that you will see very little travel cross country, so I'd expect something like this:
Loveland: Minnesota, NCHC #2, Wisconsin, NCHC #4(?)
Fargo: NoDak, Mankato, NCHC #3, Michigan...with preference to St Cloud and Duluth for this regional.
Albany: BU, UMass, Clarkson (?), Providence (?)
Bridgeport: BC, Quinnipiac, Northeastern, AIC with a possibility of a 2nd WCHA team ending up in an eastern region.
Of course, this is highly dependent on tourneys. Let's just say that BG or BSU wins the WCHA. And, that someone besides AIC wins the AHA....then you have a more difficult situation.....You would start thinking like this:
Eastern teams: BC, BU, QU, AIC, AHA Champ, UMass....???
Western teams: UM, UW, UND, MSU-M, WCHA Champ.....???
And, in the West, it's pretty easy to pencil in 2 or 3 more NCHC teams, plus Michigan. And, again, you end up with, likely, some Western team flying to Albany.
I think the following are locks:
AHA: AIC
B10: Minnesota, Wisconsin
ECAC: Quinnipiac
HE: BC, BU
WCHA: MSU-M
NCHC: UND
Then, it seems to me that the following tiers of choices would be in play (somewhat subjective, because this isn't entirely by record, and I am going to give NCHC a lot of credit here):
Tier 1: SCSU, Michigan
Tier 2: UMD, Massachusetts, UNO (although UNO would be at the bottom of this list)
Tier 3: Northeastern
Tier 4: Providence, Clarkson, Bemidji, Bowling Green, Army
I'd be pretty sure the entire field will come from among these.
In the usual way we talk about, I suppose that Bemidji and Bowling Green, and for sure Army are going to have a hard time arguing their case without a Tournament Championship.
As for the bracket....A lot depends on how highly the committee eventually values BU. At present, the #1s would obviously be BC, UND, Minnesota and ??? (Although this could change). BU and UW would be the potential 4th #1, imo.
Since there is some kind of suggestion to limit travel, I would guess that you will see very little travel cross country, so I'd expect something like this:
Loveland: Minnesota, NCHC #2, Wisconsin, NCHC #4(?)
Fargo: NoDak, Mankato, NCHC #3, Michigan...with preference to St Cloud and Duluth for this regional.
Albany: BU, UMass, Clarkson (?), Providence (?)
Bridgeport: BC, Quinnipiac, Northeastern, AIC with a possibility of a 2nd WCHA team ending up in an eastern region.
Of course, this is highly dependent on tourneys. Let's just say that BG or BSU wins the WCHA. And, that someone besides AIC wins the AHA....then you have a more difficult situation.....You would start thinking like this:
Eastern teams: BC, BU, QU, AIC, AHA Champ, UMass....???
Western teams: UM, UW, UND, MSU-M, WCHA Champ.....???
And, in the West, it's pretty easy to pencil in 2 or 3 more NCHC teams, plus Michigan. And, again, you end up with, likely, some Western team flying to Albany.
I would have to agree with the idea of difficulty predicting a bracket. We could, however, analyze a few things.....
To Loveland: No one except the CO schools is close enough to bus (Omaha is 530 miles)
To Fargo: Minn, Bemidji, Mankato, and all the Top 4 NCHC schools could drive (I am using 500 miles and Omaha is 420 or so)
East: Are all the teams involved close enough to drive to any of these? Someone???
With respect to my earlier posts:
#1 seeds: No Dak, BC, and right now Minnesota seem set (Mankato, Wisconsin and BU have chances)
The hardest thing to predict is going to be.....How does the committee compare the B10 top team (Minn or Wisc) with Mankato and with BU? Once they do that, the rest of the bracket might fill in pretty easily, save for the last couple of teams in (barring tourney upsets)
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SCSUBlackandRed
New member
Yeah, I probably gave them a little more credit than maybe they deserve. They have played Quinnipiac tough so giving them points for that. They probably fall in the same range as the teams I listed as "need to do well in their conference tournament" crowd. I also think the committee is going to want to keep the bids pretty close to even split for East vs. West. So that's probably 3 NCHC, 2 WCHA and 3 B10. Maybe you go 4 NCHC but then it's 9-7 in favor of the West. Possible but not sure they do that.
And I'm starting to think I was too tough on my own team but if they get swept by UMD in the last series of the season (now split across two weekends), they move to third in the NCHC and then they could face their this year kryptonite in Western Michigan (WTF, I mean they are decent but that's 4 of 8 losses to a 7th place team). So if they lose to Western in the NCHC tourney, that's not a good look to get in to the big tourney. For what it's worth, SCSU did play the top teams of UND and UMD really tough so far this year. It is a pretty tough conference, I know that's not breaking news.
SCSUBlackandRed
New member
For #1 seeds, I think Mankato should be a lock barring a complete meltdown, which isn't likely with their goalie. They would have been a #1 last year, a lot of that team is back and they have been solid all year. So that makes it UND, BC, Minnesota or Wisconsin (probably Minnesota but Wisconsin could win the regular season title and the conference tourney - Minnesota sucks in the conference tourney since the reformation of the Big 10). Think whichever of those two has a little slide in the next few weeks plays themselves out of a #1 seed.
UND should be the overall #1 and obviously is in Fargo. Mankato should be the #1 in Loveland but they'll get sent east if Minnesota is the other #1. Minnesota goes to Loveland and BC is the overall #2 and gets the most advantageous site out East.
IF SCSU finishes a strong second in the NCHC (regular season and tourney) they should not be sent to Fargo as the #2 there as they should be the #5 overall seed, #6 at the worst. Send them to Colorado. Taking this point further, I'd argue no second place finishers in B10, HE, NCHC or WCHA should be sent to the same region as their league champ. Screw the geography crap, don't screw the conferences.
Last point, UND couldn't be better set up to win another National Championship. One, they are a really really good team. Two, they get to play the conference tourney at home. Three, they get to play their regional essentially at home. Is what it is on the last two points but it's a definite advantage for a team that doesn't look like they need it.
Blackbird,
I agree with respect to NoDak. It's almost not fair, really. They have a situation where they can bid any year to host in either Fargo or Sioux Falls, and their fans will always go (when it's no COVID). It's not really complaining on my part, just acknowledging the reality.
As for Mankato, they didn't have an easy time tonight with Bemidji, even at home. I think you can make a decent argument that, given the balance of strength traditionally in the Big 10 versus the WCHA, that both Minnesota and Wisconsin have at least as good of results. Imagine, for example, and situation in which Mankato does not win out from now until the end of their tourney, and UM and UW play in the B10 final. In that case, I think you can make an argument that the 2 B10 teams are stronger than Mankato.
It's sort of like this year, how do you know?
I expect from the West:
For sure 8 teams....
3 B10
3 NCHC for sure
1 WCHA for sure
1 more extra from the NCHC or WCHA
and possibly one more, even if tourneys go chalk
In the East, I expect:
3 HE
1 ECAC
1 AHA
2 more from among HE #4&5 or Clarkson
If Tourneys go weird, then who knows.
As for Regionals....
I think the committee is going to do their usual idea of no intraconference play in Round 1, but I don't think that will hold for round 2.
If they tried to keep it for Round 2 as well, as you have suggested, then you might have to fly one of the NCHC teams out East, which is possible.
But, considering what they have done before, I don't think they will choose that.
I guess we'll see, and as usual, the next 2 weekends will be interesting.
I agree with respect to NoDak. It's almost not fair, really. They have a situation where they can bid any year to host in either Fargo or Sioux Falls, and their fans will always go (when it's no COVID). It's not really complaining on my part, just acknowledging the reality.
As for Mankato, they didn't have an easy time tonight with Bemidji, even at home. I think you can make a decent argument that, given the balance of strength traditionally in the Big 10 versus the WCHA, that both Minnesota and Wisconsin have at least as good of results. Imagine, for example, and situation in which Mankato does not win out from now until the end of their tourney, and UM and UW play in the B10 final. In that case, I think you can make an argument that the 2 B10 teams are stronger than Mankato.
It's sort of like this year, how do you know?
I expect from the West:
For sure 8 teams....
3 B10
3 NCHC for sure
1 WCHA for sure
1 more extra from the NCHC or WCHA
and possibly one more, even if tourneys go chalk
In the East, I expect:
3 HE
1 ECAC
1 AHA
2 more from among HE #4&5 or Clarkson
If Tourneys go weird, then who knows.
As for Regionals....
I think the committee is going to do their usual idea of no intraconference play in Round 1, but I don't think that will hold for round 2.
If they tried to keep it for Round 2 as well, as you have suggested, then you might have to fly one of the NCHC teams out East, which is possible.
But, considering what they have done before, I don't think they will choose that.
I guess we'll see, and as usual, the next 2 weekends will be interesting.
JohnsonsJerseys
Michigan Tech Fan
And unfortunately with this statement you negated the validity of your post because the basis of your conclusions are "big name programs are better than other programs...".
Bemidji played no BigTen teams.
Mankato played no BigTen teams.
Minnesota played no WCHA teams.
Wisconsin played no WCHA teams.
There is no argument/comparison to be made between the WCHA and BigTen for the 2020-21 season because there is zero data to review.
Bemidji and Makato will likely show themselves to be two of the top teams in the WCHA this season.
WI and MN will likely show themselves to be two of the top teams in the BigTen this season.
That is where the analysis ends.
If you believe Mankato is good, then Bemidji is also good because they have the head to games to show it. After being shut out in the season opener, BSU lost by one goal in regulation, lost in OT, beat Mankato 4-1 and lost last night in OT. We'll see how they do tonight when the series moves back to Bemidji for their 6th meeting.
Usually it is the NCHC teams flying this "relative comparison" flag.
"We're better than all the others."
"Why?"
"Because we're telling you..."
*roll eyes*
manurespreader
Still upright
I just use the eye test and there is no way 4 or 5 teams from HE deserve to be in. 3 is a gift. I'd take 3 from the B1g, I think Mankato is the equal of any of the B1g teams, I don't think the NCHC is as good recent years even though ND is . 2 at most for AH and 1 for ECAC, though if Clarkson wins a lot here a the end you might put them in.
Fighting Sioux 23
New member
At least 3 from Hockey East get in. Probably 4.
Since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 12 teams in 1988, only 3 times has Hockey East been limited to 2 teams: 1993, 1997, and 2008. Hockey East teams won in 1993 (Maine - perhaps the best team ever) and 2008 (BC), and made the title game in 1997 (BU lost to North Dakota : - D)