Ice Breaker Tournament: Clarkson vs. New Hampshire & Mercyhurst vs. Minnesota

[goldy_331]

Re: Ice Breaker Tournament: Clarkson vs. New Hampshire & Mercyhurst vs. Minnesota

Nice job by the 'Cats last night again. I can see why their PK was so good last year (2nd nationally, I think). Very aggressive and very active sticks, Gophers did not get many good looks in 6 PP. Nice to see a close game with a good team where there isn't a scrum and face washes after every whistle.

 

[D2D]

Re: Ice Breaker Tournament: Clarkson vs. New Hampshire & Mercyhurst vs. Minnesota

Nice job by the 'Cats last night again. I can see why their PK was so good last year (2nd nationally, I think). Very aggressive and very active sticks, Gophers did not get many good looks in 6 PP. Nice to see a close game with a good team where there isn't a scrum and face washes after every whistle.

Gophers need to eliminate giving up all those odd-man breaks when on the power play. This has been a problem for several years now. It seems like they get caught way more when they're on the PP than when they're even strength!

 

[HarleyMC]

Re: Ice Breaker Tournament: Clarkson vs. New Hampshire & Mercyhurst vs. Minnesota

Sat. night's game highlights

 

[mnpokecheck]

Re: Ice Breaker Tournament: Clarkson vs. New Hampshire & Mercyhurst vs. Minnesota

Gophers need to eliminate giving up all those odd-man breaks when on the power play. This has been a problem for several years now. It seems like they get caught way more when they're on the PP than when they're even strength!

Isn't this one of those items that every teams fans lament about....

 

[mnstate0fhockey]

Chorske's statement is by definition "anecdotal" at this point in the season. I like what I see so far from this freshman class...but it's too early to make any predictions like that.

I meant that he didn't/doesn't think the idea of this team scoring as many or more goals as last year's squad is as far fetched as you seem to think. And I think you know that.

No one is capable of doing anything other than project the type of year this team/players will have at this point. Especially with so many young kids in the lineup.

 

[D2D]

Re: Ice Breaker Tournament: Clarkson vs. New Hampshire & Mercyhurst vs. Minnesota

No one is capable of doing anything other than project the type of year this team/players will have at this point. Especially with so many young kids in the lineup.

Even Lucia (who sees them every day in practice) has admitted as much.

 

[mnstate0fhockey]

Even Lucia (who sees them every day in practice) has admitted as much.

Indeed. It's fun to speculate, and I admit I find myself getting a little prematurely excited about the potential, but it's early and there is a lot of season left. Couldn't ask for a better start though, all things considered

 

[Golden Tuuk]

Sat. night's game highlights

Thanks a lot. That's the first I've seen of this years team.

 

[HarleyMC]

Re: Ice Breaker Tournament: Clarkson vs. New Hampshire & Mercyhurst vs. Minnesota

I meant that he didn't/doesn't think the idea of this team scoring as many or more goals as last year's squad is as far fetched as you seem to think. And I think you know that.

No one is capable of doing anything other than project the type of year this team/players will have at this point. Especially with so many young kids in the lineup.

You originally quoted him as saying, "more points" not "as many or more goals": "He said on the broadcast last night that he thinks this squad could put up more points than last years squad". Which one is it?

I never stated "this squad or this team" equaling or surpassing last season's scoring total was "far fetched", I was only referring to the freshmen. My earlier statement that you've been continually referring to: "To expect freshmen to replace a near 50% scoring loss from guys like Bjugs, Haula, Schmidt, and Budish from last season is anecdotal at best" is statistically accurate and is in regards to the FRESHMAN CLASS ONLY, NOT the entire team as suggested in whatever you thought Chorske actually said.

I think it's reasonable to assume considering the youth and inexperience of this year's team and the past scoring trends of current veteran players like Rau, Condon, Warning, Ambroz, Boyd, etc. that equaling last season's totals won't happen. However, it's too early to make an assessment with any valid and reliable predictability. My outlook this early in the season is conservative and based upon a large sampling of past freshman and veteran season performances.

But just for fun, let’s take a closer look at the scoring void created by recent departures and speculate on what it will take for ONLY the FRESHMEN class to cancel out those scoring losses and EQUAL last season’s team point totals:

Scoring losses from 2012-13:

Haula (F): 16-35-51
Bjugstad (F): 21-15-36
Budish (F): 14-22-36
Schmidt (D): 9-23-32
Alt (D): 0-7-7
Helgeson (D): 0-5-5

*Forward loss totals: 51-72-123
*Defense loss totals: 9-35-44

TOTAL SCORING LOSSES: 60-107-167

2013-14 Freshman Forwards

Hudson Fasching
Justin Kloos
Vinni Lettieri
Taylor Cammarata
Connor Reilly

2013-14 Freshman Defense

Michael Brodzinski
Jake Bischoff

Let’s assume Brodzinski and Bischoff absorb the scoring loss on D and speculate their combined season effort yields a generous estimate of 44 pts. total. Let’s also assume all veteran players log similar numbers to last season (not an entirely unreasonable assumption based upon their past season performances), leaving 123 pts. in scoring losses to be absorbed by 5 freshman forwards this season to EQUAL last season’s team pt. totals.

Therefore, each of the 5 frosh F will need to finish the current season with an avg. of approximately 25 pts.

How often has a Gopher freshman logged such a season point total? In the last 10 seasons only 9 Gopher freshman “elite” have either come close or exceeded 25 pts and in the past 6 seasons ONLY 3:

2011-12 Kyle Rau (18-25-43)
2010-11 Erik Haula (6-18-24)
2008-09 Jordan Schroeder (13-32-45)
2006-07 Jay Barriball (20-23-43), Kyle Okposo (19-21-40), Erik Johnson (4-20-24)
2005-06 Phil Kessel (18-33-51), Ryan Stoa (10-15-25), Blake Wheeler (9-12-23)

Just based on the past 6 seasons, the odds of ONLY 1 Freshman having 25 pts. this season is less than 2%. IMO for the Gophers to come close to last season’s totals, several of the veteran players like Rau, Condon, Boyd, Ambroz, M. Reilly, Ben Marshall, etc. will need breakout seasons and the freshman class must be absolutely exceptional and off the charts.

 

[mnstate0fhockey]

You originally quoted him as saying, "more points" not "as many or more goals": "He said on the broadcast last night that he thinks this squad could put up more points than last years squad". Which one is it?

I never stated "this squad or this team" equaling or surpassing last season's scoring total was "far fetched", I was only referring to the freshmen. My earlier statement that you've been continually referring to: "To expect freshmen to replace a near 50% scoring loss from guys like Bjugs, Haula, Schmidt, and Budish from last season is anecdotal at best" is statistically accurate and is in regards to the FRESHMAN CLASS ONLY, NOT the entire team as suggested in whatever you thought Chorske actually said.

I think it's reasonable to assume considering the youth and inexperience of this year's team and the past scoring trends of current veteran players like Rau, Condon, Warning, Ambroz, Boyd, etc. that equaling last season's totals won't happen. However, it's too early to make an assessment with any valid and reliable predictability. My outlook this early in the season is conservative and based upon a large sampling of past freshman and veteran season performances.

But just for fun, let’s take a closer look at the scoring void created by recent departures and speculate on what it will take for ONLY the FRESHMEN class to cancel out those scoring losses and EQUAL last season’s team point totals:

Scoring losses from 2012-13:

Haula (F): 16-35-51
Bjugstad (F): 21-15-36
Budish (F): 14-22-36
Schmidt (D): 9-23-32
Alt (D): 0-7-7
Helgeson (D): 0-5-5

*Forward loss totals: 51-72-123
*Defense loss totals: 9-35-44

TOTAL SCORING LOSSES: 60-107-167

2013-14 Freshman Forwards

Hudson Fasching
Justin Kloos
Vinni Lettieri
Taylor Cammarata
Connor Reilly

2013-14 Freshman Defense

Michael Brodzinski
Jake Bischoff

Let’s assume Brodzinski and Bischoff absorb the scoring loss on D and speculate their combined season effort yields a generous estimate of 44 pts. total. Let’s also assume all veteran players log similar numbers to last season (not an entirely unreasonable assumption based upon their past season performances), leaving 123 pts. in scoring losses to be absorbed by 5 freshman forwards this season to EQUAL last season’s team pt. totals.

Therefore, each of the 5 frosh F will need to finish the current season with an avg. of approximately 25 pts.

How often has a Gopher freshman logged such a season point total? In the last 10 seasons only 9 Gopher freshman “elite” have either come close or exceeded 25 pts and in the past 6 seasons ONLY 3:

2011-12 Kyle Rau (18-25-43)
2010-11 Erik Haula (6-18-24)
2008-09 Jordan Schroeder (13-32-45)
2006-07 Jay Barriball (20-23-43), Kyle Okposo (19-21-40), Erik Johnson (4-20-24)
2005-06 Phil Kessel (18-33-51), Ryan Stoa (10-15-25), Blake Wheeler (9-12-23)

Just based on the past 6 seasons, the odds of ONLY 1 Freshman having 25 pts. this season is less than 2%. IMO for the Gophers to come close to last season’s totals, several of the veteran players like Rau, Condon, Boyd, Ambroz, M. Reilly, Ben Marshall, etc. will need breakout seasons and the freshman class must be absolutely exceptional and off the charts.

I'll take the bet that at least one of our freshmen get to 25 pts this season. In fact, I'll take the bet that at least two do.

And I already posted a link to my thoughts on replacing scoring (including the numbers I think the freshmen will put up) in my <a href="http://www.mnhockeycentral.com/gophers">season preview</a>. I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree.

 

[Bonin21]

Re: Ice Breaker Tournament: Clarkson vs. New Hampshire & Mercyhurst vs. Minnesota

Let’s assume Brodzinski and Bischoff absorb the scoring loss on D and speculate their combined season effort yields a generous estimate of 44 pts. total.

If this happens, I'll give you an internet dollar.

 

[HarleyMC]

Re: Ice Breaker Tournament: Clarkson vs. New Hampshire & Mercyhurst vs. Minnesota

I'll take the bet that at least one of our freshmen get to 25 pts this season. In fact, I'll take the bet that at least two do.

And I already posted a link to my thoughts on replacing scoring (including the numbers I think the freshmen will put up) in my <a href="http://www.mnhockeycentral.com/gophers">season preview</a>. I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree.

I never bet against the Gophers doing the impossible under any circumstances. I took a look at your blog. This isn't a slam on you personally, but your analysis is not based upon critical inferential statistical principles and is essentially invalid.

If this happens, I'll give you an internet dollar.

High roller heh? You must be one of those guys that goes to a casino just to watch. Don't hold your breath, it's highly unlikely.

 

[mnstate0fhockey]

I never bet against the Gophers doing the impossible under any circumstances. I took a look at your blog. This isn't a slam on you personally, but your analysis is not based upon critical inferential statistical principles and is essentially invalid.

Not a slam on you personally, but I think the analysis is as "valid" as anything you've offered. And that's admitting that my opinions are nothing but speculation.

 

[HarleyMC]

Re: Ice Breaker Tournament: Clarkson vs. New Hampshire & Mercyhurst vs. Minnesota

Not a slam on you personally, but I think the analysis is as "valid" as anything you've offered. And that's admitting that my opinions are nothing but wild speculation.

I haven't offered anything here that even remotely represents inferential statistical analysis or "projections" as you have in your blog. Trust me, you're in over your head...you can't perform statistical analysis in the way you've done so in your blog, even if it's just speculation...it's statistical rubbish. Freshman putting up more points than Bjugs, Budish, and Schmidt last season? FYP.

 

[mnstate0fhockey]

I haven't offered anything here...

Exactly, you haven't really offered much of anything of substance. As for the rest of your post..... Blah, blah, blah.

We can agree to disagree. This discussion became a bore long ago. We'll see where this team ends up, then we can compare notes. Until then, it's all just speculation.

And FYI - I didn't predict that either of the freshman defenders would put up as many points as Schmidt did last season. Guess you didn't "read" what I wrote that closely

 

[HarleyMC]

Re: Ice Breaker Tournament: Clarkson vs. New Hampshire & Mercyhurst vs. Minnesota

Exactly, you haven't really offered much of anything of substance. As for the rest of your post..... Blah, blah, blah.

We can agree to disagree. This discussion became a bore long ago. We'll see where this team ends up, then we can compare notes. Until then, it's all just speculation.

Very mature answer... What are you a "B" cup now?

 

[mnstate0fhockey]

Very mature and intelligent answer... What are you a "B" cup now?

Wish I could say the same for your response.

 

[mnstate0fhockey]

Re: Ice Breaker Tournament: Clarkson vs. New Hampshire & Mercyhurst vs. Minnesota

I have Brodzinski leading freshman defensemen with 6 pts and only two freshman forwards breaking 30 pts.

<a href="http://i.imgur.com/Vknr1OM.jpg?1">Predicted stats</a>

You keep talking about the freshman replacing the stats Bjugstad, Haula (you forgot to list our points leader from last year), Budish, and Scmidt put up last year, but what you fail to consider is that one of these freshmen defenders will also be replacing Mark Alt and/or Seth Helgeson who put up pretty pedestrian numbers last season. Won't be nearly as difficult to improve on those with the talent we are brining in. I predicted neither freshmen defender will fully replace the points Schmidt put up.

As for freshmen putting up 30+ points, take a look at the list of past freshmen you listed and compare what the ones who didn't do so well their freshmen seasons did in juniors and compare that to what some of our incoming freshmen did. Take a look at shooting % of some of the incoming freshmen forwards. Both Lettieri and Guertler scored on a pretty high percentage of their shots. It's also no fluke that Cammarata has put up huge numbers at every level he's played.

I think we'll see a freshmen defender put up 10-15 pts this year (though I predicted both will have less above) because I think they have the talent and will get the minutes. I also think we'll see a few of our freshmen forwards put up 30+ pts this season as I think they have the talent, experience in juniors, and will get special teams opportunity. You apparently disagree, which is fine. We'll see at the end of the season.

 

[burd]

Re: Ice Breaker Tournament: Clarkson vs. New Hampshire & Mercyhurst vs. Minnesota

I have Brodzinski leading freshman defensemen with 6 pts and only two freshman forwards breaking 30 pts.

<a href="http://i.imgur.com/Vknr1OM.jpg?1">Predicted stats</a>

You keep talking about the freshman replacing the stats Bjugstad, Haula (you forgot to list our points leader from last year), Budish, and Scmidt, but what you fail to consider is that one of these freshmen defenders will also be replacing Mark Alt and/or Seth Helgeson who put up pretty pedestrian numbers last season. Won't be nearly as difficult to improve on those with the talent we are brining in. I predicted neither freshmen defender will fully replace the points Schmidt put up.

As for freshmen putting up 30+ points, take a look at the list of past freshmen you listed and compare what the ones who didn't do so well their freshmen seasons did in juniors and compare that to what some of our incoming freshmen did. Take a look at shooting % of some of the incoming freshmen forwards. Both Lettieri and Guertler scored on a pretty high percentage of their shots. It's also no fluke that Cammarata has put up huge numbers at every level he's played.

I think we'll see a freshmen defender put up 10-15 pts this year (though I predicted both will have less above) because I think they have the talent and will get the minutes. I also think we'll see a few of our freshmen forwards put up 30+ pts this season as I think they have the talent, experience in juniors, and will get special teams opportunity. You apparently disagree, which is fine. We'll see at the end of the season.

Do you anticipate any change in scoring based on the change in the teams they will be playing the most this year?

 

[mnstate0fhockey]

Do you anticipate any change in scoring based on the change in the teams they will be playing the most this year?

That's a great question. I took a look at the schedule to try and project wins and losses (very informally), but didn't really factor the schedule into projecting stats. Might be fun to do if I get the time. I'm guessing the answer to that question will probably be yes.