Minnesota Golden Gophers 2009-2010: Calmly Step Away from the Ledge

[5mn_Major]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers 2009-2010: Calmly Step Away from the Ledge

That's one hell of a box Lucia is in then. Let's hope with all these great recruits that he has coming in he can right the ship this season and reap the rewards that are to come.

Of course if the Exodus continues like it did for the players in 5mn_Major's list below it may not make any difference.

These early departures really hurt. Between the loss of the player who leaves, the inability to replace them with decent quality and the impact to the team in terms of both chemistry and morale...the impact is huge.

Even with this heralded 88ers, etc classes including EJ, Kessel, Okposo...the Gophers had a worse record than the Bulldogs over the last 3 years.

 

[4four4]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers 2009-2010: Calmly Step Away from the Ledge

That's one hell of a box Lucia is in then. Let's hope with all these great recruits that he has coming in he can right the ship this season and reap the rewards that are to come.

Of course if the Exodus continues like it did for the players in 5mn_Major's list below it may not make any difference.

I really believe Lucia is in a box like you suggested. It kind of reminds me of Wooger not recruiting non-Minnesotans during the down years.

 

[Slap Shot]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers 2009-2010: Calmly Step Away from the Ledge

Isn't Alt the kid that's going to play football instead?

 

[4four4]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers 2009-2010: Calmly Step Away from the Ledge

Isn't Alt the kid that's going to play football instead?

He still hasn't made up his decision if he should give up the hockey dream yet.

 

[Bakunin]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers 2009-2010: Calmly Step Away from the Ledge

...That will be good enough to be on the bubble, meaning they will be able to earn their way into the NCAA Tournament through the WCHA Tournament without having to actually win the Broadmoor.

Since **** near every game MN has left in the conference is against a TUC, I'm just going to say right now that those games will matter a lot more than whatever happens in the next two weeks. Assuming MN doesn't totally **** the bed, these games in the classic / against Harvard are rather inconsequential. The real issue is what happens with MN's RPI and TUC - and both of those things will depend very much on MN's second half vs. the WCHA.

To quantify it, MN is 4-8-1 vs. TUCs (13 games). By the looks of it, MN will play another 12 regular season games vs TUCs, and then every playoff game will be against one, which adds up to 14+ (more than they've had thus far). As far as I'm concerned, MN needs to get their TUC record back to .500 to have any realistic shot at the NCAA's.

 

[HarleyMC]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers 2009-2010: Calmly Step Away from the Ledge

He still hasn't made up his decision if he should give up the hockey dream yet.

He was quoted as saying that he would like to be a D1 football player. I wouldn't be surprised if he will be scratched as an incoming Gopher recruit. His Dad played for Iowa, he could end up there.

 

[Koho]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers 2009-2010: Calmly Step Away from the Ledge

He still hasn't made up his decision if he should give up the hockey dream yet.

Don't you mean, 'his dad still hasn't made a decision for him yet'?

Becoming a QB in the NFL has considerably lower odds than making the NHL.

 

[HarleyMC]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers 2009-2010: Calmly Step Away from the Ledge

Since **** near every game MN has left in the conference is against a TUC, I'm just going to say right now that those games will matter a lot more than whatever happens in the next two weeks. Assuming MN doesn't totally **** the bed, these games in the classic / against Harvard are rather inconsequential. The real issue is what happens with MN's RPI and TUC - and both of those things will depend very much on MN's second half vs. the WCHA.

To quantify it, MN is 4-8-1 vs. TUCs (13 games). By the looks of it, MN will play another 12 regular season games vs TUCs, and then every playoff game will be against one, which adds up to 14+ (more than they've had thus far). As far as I'm concerned, MN needs to get their TUC record back to .500 to have any realistic shot at the NCAA's.

A very valid point. Very few teams, if any, get a shot at the NCAAs with less than a .500 record vs. TUCs. Looking at the numbers and based on at least a .500+ record as a goal, the Gophers can only afford to lose 5 out of a potential 14+ games including the playoffs. A tall order indeed looking back at their performance in the first half and looking forward at the second half schedule against TUCs.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers 2009-2010: Calmly Step Away from the Ledge

Don't you mean, 'his dad still hasn't made a decision for him yet'?

Becoming a QB in the NFL has considerably lower odds than making the NHL.

Correct. Daddy Lofquist pulled the strings. Daddy Alt is pulling the strings.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers 2009-2010: Calmly Step Away from the Ledge

Since **** near every game MN has left in the conference is against a TUC, I'm just going to say right now that those games will matter a lot more than whatever happens in the next two weeks. Assuming MN doesn't totally **** the bed, these games in the classic / against Harvard are rather inconsequential. The real issue is what happens with MN's RPI and TUC - and both of those things will depend very much on MN's second half vs. the WCHA.

To quantify it, MN is 4-8-1 vs. TUCs (13 games). By the looks of it, MN will play another 12 regular season games vs TUCs, and then every playoff game will be against one, which adds up to 14+ (more than they've had thus far). As far as I'm concerned, MN needs to get their TUC record back to .500 to have any realistic shot at the NCAA's.

MN's RPI will tank if they lose games to the sucky opponents they have in the next two weeks. That will not have as much impact as their TUC record, but it will matter. The rule of thumb has always been if you're going to play bad teams, beat them.

 

[Driftryder]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers 2009-2010: Calmly Step Away from the Ledge

He still hasn't made up his decision if he should give up the hockey dream yet.

He was quoted as saying that he would like to be a D1 football player.

Correct. Daddy Alt is pulling the strings.

I hope tDon sees the writing on the wall and steers clear of this potential nightmare. If he doesn't know by now if he wants to play hockey or football then chances are he will be another distraction to the team.

 

[HarleyMC]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers 2009-2010: Calmly Step Away from the Ledge

I hope tDon sees the writing on the wall and steers clear of this potential nightmare. If he doesn't know by now if he wants to play hockey or football then chances are he will be another distraction to the team.

Good point. As in Lofquist's case it appeared in the beginning that he really wanted to play with the Gophers. Obviously his commitment was not as strong as he led others to believe and that resulted in an unnecessary distraction. With Mark Alt, there's obviously enough prior evidence that the commitment level is questionable. I agree, either Lucia needs to make sure without a shadow of a doubt that his commitment is 100% or cut him loose. We don't need anymore uncommits down the road.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers 2009-2010: Calmly Step Away from the Ledge

Good point. As in Lofquist's case it appeared in the beginning that he really wanted to play with the Gophers. Obviously his commitment was not as strong as he led others to believe and that resulted in an unnecessary distraction. With Mark Alt, there's obviously enough prior evidence that the commitment level is questionable. I agree, either Lucia needs to make sure without a shadow of a doubt that his commitment is 100% or cut him loose. We don't need anymore uncommits down the road.

Bottom line is Lofquist was a Lofquist fan more than he was a Gopher fan.

 

[Stauber1]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers 2009-2010: Calmly Step Away from the Ledge

Since **** near every game MN has left in the conference is against a TUC, I'm just going to say right now that those games will matter a lot more than whatever happens in the next two weeks. Assuming MN doesn't totally **** the bed, these games in the classic / against Harvard are rather inconsequential. The real issue is what happens with MN's RPI and TUC - and both of those things will depend very much on MN's second half vs. the WCHA.

To quantify it, MN is 4-8-1 vs. TUCs (13 games). By the looks of it, MN will play another 12 regular season games vs TUCs, and then every playoff game will be against one, which adds up to 14+ (more than they've had thus far). As far as I'm concerned, MN needs to get their TUC record back to .500 to have any realistic shot at the NCAA's.

While I agree with you that in-conference match-ups are going to be very important to any sort of hope of an NCAA bid, I disagree that these next 4 games are inconsequential.
The two games against Harvard (maybe Clarkson) are the only games MN has against the ECAC. Considering the ECAC looks like they will have 3 or maybe 4 teams sitting around that cut-off line, winning games against the conference is going to be very important. Also the opportunity to improve to a winning record against the CCHA will help with Ferris, possibly Alaska if they turn it on in the 2nd half, and even possibly Notre Dame as they are not exactly lighting the world on fire right now.
If history has shown anything, it is that a poor OOC record (or even a marginal one against marginal competition) severely hinders a team's chance of getting an at-large bid.

 

[state of hockey]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers 2009-2010: Calmly Step Away from the Ledge

You want to go just so you can yell, "LET'S GO SKIPP-ERS!!!" Come on everyone now...

No, not really. I don't hate the Skippers or anything though. I won't really be cheering for Blaine either, I am just more familiar with them going to and being in Crapids and all.

 

[Bakunin]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers 2009-2010: Calmly Step Away from the Ledge

MN's RPI will tank if they lose games to the sucky opponents they have in the next two weeks. That will not have as much impact as their TUC record, but it will matter. The rule of thumb has always been if you're going to play bad teams, beat them.

Note that I said as long as MN doesn't **** the bed in the next two weeks, the games are rather inconsequential. Winning a common opponent comparison vs bubble teams from the ECAC doesn't matter a hell of a lot if MN continues to have an awful TUC record and 25th rated RPI (which would simply mean they lose comparisons with Cornell, et al 2-1).

 

[HarleyMC]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers 2009-2010: Calmly Step Away from the Ledge

Looking at the second half, both UMD and Denver have good home records and Colorado College is unbeaten on opponent's ice (4-0-3). If the Gophers get swept twice by any two above, their chance for a .500 record against TUCs and a potential NCAA berth is slim. They would only be able to afford one loss (assuming 14 games/TUC) out of the remaining 5 series against TUCs. There is very little margin for error. It's going to be very difficult for the Gophers to get into the NCAAs, unless they are a radically different team in the second half.

Fri 01/15 North Dakota
Sat 01/16 North Dakota
Fri 01/22 @ St. Cloud State
Sat 01/23 St. Cloud State
Fri 01/29 @ Alaska-Anchorage
Sat 01/30 @ Alaska-Anchorage
Fri 02/12 @ Denver
Sat 02/13 @ Denver
Fri 02/19 Colorado College
Sat 02/20 Colorado College
Fri 02/26 @ Minnesota-Duluth
Sat 02/27 @ Minnesota-Duluth
Fri 03/05 vs Wisconsin
Sun 03/07 Wisconsin

 

[Koho]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers 2009-2010: Calmly Step Away from the Ledge

Note that I said as long as MN doesn't **** the bed in the next two weeks, the games are rather inconsequential. Winning a common opponent comparison vs bubble teams from the ECAC doesn't matter a hell of a lot if MN continues to have an awful TUC record and 25th rated RPI (which would simply mean they lose comparisons with Cornell, et al 2-1).

I think the point of a lot of the posters about winning the next four wasn't just about how their power will look at the end of the year. The point is, this team has a major confidence issue and needs to put together a streak against teams they should beat if they have any hope of having the confidence to beat those TUC's they will meet soon. I can't see them dropping 2 of the next four and then suddenly being able to sweep teams like UND and a other WCHA teams they will meet.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers 2009-2010: Calmly Step Away from the Ledge

Note that I said as long as MN doesn't **** the bed in the next two weeks, the games are rather inconsequential. Winning a common opponent comparison vs bubble teams from the ECAC doesn't matter a hell of a lot if MN continues to have an awful TUC record and 25th rated RPI (which would simply mean they lose comparisons with Cornell, et al 2-1).

Agreed. I think the implication was that the streak now would hopefully get them the confidence they needed to do whatever they needed to do the rest of the year to get home ice and an NCAA berth.

They certainly dug a big enough hole.

 

[Bakunin]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers 2009-2010: Calmly Step Away from the Ledge

I don't think they'll be able to do enough against the TUCs even if they do manage to run the table in the next two weeks. Going .500 in the last four series would be something of an accomplishment. Unfortunately, that also means they must be four games over .500 in their two series against UND/SCSU + the playoffs. That is doable but difficult.