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Global War on Terror Version 7 - The Nightmare that Threatens the World!!!

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Re: Global War on Terror Version 7 - The Nightmare that Threatens the World!!!

Iran's need to make a deal is a result of the sanctions. As North Korea found out, having nukes does you no good if you don't have food, money, or anything else but the nukes in your country. They can purchase missiles all day but at some point you have to get out of a defensive posture and join the rest of the world if your population demands it. Having nukes does nothing for Iranian security. They're under no threat of invasion and if they behave the chances of air strikes against the country are minimized (maybe Israel goes it alone but Netanyahu seems more interested in using other countries to launch strikes instead of his own military).
 
Re: Global War on Terror Version 7 - The Nightmare that Threatens the World!!!

Having nukes does nothing for Iranian security. They're under no threat of invasion

I'd say it's just the opposite. I think Iran wants nukes as a deterrent to an Israeli missile strike or an American (or Russian, for that matter) invasion.
 
Re: Global War on Terror Version 7 - The Nightmare that Threatens the World!!!

I'd say it's just the opposite. I think Iran wants nukes as a deterrent to an Israeli missile strike or an American (or Russian, for that matter) invasion.

There's no actual threat of an American or Russian invasion though. The US is through invading new countries for a long time as we're still trying to clean up the ones we're already in. Russia doesn't have the resources to invade Iran given that they can't even nail down their border area with Ukraine.

Israel is more likely to attack Iran because the nuke issue gives them an excuse. Take that away and the justification and the targets they choose to attack gets a lot harder.
 
Re: Global War on Terror Version 7 - The Nightmare that Threatens the World!!!

There's no actual threat of an American or Russian invasion though. The US is through invading new countries for a long time as we're still trying to clean up the ones we're already in. Russia doesn't have the resources to invade Iran given that they can't even nail down their border area with Ukraine.

Israel is more likely to attack Iran because the nuke issue gives them an excuse. Take that away and the justification and the targets they choose to attack gets a lot harder.

The Israelis don't need any justification. They're a terrified badger backed into a corner; they don't give a crap about international law, they think they are literally fighting to prevent another Holocaust, and if they murder some innocents that's a price they're willing to pay. I don't care for Likud and I think in the long run they're actually making a disaster even more likely to occur, but it's crystal clear they have already made their calculations. If they could press a button and make all 2 billion Muslims wink out of existence, they'd do it.
 
Re: Global War on Terror Version 7 - The Nightmare that Threatens the World!!!

Just saw 60 minutes report on the Syrian Sarin Gas Attack. Might be the sickest thing I've seen on TV. We expect to fix that over there if they have Governments capable of doing that?

No, I don't think so.
 
Re: Global War on Terror Version 7 - The Nightmare that Threatens the World!!!

I will sorely miss him on that show. I wonder who are comparable figures in the history of brilliant political satire.

The guy who comes to mind is Mort Saul. Stewart is superior because the driver of his satire is intelligence -- he's offended that the bad guys are so blatantly intellectually dishonest. Colbert took this a step further and actually became one of them.

I wish Stewart (or someone like him) had been around for Reagan. He would have captured the incredulity of "People are actually falling for this!?!" The closest was Jon Lovitz doing Michael Dukakis debating Bush Sr. for SNL, turning to the camera and deadpanning, "I can't believe I'm losing to this guy." That summed up 12 years of frustration that lies so obvious and transparent could win elections.

And then came Dubya, and at least we had Stewart when that effect was magnified 1000x.
 
Re: Global War on Terror Version 7 - The Nightmare that Threatens the World!!!

The Israelis don't need any justification. They're a terrified badger backed into a corner; they don't give a crap about international law, they think they are literally fighting to prevent another Holocaust, and if they murder some innocents that's a price they're willing to pay. I don't care for Likud and I think in the long run they're actually making a disaster even more likely to occur, but it's crystal clear they have already made their calculations. If they could press a button and make all 2 billion Muslims wink out of existence, they'd do it.

That is completely untrue and is as much BS propoganda as you accuse the warhawks in Likud of making. (or the GOPers for that matter) Are they scared...yes. Are they willing to risk Nuclear War...no. It is all posturing they are not going to first strike Iran and they most certainly do NOT want to eliminate all Muslims. If it was as you say, they would just exterminate all the Palestinians that live across the street, you know the ones who blow them up from time to time. Since "they don't give a crap about international law" what is stopping them from doing that exactly?

The picture you and the Left paint of Israel is pretty evil and while Jews trend liberal there is a reason their trust level of the Democratic Party when it comes to Israel is in the crapper. Demonizing Israel (even in the patronizing way you did it above) is pretty pathetic considering what both parties in this country have done in that region and the masters we serve there.
 
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Re: Global War on Terror Version 7 - The Nightmare that Threatens the World!!!

That is completely untrue and is as much BS propoganda as you accuse the warhawks in Likud of making. (or the GOPers for that matter) Are they scared...yes. Are they willing to risk Nuclear War...no. It is all posturing they are not going to first strike Iran and they most certainly do NOT want to eliminate all Muslims. If it was as you say, they would just exterminate all the Palestinians that live across the street, you know the ones who blow them up from time to time. Since "they don't give a crap about international law" what is stopping them from doing that exactly?

The picture you and the Left paint of Israel is pretty evil and while Jews trend liberal there is a reason their trust level of the Democratic Party when it comes to Israel is in the crapper. Demonizing Israel (even in the patronizing way you did it above) is pretty pathetic considering what both parties in this country have done in that region and the masters we have there.

You are completely misunderstanding what I've written. None of this has to do with good or evil, it has to do with the Israeli's perception of an existential threat. Let's leave a debate of the merits of that perception aside (though I'll say in passing there are strong reasons on both sides).

Likud's reason to be is the protection of Israel as a Jewish state. Period, end trans. They see themselves surrounded by barbarians brandishing scimitars. They believe there are two things holding back the barbarians: their and the United States' nukes. They believe that without that protection they will be overrun by murderous Arab hoards who will quite literally kill all of them -- an actual, second Holocaust. They further believe that there is no limit on what they are justified in doing to prevent that. None of this is controversial -- they freely say so.

Israel will do what they calculate is best for its long term survival. An apartheid state gives them the most protection they can manage without becoming isolated in the world -- exterminating the Palestinians would cut off the money and arms from the US they need to survive. Opening up the ghettos and respecting Palestinian civil rights is far too dangerous on two counts: it's a security nightmare that will lead to far more bombings, and it recognizes the Palestinians as human beings which undermines their narrative of a brave civilized people beset by barbarian murderers.

They have no choice, or maybe more accurately they are in a constant state of emergency where ordinary civil liberties are suspended. The Israeli left has been trying to dial down the tension in the hopes of restoring a little more legitimacy and less aggressiveness to the formal Israeli position, but at the end of the day the Israeli left does face the same basic calculation.

It is possible to not support what Israel is doing and yet perfectly see the logic in what they're doing. People on both sides of this highly emotional fight act like it has to be one way or the other. It's not; it's real life and thus much more complicated than abstract political principles.
 
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Re: Global War on Terror Version 7 - The Nightmare that Threatens the World!!!

Kep, your take on Israel might have been a wee bit over the top. ;) Not sure they'd want to push a button and rid the world of all muslims. What have the Indonesians ever done to them?
 
Re: Global War on Terror Version 7 - The Nightmare that Threatens the World!!!

Kep, your take on Israel might have been a wee bit over the top. ;) Not sure they'd want to push a button and rid the world of all muslims. What have the Indonesians ever done to them?

OK, maybe that was excessive. Let me put it a different way: if you gave Bibi a button that was labeled "The Israeli Jewish state will be safe forever," he'd push it without asking. Is that better?

I don't think an American can understand an Israeli (or a Palestinian) mindset. It is too far removed from us. The closest I can come is this, if there was a button labeled "no American city will ever be nuked," would you push it? I think we're still in the "clever" phase where we'd remember that genie wishes usually backfire, and we'd ask a lot of questions. We'd have to be a lot more desperate and afraid to just say, "I'm in."

I do not think Israel can be judged by western standards of state behavior. This cuts against both their apologists and the demonizers. Israel lives in a whole different world from ours. We cannot know what it's like to feel that close to elimination, with that history.
 
Re: Global War on Terror Version 7 - The Nightmare that Threatens the World!!!

Israel gets the raw end many times. But IMO they really blew it in Gaza. First they occupied it. Then, they realized they didn't want to occupy it (which is understandable). But rather than set up some sort of governing framework (ala the US in Iraq), they just left. With a proper start to its future, it wouldn't have been a foregone conclusion that Gaza would be a successful state today...but it would have had a chance.
 
Re: Global War on Terror Version 7 - The Nightmare that Threatens the World!!!

Israel gets the raw end many times. But IMO they really blew it in Gaza. First they occupied it. Then, they realized they didn't want to occupy it (which is understandable). But rather than set up some sort of governing framework (ala the US in Iraq), they just left. With a proper start to its future, it wouldn't have been a foregone conclusion that Gaza would be a successful state today...but it would have had a chance.

Even though they blew it, I can't really think of anything they could have done to get a better result. 500 years ago they would have just had an Indian War-style genocide, but you can't do that anymore.

Long term, Israel is screwed, and this last 50 years was the best chance for the Middle East to moderate and become less fundamentalist. What's going to happen when the oil dries up and all those states around them become radicalized failed states?
 
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