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Grand unified 2020 election thread

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state of hockey said:
This was certainly the case in Wisconsin. Milwaukee county was done reporting and Biden’s lead was about 7-8 thousand? Wound up taking it by 21 k.

AZ is a different story though. They’ve been voting by mail or drop off for a while, republicans take advantage of it too.
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Yep. But I will take the Pennsylvania for Arizona swap. ;^)

Pennsylvania now definitely looks like Michigan did when I went to bed last night. When I woke up a few hours later Michigan was right where a lot of us were predicting. That doesn't mean Penn will go the same but the trends are looking really good. I mean with the amount of votes outstanding based on dx's last spreadsheet here there is over 800k votes left and the margin is 164k. I mean if Biden beats a 60/40 spread he covers it based on my "I Hate Math And My Brain Is Fried" calculations. (i.e. I am probably off) Considering he will likely get in the 70s in the Alleghany and Philadelphia I would say the odds are quite good. And if that is the case none of the rest of this noise matters.
 
Arizona numbers are in...62k counted.

912,585 for Biden (total)
838,071 for Trump (total

4 point spread for Biden in Maricopa. 51-47 Biden

Spread in Maricopa is now within 79k votes.
 
That last batch was on track but as they have already said every batch is a completely different river drawn from.

So we really learned nothing.
 
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Jimjamesak said:
That’s an increase for Biden?
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No he was at 88k in Maricopa.

The state number is 69k now.

John King's Understudy finally mentions there is outstanding votes in Pima and Flagstaff which is going to offset some of this anyways because Biden is polling around 60% there.

Barry Enten (sp?) seems bearish on Trump making up the votes in Maricopa.
 
So we just had a 4 person panel where 2 were smart, and now we have 3 people and another reporter with maps and 2 of them are smart.

4 of 8 people on teevee being smart is at least 400% higher than the usual rate.

I'm going to bed.
 
Kepler said:
That was a 10k decrease out of 70k, which is a big Dump gain. But nothing says the rest of the tranches will be anything like that.
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It really wasnt. It was a nice gain but it was the minimum percentage he needed to hit basically. Its on track to have a shot but I was honestly expecting it to be bigger.

BTW you are wrong in your calculations mocking CNN lady...it wasnt "170" it was "76" or something similar.
 
Harry bugs me for some reason, but he is clearly smart and knows what he is talking about. He seems per certain that Trump won’t continue this pace as they move into drop off votes instead of late mail in.
 
state of hockey said:
Harry bugs me for some reason, but he is clearly smart and knows what he is talking about. He seems per certain that Trump won’t continue this pace as they move into drop off votes instead of late mail in.
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I know what it is for me...but I wont say it in polite company ;^)

He does know his stuff and I am just hard on him because he was underestimating the absentees in Milwaukee County and was being very snooty about it. (or I took it that way) Once he saw the trends he was very quick to see what was going on and changed his tune on all of it. I saw it almost in real time when Biden took the lead. I think he is right about how Maricopa will finish...but I also think it wont matter as much when the other votes in the state come back (which is still a significant number) as those are stronger Dem areas.

Then again I dont think it will matter. I think Nate Cohn was right and Biden takes Pennsylvania by 2%.

Ok time for bed. Night SOH!
 
Handyman said:
Yep. But I will take the Pennsylvania for Arizona swap. ;^)

Pennsylvania now definitely looks like Michigan did when I went to bed last night. When I woke up a few hours later Michigan was right where a lot of us were predicting. That doesn't mean Penn will go the same but the trends are looking really good. I mean with the amount of votes outstanding based on dx's last spreadsheet here there is over 800k votes left and the margin is 164k. I mean if Biden beats a 60/40 spread he covers it based on my "I Hate Math And My Brain Is Fried" calculations. (i.e. I am probably off) Considering he will likely get in the 70s in the Alleghany and Philadelphia I would say the odds are quite good. And if that is the case none of the rest of this noise matters.
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Dude!!!! It is annoying enough when people say “I mean” verbally—- but in writing?!?!? (Smiley face smiley face smiley face)
 
I'd like to point out to "conservatives" that a vote is conceived before it is put into the return-by-mail envelope, so it would be wrong to kill a vote before it was counted...

#ProCounting

;-)
 
alfablue said:
Here's a real conspiracy- dumpy told his worshipers to mail in AND vote in person. I wonder if recounts will find many of those attempting to double count.

And since I'm not reading every single page of this thread- https://upnorthlive.com/news/local/...ew-ballots-following-report-of-skewed-results

And the news this morning are reporting that the count does not match the paper. So they are re-counting by hand, and it should switch the balance from a dumpy lead in the county to a Vice President Biden lead.

Which says that a recount may increase the Biden lead in Michigan.
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The problem in Antrim was that it was showing Biden by +20 something, which would’ve been like a 57 point swing from 2016. It looked like the numbers were just flipped and that they only needed to reupload the data, but it’s interesting they’re doing a full recount.
 
We still on pace to win? According to 538, Biden down 164k in Pa. 116k ballots left in Philly, 460k overall. Been 90-10 Biden in Philly. Assuming it stays that, we still need 71k from the other ballots. That sounds a little more daunting, and that Pa will be closer than last night’s trend.
 
psych said:
We still on pace to win? According to 538, Biden down 164k in Pa. 116k ballots left in Philly, 460k overall. Been 90-10 Biden in Philly. Assuming it stays that, we still need 71k from the other ballots. That sounds a little more daunting, and that Pa will be closer than last night’s trend.
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It could go either way. I think Biden has Nevada. He needs one more. Arizona, PA, or Georgia. All are possible. But, it's also possible that fuck nuts sweeps those 3 and we're left standing out in the cold with no masks and 100's of mouth breathers breathing on us.
 
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