Merrimack '21-'22: Can't a guy get a thread around here?

[RENCEB]

For the second year in a row, NU's Aidan McDonough and Devon Levi delivered an absolute gut punch to the Warriors. In last year's season finale, Levi had a 29 save shutout, and McDonough scored with 9 seconds left to give NU the win and the regular season title. This year, Levi pitches a 37 save shutout and McDonough scores with just over 1:30 left in the game for the NU win. Enough with the deja vu already! Devon, on behalf of all Merrimack fans, PLEASE TURN PRO!
MC's offense continues to struggle, although I am encouraged with the 37 shots. Can't go 0-7 on the powerplay. Borgiel made some outstanding saves based on the highlights.
Dropped from 1st to 4th over the weekend, although they still have 3 games in hand vs. UConn, and they own the season series. Just a few weeks ago, they were 3rd in the pairwise, but have now plummeted to 18th (out of the tournament all together).
Heading up to Burlington to play 2 against an energized Vermont team that just swept BC at Chestnut Hill. Hoping for better results.

 

[RENCEB]

Well let's see which team shows up this weekend up in Burlington:
Dr. Jekyll Merrimack of the 1st half of the season or Mr. Hyde Merrimack who has gone 1-5-1 in their last 7?
Gab Carriere can be very tough in net for the Catamounts, but they are really offensively challenged (17 goals in 14 HE games). Given MC's recent scoring woes I'd take the under on combined goals this weekend.
Here's hoping Jefferies, Brar and Copponi can re-find their scoring touch from earlier in the year.

 

[RENCEB]

Not exactly the way you draw it up on the whiteboard. Hey, they only gave up 2 shots in the 1st Period. Unfortunately, both of them went in. Talk to me about special teams play. You give up a shortie AND a powerplay goal on Vermont's only 2 shots. I'm guessing Borek had a few choice words in between periods. 3 goals in the 2nd, and nice to see Brar and Jefferies finding the back of the net.
Goaltending continues to be like Forrest Gump's box of chocolates; you never know what you're gonna get. Borgiel came in and shut the door, stopping all 19 shots. Would love to see a sweep.

 

[RENCEB]

Well I guess a 4 point weekend is better than a sharp stick in the eye. UVM goalie Autio played very well as did Borgiel for MC. Warriors had their chances, but they were 0-6 on the power play (more on that in a minute).

Up to second place with 34 points (NU also has 34 points and a game in hand) with 7 games remaining Is it asking too much for them to go 4-3 to finish the season? I "think" that would keep them in the top 4 and get them a 1st round bye in the playoffs. Away games at UNH and Maine, home and home series with BU and UML and finish at Lawler against UVM.

MC's special teams have been terrible. Power play is a hot mess, last in the conference at 12.5%. PK is 10th in the conference at 76.6%. Not sure what can be done to fix this at this point in the season, but it might kill them in the playoffs. They are also the worst team in HE in faceoff %. They lost the OT faceoff to UVM and lost before the ever touched the puck in OT. Will be interesting to see what happens against UML since they are outstanding at the dot.

 

[RENCEB]

2-7-1 in their last 10, yet somehow they have managed to stay in 3rd place, 1 point in front of UConn with 2 games in hand. I couldn't bring myself to post after the absolute disaster up at Alfond. Up 2 with under 11 minutes to go, you go on the power play and give up 2 short handed goals ON THE SAME PENALTY! That's pathetic. Then Maine takes a 5 minute major, and you get nothing, and then lose your 3rd straight OT game. 0-7 on the power play AND you give up 2 shorthanded goals? If I'm the opposing team, I'm going to hit you, stick you, trip you since there appears to be no downside to taking a penalty. Merrimack's power play is 58th in the country out out 62 teams. Don't know if there is a particular power play group that Borek is sending out, but he might as well forget it and just run his regular lines. It couldn't possibly be worse.
2 against 1st place BU next weekend.

 

[RENCEB]

BU tonight at sold out Lawler. Terriers scuffled in the Beanpot, but are an outstanding team. HUGE home game for the Warriors. 5 games left, and they really need to pile up some points to have any chance of getting a top 4 spot.

 

[RENCEB]

Tenacious. Relentless. THAT'S the team I remember from the 1st half of the season. 4th line had themselves a game! Messner (2G 1 A), Liebold (2A) and Seyfert (1G 1A) were outstanding. Beautiful goal by Copponi to open the scoring. Hope that takes the lid off for him. Great sold out crowd.

 

[RENCEB]

Mea culpa. After their mid-season swoon, I did NOT see them being in 2nd place with 2 games to go. But here we are. They have a bye into the quarterfinals, only question is where will then end up in the top 5. USCHO article says they have clinched a home game, but I'm hazy about that given the convoluted Hockey East tiebreakers.
Take care of business tonight in the rematch with UML and they are guaranteed a top 3 finish. LFG!!

 

[dmjossel]

Mea culpa. After their mid-season swoon, I did NOT see them being in 2nd place with 2 games to go. But here we are. They have a bye into the quarterfinals, only question is where will then end up in the top 5. USCHO article says they have clinched a home game, but I'm hazy about that given the convoluted Hockey East tiebreakers.
Take care of business tonight in the rematch with UML and they are guaranteed a top 3 finish. LFG!!

I also couldn't figure out how they were claiming that home ice was clinched-- after the first win lowell it looked to me like Lowell could still win out, tie with MC, and then be tied for wins and points and tied head to head. I assume they had worked it out, but none of the stories mentioned it, and the league's own tourney page doesn't seem to describe the tiebreakers-- maybe it's just in the media guide.
A website I'm not familiar with, PlayoffStatus.com [http://www.playoffstatus.com/hockeyeast/hockeyeast-tiebreakers.html] claims that the tiebreakers are: head to head, wins (regulation AND OT), nth place points, starting with 1st place) then... coin flip.

This is where I'm not clear because BU is in 1st place now, and MC absolutely wins that comparison with a 2-0 record against the Terriers, good for 6 points, whereas Lowell went 1-1 with an OT loss, good for 4 points.

But NU and BU both have two games remaining and don't play each other, so NU could win out in regulation and finish with 52 points, 2 better than MC can conceivably finish with because NU has a game in hand, and if BU only gets 3/6 remaining points, that would put NU in 1st place-- which changes the tiebreakers. MC lost to NU twice this season, for 0 points, but Lowell has already beaten them once for 2 points and their two remaining games are against them. I think the issue is that after Friday, Lowell could not have gotten enough points to trigger a tiebreaker with MC without preventing NU from finishing first and changing the order of tiebreakers?

Saturday's win makes it moot, of course, but I would have liked it if the announcement had included the tiebreaker rundown or at least a link to it someplace.

Either way, congrats to the Warriors! LFG!!!

 

[RENCEB]

SA-WEEEEP!! Tremendous game by Ollas in net, and I thought the team defense was terrific. Slava Demin had an excellent game. Jefferies is an outstanding player. Great speed, really great hands, and it seems like he "thinks" the game really well. He has to be a 1st team Hockey East selection this year. Hope he stays for his Sr. year.
For UML, does Carl Berglund ever come off the ice? Honestly, seemed like he played 25+ minutes.
Merrimack will finish in the top 3 in Hockey East, their best finish ever. There is still an outside chance of getting 1st. BU takes on a tough PC team for 2 games, and NU has a home and home with UML. Take care of last place UVM next week at home, and who knows what could happen.

 

[Sean Pickett]

I also couldn't figure out how they were claiming that home ice was clinched-- after the first win lowell it looked to me like Lowell could still win out, tie with MC, and then be tied for wins and points and tied head to head. I assume they had worked it out, but none of the stories mentioned it, and the league's own tourney page doesn't seem to describe the tiebreakers-- maybe it's just in the media guide.
A website I'm not familiar with, PlayoffStatus.com [http://www.playoffstatus.com/hockeyeast/hockeyeast-tiebreakers.html] claims that the tiebreakers are: head to head, wins (regulation AND OT), nth place points, starting with 1st place) then... coin flip.

The HEA website does have the current tiebreaker procedure:

In the event one or more teams are tied with the same number of points (or points percentage if applicable) at the end of the regular season, seeding for the Hockey East Tournament will be determined according to the following procedures, applied successively until each tie is broken:

1. If only two teams are tied, best head-to-head points percentage. If more than two teams are tied, move to criterion 2.

2. Best regulation winning percentage in all conference games;

3. Greatest number of regulation wins in all conference games (See note below);

4. Best regulation winning percentage against other teams currently included in the tie;

5. Best regulation winning percentage against the highest ranked Hockey East teams, successively, until the tie is broken or all Hockey East regular-season contests have been considered;

6. Greatest goal differential in regulation play against other teams currently included in the tie;

7. Coin flip

In the case of ties among three or more schools, the criteria will be used in order until the top team or teams are separated from the rest. At that point, the process will begin anew to break the “new” tie(s) with all remaining teams. In other words, when a four-way tie becomes a three-way tie, the three-way tie is treated as a “new” tie and the process begins with the first criterion.

​​​​The question is whether or not overtime wins and losses are counted as regulation ties or are ignored. Furthermore, UML could have reached 45 points, while MC would have 44 points if they lost their last game in regulation.

In that event they could have tied with UConn for fourth. MC and UConn split their series in regulation, so they would have gone to criteria #2. If overtime games are treated as regulation ties then MC's regulation record would have been 12-6-6, 0.625 and UConn would be 10-6-8, 0.583, giving MC fourth and quarterfinal home ice. If overtime games are ignored then MC's regulation record would have been 12-6, 0.667 and UConn would be 10-6, 0.625. Again MC would win the tiebreaker.

There also could have been a 3-way tie with UML also at 44 points. For that to happen UML would have finished with the same regulation record as UConn and MC would win the tiebreaker a d get the third seed.

As can be seen, regulation results are now critical for tiebreaking.

Sean

 

[Thiessen'sBetter]

So if I'm reading that right, Northeastern having the head to head tiebreaker over BU and Merrimack would get thrown out if it's a 3 way tie? That's pretty silly

 

[navy44]

So if I'm reading that right, Northeastern having the head to head tiebreaker over BU and Merrimack would get thrown out if it's a 3 way tie? That's pretty silly

It seems you are reading that correctly, and is a perfect case for why the rules should be changed (next year of course) to : 1a. If one of the three teams holds the tie breaker against the other two, that team is declared the conf champ. 1b. if four teams, then the team holding the most tie breakers against the other teams involved in the tie shall be declared the conf champ, or if two teams then they shall be considered for moving onto step 2, etc, etc.

 

[dmjossel]

As can be seen, regulation results are now critical for tiebreaking.

Sean

Which is... interesting, given that the entire incentive for making changes to the old system was to reduce parity, reduce the number of games that went into the books as ties after regulation and a single overtime. So now games are worth three points, you play overtime and a shootout, but when teams are still tied at the end of the season, the important factor for tiebreaking is... regulation wins?

Interesting.

 

[RENCEB]

So if I'm reading that right, Northeastern having the head to head tiebreaker over BU and Merrimack would get thrown out if it's a 3 way tie? That's pretty silly

I agree. However, the likelihood of the a way tie amongst these 3 teams is pretty remote. Mack's max is 50 points. For BU to end up with EXACTLY 50 points, they'd have to lose 1 of their final 2 games, and win the other in OT or a Shootout (or lose both games in OT/Shootout to only gain only 2 points). Not a likely scenario.
For NU to also end up with 50, it is whatever combination of wins and OT wins or losses that gets them to 50.

Saturday night's games will be meaningful for all three teams.

Sean Pickett, thanks for posting the tiebreaker rules.

 

[RENCEB]

Picked 8th in the preseason HE polls and they ended up in 2nd. What a terrific accomplishment for Scott Borek and the Warriors. He's leveraged the transfer portal as well as any other coach in college hockey. Picked up some excellent "veterans", blended them in with returning players and a freshman or 2 and the result has been great.

Hosting a playoff game is unfamiliar territory. I'm sure it will be a great crowd on Saturday night, regardless of who they play. If I've sorted it out correctly, their possible opponents are teams 7 through 10, PC, BC, UMass or UNH. They won the season series from the 1st three, and were 1-1 against UNH. I won't give a preference of opponent as then it becomes "be careful what you wish for".

 

[DNAEagle]

He gets my vote as Coach of the Year, really a surprise, good for him. I think the waiver wire (my term) is not good for college hockey or any college sport for that matter. It is bad enough that we have 20 and 21 year old Freshman now we will have 25 and 26 grad transfers, who leave school as soon as the season ends.

 

[RENCEB]

He gets my vote as Coach of the Year, really a surprise, good for him. I think the waiver wire (my term) is not good for college hockey or any college sport for that matter. It is bad enough that we have 20 and 21 year old Freshman not we will have 25 and 26 grad transfers, who leave school as soon as the season ends.

I agree on both counts (Borek as HE Coach of the Year and that the "waiver wire" is not good for college hockey). I checked Chris Heisenberg's site and it lists 28 recruits for '23 through '25; it looks like he's preparing for when the extra year availability goes away.

 

[BC/HE]

Sorry Merrimack, looks like you lost the lottery. Unless your goalie plays outstanding you could be sitting just outside the PWR come selection day. Don't expect to outshoot BC again as they have finally put together possession hockey. Now if you do manage to get past BC I will be cheering wildly for you in the NCAA's as I do for any Hockey East school.

 

[RENCEB]

Sorry Merrimack, looks like you lost the lottery. Unless your goalie plays outstanding you could be sitting just outside the PWR come selection day. Don't expect to outshoot BC again as they have finally put together possession hockey. Now if you do manage to get past BC I will be cheering wildly for you in the NCAA's as I do for any Hockey East school.

Um, lost the lottery because they ended up against the 8th place team? Just an FYI, Merrimack scored 2 more goals this season in HE play than BC, and gave up 21 fewer goals. I think it is more a question of will Benson play outstanding. Last time I checked, outshooting the opposition doesn't win you the game. True, Gauthier and Nesterenko are outstanding offensive players. Gauthier would be ROY if not for the insane number put up by Hutson. But Merrimack is pretty deep, plays excellent team defense and whether it is Ollas or Borgeil in net, they are both very solid.
Oh, and that Jefferies kid is pretty good too.
ps Will you even cheer for BU in the NCAA's? That would take some doing for a BC fan.