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Fun With Numbers 2018: Pairwise, KRACH, GRaNT, and other mathematical excitement

Re: Fun With Numbers 2018: Pairwise, KRACH, GRaNT, and other mathematical excitement

TonyTheTiger20 said:
I'm only talking about D1 conferences :D
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Just remember that the CHA has as many championship game appearances as does BC, although only half as many as BU does. :eek:
 
Re: Fun With Numbers 2018: Pairwise, KRACH, GRaNT, and other mathematical excitement

ARM said:
Just remember that the CHA has as many championship game appearances as does BC, although only half as many as BU does. :eek:
Click to expand...

It'll come back to bite me when we play Syracuse/Robert Morris in the first round and lose lol
 
Re: Fun With Numbers 2018: Pairwise, KRACH, GRaNT, and other mathematical excitement

TonyTheTiger20 said:
It'll come back to bite me when we play Syracuse/Robert Morris in the first round and lose lol
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Losing to Mercyhurst in the semis doesn't make it hurt any less.
 
Re: Fun With Numbers 2018: Pairwise, KRACH, GRaNT, and other mathematical excitement

TonyTheTiger20 said:
I have this year's Tournament Predictor ready to go for February 18th but I'm always happy to have some people beta test the new changes before it goes live. If anyone's interested, shoot me an email at grant dot salzano at gmail and I'll send you the spreadsheet.

The Tournament Predictor is this: https://twitter.com/Salzano14/status/961770250034434048
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I just found out that the independents are actually holding a postseason tournament, so I had to factor that into the calculator. This took a lot of work, and with a lot of work comes a lot of opportunities for errors, so if any of you that reached out before would like to play with the new version just let me know lol
 
Re: Fun With Numbers 2018: Pairwise, KRACH, GRaNT, and other mathematical excitement

TonyTheTiger20 said:
Did some fun stuff with KRACH to determine the odds of each team winning its conference tournament: https://www.bcinterruption.com/bost...ey-east-wcha-ecac-cha-newha-boston-college-bc
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I can't get past the name of this thread. those are 2 words that you can bet have never come out of my mouth. I can't even type them.

Thank God there's someone here that can figure out the possibilities...and thank God it isn't me.
 
Re: Fun With Numbers 2018: Pairwise, KRACH, GRaNT, and other mathematical excitement

TonyTheTiger20 said:
Conference tournament odds: https://www.bcinterruption.com/bost...through-the-quarterfinals-frozen-four-bracket

Interestingly, BC is the most likely team to win its conference tournament, but Hockey East is also by far the most likely conference to boot Minnesota from the tournament.
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wow is my head spinning. I was just thinking...when I was in high school I would always hound the smart nerdy kids. had I known that I'd be on this board 38 years later reading all of this stuff I surely would have studied harder in math. WOW.

some figure it and some build it
 
Re: Fun With Numbers 2018: Pairwise, KRACH, GRaNT, and other mathematical excitement

Quiet Riot said:
wow is my head spinning. I was just thinking...when I was in high school I would always hound the smart nerdy kids. had I known that I'd be on this board 38 years later reading all of this stuff I surely would have studied harder in math. WOW.

some figure it and some build it
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Ha cheers :D
 
Re: Fun With Numbers 2018: Pairwise, KRACH, GRaNT, and other mathematical excitement

Does anyone think there is any chance St. Anselm gets an at-large bid to the tournament? If they did, wouldn't it almost certainly cost the Gophers their spot?

If it happens, Wisconsin might beat them by 15?
 
Re: Fun With Numbers 2018: Pairwise, KRACH, GRaNT, and other mathematical excitement

hockeydad23 said:
Does anyone think there is any chance St. Anselm gets an at-large bid to the tournament? If they did, wouldn't it almost certainly cost the Gophers their spot?

If it happens, Wisconsin might beat them by 15?
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Bus/plane rules, I assume, would apply. BC would beat them by 20.

(There's a guy - Phil - who does a call-and-answer with the crowd at Badger games: "One ... Two ... Three... We Want More", for whatever the appropriate number is for goals scored. If the count gets high enough, he switches to multiples: "Two ... Four ... Six" etc. Back when I was just out of school, I was at a Wisconsin men's game against the University of Windsor, just across the bridge from Detroit. "Five ... Ten... Fifteen... Twenty..." We ... really didn't want any more. 20-0 final score.)
 
Re: Fun With Numbers 2018: Pairwise, KRACH, GRaNT, and other mathematical excitement

hockeydad23 said:
Does anyone think there is any chance St. Anselm gets an at-large bid to the tournament? If they did, wouldn't it almost certainly cost the Gophers their spot?

If it happens, Wisconsin might beat them by 15?
Click to expand...
I think there's a non-zero chance, but I think it's pretty close to zero. They're on the bubble as it is. If they were undefeated, the committee would have had a much tougher decision to make. But as it is, I don't expect them to make it.

They wouldn't play Wisconsin though -- they'd stay east and Ohio State would go to Madison.

I don't think they'd lose by 15... they're roughly similar to or maybe slightly better than Holy Cross. Holy Cross beat Harvard, so I mean at least they wouldn't get completely embarrassed lol. But they would lose handily.
 
Re: Fun With Numbers 2018: Pairwise, KRACH, GRaNT, and other mathematical excitement

I admit to not really paying any attention to the rating systems but something struck me looking at them just now & I wanted to ask. It seems to me that there is usually a couple of big differences between them, particularly KRACH and the other two. Is this year odd in that they seem very similar or was I just not paying attention in the past & think there were significant differences?
 
Re: Fun With Numbers 2018: Pairwise, KRACH, GRaNT, and other mathematical excitement

ne7minder said:
I admit to not really paying any attention to the rating systems but something struck me looking at them just now & I wanted to ask. It seems to me that there is usually a couple of big differences between them, particularly KRACH and the other two. Is this year odd in that they seem very similar or was I just not paying attention in the past & think there were significant differences?
Click to expand...
I think that there have been more notable differences in some past seasons. Particularly in a year where three WCHA teams would be in the top five, ratings like Rutter and KRACH would show those teams collectively as doing better than the PairWise would.

Even this season, you can find rankings where Minnesota comes out higher than Cornell, such as the WCHODR rankings, that have been around for quite a while:
http://it.stlawu.edu/~chodr/wchodr/current.html
 
Re: Fun With Numbers 2018: Pairwise, KRACH, GRaNT, and other mathematical excitement

ARM said:
I think that there have been more notable differences in some past seasons. Particularly in a year where three WCHA teams would be in the top five, ratings like Rutter and KRACH would show those teams collectively as doing better than the PairWise would.
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Yeah that's true, that's usually the big difference is how high those 2nd tier WCHA teams end up, although that hasn't really been the case this year. Part of that is probably due to the fact that the WCHA isn't quite as dominant as it has been in past years (or at least it didn't feel like it was).

The HUGE difference between KRACH and the other systems this year has been in how they deal with the D-I/D-II independents. Saint Anselm is 5th in PWR but 27th in KRACH (you have to look at KRACH here; USCHO doesn't properly include the independents). Given that Holy Cross was able to win a couple D-I games this year (including one over Harvard) and that Saint Anselm is a bit better than Holy Cross is, that 27th feels like it might be pretty darn accurate.

It's usually INCREDIBLY difficult to deal with low interconnectivity (like we have every year between conferences in general with so few interconference games). But with even fewer between the independents and everyone else, KRACH dealt with them, I think, exceptionally well. I think that given that knowledge, this year has really shown just how robust KRACH is as a rating system.
 
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