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NCAA Tourney Team Selection Options

Fighting Sioux 23 said:
Loveland:
2. Minnesota v. 15. Omaha
6. Wisconsin v. 9. Minnesota Duluth

Does the committee "reward" them by keeping them out West? Or do they send them out to Albany? There is basically no difference travel wise between Minnesota and Minnesota State if we are presuming they are going to the Loveland/Albany regionals as #1 seeds. The more I think about it, the more I think it is likely that the Gophers wind up in Loveland.
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What you've proposed here is not a "reward" in any way. Flying to CO for an insane regional vs flying east for a weaker one? The reward would be east.
 
J.D. said:
Despite Denver's record, giving the nod to Omaha over them bothers me but I understand the overall math is in Omaha's favor. I am cheering for a way to get both of them out and leave the NCHC with just the three. That might cause the world to spontaneously combust but I'm in! Would be a frosty discussion between Mike Gabinet and Mike Kemp I am sure. So with Kemp on the committee and the regional being in Loveland, it's probably the biggest question mark in this entire thing.

I have mentioned it a couple times but based on your rankings I wouldn't rule out BC and UMass to Albany as the 1/2 and then send the stronger #1 like Minnesota to Bridgeport with a "weaker" two seed in QU. It's not like they will be playing in front of a Bobcat home crowd and they would be flying to Loveland or Albany in this scenario.

I do agree with your top 12. I haven't done all the possibilities but based on upsets today is there a way that one of those current #3s gets knocked out? And if so, do you think the committee would knock a team out based more on merit/ability or based on what conference they are in and how many teams that conference will have in the field?
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I think if there are any upsets today, Denver/Omaha are likely gone. I just think PC and Bemidji State have stronger arguments (and potentially even an AIC). Going a step further, if there are two or more upsets, then I think for sure Denver/Omaha are out of the mix.

As for Minnesota to Bridgeport, the more I keep thinking about it, and the committee's emphasis on travel this year, I keep coming back to Minnesota going out to Loveland. It's (slightly) less travel than any of the eastern regionals, and could be seen as a "reward" for the Gophers. That being said, if we send BC to Albany (I agree, I would not rule that out either, but I think it is less likely), then the "punishment" for a western team going out east grows further, as the travel would be (again, slightly) further and they would potentially have to play a couple of "home" teams in Providence and Quinnipiac to get to the Frozen Four. It is a very interesting debate, but, as I said, the more I think about it, I think the Gophers are going to Loveland (which means they may be rooting hard for upsets to avoid Denver or Omaha in the first round).

I really don't see many scenarios where one of the current #3s gets knocked out. Worst case scenario for these teams would be:

Lowell upsets Massachusetts
St. Lawrence upsets Quinnipiac
Northern Michigan upsets LSSU
Canisius upsets AIC

Those teams would almost certainly be the four #4 seeds.

So, who currently on the #4 line (PC, Bemidji, Denver/Omaha, AIC) would have a case to take out a team on the #3 line?

I'll start with saying that I would be absolutely stunned, fall off my chair shocked if Minnesota Duluth or Michigan failed to make the tournament. So that leaves BU and LSSU.

Providence probably doesn't get the nod over BU, and I struggle to think that the committee would take 5 Hockey East teams this year. So in this scenario, I think PC is probably done, and BU is probably safe.

AIC also probably comes up short. I suppose an argument could be made to put in AIC over LSSU, but I would probably weigh that battle about 90/10 in favor of LSSU, but still a chance.

Denver/Omaha, as has been explored at great length in this thread, simply don't deserve to be knocking out top 3 teams from top conferences, so BU is safe. I think LSSU is also probably safe, but if the committee got a hair up its behind and needed to have Denver in as a local team (which I really do not think will happen), then maybe they are in danger. In any event, I would probably weigh that battle at about 98/2 in favor of LSSU.

Finally, and the biggest chance a current #3 seed (at least based on what we are all guessing) has to get knocked out would be Bemidji State. I think BU is probably safe here, but LSSU would have a decent argument up against it. Bemidji State went 2-1-1 against LSSU in the regular season (albeit with 1 OT win). The semifinal yesterday likely was the tiebreaker, but I think you could make an argument that Bemidji's record against Mankato (2-2-1) compared with LSSU's record against Mankato (0-2, getting outscored 9-2) could also serve as a quasi-tiebreaker. I still think LSSU would get the nod in this scenario, but I would probably weigh the battle about 70/30 in favor of LSSU.
 
They keep going by a flight is a flight though. I don't think they care how long of a flight it is. And the home team factor might even be a non factor with no fans. I think Bob Motzko would take the Bridgeport regional over the Loveland one you have.
 
Ya, the Gophers fly to PSU every year. They would prefer a long flight over letting Mankato fly the same distance out there.
 
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J.D. said:
They keep going by a flight is a flight though. I don't think they care how long of a flight it is. And the home team factor might even be a non factor with no fans. I think Bob Motzko would take the Bridgeport regional over the Loveland one you have.
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Oh for sure. Just like they don't care how long a flight is for Minnesota State. That being said, Loveland is closer, it is one of the western regionals, and the Gophers are the higher seed.

Also, and I know you know this but, Motzko has no say in what regional they are sent to. I understand Minnesota fans would probably want the eastern regional, but I think the committee could very well "reward" them with the West regional.

Further, I think there is an outside shot that Massachusetts gets the last #1 seed over Minnesota State Mankato if the Minutemen win today. If that happens, then for certain Minnesota is going to Loveland. As I said, the more and more I think about it, it probably makes more sense (in the committee's mind) for Minnesota to go to Loveland than Albany (or Bridgeport).
 
I would do:
#1s: NoDak/Minn, BC/Mankato
#2s: Mass/Wisc/SCSU, Quinn
#3s: UMD/Mich, BU/LSSU (esp if LSSU wins today)
#4s: PC/UNO, BSU/AIC
Here's my logic.
/ means the teams are close to level with each other. , means there is a gap between these.

So, first round matchups:
UND v BSU (or NMU - if NMU wins, this gets easier)
MSUM v PC
Minn v AIC is best
BC v UNO

Problem is: It's hard to get BC v UNO if it costs you a flight, and DU is worse. Minn v AIC is also tough to get without flying PC, because you can't slot PC with BC very easily (unless you suspend that rule this year).

2 v 3 games:
SCSU v Mich
Quinn v UMD
Wisc v BU
Mass v LSSU

That's how it should be for a competitively correct bracket. That means that the committee couldn't have an all-bus Fargo region, which I am sure they want. So, if Mass, Wisc and SCSU are roughly level, let's try:
Wisc v UMD (I think this cheats the Badgers, but....?)
SCSU v BU
Quinn v Mich
Mass v LSSU
I could live with this.

Fargo: NoDak v BSU/NMU, Wisc v UMD
Albany: Minn v AIC, Quinn v Mich (2 flights)
Bridgeport: BC v UNO, Mass v LSSU (2 flights)
Loveland: Mankato v PC, SCSU v BU (all flights)
Reduces by 2 flights if you put PC against BC

Upsets:
St Lawrence wins: Either NCHC4 or PC is out (not sure which)
Lowell wins: PC is out (this one's easy - HEA isn't getting 5 teams in)
NMU wins: BSU is out (same as above - WCHA gets 3 max)
Canisius wins: AIC/PC/NCHC4 is out.

On the 4 line, it's hard to know how to evaluate AIC/PC/NCHC4. This is the real problem for the committee, and it is the easy part of having the PWR before, because the math took care of the evaluation, and drew a hard, (sometimes very fine) line.
 
Higher seed to us maybe but this year the committee can fudge it however they want. Would be kinda cool if they released how they ranked the teams 1-16 but won't happen.
 
J.D. said:
Despite Denver's record, giving the nod to Omaha over them bothers me but I understand the overall math is in Omaha's favor. I am cheering for a way to get both of them out and leave the NCHC with just the three. That might cause the world to spontaneously combust but I'm in! Would be a frosty discussion between Mike Gabinet and Mike Kemp I am sure. So with Kemp on the committee and the regional being in Loveland, it's probably the biggest question mark in this entire thing.

I have mentioned it a couple times but based on your rankings I wouldn't rule out BC and UMass to Albany as the 1/2 and then send the stronger #1 like Minnesota to Bridgeport with a "weaker" two seed in QU. It's not like they will be playing in front of a Bobcat home crowd and they would be flying to Loveland or Albany in this scenario.

I do agree with your top 12. I haven't done all the possibilities but based on upsets today is there a way that one of those current #3s gets knocked out? And if so, do you think the committee would knock a team out based more on merit/ability or based on what conference they are in and how many teams that conference will have in the field?
Click to expand...

Being a Mn native with a kid playing at QU, I'd LOVE to see the Gophers in the Bridgeport regional. That would be so fun to see! You'd have 2 top goalies in the country, Tufto (Mn kiddo) 2nd in the nation in scoring going against Ranta and Metsa, (iron range blood) leading the nation in scoring for d at Q, fun stuff! Haters are going to say "compare the conferences". I say, nothing QU could do about their situation, put them on the ice and what will be will be..
 
Here are some things to keep in mind as we approach Selection Sunday, and a bit of a primer for some of the newbies:

Here is the committee:
  • AHA - Derek Schooley (Robert Morris coach, 2018-22)
  • Big Ten - Michael Cross (Penn State asst. AD, 2019-23)
  • ECAC - Mike Schafer (Cornell coach, 2017-21)
  • HEA - Jeff Schulman (Vermont AD, 2020-24)
  • NCHC - Mike Kemp (Nebraska-Omaha - chair, 2017-21)
  • WCHA - Bob Daniels (Ferris State coach, 2018-22)
Here are some guideposts for seedings/selection/placing:
  • There have generally been two sacrosanct philosophies when it comes to the seeding process. 1. teams that are hosting a regional must be placed in that region; 2. avoid first-round games (and second-round, if possible) against teams from the same conference.
  • The committee has stated this season that it will attempt to limit travel as much as possible.
  • Each conference tournament champion gets an automatic bid (6 teams), and then there are 10 at-large selections.
  • The teams are then grouped into four "bands" of four, with teams 1-4 given No. 1 seeds (Band 1), 5-8 given No. 2 seeds (Band 2), 9-12 given No. 3 seeds (Band 3), and 13-16 given No. 4 seeds (Band 4).
  • The No. 1 seeds are ranked 1-2-3-4, and then placed, in that order, in the region closest to home as possible.
  • For the remaining teams, while the traditional practice did not place a significant emphasis on geography (instead placing a strong premium upon maintaining a "serpentine" order. i.e. 1 vs. 16, 2 vs. 15, 3 vs. 14, etc... with the second-round set up to preserve, if possible, a 1 vs. 8, 2 vs. 7, 3 vs. 6, 4 vs. 5 setup), it is anticipated that the committee will attempt to minimize travel to keep teams closer to home. The committee will mix and match teams within bands in order to preserve the two sacrosanct issues mentioned above, but will not move teams outside their band. Generally speaking, in order to avoid an intra-conference matchup, the committee prefers flip-flopping the No. 3 seeds within their band to different regionals, as opposed to No. 2 seeds. Either way would work, but they have usually chosen the former.
 
Numbers said:
I could live with this.

Fargo: NoDak v BSU/NMU, Wisc v UMD
Albany: Minn v AIC, Quinn v Mich (2 flights)
Bridgeport: BC v UNO, Mass v LSSU (2 flights)
Loveland: Mankato v PC, SCSU v BU (all flights)
Reduces by 2 flights if you put PC against BC
Click to expand...

Flip these two. If BU gets in, there's zero chance the committee puts them on a plane with two sites in bus range. Michigan flies regardless, they go to Loveland.

I could even see the committee, in this case, keep PC in Bridgeport against BC to reduce the travel again. I think they're going to *heavily* prioritize lack of flights even it means first round conference games.
 
I am picturing Mike Schafer showing up on these Zoom calls with a shaggy beard, wrinkled t shirt and empty beer bottles all around. Then Bob Daniels and Jeff Schulman can tell everyone how great all the teams in their leagues are after going a combined 2-33-3 record. And no that is not a typo.
 
As it stands now, there should be enough options to avoid first round conference games especially since we haven't had basically any non conference games this year. It's bad enough when you get those regional final possibilities of a game that was just played a week ago. We really don't need to see first round conference games this year.
 
SLU 1 - QU 0 End 1

I maintain that if QU loses this game they should be forced to bus to Fargo *smiley face*
 
QU has Wyatt Bongiovanni back for first time since before Christmas. He had 4-3-7 in 7 games to start the year. Pretty big addition.

2-1 QU in 2nd
 
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