Minnesota Gophers 2022-23

[Steamboat]

In a way, I'm glad that going to OT vs St. Thomas wasn't ultimately what cost them the title. Take out any frustrations on failing to win a trophy where it belongs -- Wisco' (at least the part of the blame that doesn't rest squarely on the Gophers' own shoulders).
Good season, Gophers. I hope for all of your sakes -- and especially those for whom this is the final kick at the can -- that you can finish it playing your best hockey.

That is the right attitude. We will see how the individual players regroup, and how the team hangs together. Everything to play for still.

 

[Still Eeyore]

Taking this from the Wisconsin thread ...

Because of the previously mentioned defensive woes of the top group, everyone is vulnerable to losing a game in a best of three, although I don't see that happening to tOSU.

In turn, taking this from the WCHA thread.

In the case of Minnesota, goal prevention is not the problem. Outside of the last five minutes of the Ohio State series and the second half of the loss against Wisconsin, it's been fine. At times, it's been spectacular.

This team's problem is entirely on the goal scoring side of things. It's built to be an offensive juggernaut. If they aren't scoring frequently, they aren't going to win. Over the last six games, they've failed to score three goals three times. That simply won't get the job done given the personnel and systems the Gophers use.

It's not just Zumwinkle. Of the eighteen goals they've scored in those six games, fourteen of them came from Boreen, Heise, and Murphy. Heise got the primary assist on all three of Boreen's goals, and two of Murphy's. The exceptions were: Hemp's goal to open the win against OSU; Wethington scoring the first, and, ultimately, only Gopher goal of the OSU loss; Skaja getting the second goal to tie the second game against Wisconsin; and Zumwinkle after that game was effectively over. The scoring depth has vanished.

It's possible to look at this as bad puck luck. The Gophers have hit the pipe a lot in recent weeks. Zumwinkle has had several games in which she's fluffed pretty easy chances. At some point, though, you just have to put the puck in the net.

There are times I think Heise is trying to do too much, but I also understand why she feels like she has to. And there are occasions where I think that, and she proceeds to get a goal or a primary assist.

​​​​​​​Either 2-3 more players start scoring again, or this is going to be a short postseason.

 

[ARM]

In the case of Minnesota, goal prevention is not the problem. ...
This team's problem is entirely on the goal scoring side of things.

I'd likely be smarter to just say, "I disagree," and leave it at that, but I'm not very smart.

The last UM team to make Frozen Four (2019) was similar to this one: deep up front, at least in theory. Goals dry up in the postseason. That team scored once against a goalie in two FF games, and managed to win one of those. As teams like BC have learned, you have to be able to defend your net and your leads at the end of the year, because the gaudy offense disappears. Three of those four champions in five years needed to advance with essentially only two regulation goals at some point (2012, 2 + an ENG vs Cornell; 2013, 2 in regulation vs both UND and BC; 2015 did score 3 times vs a goalie in both FF games, but it was just as key to hold the opponent to 1; 2016, 2 in regulation vs UW).

In particular, you need to be able to close out a game nursing a late one-goal lead against a good opponent. I haven't seen them do that consistently in recent years. This year, they've played 13 games against teams that figure to be in the tourney field as at-large teams: tOSU, UW, and UMD times 4, plus Yale. Three goals in regulation wouldn't have been enough to win in eight of those. If we add in Penn State, that improves to six wins by scoring three goals in 14 tries. I'm not convinced that adding a little scoring pop will solve all of their problems.

 

[Still Eeyore]

I'd likely be smarter to just say, "I disagree," and leave it at that, but I'm not very smart.

The last UM team to make Frozen Four (2019) was similar to this one: deep up front, at least in theory. Goals dry up in the postseason. That team scored once against a goalie in two FF games, and managed to win one of those. As teams like BC have learned, you have to be able to defend your net and your leads at the end of the year, because the gaudy offense disappears. Three of those four champions in five years needed to advance with essentially only two regulation goals at some point (2012, 2 + an ENG vs Cornell; 2013, 2 in regulation vs both UND and BC; 2015 did score 3 times vs a goalie in both FF games, but it was just as key to hold the opponent to 1; 2016, 2 in regulation vs UW).

In particular, you need to be able to close out a game nursing a late one-goal lead against a good opponent. I haven't seen them do that consistently in recent years. This year, they've played 13 games against teams that figure to be in the tourney field as at-large teams: tOSU, UW, and UMD times 4, plus Yale. Three goals in regulation wouldn't have been enough to win in eight of those. If we add in Penn State, that improves to six wins by scoring three goals in 14 tries. I'm not convinced that adding a little scoring pop will solve all of their problems.

And allowing only three goals wouldn't have been enough to win nine of those thirteen games. I'm not convinced that adding a bit more defense would solve all of their problems. In particular, you need to be able to come back in a game when a good opponent is nursing a one goal lead.

Every truism you post has an equal counter from the other side.

The whole "defense wins championships" thing is just a myth. You win championships by scoring more goals than the teams you play, and it doesn't matter how you go about doing that. I realize that, anytime I cite actual empirical research in one of these discussions, you shrug your shoulders and declare that it doesn't matter, but I'm going to try again.

https://scholarcommons.sc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1469&context=senior_theses
https://freakonomics.com/2012/01/does-defense-really-win-championships/
https://the-cauldron.com/defense-does-not-win-championships-69887aa968dc
https://www.thestatszone.com/archive/does-defence-win-championships-14048

The basic finding across all of these studies is that the teams most likely to win are balanced and good in both offense and defense. If anything, there is a slight (and statistically insignificant) advantage to having a good offense over a good defense. There is a simple explanation for why a balanced team is, in general, more likely to be successful. Whatever aspect of the game you are, talking about, it's easier to go from being mediocre to good than it is to go from good to great, and easier to go from good to great than it is to go from great to the absolute best. The low hanging fruit is on the side you aren't so good at. There is, however, a caveat to this that I'll get to at the end, when looking at this Minnesota team.

If you actually look back through BC's record, what you find is that an inability to defend their own net was, categorically, not their consistent problem in their losses. The most common problem was that they were beaten by a team that was significantly better than they were, if you judge by the total offense and total defense of the two teams. Their second biggest problem was losing close games to opponents that were roughly evenly matched with them, in games where BC's defense was not the problem. Let's look at their NCAA tournament losses between 2010-11 and 2017-18, which is the period when they were serious contenders.

2011: Lost 3-2 to Wisconsin in semi; Wisconsin ranked #1 in the NCAA in offense and 4th in the NCAA in defense; BC ranked #12 in offense and #5 in defense; with a minute to play in regulation, the game was tied 2-2

2012: Lost 6-2 to Wisconsin in semi; Wisconsin was #2 in offense and #2 in defense; BC was 14th in offense and 10th in defense

2013: Lost 3-2 in OT to Minnesota in semi; Minnesota was #1 and #1; BC was #2 and #8

2014: Lost 3-1 to Clarkson in quarter; Clarkson was #2 and #1; BC was #4 and #7

2015: Lost 2-1 to Harvard in semi; Harvard was #4 and #5; BC was #1 and #4; game was 0-0 going into the third period

2016: Lost 3-1 to Minnesota in final; Minnesota was #2 and #4; BC was #1 and #3

2017: Lost 1-0 to Wisconsin in semi; Wisconsin was #1 and #1; BC was #6 and #4; game was 0-0 with 30 seconds left

2018: Lost 2-0 to Ohio State in quarter; Ohio State was #13 and #9; BC was #2 and #12; game was 1-0 with five minutes left


In five of those cases (2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2017) BC lost to a team that was significantly better. In only one of those games was their defense porous. Overall, in regulation, they gave up three goals to the #1 offense in the nation; six goals to the #2 offense; two goals to the #1 offense; three goals to the #2 offense; and one goal to the #1 offense.

Twice (2015, 2016), they lost to a team that was roughly as good. They gave up two goals to the #4 offense, and three goals to the #2 offense. Again, defense wasn't the problem. Over the 2016 season, the consensus was that the WCHA was a much stronger conference than Hockey East, so that game possibly was the sixth entry in losing to a better team.

In 2018, BC pretty clearly got upset. But it's really hard to make an argument that the defense was the problem when they got shutout.

Aside from looking at each of the games individually, it's also clear by looking at the season rankings that the claim BC consistently had lousy defenses is overblown. Across most of that time, they were a good defense paired with an outstanding offense.

If there's anything that those games suggest, it's that being top five in both offense and defense is the key to winning a title.

So, the 2022-23 Minnesota Gophers. They are not particularly balanced, being #1 in offense and #12 in defense. What I said above would indicate that this is a problem, and they should focus on defense. The caveat is that how good you are at offense and defense is a combination of your personnel and your systems. The roster was set last summer, and it's too late to install new systems now. It is also the case with this team that, contrary to the reason why it is easier to improve the side that you are not good at, there is actually a more plausible case that the offense could improve than there is for the defense. Over the course of the season, the defense has been about as good the whole time as it is now; the defense is what it is. However, we have watched the offense perform much better than it has lately; there is reason to think that it could be better now, and going forward. Which isn't to say that it will be better. Frustration may have set in. But I can envision the scenario in which they score their way to a title, and I can't really come up with that story for them winning by just not allowing goals.

 

[ARM]

And allowing only three goals wouldn't have been enough to win nine of those thirteen games.

On this at least we agree. Teams don't win consistently this time of year by allowing 3 goals. The objective has to be lower than that, and at least, this team's GAA is still below 2, but just barely.

Maybe our compromise is that they try to play more solidly everywhere. When they get in the habit of throwing the puck nowhere in particular every time they get it, it doesn't help them offensively nor defensively.

 

[pgb-ohio]

In a way, I'm glad that going to OT vs St. Thomas wasn't ultimately what cost them the title. Take out any frustrations on failing to win a trophy where it belongs -- Wisco' (at least the part of the blame that doesn't rest squarely on the Gophers' own shoulders).

Let me quickly note that I understand this and agree with it.

From a Buckeye perspective, we entered the weekend needing 4 points to clinch. Against an excellent team, on the road. We accomplished that mission exactly, rendering the "St. Thomas point" superfluous.

Don't get me wrong. We would have gratefully accepted an O.T. win on Sunday. But I definitely prefer the way it actually played out.

 

[KTDC]

For the record folks, Brian Idalski just led the Huskies to their best regular season in program history at 18-16-1-.557.

 

[robertearle]

For the record folks, Brian Idalski just led the Huskies to their best regular season in program history at 18-16-1-.557.

It doesn't take many changes to the 'expected' tournament outcomes to get St Cloud into the NCAAs without them having them have to win the WCHA; just a few unlikely ones.

Clarkson gets swept by Cornell, St Cloud sweeps Duluth, and then upsets Ohio State, and they get in. (And get five WCHA teams into the field of eleven!)

 

[ARM]

It doesn't take many changes to the 'expected' tournament outcomes to get St Cloud into the NCAAs without them having them have to win the WCHA; just a few unlikely ones.

Clarkson gets swept by Cornell, St Cloud sweeps Duluth, and then upsets Ohio State, and they get in. (And get five WCHA teams into the field of eleven!)

Interesting find. I'm guessing that you also need certain "expected" outcomes to become reality (e.g., Northeastern and Penn State win, as does one of the top three from the ECAC). The problem with likely outcomes is that if you need enough of them to go a certain way, that exact outcome starts to become less likely.

 

[robertearle]

Interesting find. I'm guessing that you also need certain "expected" outcomes to become reality (e.g., Northeastern and Penn State win, as does one of the top three from the ECAC). The problem with likely outcomes is that if you need enough of them to go a certain way, that exact outcome starts to become less likely.

By 'expected', I mean using the "autofill higher seeds" feature on Grant's app to fill in the bracket, then make the specific changes. A simple, common starting point for such "what if" conversations.

 

[ARM]

Understood.

 

[Still Eeyore]

Well, that's some scoring.

 

[ARM]

... and goals not allowed. For once, we're both happy.

 

[Still Eeyore]

The Gophers played well this weekend. I remain skeptical that how a team plays against weak opposition tells you anything about how they're going to do against quality foes, but I'd rather be going into the heart of the playoffs after beating St Thomas 7-0 and 6-2 than after beating them 2-1 and 4-2.

 

[ARM]

I send my prayers to the family and friends of former Gopher Becky Wacker whose youngest daughter passed away yesterday at the age of three. Very sad news.

 

[D2D]

I send my prayers to the family and friends of former Gopher Becky Wacker whose youngest daughter passed away yesterday at the age of three. Very sad news.

How terrible. My deepest, heartfelt condolences.

 

[Steamboat]

The Gophers played well this weekend. I remain skeptical that how a team plays against weak opposition tells you anything about how they're going to do against quality foes, but I'd rather be going into the heart of the playoffs after beating St Thomas 7-0 and 6-2 than after beating them 2-1 and 4-2.

Tell me your thoughts on the second Bemidji/Ohio State game. Anyone else shocked by that score?

 

[Hockeynation]

One element missing at this point from her game is that she doesn't see the big picture on the ice all that well. Last night, she carried into the zone on a rush, and the opportunity was Murphy coming in as a trailer. Drop the puck to Murphy, crash the net for a screen/tip/rebound, and maybe something good results. Instead, she fires a hard shot at the goalie with no traffic in front, and the play ends. To develop as a player, she needs more tools in the toolbox, beyond just the great shot and the strong drive to the net with the puck.

Your observations seem to be bang on. Such a talented team with great potential. Seems like a lot of individualism appears vs. the lesser opponents as some players seem to make it about chasing stats rather than proper fundamental team play and puck movement. Needless to say going to be an awesome Championship weekend to watch coming up.

 

[Hockeybuckeye]

Tell me your thoughts on the second Bemidji/Ohio State game. Anyone else shocked by that score?

Let's just say I've never seen so many non calls before. Can you really believe Bemidji gave Ohio State no power plays that game?

 

[Steamboat]

Let's just say I've never seen so many non calls before. Can you really believe Bemidji gave Ohio State no power plays that game?

I thought there was a Bemidji penalty, versus 3 on the Ohio State. From the box score anyway.