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Hey Massachusetts! Coakley or Brown?

Re: Hey Massachusetts! Coakley or Brown?

SPIN CONTROL said:
Depends on who is turning out. The one scenario where a high turnout could favor Brown is whether the Independants turn out in droves. Independants represent just over 50% of all registered voters and according to the latest polls are favoring Brown at about a 3 to 1 clip.

:eek:
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But 1 D vote = 3 I votes = .5 R votes
 
Re: Hey Massachusetts! Coakley or Brown?

SteveF said:
if all people shouldnt be covered because it costs too much, then medicaid should be abolished.
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Would you say the same thing about food stamps, or Toys for Tots? Different programs, same principle. Their intent is for needy people.
 
Re: Hey Massachusetts! Coakley or Brown?

geezer said:
I was a bit surprised today to see Zogby call it for Coakley, what with recent polls showing Brown ahead.
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"" 1/19/10

Massachusetts: When a Hunch Is Not a Poll

by John Zogby

You all know the story of the seven blind men and the elephant. It all depends what you feel and how you sense it. I have seen some blogs following my discussion on Sean Hannity’s Radio Show yesterday (January 18, linked above) where he asked what I “think” is going to happen in Massachusetts. I told him I didn’t know. I don’t think that the polls that are out have gotten to measure the full impact of President’s visit. But I also think that the Democrats have a better get-out-the-vote operation. There are lots of variables but at the moment I thought Martha Coakley “might win” by less than a point.

That, my friends, is a hunch. I have not polled Massachusetts on this race and I have stated that Coakley has run an arrogant, aloof campaign – while Scott Brown has defied expectations.

In the full interests of truth: I have no idea what is going to happen. Actually no one does. Some have data that suggests – that often enough has been me. Others have no data and still suggest. This time that is me.

I am so proud of my record over the years. I am so gratified that so many people care what I think. But this particular time it is based on a hunch. We will see.""
 
Re: Hey Massachusetts! Coakley or Brown?

geezer said:
I was a bit surprised today to see Zogby call it for Coakley, what with recent polls showing Brown ahead.
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As he's usually wrong, that doesn't make me feel good. :eek:

Nate Silver brought up an interesting point on his blog, which was there tends to be a pack mentality in polling. As in, if one pollster has a certain result, the others may start tweaking their likely voter models according to that breakdown. Now that won't give the exact same results obviously, but it could lead to the convergence of polls around a certain %.

If anybody is interested in my impression so far (and from some of the posters out here, you are ;) ) I'd say the level of turnout is surprising a lot of people especially because of the weather, and IMHO its due to some grudging Democratic support coming out and voting for Obama, not for Coakley necessarily. That's making the race closer than this weekend's polling suggested. What I think is going on is that Brown is turning out just about everybody with any inclination to vote for him, which in Massachusetts has a limited ceiling as to how many votes he can squeeze out of that. I get the sense that his campaign would be putting out teasers at this point if they weren't still in wait and see mode. There was one earlier in the day, about how turnout in Boston itself was low, but that has subsequently picked up according to official reports. If turnout is going up in these places because of Brown supporters, then he'll win by 15 points. I'll close with the thought that its a bit curious he took today off from campaigning.
 
Re: Hey Massachusetts! Coakley or Brown?

Rover said:
..... There was one earlier in the day, about how turnout in Boston itself was low, but that has subsequently picked up according to official reports. If turnout is going up in these places because of Brown supporters, then he'll win by 15 points. I'll close with the thought that its a bit curious he took today off from campaigning.
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people with jobs leaving work and voting = bad for democrats. ('cept of course here in moonbat mass :p )
 
Re: Hey Massachusetts! Coakley or Brown?

They are talking upper 30s low 40s% turnout right now
 
Re: Hey Massachusetts! Coakley or Brown?

Jon said:
Howie Carr is that you?
(Oh wait, you aren't an untalented ****bag who uses the word "hack" like he was the literary Freddy Meyer.)
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Howie must be having a blast right now
 
Re: Hey Massachusetts! Coakley or Brown?

I think Murray was right.

About Army and this thread...
 
Re: Hey Massachusetts! Coakley or Brown?

Uber Democratic campaign consultant Bob Shrum, appearing on MSNBC's "Mr. Ed Show," moments ago made reference to "what's probably going to happen tonight," in predicting a Brown win.
 
Re: Hey Massachusetts! Coakley or Brown?

Old Pio said:
Uber Democratic campaign consultant Bob Shrum, appearing on MSNBC's "Mr. Ed Show," moments ago made reference to "what's probably going to happen tonight," in predicting a Brown win.
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they are just setting the bar low so that when she wins they can exclaim a resounding victory for all things obama :rolleyes:
 
Re: Hey Massachusetts! Coakley or Brown?

wow!

chris matthews wants to get the '12 GOP nomination to scott brown :eek: :eek: :eek:
 
Re: Hey Massachusetts! Coakley or Brown?

I still think Martha wins this by 1-2%. The commonwealth is so blue it is disgusting. Only the peoples' disgust with the politics as usual is going to upset the apple cart.

So, how upset are they?
 
Re: Hey Massachusetts! Coakley or Brown?

mookie1995 said:
they are just setting the bar low so that when she wins they can exclaim a resounding victory for all things obama :rolleyes:
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ha, had the same thought .... it is all a big act, including controlling the pollsters to setup the big rally due to BHO's influence...waggin' the dog;)
 
Re: Hey Massachusetts! Coakley or Brown?

Olbermann, with his best "the end of the world is nigh" face, opens his program quoting an unnamed Democratic congressman: "It doesn't look good." :D
 
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