Re: Hey Massachusetts! Coakley or Brown?
Lots of previously repressed feelings on this thread.
My thoughts:
1) As has been mentioned, an "enthusiasm" vs "turnout" election. From early reports turnout is pretty good. The problem with this election is that there's no reliable indicators to interpret the results. Who does high or low turnout favor? What areas should be expect to vote heavily, etc. One of the oddest races I've seen, even ones where the Republican candidate (Romney for example) won.
2) Coakley's problem is the same that Mass Dems for governor face, which is that when you come up in state politics the action is always in the primaries for those lower offices, so its a run to the left. If faces with an argument from the other side of the aisle, they often have trouble because its new to them (and their campaign managers).
3) Two unappealing candidates to be sure. Coakley has run a rose garden campaign, which is disasterous. Reminds me of Dukakis in '88, don't do anything and figure the voters will come to you. Never took the time to define herself, allowing her opponents to define her. Scott Brown's candidacy apparently revolves around having a daughter who lost in a preliminary round of American Idol and a vague promise to oppose everything but propose nothing. In that regard this is like the Cellucci-Harshbarger race.
4) Whatver the result, and hopefully its a close scare instead of a crushing defeat, there needs to be several lessons taken out of this for my fellow Dems. First, act like you want the office, not expecting it to be handed to you. Next, for Obama/Congress start getting things done quickly. Health care dragged on for too long. Finally, start defining issues and explaining yourself. If you don't, your opponents will. Right now they're in a sorta prevent defense, which as we all know prevents you from winning.
Oh, one more thing. Its well known that Curt Schilling is a dope. We're all thankful for the 2004 World Series but really, the guy's an idiot. For all the talk about what will decide this race, this angle has to be the most absurd.