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NCAA Rankings?

Re: NCAA Rankings?

admiral0417 said:
I honestly had the Cards pegged for #6 or #7, close with Amherst and UMB. But I can't find the data to support some of those other teams at all. What a great motivational tool for Emery.
Click to expand...

East Teams, with the 3 general criteria (WIN, SOS, and RNK... not showing COP or H2H):

Code: 
[u]NCAA	School		WIN   (rank)	SOS   (rank)	RNK   (rank)[/u]

1	Utica		0.826 (5)	0.556 (2)	0.800 (1)
2	Norwich		0.882 (1)	0.523 (8)	0.750 (t3)
3	Oswego		0.857 (2)	0.494 (14)	0.250 (14)
4	Hobart		0.792 (6)	0.546 (4)	0.550 (6)
5	Bowdoin		0.857 (3)	0.478 (15)	0.786 (2)
6	Babson		0.735 (8)	0.521 (9)	0.750 (t3)
7	Williams	0.675 (11)	0.526 (7)	0.333 (12) 
8	Amherst		0.684 (10)	0.520 (10)	0.375 (11)
9	Neumann		0.642 (12)	0.550 (3)	0.450 (8)
10	UM-Boston	0.765 (7)	0.499 (13)	0.500 (7)
11	Trinity		0.639 (13)	0.502 (11)	0.688 (5)
12	Castleton	0.583 (15)	0.535 (5)	0.444 (9)
13	Manhattanville	0.591 (14)	0.527 (6)	0.200 (15)
14	Plattsburgh	0.705 (9)	0.502 (12)	0.429 (10)
15	Middlebury	0.546 (16)	0.562 (1)	0.292 (13)
16	Plymouth	0.846 (4)	0.450 (16)	0.000 (16)
(the number in parentheses is the relative ranking of these teams in the preceding stat)

Based on this page, which appears to be accurate (looking at Norwich's record, it IS accurate for their in-region DIII games, since we now have learned that non-region still doesn't count).


Conclusion: Plattsburgh rates no higher than 9 in any of these categories, and every team except one that is ahead of them in the NCAA rankings either beats them in SOS (traditionally the most heavily weighted), or beats them by a decent margin in BOTH of the other two. So honestly, I couldn't really justify with these numbers moving the Cards any higher than 11, ahead of Trinity, Castleton, and Man'ville (and there are counterarguments for all 3 of those teams, too).

The one exception, however, somewhat irks me. Sure, Oswego has the #2 WIN. But they are #14 on the list in both SOS (<.500!!!) and RNK. If you're going to weight WIN so heavily for them, why leave Plymouth at #16? I'm not saying Oswego isn't a great, very dangerous, team... but the numbers don't add up here. (Note: this is without evaluating COP or H2H)
 
Re: NCAA Rankings?

PSUChamps2001 said:
WEDS MARCH 6TH
MASCAC/NE winner @ PLATTSBURGH

SAT MARCH 9TH
Winner HOSTS Utica :eek:
Click to expand...
In your scenario, do you think that Platty would be seeded over Norwich? Why not send the MASCAC/NE to the highest seed not named Utica? Utica then travels to the lowest East seed (7/4 split) within 500 miles or to Adrian.
 
joecct said:
In your scenario, do you think that Platty would be seeded over Norwich? Why not send the MASCAC/NE to the highest seed not named Utica? Utica then travels to the lowest East seed (7/4 split) within 500 miles or to Adrian.
Click to expand...

WEDS
ECACNE @ Plattsburgh
MASCAC @ Oswego

SAT
MASCAC/OSWEGO @ NORWICH
NESCAC @ HOBART
UTICA @ ECACNE/PLATTSBURGH
 
Re: NCAA Rankings?

The biggest head-scratcher is Williams so high. That and Oswego being where they are. I believe Oswego can beat any team in the country, but using the main criteria it just does not add up. Manhattanville and Trinity over Plattsburgh?? Looks like the Cards get stung by the dregs of the SUNYAC getting beat up in NC and the old problem of Record vs. Ranked. For example, Trinity has played no team higher than Amherst but gets the nod in higher vs. ranked because they play #12, #14 and #15 instead of #1, #2 etc...they are not weighted.
 
Re: NCAA Rankings?

Given that Oswego loses PairWise Comparisons to every ranked West Region team above MSOE - usually by a large margin in the SOS category - is it safe to say they need to win the SUNYAC to
A) get into the tournament
B) avoid a 6/5 split in favor of the West if rankings and criteria remained the same?

Edit: Depending on whether or not the smoke-filled room decides to step in due to travel restrictions
 
Last edited:
Re: NCAA Rankings?

admiral0417 said:
The biggest head-scratcher is Williams so high. That and Oswego being where they are. I believe Oswego can beat any team in the country, but using the main criteria it just does not add up. Manhattanville and Trinity over Plattsburgh?? Looks like the Cards get stung by the dregs of the SUNYAC getting beat up in NC and the old problem of Record vs. Ranked. For example, Trinity has played no team higher than Amherst but gets the nod in higher vs. ranked because they play #12, #14 and #15 instead of #1, #2 etc...they are not weighted.
Click to expand...

Trinity has also played Bowdoin (#5) once (a L) and Williams (# 7) twice (W and T). It also has 2 wins over # 8 Amherst. Its overall record against ranked teams is 4-2-1.
 
d3follower said:
Trinity has also played Bowdoin (#5) once (a L) and Williams (# 7) twice (W and T). It also has 2 wins over # 8 Amherst. Its overall record against ranked teams is 4-2-1.
Click to expand...

Trin is 5-2-1....they also hold a 4-1-1 common opponent record over Plattsburghs 2-2-0....win % is somewhat close and SOS is close....hense Trin > Plattsburgh. On the ice? Idk but that's the way they decide things. Its important to win certain key games more then others. When you don't you are left with this. I don't know anyone that would dissagree that this is probably the best #14 ranked team. But in all honesty...anyone past #4 is in the same boat....get in and you're on the road anyways.
 
Re: NCAA Rankings?

So, Trinity's 4 toughest games would be #5 Bowdoin 2X and #7 Williams 2X. Plattsburgh's 4 toughest would be #3 Oswego 2X, #2 Norwich and #7 Williams. Who is playing the BETTER ranked teams?
 
Re: NCAA Rankings?

Nevermind, I found the problem. It was a typo. Flip-flop #7 Williams and #14 Plattsburgh and all is well. Take a gander at Williams vs. Ranked, Win Pct in region,H2H. It's an obvious typo!!!.I'll alert NCAA.
 
Re: NCAA Rankings?

admiral0417 said:
So, Trinity's 4 toughest games would be #5 Bowdoin 2X and #7 Williams 2X. Plattsburgh's 4 toughest would be #3 Oswego 2X, #2 Norwich and #7 Williams. Who is playing the BETTER ranked teams?
Click to expand...

I think you may have spent too much time on the Utica thread...looks like they're rubbing off on you :D
 
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