--- Home Lock - 38 (UMA/UML) ---
--- In - 34 (NU) ---
UNH 27 - 45 [1-9]
UMA 22 - 38 [1-10]
BC 22 - 40 [1-10]
ME 20 - 40 [1-10]
UML 18 - 38 [1-10]
BU 16 - 34 [1-10]
NU 15 - 33 [1-10]
UVM 15 - 35 [1-10]
MC 12 - 34 [1-10]
PC 9 - 27 [2-10]
--- Home Eligible - 22 (ME/UML/BU) ---
--- Out - 15 (NU/UVM) ---
Remaining LEAGUE schedules:
UNH - @MEx2, PC, UVMx2, @NU/NU, BC/@BC
UMA - BC, NU/@NU, @MC/MC, @BC, @MEx2
BC - @UMA, @UML/UML, @NU/NU, MC, UMA, @UNH/UNH
ME – UNHx2, @BUx2, UMLx2, @MCx2, UMAx2
UML - BU, @MC, BC/@BC, @MEx2, PC/@PC, UVMx2
BU - @UML, MEx2, @PC/PC, @UVMx2, NU/@NU
NU - @MC, @UMA/UMA, BC/@BC, UNH/@UNH, @BU/BU
UVM - @PCx2, MCx2, @UNHx2, BUx2, @UMLx2
MC - NU, UML, @UVMx2, UMA/@UMA, @BC, MEx2, @PC/PC
PC – UVMx2, @UNH, BU/@BU, @UML/UML, MC/@MC
So that was the kickoff to last year's thread. A lot of where we are now is similar, but this year, it is PC that can no longer pass UNH as of last weekend (they can tie, but UNH has the H2H tb, and it's too far out to do the math on multi-team tbs that will likely be irrelevant by next weekend). Instead of being three points up, as they were two years ago, this year's kickoff post has UNH up by five.
One thing of note this year that is unusual is that with the standings so close, but so many variations in the games in hand, we have a lot of counterintuitive cross-overs between points in the bank (minimums) and points available (maximums). For example, MC is in 9th with 12 points, but they have the same max as 6th place BU (34) and actually have a higher max than tied-for-7th NU (33), which is why NU sets the "In" benchmark for the moment. Similarly, 4th place Maine has a higher max (40)than tied-for-2nd UMA (38). Much of that should disappear after this weekend's irregular Beanpot-accommodating schedule wraps up.
Explanatory notes:
For those that haven't read one of these threads before, I'm basically following a couple of key benchmarks and comparing each team's min and max points to see where they might fall. As results come in, the benchmarks themselves change and the teams above or below them change.
The keys are:
"In" - what point threshold needs to be reached to guarantee a playoff spot (can't fall to 9th or 10th).
"Home Eligible" - can still reach home ice (4th seed),
"Home Lock" - can't fall below 4th,
"Home Ice" - once the top four spots are settled,
and "Out" - can no longer reach 8th.
If you're below a line, your minimum (points already earned) has not yet reached that benchmark, or in the case of "Out", cannot. If you are above a line, your maximum keeps you in play. At this point, no one is yet In or, of course, locked up Home Ice. Conversely, no one is yet Out and everyone is still Home Eligible.
As results come in, In and Out will draw closer together and, at some point, merge once the top eight (or bottom two) are set in stone. The same is true of Home Eligible and Home Lock, which will merge into Home Ice once the top four are set.
Here's an example of how this works:
With a variable number of games remaining on the schedule for each team, the two lowest maximums are 27 (PC) and 33 (NU), then 34 points puts you in the playoffs. That puts the "In" benchmark at 34 (the last two years used 32 at this point). As the teams at the bottom fail to get points, their maximum falls, and the benchmark drops with it. If NU wins, but MC, BU and/or UVM (34, 34, 35 max, respectively) don't, once their maxes cross over, the benchmark moves over to the lower maximum, as those are points that team can no longer get. At the same time, as teams win, their minimum will increase, as those points are already in the bank.
If PC gets swept this weekend, that would put their max at 23 (9 pts earned with 7 games – or 14 points – left undetermined). With BC and UMA facing off on Friday and both teams at 22 going in, that would put at least one of those teams out of reach of PC even if PC won every remaining game. Since both BC and UMA own the tie-breaker over PC, a UMA/BC tie would put both teams at 23 and unpassable by PC. Since Maine (20 pts) also has the tb w/ PC, taking 3+ points this weekend would also put them ahead of a swept PC, meaning that PC would no longer be eligible for Home Ice and would drop below the Home Eligible line.
With this many games to go, I haven't factored in the remaining schedule to the benchmarks and maximum points too deeply yet. ME, BU and UML all play each other in every combination (each plays the other two), so even though Maine only has 20, the Home Eligible mark is 22 because of the schedule among those three meaning that at least one of them has to hit that mark. However, the bottom five still have to play each other quite a bit, and I did not factor in that interaction into the other benchmarks. When the permutations are fewer and those fine points become more relevant, I'm sure they'll get added in either by myself or fellow posters.
--- In - 34 (NU) ---
UNH 27 - 45 [1-9]
UMA 22 - 38 [1-10]
BC 22 - 40 [1-10]
ME 20 - 40 [1-10]
UML 18 - 38 [1-10]
BU 16 - 34 [1-10]
NU 15 - 33 [1-10]
UVM 15 - 35 [1-10]
MC 12 - 34 [1-10]
PC 9 - 27 [2-10]
--- Home Eligible - 22 (ME/UML/BU) ---
--- Out - 15 (NU/UVM) ---
Remaining LEAGUE schedules:
UNH - @MEx2, PC, UVMx2, @NU/NU, BC/@BC
UMA - BC, NU/@NU, @MC/MC, @BC, @MEx2
BC - @UMA, @UML/UML, @NU/NU, MC, UMA, @UNH/UNH
ME – UNHx2, @BUx2, UMLx2, @MCx2, UMAx2
UML - BU, @MC, BC/@BC, @MEx2, PC/@PC, UVMx2
BU - @UML, MEx2, @PC/PC, @UVMx2, NU/@NU
NU - @MC, @UMA/UMA, BC/@BC, UNH/@UNH, @BU/BU
UVM - @PCx2, MCx2, @UNHx2, BUx2, @UMLx2
MC - NU, UML, @UVMx2, UMA/@UMA, @BC, MEx2, @PC/PC
PC – UVMx2, @UNH, BU/@BU, @UML/UML, MC/@MC
Todd said:
So that was the kickoff to last year's thread. A lot of where we are now is similar, but this year, it is PC that can no longer pass UNH as of last weekend (they can tie, but UNH has the H2H tb, and it's too far out to do the math on multi-team tbs that will likely be irrelevant by next weekend). Instead of being three points up, as they were two years ago, this year's kickoff post has UNH up by five.
One thing of note this year that is unusual is that with the standings so close, but so many variations in the games in hand, we have a lot of counterintuitive cross-overs between points in the bank (minimums) and points available (maximums). For example, MC is in 9th with 12 points, but they have the same max as 6th place BU (34) and actually have a higher max than tied-for-7th NU (33), which is why NU sets the "In" benchmark for the moment. Similarly, 4th place Maine has a higher max (40)than tied-for-2nd UMA (38). Much of that should disappear after this weekend's irregular Beanpot-accommodating schedule wraps up.
Explanatory notes:
For those that haven't read one of these threads before, I'm basically following a couple of key benchmarks and comparing each team's min and max points to see where they might fall. As results come in, the benchmarks themselves change and the teams above or below them change.
The keys are:
"In" - what point threshold needs to be reached to guarantee a playoff spot (can't fall to 9th or 10th).
"Home Eligible" - can still reach home ice (4th seed),
"Home Lock" - can't fall below 4th,
"Home Ice" - once the top four spots are settled,
and "Out" - can no longer reach 8th.
If you're below a line, your minimum (points already earned) has not yet reached that benchmark, or in the case of "Out", cannot. If you are above a line, your maximum keeps you in play. At this point, no one is yet In or, of course, locked up Home Ice. Conversely, no one is yet Out and everyone is still Home Eligible.
As results come in, In and Out will draw closer together and, at some point, merge once the top eight (or bottom two) are set in stone. The same is true of Home Eligible and Home Lock, which will merge into Home Ice once the top four are set.
Here's an example of how this works:
With a variable number of games remaining on the schedule for each team, the two lowest maximums are 27 (PC) and 33 (NU), then 34 points puts you in the playoffs. That puts the "In" benchmark at 34 (the last two years used 32 at this point). As the teams at the bottom fail to get points, their maximum falls, and the benchmark drops with it. If NU wins, but MC, BU and/or UVM (34, 34, 35 max, respectively) don't, once their maxes cross over, the benchmark moves over to the lower maximum, as those are points that team can no longer get. At the same time, as teams win, their minimum will increase, as those points are already in the bank.
If PC gets swept this weekend, that would put their max at 23 (9 pts earned with 7 games – or 14 points – left undetermined). With BC and UMA facing off on Friday and both teams at 22 going in, that would put at least one of those teams out of reach of PC even if PC won every remaining game. Since both BC and UMA own the tie-breaker over PC, a UMA/BC tie would put both teams at 23 and unpassable by PC. Since Maine (20 pts) also has the tb w/ PC, taking 3+ points this weekend would also put them ahead of a swept PC, meaning that PC would no longer be eligible for Home Ice and would drop below the Home Eligible line.
With this many games to go, I haven't factored in the remaining schedule to the benchmarks and maximum points too deeply yet. ME, BU and UML all play each other in every combination (each plays the other two), so even though Maine only has 20, the Home Eligible mark is 22 because of the schedule among those three meaning that at least one of them has to hit that mark. However, the bottom five still have to play each other quite a bit, and I did not factor in that interaction into the other benchmarks. When the permutations are fewer and those fine points become more relevant, I'm sure they'll get added in either by myself or fellow posters.
