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Iran So Far Away: 2026

Of course.

The United States and Israel’s joint strikes on Iran have sparked political backlash, with critics across the aisle questioning the White House’s unilateral military action.

But attention in Washington is also turning to those profiting from the crisis through prediction‑market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket, where traders are betting on the outcomes of conflict and high‑stakes geopolitical events.

Over the weekend, a Polymarket user known as “Magamyman” reportedly made more than $500,000 in a single day with a bet on US–Israel strikes that Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, would be out of power, raising concerns of insider trading.

Mike Levin, a Democratic representative from California, highlighted on the social media platform X that this user bought in on the position when the probability of a strike was at 17 percent and with the first trade placed 71 minutes before the news broke publicly.

Other users named “Planktonbet,” “Dicedicedice,” and “nothingeverhappens911” also placed bets within 24 hours of the strike on the potential of a US strike, according to data compiled by analytics firm Bubblemap. All accounts were opened in February and exclusively placed bets on Iran.

This echoes past incidents that spooked lawmakers amid concerns of profiteering from war and of potential insider trading.

Those red flags were raised, for instance, when a trader profited from a prediction on former Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro’s abduction hours before it occurred, or another trader made $50,000 prior to opposition leader Maria Corina Machado winning the Nobel Peace Prize.

...

In July 2025, the US Department of Justice dropped its investigation into Polymarket. A month later, the company received backing from 1789 Capital, a venture firm associated with US President Donald Trump’s son, Donald Trump Jr, who also joined Polymarket’s board.

Kalshi, too, has ties to the administration.

In January 2025, Donald Trump Jr joined Kalshi as a strategic adviser. In May, the CFTC withdrew an appeal that had sought to block a federal court decision allowing Kalshi to offer bets on US elections.

Several Kalshi staffers have also joined the Trump administration. Among them is Eliezer Mishory, Kalshi’s former regulatory adviser, who joined the Department of Government Efficiency in April to oversee matters related to the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Samantha Schwab, a former business development staffer at Kalshi, joined the Department of the Treasury as deputy chief of staff.
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"Greater Israel" is insane. 25 years ago it was a joke made by normal Israelies about how nutty the Orthos were.
Now it's actually cited without humor by the ruling party.

The-alarming-details-of-Israels-future-ambitions-860x452.jpg.webp


How did Likud take over Israel? I get the GOP here — we have always had the Tobacco Road cesspool for them to draw upon, like Hitler and the Bavarians. Economic butthurt (from their own backwardness) plus militarism plus Christofascism. Tale as old as time.

But the Israelis were educated and more importantly they were regionally savvy. WTF? Are Benny Gantz and whoever runs Yesh Atid that incompetent? Or are they complicit and this is all just oligarchs bribing pols to milk the treasury and then they get on the last jet to Switzerland, like Schumer et al?
It's going to be fun for us when the Israelis go after a NATO member state. (They have guys making threatening noises about Turkiye now.)

Listen to this week's Foreign Policy Live; it's good. TLDR: Israel and Iran are entirely in charge of the timetable to end this war. We have nothing to say about it and now Dump is in up to his neck with prices exploding. He done fucked up.
 
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bsky.app

Aaron Rupar (@atrupar.com)

Blumenthal: "I have emerged from classified briefings deeply concerned and very fearful that we're on the precipice not only of an escalating conflict that in region, but also putting troops on the ground b/c that is almost inevitably the path the admin has chosen by its current tactical approach"
bsky.app bsky.app

I hear/heard that there is a huge "Religious" slant in our military right now. We are truly in the end times.



According to reports from the
Military Religious Freedom Foundation (MRFF), over 200 service members have reported that some U.S. military commanders are framing the 2026 war on Iran using Christian "end times" rhetoric.
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ScoobyDoo said:
bsky.app

Aaron Rupar (@atrupar.com)

Blumenthal: "I have emerged from classified briefings deeply concerned and very fearful that we're on the precipice not only of an escalating conflict that in region, but also putting troops on the ground b/c that is almost inevitably the path the admin has chosen by its current tactical approach"
bsky.app bsky.app

I hear/heard that there is a huge "Religious" slant in our military right now. We are truly in the end times.
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Do you have me on ignore or something? 🤣
 
aparch said:
So Muslim extremists who fight holy wars are terrorists, but Christian extremists who fight holy wars are the chosen ones?

Yeah, that's not gonna end well for us.
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What makes it funnier is we are fighting the War with the Jews. We all know how these "True" Christians feel about the Jews.
 
The cost of the war already could have fed every child that was hungry in the United States and paid for the Health Care of every American.

But, hey, Iran was going to Nuke us tomorrow.

bsky.app

David Pakman (@davidpakman.bsky.social)

So we “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear program a few months ago…and they were already 2 weeks away from a nuclear weapon? Hmm…
bsky.app bsky.app
 
ScoobyDoo said:
The cost of the war already could have fed every child that was hungry in the United States and paid for the Health Care of every American.

But, hey, Iran was going to Nuke us tomorrow.

bsky.app

David Pakman (@davidpakman.bsky.social)

So we “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear program a few months ago…and they were already 2 weeks away from a nuclear weapon? Hmm…
bsky.app bsky.app
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Man it would suck if they nuked us in two weeks right when Trump finally got around to unveiling his health care plan!
 
French Rage said:
Iranian ship torpedoed off of Sri Lanka was on its way back from multi-nation naval exercises hosted by India (which we participated in too), purposely named for and timed during the Olympics (as part of the Olympic True): https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/iranian-warship-sunk-naval-drills-india-10564869/
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It’s okay. This is the backstory for when the Iranians win gold in ice hockey at the 2038 Olympic Games.

Truly fucking disgusting. We’re the worst country on Earth. Russia’s war with Ukraine makes more sense.
 
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