LordofBrewtown
Registered User
Re: Minnesota State Applies to the NCHC
While I agree that was a good analysis, I'm not sure I agree that it was a "smart move by their teams" - or, at least it's too early to determine how smart it may have been.
My question, would anything really have been different if those teams would not have formed the NCHC, and we still had the old WCHA and CCHA? The results above don't really change much substituting UAA, MTU, MSM, and BSU for Miami and Western. Granted, the schedule changes somewhat. However you still likely have 6 or 7 of 10 teams making the NCAA's (vs 6 of 8); the same number (5) or more (6) making the conference championship game, still have the streaming and no national TV, etc.
The only benefit I really see from thew new conference is a very (likely immaterial) benefit to strength of schedule by dropping two of the "weaker sisters" from the schedule. Maybe a small attendance benefit for a couple of games as well? But, it's likely that the tournament attendance would have been better under the old setup (with MSM and MTU fielding strong teams). That could really look bad one of these years (when 3 of DU, CC, WM and MU make the semi's).
So, really, I would argue that they gained little (other than short term piece of mind since there was uncertainty at the time), and there are long term effects still yet to be determined: are Western and Miami really any better long term than Mankato, Tech, or Bemidji? Is CC in a new era of being a perpetual also-ran? If the answers to those two questions are No, and Yes...I think you have to judge the forming of the NCHC as a mistake (the comparison isn't against other current conferences - the comparison should be against what was/would have been).
This is one of the best analyses I've seen so far and is right on. The NCHC had very valid reasons for forming. They have been successful. They are better than the current WCHA and arguably better, top to bottom, than the old CCHA and maybe even the old WCHA. It was a smart move by their teams.
While I agree that was a good analysis, I'm not sure I agree that it was a "smart move by their teams" - or, at least it's too early to determine how smart it may have been.
My question, would anything really have been different if those teams would not have formed the NCHC, and we still had the old WCHA and CCHA? The results above don't really change much substituting UAA, MTU, MSM, and BSU for Miami and Western. Granted, the schedule changes somewhat. However you still likely have 6 or 7 of 10 teams making the NCAA's (vs 6 of 8); the same number (5) or more (6) making the conference championship game, still have the streaming and no national TV, etc.
The only benefit I really see from thew new conference is a very (likely immaterial) benefit to strength of schedule by dropping two of the "weaker sisters" from the schedule. Maybe a small attendance benefit for a couple of games as well? But, it's likely that the tournament attendance would have been better under the old setup (with MSM and MTU fielding strong teams). That could really look bad one of these years (when 3 of DU, CC, WM and MU make the semi's).
So, really, I would argue that they gained little (other than short term piece of mind since there was uncertainty at the time), and there are long term effects still yet to be determined: are Western and Miami really any better long term than Mankato, Tech, or Bemidji? Is CC in a new era of being a perpetual also-ran? If the answers to those two questions are No, and Yes...I think you have to judge the forming of the NCHC as a mistake (the comparison isn't against other current conferences - the comparison should be against what was/would have been).