Re: Midwest Regional, Miami vs. Alabama-Huntsville, Bemidji State vs. Michigan
Couple of things to note.
Officials could be up in the air.
Drawing HEA officials wouldn't be the worst thing.
The ice and boards at Fort Wayne are d e a d, dead. At least for every game I've seen Notre Dame play there that was the case. The boards almost seem absorbent as pucks seems to hit them and just carry along behind and around the net, and the ice seemed soft to me when ND has played there.
JLA boards are an anomaly compared to anywhere else. I think Yost boards are pretty dead too, except at the seams. Teams should have enough time to practice at the rink to test them.
And speaking of speed, I believe speed is what has UM where they are (well, that and generous placement by the NCAA
). I think the key to BSU will be slowing them down from the tops of the faceoff circles in the UM zone to the same area in the BSU zone. BSU has the style and discipline to do just that, but if they try to play UM one-on-one, they play into their hands. I think Bemidji has some guys than can move, but Michigan is loaded with both forwards and defensemen who can fly. I think this is where MU failed to beat them last week. They were scorched in the transition game. Miami and Michigan are fairly even in talent but play differently and Miami tried to play Michigan's game and got burnt.
Speed helps, but so does a resurgence of offense and a re-dedication to forechecking and backchecking. The speed compliments the latter and is setting up the former. BSU is no stranger to playing teams with speed. Most of the WCHA teams they have played possess it and Miami isn't slow. BSU also played NMU, UNO, WMU and OSU this season, so they can play a "CCHA" type game.
I think puck possession and positioning is more important, though. Michigan may have speed to burn, but spent most of the season either trying to kill penalties (from stupid over-aggressiveness) or trying to recover from their forwards over-committing on a rush, or (both forwards and defense) turning the puck over in the neutral zone. It led to too many odd man transition breaks. You're not seeing too much of late right now, but the achilles heel is still Michigan's trouble with their defensive zone breakouts. Pin them in, force a turnover and they either give up a good scoring chance or take a penalty. Hunwick simply made the saves that Hogan wasn't able to make most of the season- although in fairness to Hogan- he was left out to dry way more than the team has let Hunwick down (sans the Notre Dame away game.)
Miami played into Michigan's hand because they spent the whole game behind. The second goal was a pure mistake, a wholesale line change when the puck was turned over in their end. They had to take chances to come back in the third period and Michigan transitioned on them. I think that there are some people that may take exception to comparing Michigan's talent with Miami's, but okay. It's about execution no matter what talent you have anyway.
The key to Miami winning is likely as simple as playing their best game for 60 minutes. Huntsville is on a high note, and playing well but likely doesn't have the ammunition to skate with Miami for a full game. Notre Dame nearly fell victim to them in 2007 because once they got up 2-0 they quit playing their game. They watched UAH swap goalies after Macnicol (sp?) gave up 2 goals on NDs first 3 shots and figured it was in the bag. Even with UAH being assessed 5 straight penalties, Notre Dame did not skate hard and seemed unwilling to try to bury them. It was almost as if they were waiting to win instead of trying to win. UAH tied it up and it took nearly 40 minutes of OT for Notre Dame to win it. And they had nothing left for MSU the next night and still lost by just a single goal.
I think Michigan did the same thing earlier this season against Niagara. They had a 3-0 lead and won 3-2, with Niagara hitting a pipe at the end of the game that would have tied it.
I think your assessment is accurate here. If Miami doesn't come out with the mindset to bury UAH early and then stay on them, they'll be in for a tight game.
I also wonder if the lighter schedule for CHA teams (UAH has played 9 fewer games and has had a week off) will help them. It probably won't matter, but it won't hurt. Miami needs to realize it takes 60 minutes at this stage and if they don't, it will be a dog fight. I know every fan always says "don't worry, my guys will be ready," but Miami has looked just a little off now for a few games and I am very curious to see how they come out this weekend. My picks are for Miami and Michigan to win Saturday and Miami to win Sunday. But don't forget in October I picked Notre Dame to have people in Fort Wayne who would be dressed to play hockey, not dressed in suits.
I think that the lighter schedule only helps if you are getting people back from the injured list. The bye was one reason that Michigan State didn't show up when they played Michigan, so it can go either way. If a team that has sat out for an extended stretch can survive the first period and get their legs back, it will be okay. Otherwise, they may feel like they got trucked and won't recover.
Good luck to all the teams. I am wishing for great hockey, fair play, no severe injuries and decent officiating.
!
