National Semi-Final: Minnesota vs. North Dakota

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: National Semi-Final: Minnesota vs. North Dakota

"These two teams should be playing at least a two game series every year."

No.

 

[Fighting Sioux 23]

Re: National Semi-Final: Minnesota vs. North Dakota

I thought that this belongs here on today's page. Thanks for the legwork, FS23. They are statistically a little close for my liking, though.

Like I said, I think the two teams are very similar, but that Minnesota is just a bit more talented, leading to do those same things a bit better, leading to a better record.

That being, said...here are some stats that showcase how these teams have done since January 1st. Each team has played 23 games...

Record:
Minnesota - 15-4-4 (.739)
North Dakota - 16-6-1 (.717)
Slight Edge to the Gophers

Goals Scored:
Minnesota - 74 (3.22/game)
North Dakota - 76 (3.30/game)
Slight Edge to the Sioux

Goals Against:
Minnesota - 44 (1.91/game)
North Dakota - 48 (2.09/game)
Slight Edge to the Gophers

Starting Goalies Record:
Wilcox - 14-3-4 (.762)
Gothberg - 13-4-1 (.750)
Slight Edge to the Gophers

Starting Goalies GAA:
Wilcox - 1.69 GAA
Gothberg - 1.74 GAA
Slight Edge to the Gophers

Starting Goalies Save %:
Wilcox - 94.1%
Gothberg - 93.2%
Slight Edge to the Gophers

Top Three Forwards Scoring:
Minnesota (Rau, Warning, Boyd) - 24 goals, 32 assists for 56 points
North Dakota (Grimaldi, Parks, MacMilland) - 27 goals, 35 assists for 62 points
Slight Edge to the Sioux

Top Two Defensemen Scoring:
Minnesota (M. Reilly, Marshall) - 3 Goals, 31 assists for 34 points
North Dakota (Schmaltz, Mattson) - 7 goals, 23 assists for 30 points
Slight Edge to the Gophers

As is evident from these numbers, not much at all appears to separate these two teams. But what about special teams? Well, that's where the Gophers shine...

Powerplay %
Minnesota - 24.18%
North Dakota - 14.74%
HUGE Edge to the Gophers

Penalty Kill %
Minnesota - 85.94%
North Dakota - 81.58%
Edge to the Gophers

If we look at just the last 10 games in regards to special teams, we see that the Gophers have been on fire on the Powerplay, while the Sioux have been solid on the PK...

Powerplay %
Minnesota - 26.47%
North Dakota - 11.91%
HUGE Edge for the Gophers

Penalty Kill %
Minnesota - 86.21%
North Dakota - 90%
Edge for the Sioux

So...what does this all mean? The statistics would seem to indicate that we're going to see a one goal game (barring empty netters), and that Minnesota holds a slight edge to be the winner, largely based on their significant advantage on the powerplay. I maintain that Minnesota is the slightly more talented team, has been more consistent throughout the season, has more depth at forward, and has a slightly better goaltender. North Dakota has a slightly better defensive corps, is slightly more experienced, and may not have quite as much pressure on them as Minnesota does. Again, Minnesota is the favorite, but I wouldn't be surprised by just about any result.

Of course, now that I've laid all this out we'll see a shootout, 9-6 game with both goalies being pulled

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: National Semi-Final: Minnesota vs. North Dakota

Interesting stats. At the beginning of the year I would cringe every time Minnesota was on a Power Play or a Penalty Kill. Based on those numbers I should want the "Nameless Thugs" to have their usual parade to the box.

 

[Slap Shot]

15 NHL Draft picks really requires great coaching, uh?

 

[Fighting Sioux 23]

Re: National Semi-Final: Minnesota vs. North Dakota

Interesting stats. At the beginning of the year I would cringe every time Minnesota was on a Power Play or a Penalty Kill. Based on those numbers I should want the "Nameless Thugs" to have their usual parade to the box.

Minnesota definitely has the special teams advantage. Over the last 10 games, each team is averaging about 3 powerplays allowed. If that number remains the same, there is a very good chance the Gophers get a powerplay goal, while the Sioux do not.

 

[Fighting Sioux 23]

Re: National Semi-Final: Minnesota vs. North Dakota

15 NHL Draft picks really requires great coaching, uh?

Not sure who has 15 NHL Draft picks on their team...Pretty sure both schools have 14.

 

[Driftryder]

Re: National Semi-Final: Minnesota vs. North Dakota

Interesting stats. At the beginning of the year I would cringe every time Minnesota was on a Power Play or a Penalty Kill. Based on those numbers I should want the "Nameless Thugs" to have their usual parade to the box.

Yeah the PP is much better at the perfect time of year.

Because of what's on the line (NC game) I tend to think both teams will want to stay out of the box and play a "clean" game. We'll see how long that lasts or if that's even possible between these two teams.

 

[Fighting Sioux 23]

Re: National Semi-Final: Minnesota vs. North Dakota

Yeah the PP is much better at the perfect time of year.

Because of what's on the line (NC game) I tend to think both teams will want to stay out of the box and play a "clean" game. We'll see how long that lasts or if that's even possible between these two teams.

Agreed. My guess is there will be a lot of matching minors early on. Whoever refs the game certainly will understand the rivalry and will want to make sure that the teams stay in line. That being said, I would imagine that 4x4 would be a lot of fun to watch. I think Minnesota would again have a slight advantage due to their team speed coupled with the extra ice available.

 

[ShotFromThePoint]

Agreed. My guess is there will be a lot of matching minors early on. Whoever refs the game certainly will understand the rivalry and will want to make sure that the teams stay in line. That being said, I would imagine that 4x4 would be a lot of fun to watch. I think Minnesota would again have a slight advantage due to their team speed coupled with the extra ice available.

You have to consider as well that Minnesota is one of the least penalized teams while NoDak takes its fair share.

Also, in regards to your stats it should be noted that the Gophers achieved those numbers with the #7 SOS compared to ND's #22. In the last 10 games, you guys played Miami, CCx3 and Western Michigan. We played PSU, yes, but just twice.

 

[Fighting Sioux 23]

Re: National Semi-Final: Minnesota vs. North Dakota

You have to consider as well that Minnesota is one of the least penalized teams while NoDak takes it's fair share.

Also, in regards to your stats it should be noted that the Gophers achieved those numbers with the #7 SOS compared to ND's #22. In the last 10 games, you guys played Miami, CCx3 and Western Michigan. We played PSU, yes, but just twice.

I don't think SOS is really all that different over the last 10.

Both teams played SCSU, so that's equal. The other 9? Using KRACH Rankings (which I'm assuming you used to get their SOS)...
North Dakota - Ferris State (6), Wisconsin (7), Western x3 (21), Miami (30), CC x3 (43)
Minnesota - Michigan x3 (17), Ohio State x3 (22), Penn State x2 (49), Robert Morris (50)

Western and Ohio State essentially cancel each other out (although, Western slightly more difficult). CC and PSU/RMU essentially cancel each other out (although, CC slightly more difficult). And the combination of Ferris/Wisconsin/Miami (average of about 14 based on pure ranking, or if you add up points and average, they would be ranked 12th) essentially cancels out Michigan (although Ferris/Wisconsin/Miami slightly more difficult). Over the last 10 games, North Dakota has had a slightly more difficult schedule.

Also, over the last 10, Minnesota has allowed 29 powerplays...North Dakota has allowed 30.

Over the course of the season? I'll agree with you (Minnesota played a more difficult schedule and took far fewer penalties). However, over the last 10 games, the two teams have been remarkably similar in so many different ways.

 

[5mn_Major]

Re: National Semi-Final: Minnesota vs. North Dakota

Agreed. My guess is there will be a lot of matching minors early on. Whoever refs the game certainly will understand the rivalry and will want to make sure that the teams stay in line. That being said, I would imagine that 4x4 would be a lot of fun to watch. I think Minnesota would again have a slight advantage due to their team speed coupled with the extra ice available.

I think it comes down to whether the hot team can stay with a team that is technically a bit better overall.

I do not buy that UND's D corp is better. The goals and assists are a bit better...but goals against are better for the Gophers and both teams are playing the D style of play at which Gophers are typically about the best in the nation - five player offense. Also the Gophs have a decided edge in power plays and they are typically an indication of defensive integration.

I think we'll see on Thursday that UND's defense will not outshine MN's. It will come down to that crucial goal from the forwards.

 

[burd]

Re: National Semi-Final: Minnesota vs. North Dakota

I think it comes down to whether the hot team can stay with a team that is technically a bit better overall.

I do not buy that UND's D corp is better. The goals and assists are a bit better...but goals against are better for the Gophers and both teams are playing the D style of play at which Gophers are typically about the best in the nation - five player offense. I think we'll see on Thursday that UND's defense will not outshine MN's. It will come down to that crucial goal from the forwards.

There are no pure goal scorers (or anything close to it) in North Dakota's lineup this year. Unless Wilcox is uncharacteristically off his game, the pipes and bounces will have to go UND's way for them to get past this game.

 

[mnstate0fhockey]

There are no pure goal scorers (or anything close to it) in North Dakota's lineup this year. Unless Wilcox is uncharacteristically off his game, the pipes and bounces will have to go UND's way for them to get past this game.

I think Grimaldi is as much of a "pure goal scorer" as anyone on Minnesota's roster.

 

[Fighting Sioux 23]

Re: National Semi-Final: Minnesota vs. North Dakota

I think it comes down to whether the hot team can stay with a team that is technically a bit better overall.

I do not buy that UND's D corp is better. The goals and assists are a bit better...but goals against are better for the Gophers and both teams are playing the D style of play at which Gophers are typically about the best in the nation - five player offense. I think we'll see on Thursday that UND's defense will not outshine MN's. It will come down to that crucial goal from the forwards.

Fair enough. North Dakota has a very young blue line. We can make some really stupid plays in our own end as a result The Gophers definitely have more experience back there. I haven't really watched Minnesota play all that much this year, but from what I've seen I was quite impressed with how Minnesota's defensemen played sound positionally, did a great job of limiting chances, clearing out rebounds, and were very effective at getting the puck up ice and transitioning from defense to offense.

That being said, I think North Dakota has a little bit more talent than Minnesota along the blue line, especially over the last half of the season (when our Freshman have developed). I think the forward comparison is pretty similar. Minnesota is very young at forward, and they can get a bit defeated at times, especially if they are forced to the outside. North Dakota on the other hand is a bit more experienced, and they generally just keep their nose to the grindstone so to speak and don't give up. North Dakota rarely gets outworked, although it does happen from time to time (see Western Michigan game to end the Regular Season). That being said, I think Minnesota has more talent than North Dakota up front.

IMO, the differences between the two teams are really small, but the Gophers do hold slight edges in most areas. Couple that with a big edge on special teams, and I think Minnesota should be the favorite in the game. I think 5x5 will be very even, and I wouldn't be surprised if the teams score equally (or not at all) even strength. I just think Minnesota has a solid edge when it comes to special teams, including 4x4, and that will likely be the difference in a tight game. Again though, I have only seen Minnesota play a handful of times this season.

 

[burd]

Re: National Semi-Final: Minnesota vs. North Dakota

I think Grimaldi is as much of a "pure goal scorer" as anyone on Minnesota's roster.

He's a great playmaker, but he is not a finisher. Yet

 

[willythekid]

Re: National Semi-Final: Minnesota vs. North Dakota

I think Grimaldi is as much of a "pure goal scorer" as anyone on Minnesota's roster.

The only thing Rocco is good at are saying his prayers and hitting posts... May our dear lord Parise take mercy on NoDak's soul.

 

[mnstate0fhockey]

Fair enough. North Dakota has a very young blue line. We can make some really stupid plays in our own end as a result The Gophers definitely have more experience back there. I haven't really watched Minnesota play all that much this year, but from what I've seen I was quite impressed with how Minnesota's defensemen played sound positionally, did a great job of limiting chances, clearing out rebounds, and were very effective at getting the puck up ice and transitioning from defense to offense.

That being said, I think North Dakota has a little bit more talent than Minnesota along the blue line, especially over the last half of the season (when our Freshman have developed). I think the forward comparison is pretty similar. Minnesota is very young at forward, and they can get a bit defeated at times, especially if they are forced to the outside. North Dakota on the other hand is a bit more experienced, and they generally just keep their nose to the grindstone so to speak and don't give up. North Dakota rarely gets outworked, although it does happen from time to time (see Western Michigan game to end the Regular Season). That being said, I think Minnesota has more talent than North Dakota up front.

IMO, the differences between the two teams are really small, but the Gophers do hold slight edges in most areas. Couple that with a big edge on special teams, and I think Minnesota should be the favorite in the game. I think 5x5 will be very even, and I wouldn't be surprised if the teams score equally (or not at all) even strength. I just think Minnesota has a solid edge when it comes to special teams, including 4x4, and that will likely be the difference in a tight game. Again though, I have only seen Minnesota play a handful of times this season.

With Mike Reilly and Brady Skjei on our blue line, it's hard for me to agree that UND has "more talent" on their blue line.

 

[mnstate0fhockey]

He's a great playmaker, but he is not a finisher. Yet

We don't have any elite "finishers" this season either. Hence why neither team has a 20 goal scorer. And hence why MN has gone thru stretches where they have struggled to score. In fact, amongst both teams, doesn't Grimaldi have the most goals? Haven't looked it up, but thought I remember him having more than anyone on MN.


EDIT: Grimaldi has 17 goals this year, which is more than any player on the Gopher's roster has.

 

[goldy_331]

Re: National Semi-Final: Minnesota vs. North Dakota

C'mon everyone, with the gradual melt, there is no need to sandbag this spring....








ETA: BTW, I thought UND never had a mascot: http://www.twincities.com/education...-again-accused-insensitivity-american-indians

 

[willythekid]

Re: National Semi-Final: Minnesota vs. North Dakota

The only sandbagging being done is by the few gopher fans that aren't calling for a 6-0 shutout... NoDak played second fiddle to jan this year, and look what you guys did to them. May Parise help us all.