National Semifinal: Cornell vs. Mercyhurst

[LakersFan]

Re: National Semifinal: Cornell vs. Mercyhurst

One key set of numbers: 1-6

That is Cornell's record against non-ECAC teams (please insert your long time ago/not full team/other reasons here). Don't see that changing Friday.

A second number: 18

That is the average number of shots on goal Cornell has generated the past two games, against Clarkson and Harvard. That will not be enough to beat Mercyhurst in a Frozen Four game.

Mercyhurst has two lines that are as fast as any line Cornell has seen this year and they will apply endless pressure. Mercyhurst will win this game by 4-1 or 5-2, not because Pattenden makes 30 saves, but because Cornell is going to spend too much time in their own end.

I predict Merychurst will get at least as twice as many shots in the first period as Cornell does. If Mazzotta stands on her head, it will be close. Harvard generated a lot of shots, but Merychurst has better finishers.

 

[Skate79]

Re: National Semifinal: Cornell vs. Mercyhurst

One key set of numbers: 1-6

That is Cornell's record against non-ECAC teams (please insert your long time ago/not full team/other reasons here). Don't see that changing Friday.

A second number: 18

That is the average number of shots on goal Cornell has generated the past two games, against Clarkson and Harvard. That will not be enough to beat Mercyhurst in a Frozen Four game.

Mercyhurst has two lines that are as fast as any line Cornell has seen this year and they will apply endless pressure. Mercyhurst will win this game by 4-1 or 5-2, not because Pattenden makes 30 saves, but because Cornell is going to spend too much time in their own end.

I predict Merychurst will get at least as twice as many shots in the first period as Cornell does. If Mazzotta stands on her head, it will be close. Harvard generated a lot of shots, but Merychurst has better finishers.

Speed is fine if you can get Cornell to chase you. Problem is Cornell doesn't chase. They play positional hockey, get in your face (you'll love how they hook and hold) and disrupt the opposition's offensive flow. Mercyhurst will have to play with jam down low. Cornell does a good job of surrounding their goalie and Mercyhurst in order to win will have to get the Cornell D to give them some space. That means dishing out some hits and getting position in front of Mazzotta.

 

[JosephPSchmoe]

Re: National Semifinal: Cornell vs. Mercyhurst

I'll raise you one. Cornell by one goal in this one, and by two goals in the final.

Awwww, you were so close to being right. It's Cornell losing by two in the final against the Bulldogs. But you were half right, so you do get a point for that.

 

[RStarr]

Re: National Semifinal: Cornell vs. Mercyhurst

Sorry Hurst, you had your cake last year.....rooting for Cornell this weekend. Big Red to the end!

 

[RStarr]

Re: National Semifinal: Cornell vs. Mercyhurst

Sorry Hurst, you had your cake last year.....

 

[RStarr]

Re: National Semifinal: Cornell vs. Mercyhurst

mmmkay, I'm gonna have to go neutral here. as long as the winner of this game beats the winner of umd-um.

 

[RStarr]

Re: National Semifinal: Cornell vs. Mercyhurst

quadruple post. and what?

 

[dave1381]

Re: National Semifinal: Cornell vs. Mercyhurst

One key set of numbers: 1-6

That is Cornell's record against non-ECAC teams (please insert your long time ago/not full team/other reasons here). Don't see that changing Friday.

Do you really think that 1-6 is so much more important in terms of predicting Cornell's play than Cornell's ECAC record? Do you think that 1-6 is accurate in terms of predicting the relative strengths of the conferences? Do you think the ECAC is significantly weaker than the CHA or other leagues?

There are good reasons why Cornell did worse in these games relative to the rest of your schedule (as you've mentioned). There are good reasons to believe that Cornell's ECAC record is a much better indicator of their performance Friday.

I don't foresee Cornell getting held under 2 goals, or Mercyhurst beating them 5-2. I see 3-2, 4-2, 5-3, 4-3 as the four most likely scores (not counting empty net goals).

 

[IceIsNice]

Re: National Semifinal: Cornell vs. Mercyhurst

Most importantly, despite all the statistics, all the odds, all the ratinonalizations, do I think anything at all can happen in a one game elimination?

Yes!

I'm just hoping for a fairly called game where everyone is healthy and comes to play. Let both teams leave it all on the ice.

Go Lakers!

 

[mattj711]

Re: National Semifinal: Cornell vs. Mercyhurst

From the Frozen Four Press Conference:

Junior Forward Kelly Jesse Scanzano

Opening Statement:
"We've obviously worked hard all year and it's good to be back. I think we have a lot more confidence this year to be able to play and we're just looking forward for the tournament."

On expectations for the weekend...
"I think that coming in here, we know that all four teams deserve to be here. They're all great teams so I think, yes we're excited but we're definitely nervous because you never know what can happen in that one game."

On what was taken from the matchup against Cornell earlier this season...
"They're a good team, they move the puck well. They have a good defense and they put a lot of pressure on you. They're a great team overall, I think they were the best team we played all year."

I'm really looking forward to watching tonight's game. Mercyhurst is a great team. Hopefully, the Big Red can get it done. Good luck to both teams!

 

[ARM]

Re: National Semifinal: Cornell vs. Mercyhurst

A story on Mercyhurst's program in the Star Tribune.

From the Frozen Four Press Conference:...
Junior Forward Jesse Scanzano ...
On what was taken from the matchup against Cornell earlier this season...
"...I think they were the best team we played all year."

Nice dis' of UMD. A little bulletin-board material if we have a #1 vs #2 matchup on Sunday.

First time I've ever seen anyone from Cornell, and I was impressed by their attitude. Coach Derraugh seemed very focused and Ms. McGinty looked to be enjoying every moment of the experience.

I expect that the opening 5 minutes will be huge in determining how this game unfolds.

 

[dave1381]

Re: National Semifinal: Cornell vs. Mercyhurst

One more thing to add about that 1-6 number. Your own model says that Cornell's expected win percentage in those 7 nonconference games is 52%, given Cornell's ECAC schedule. For reasons I've stated before, I think the true number is higher, given the team that's facing Mercyhurst Friday. Do you actually believe the truth is closer to 17% than 52%?

Now let me give you one more number 5-4. That's the shockingly mediocre record of No. 1 seeds vs. No. 4/5 seeds in NCAA semifinals. I'm guessing the average win probability of those No. 1 seeds in your model over the years would be far greater than 56%. Now two of those "upsets," UNH in 2006 and Harvard in 2008, lost to a WCHA opponent that was far more battle-tested than they were. Would I go as far to make the same analogy between Mercyhurst and Cornell? Of course not, but I do think it does boost Cornell's chances a bit.

One other point -- looking at the NCAA men's basketball tournament yesterday, the three 14 seeds each had an expected win percentage of about 5% using a Bradley-Terry / KRACH type system, whatever you want to call it. The actual win percentage was 1 of 3. Sure, small sample size, but historically, 15% of No. 14 seeds have won that game, still way larger than 5%. Makes me wonder how well these kind of models do in terms of predicting these kind of upsets (though I'm guessing they fit the 1 vs. 16 and 2 vs. 15 upsets pretty well, since these are quite rare).

 

[ARM]

Re: National Semifinal: Cornell vs. Mercyhurst

Story on the game in "The Cornell Daily Sun".

 

[ARM]

Re: National Semifinal: Cornell vs. Mercyhurst

Giving equal time to "The Ithaca Journal", a feature on Melanie Jue.

 

[mattj711]

Re: National Semifinal: Cornell vs. Mercyhurst

As the game time draws closer, the more I wish I could have gone. It would have been a relatively inexpensive trip too as my sister lives in St. Louis Park.

 

[LakersFan]

Re: National Semifinal: Cornell vs. Mercyhurst

One more thing to add about that 1-6 number. Your own model says that Cornell's expected win percentage in those 7 nonconference games is 52%, given Cornell's ECAC schedule. For reasons I've stated before, I think the true number is higher, given the team that's facing Mercyhurst Friday. Do you actually believe the truth is closer to 17% than 52%?

Now let me give you one more number 5-4. That's the shockingly mediocre record of No. 1 seeds vs. No. 4/5 seeds in NCAA semifinals. I'm guessing the average win probability of those No. 1 seeds in your model over the years would be far greater than 56%. Now two of those "upsets," UNH in 2006 and Harvard in 2008, lost to a WCHA opponent that was far more battle-tested than they were. Would I go as far to make the same analogy between Mercyhurst and Cornell? Of course not, but I do think it does boost Cornell's chances a bit.

One other point -- looking at the NCAA men's basketball tournament yesterday, the three 14 seeds each had an expected win percentage of about 5% using a Bradley-Terry / KRACH type system, whatever you want to call it. The actual win percentage was 1 of 3. Sure, small sample size, but historically, 15% of No. 14 seeds have won that game, still way larger than 5%. Makes me wonder how well these kind of models do in terms of predicting these kind of upsets (though I'm guessing they fit the 1 vs. 16 and 2 vs. 15 upsets pretty well, since these are quite rare).

I would love to dive into this discussion deeper, but I have to go teach/proctor exams for the next 4 and a half hours. Anyway, I agree with most of your comments in general (using my own statistics against me, argh!), but I still think Hurst will win this game by three non-empty net goals. One of the things the 1-6 non conference record could suggest is a lack of depth. Yes, there is a good scoring line and a great pair of players on defence for Cornell, but I think Merychurst has better depth. Assuming the top lines cancel each other out, Merychurst's second line (which features a Paty Kaz top 10 finalist, since Bendus/Scanzano/Bram rarely skate together full strength) could easily outscore Cornell's second line 3-0.

Must go teach. By time I get back to the message board, we will know who had better instincts about the game.

 

[dave1381]

Re: National Semifinal: Cornell vs. Mercyhurst

Must go teach. By time I get back to the message board, we will know who had better instincts about the game.

Cheers, enjoy the game.

And of course if I'm wrong, it's just a fluke based on a small sample size

 

[UCONN FAN]

Re: National Semifinal: Cornell vs. Mercyhurst

I would love to dive into this discussion deeper, but I have to go teach/proctor exams for the next 4 and a half hours. Anyway, I agree with most of your comments in general (using my own statistics against me, argh!), but I still think Hurst will win this game by three non-empty net goals. One of the things the 1-6 non conference record could suggest is a lack of depth. Yes, there is a good scoring line and a great pair of players on defence for Cornell, but I think Merychurst has better depth. Assuming the top lines cancel each other out, Merychurst's second line (which features a Paty Kaz top 10 finalist, since Bendus/Scanzano/Bram rarely skate together full strength) could easily outscore Cornell's second line 3-0.

Must go teach. By time I get back to the message board, we will know who had better instincts about the game.

I would take Cornell +3 goals tonight for sure!

 

[BTW67]

Re: National Semifinal: Cornell vs. Mercyhurst

Talk about timing - I've got Atlantic district playoffs tonight... so please keep the updates coming! I'll be glued to my iPhone the second our game ends.

I think experience is overrated - I love coming in as a team with nothing to lose and everything to gain. At the same time, I can't deny that Mercyhurst is a great team. I'm rooting for the 5 OT's (so I can watch some of the game) followed by a Cornell win.

LET'S GO RED!!!

 

[ARM]

Re: National Semifinal: Cornell vs. Mercyhurst

I think experience is overrated ...

I think that experience is valuable, but in my mind, Cornell has experience, it is just of a different type. The Big Red must have viewed their games with RPI and Clarkson as "win or go home games". In hindsight, they may have made the NCAA field even if they had lost one of those games, but I doubt they felt confident of that before the game. So they have essentially already played 3 games with their season on the line, while the other teams at the FF have played only 1. That type of experience is more valuable in that it involves this team, not some previous year's edition.