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NCAA Tournament Selection and Seeding

Great points, I have been saying all along Penn State had it's destiny in it's own hands and did not take care of business. Maybe it is time to dissolve the CHA and begin lobbying for a conference with Penn State, OSU, Uof M, Wisc, Northeastern, and Duluth,
Rit goes to the ECAC, Syracuse, RMU, Mercyhurst to the hockey east and Lindenwood to the WCHA. Just Saying......

The logic about controlling one's own destiny goes without stating. BC and UMD controlled their own destiny as well, and got CRUSHED. It doesn't change the bias and the fact that the committee failed to do what was right, and rather fell back on historical perceptions.
 
The last time I looked at the various ranking criteria, and I know not all of it was usable this year, Penn State was better than teams that got into the tournament (and Minnesota). Their Pairwise ranking was better than Minnesota, UMD, BC, and Ohio State, their RPI was better than Minnesota, UMD, BC, and Ohio State, their winning percentage was second only to Northeastern, and their strength of schedule (most important this season) was better than UMD and BC.

With that strength of schedule, they went 16-2-2 in the regular season and won the conference regular season title - not the same as winning the conference tournament, I know, but the entirety of a season should count for something. And when your strength of schedule is rated higher than UMD and BC (and you won your conference regular season title), how do UMD and BC get in over Penn State?

I talked to Flanagan at the CHA tournament after they upset Penn State. He is a man with a lot of integrity. He was going to argue for Penn State but he also said that it was a packed jury against the CHA. The CHA has a bad reputation whether it is deserved or not. That probably comes from the leadership at the CHA office. He was pretty blunt that within the committee it takes some time to be considered at large worthy and that basically it takes two years of excellence to prove to the powers that be that you have a legit program.

They want two years of excellence to get in, but losing one single-elimination game at the end defines your season and will keep you out of the national tournament? So what then...Penn State has to start from scratch next season in their quest for the holy Two Years of Excellence? And win the conference both years, or it's a wash? It's a season-specific tournament, and should be played with that season's best teams.

And I love the talk about committee members "recusing themselves" when required. That sounds good for the record, but does anyone really believe that? Like there's no winking and nodding involved? Come on.
 
Oh my...I guess I should be honored that you quoted me in your article. But I had to go back and correct a couple of mistakes. LOL

Hahaha I felt bad singling you out but the quote was too good not to use -- also I figured we get along well enough where you wouldn't have gotten too mad haha

I am literally asking this as hockey fan. It’s not an attack. Like you, I’m a passionate hockey fan.

What is the voting process? I understand Berlo and Crowley had to recuse themselves at times.

In normal years does the committee have control over who gets in or are they just setting matchups based on pairwise and minimizing flights?

So in practice, they've always straight-up used the top eight in the Pairwise (other than autobids) to set the field. They do have flexibility to not take a team if they don't think that team is worthy, but they've never done it. Humorously I once asked the committee chair (Sarah Fraser at the time) about the Pairwise and she said this:

I don't know if USCHO created the Pairwise, they very well might have, but somebody did, and that's not the same system or the same numbers that the NCAA looks at. Mathematically it could be the same, but we don't use the Pairwise ever.

...which is obviously wrong, of course they use the Pairwise, even if they may not call it that. The handbook literally spells out "H2H wins are worth one point, RPI is worth one point, record against common opponents is worth one point."

So anyway while the committee does have the ability move things around as they see fit, they've pretty much never done so other than in 2016 (same as the Sarah Fraser link) when they said that they felt Princeton was the stronger team even thought he Pairwise had Northeastern ahead. Personally, I think they may have been just using that as an excuse to save travel money, but that's what she said.

In theory, they are just supposed to be setting matchups based on Pairwise and minimizing flights. But they do have discretion, even if it is rarely (if ever) used. Like I said though they've never broken from the Pairwise on who to actually allow into the field.

the committee failed to do what was right, and rather fell back on historical perceptions.

You know, honestly, I sympathize with this. The field should solely and exclusively be chosen based on this year's performance, full stop. The problem though is that this year, with no non-conference games, you are absolutely forced to do one of two things:

(1) You have to treat all the conferences as equal, or
(2) You have to look back at how strong each conference has been historically and go from there.

No matter how good someone might be at the "eye test," there's nobody out there capable of watching every game to determine that Conference X was better than Conference Y this year without subconsciously using information gleaned from prior years with interconference matchups.

For a while, I was -- and honestly still am -- wondering if there would have been some merit in the committee just saying "screw it, let's just use the Pairwise, flawed as it is, and set the field that way, even though all the conferences will be treated like they're equal, since we shouldn't use prior year performance as a guide." It would have been unfair in its own way, but at least it would have been an objective metric. But the committee obviously didn't want to use a flawed metric as its guide, which is fair -- so in the end you don't have any other option but to fall back on historical performance.
 
The last time I looked at the various ranking criteria, and I know not all of it was usable this year, Penn State was better than teams that got into the tournament (and Minnesota). Their Pairwise ranking was better than Minnesota, UMD, BC, and Ohio State, their RPI was better than Minnesota, UMD, BC, and Ohio State, their winning percentage was second only to Northeastern, and their strength of schedule (most important this season) was better than UMD and BC.

With that strength of schedule, they went 16-2-2 in the regular season and won the conference regular season title - not the same as winning the conference tournament, I know, but the entirety of a season should count for something. And when your strength of schedule is rated higher than UMD and BC (and you won your conference regular season title), how do UMD and BC get in over Penn State?
Yeahhh, I get that not everyone is big into the math of it all, but you're gonna have to trust us when we say that the Pairwise just truly does not work this year to compare teams from different conferences. It's not that it's just worse than it normally is, it's that it completely mathematically breaks.

To give you an extreme example, it would be like using the results of the MLB's American League and the Rookie-A Gulf Coast League in the same ranking. Everyone's played games, everyone has a record, and everyone has a strength of schedule, but just because the Gulf Coast League's toughest strength of schedule is mathematically higher than the MLB's weakest strength of schedule, that doesn't mean that the GCL's toughest schedule was harder than the MLB's weakest schedule.

That's why I say the Pairwise treated every conference as equal -- without games to "connect" the leagues, You're may as well just take the MLB rankings and GCL rankings and sort the teams by winning percentage.
 
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(1) You have to treat all the conferences as equal, or
(2) You have to look back at how strong each conference has been historically and go from there.

#1.

In the absence of any information (and remembering the Colgate-Syracuse series; don't understate it, but don't overstate it either), I think you have to give CHA and Penn State the benefit of the doubt. When you can point at the CHA having a lower conference-wide RPI, etc. you can say "they are the weaker conference, and so..." and go from there. But in the absence of such evidence *this* year, I think you have to give them the benefit of the doubt.
 
Great points, I have been saying all along Penn State had it's destiny in it's own hands and did not take care of business. Maybe it is time to dissolve the CHA and begin lobbying for a conference with Penn State, OSU, Uof M, Wisc, Northeastern, and Duluth,
Rit goes to the ECAC, Syracuse, RMU, Mercyhurst to the hockey east and Lindenwood to the WCHA. Just Saying......

Wait what?!? Yes, maybe it is time for Penn State to leave the CHA, but...... There is no reason for Northeastern leave Hockey East? Second, putting Penn State in the same likes as the group above, is absurd. All 5 of those teams are much stronger than Penn State and all 5 would handle PS pretty easily. As you have said, Penn State lost to an average team, who then lost to a very average team - a team that could lose by 6 or 7 goals in the first round. That will not help the CHA's reputation in anyway. I would say Penn State is closer to Mankato. In fact, I think Mankato beats Penn State 4 out of 5, so maybe closer to St. Cloud or Maine.
 
#1.

In the absence of any information (and remembering the Colgate-Syracuse series; don't understate it, but don't overstate it either), I think you have to give CHA and Penn State the benefit of the doubt. When you can point at the CHA having a lower conference-wide RPI, etc. you can say "they are the weaker conference, and so..." and go from there. But in the absence of such evidence *this* year, I think you have to give them the benefit of the doubt.

Certainly a reasonable argument, for sure.
 
I’ll repeat what I said previously: media should ask the committee for some explanations.

Forgot to quote-reply this one in going through all the quote-replies, but I am planning on reaching out to the committee chair at some point once things kind of settle down a little bit. Also I'm trying to bash my way through a ton of stuff at work (I wrote that article at like 1am last night haha)... but it's on my radar
 
Forgot to quote-reply this one in going through all the quote-replies, but I am planning on reaching out to the committee chair at some point once things kind of settle down a little bit. Also I'm trying to bash my way through a ton of stuff at work (I wrote that article at like 1am last night haha)... but it's on my radar

Your work and coverage is greatly appreciated! Don’t always agree but I’m glad you’re there and writing about the sport!
 
Hahaha I felt bad singling you out but the quote was too good not to use -- also I figured we get along well enough where you wouldn't have gotten too mad haha.

No need to feel bad...Definitely wasn't going to be mad about you putting it in there. The rant is kinda funny to look at after the fact. It was just raw emotion coming out after watching my squad of choice fail again. The expectations are admittedly high where Minnesota at 11-8-1 is like having a losing record.
 
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I'm too lazy to quote at the moment, but a couple of general comments on Grant's story (always a good read) and the resulting discussion.

I remember a season where I think it was Dartmouth was the last at-large team into the field, even though the PairWise had indicated it would be another ECAC team. That team had minute edges in categories like COP and TUC (which was still a thing then), while the team that was chosen, who I'll continue to call Dartmouth for lack of any other name, had a much wider lead in RPI. The committee had enough flexibility to say RPI trumps some other wins in the third or fourth digit beyond the decimal point, and "Dartmouth" advanced and the other poor hopefuls went home early. I think that the argument was for the right to go to Madison to get killed by Wisconsin, so there wasn't a ton of outrage -- maybe the first-team-out had previously been to Madison and was fine not returning. Anyway, I do remember that precedent and will search for it at some point, but it goes to Grant's point that committee oddities have never changed the teams selected.

When you say that even some Minnesota fans are saying that they shouldn't be in the field, understand where that is coming from. Minnesota fans say that because we understood that the Gophers weren't good enough to win the tournament. Had they gotten in as No. 5 and avoided UW and OSU for as long as possible, that would have helped. Not because Colgate and Northeastern aren't good enough to thump UM, and they may have done just that, but the Badgers and Buckeyes have tried and proven methods for whooping on the Gophs. Colgate isn't afraid of Minnesota, but it isn't an ideal first-round matchup to draw a team who is in the tournament every year, only now they enter as an underdog. Northeastern is tougher yet, but Minnesota would definitely have been the best team the Huskies would have seen in 2021, and while that might be true as well for UM playing NU, I don't think it would be by as wide a margin.

Once you've been spoiled by winning the tournament multiple times, just going to it for the sake of going isn't the same. Are Clarkson fans heartbroken at missing out? My guess is that even though their season ended abruptly -- and perhaps unfairly -- they knew that their team wasn't winning the tournament without some unprecedented improvement. If you suddenly can't beat an SLU team with a losing record to save your season, there will be higher mountains to climb in the tourney. Like the Golden Knights, the Gophers had reason to hope when the season started. By the end, the dreams remained, but the more realistic thoughts had faded away.
 
The expectations are admittedly high were Minnesota at 11-8-1 is like having a losing record.
The first season in program history where we didn't make it to 20 wins. Northeastern did, but they will be the only team who does, no matter what happens in the tourney. The team can be mad, but they should ask themselves why they wound up on a level where they are being compared to UMD instead of UW and OSU.
 
I just want to say if you step back a moment to see the big picture we were damn lucky for those teams that got to play that they had even a semblance of a season and we should be appreciative that we're even here debating over the tournament. There just as easily couldn't have been one!
 
I'm too lazy to quote at the moment, but a couple of general comments on Grant's story (always a good read) and the resulting discussion.

I remember a season where I think it was Dartmouth was the last at-large team into the field, even though the PairWise had indicated it would be another ECAC team. That team had minute edges in categories like COP and TUC (which was still a thing then), while the team that was chosen, who I'll continue to call Dartmouth for lack of any other name, had a much wider lead in RPI. The committee had enough flexibility to say RPI trumps some other wins in the third or fourth digit beyond the decimal point, and "Dartmouth" advanced and the other poor hopefuls went home early. I think that the argument was for the right to go to Madison to get killed by Wisconsin, so there wasn't a ton of outrage -- maybe the first-team-out had previously been to Madison and was fine not returning. Anyway, I do remember that precedent and will search for it at some point, but it goes to Grant's point that committee oddities have never changed the teams selected.

When you say that even some Minnesota fans are saying that they shouldn't be in the field, understand where that is coming from. Minnesota fans say that because we understood that the Gophers weren't good enough to win the tournament. Had they gotten in as No. 5 and avoided UW and OSU for as long as possible, that would have helped. Not because Colgate and Northeastern aren't good enough to thump UM, and they may have done just that, but the Badgers and Buckeyes have tried and proven methods for whooping on the Gophs. Colgate isn't afraid of Minnesota, but it isn't an ideal first-round matchup to draw a team who is in the tournament every year, only now they enter as an underdog. Northeastern is tougher yet, but Minnesota would definitely have been the best team the Huskies would have seen in 2021, and while that might be true as well for UM playing NU, I don't think it would be by as wide a margin.

Once you've been spoiled by winning the tournament multiple times, just going to it for the sake of going isn't the same. Are Clarkson fans heartbroken at missing out? My guess is that even though their season ended abruptly -- and perhaps unfairly -- they knew that their team wasn't winning the tournament without some unprecedented improvement. If you suddenly can't beat an SLU team with a losing record to save your season, there will be higher mountains to climb in the tourney. Like the Golden Knights, the Gophers had reason to hope when the season started. By the end, the dreams remained, but the more realistic thoughts had faded away.

See, this captures the essense of the expectations and the ensuing frustration of watching this years Gopher team.
 
I just want to say if you step back a moment to see the big picture we were damn lucky for those teams that got to play that they had even a semblance of a season and we should be appreciative that we're even here debating over the tournament. There just as easily couldn't have been one!

That is a good perspective...Thanks for that.
 
I'm too lazy to quote at the moment, but a couple of general comments on Grant's story (always a good read) and the resulting discussion.

I remember a season where I think it was Dartmouth was the last at-large team into the field, even though the PairWise had indicated it would be another ECAC team. That team had minute edges in categories like COP and TUC (which was still a thing then), while the team that was chosen, who I'll continue to call Dartmouth for lack of any other name, had a much wider lead in RPI. The committee had enough flexibility to say RPI trumps some other wins in the third or fourth digit beyond the decimal point, and "Dartmouth" advanced and the other poor hopefuls went home early.

That poor hopeful team was Clarkson.
 
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