Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodies

[TonyTheTiger20]

Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

1 Boston College -- Clear
2 Wisconsin -- Big
3 Minnesota -- Three
4 Quinnipiac -- Not too far back but tie to SLU bumps them down
5 Clarkson -- Gave QU one of their closest games yet, shot wise
6 Minnesota-Duluth -- Launching them up from unranked to 6th
7 Bemidji -- Idle
8 Boston University -- Kicked the crap out of Harvard in shots, really surprised me.
9 Mercyhurst -- Can't imagine they'll lose to Colgate
10 Harvard -- Cornell 2, Electric Boogaloo: How many overrated ECAC teams are there anyway?

 

[bc6696]

Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

1. BC
2. Minnesota
3. Wisconsin
4. Quinnipiac
5. Clarkson
6. Mercyhurst
7. UMD
8. Bemidji State
9. Harvard
10. BU

 

[CrankIt]

Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

Based upon results against UCONN, BC seems pretty easy to distinguish from UMD.

Since when does a win and a tie in the first week of the season automatically mean a team is bad? Why base your opinion on a team off of the opening weekend in which they had 10 new players on the roster? Clearly the UMD team we're seeing now is not the same as the team that opened the season 8 weeks ago.

 

[TonyTheTiger20]

Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

Since when does a win and a tie in the first week of the season automatically mean a team is bad? Why base your opinion on a team off of the opening weekend in which they had 10 new players on the roster? Clearly the UMD team we're seeing now is not the same as the team that opened the season 8 weeks ago.

The point being made is that saying "BC=UMD because of the results against Cornell" is just as dumb as saying "BC>UMD because of the results against UConn."

Also, Duluth is clearly playing better but I would settle down just a bit given wins over Lindenwood, Mankato, and [a 1 goal win against] St. Cloud. BC's schedule hasn't been much better but 1) they have been kicking the snot out of everyone in every single game since St. Lawrence and 2) they don't have the early season facepalms to overcome that Duluth does.

ALSO also, anyone saying BC=UMD is just being objectively dumb anyway.

 

[PuckRush]

Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

The point being made is that saying "BC=UMD because of the results against Cornell" is just as dumb as saying "BC>UMD because of the results against UConn."

Also, Duluth is clearly playing better but I would settle down just a bit given wins over Lindenwood, Mankato, and [a 1 goal win against] St. Cloud. BC's schedule hasn't been much better but 1) they have been kicking the snot out of everyone in every single game since St. Lawrence and 2) they don't have the early season facepalms to overcome that Duluth does.

ALSO also, anyone saying BC=UMD is just being objectively dumb anyway.

What he said.

 

[bc6696]

Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

What he said.

Wait...I like Eeyore's rational. That makes Hurst better than Minn based on comparitive results versus OSU!
Those are even more relevant since they played each other the same week.

 

[PuckRush]

Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

1. Boston College - They need a quality opponent. Not to prove anything, but to keep them sharp. Harvard coming on Friday.
2. Minnesota - Who doesn't think it's a BC vs Minnesota final?
3. Wisconsin - Better than everyone but the above. Maybe a tournament without BC and Minny would be more fun?
4. Quinnipiac - Finally a quality win. Even in their tie, they outshot and won the faceoff battle vs SLU.
5. UMD - For real. But are they #5 or #6? We find out this weekend.
6. Bemidji - Ditto. Big weekend coming up.
7. Clarkson - Impressed with how they've come together since beginning of season.
8. Harvard - BC on tap for Friday night. Ready? Probably not, but it's your big chance.
9. St Lawrence - I know they've been inconsistent, but they can trounce everyone not ranked above them.
10. Boston University - She's back, so is BU.

Mercyhurst - I know, I know, but I really don't think you can beat any of these teams in the top 10. OK, you're number 11.
Cornell - Likely not to be discussed in this thread until next year.
Vermont and Northeastern - You are the only threats to 2nd place BU in HE. Now or never time to step it up.
North Dakota - Kind of like Vermont and Northeastern, but likely too late to make a move given how tough the WCHA is. Plus, you lost to UVM on your home ice.
Ohio State - What happened after the Bemidji massacre?

 

[TonyTheTiger20]

Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

1. Boston College - They need a quality opponent. Not to prove anything, but to keep them sharp. Harvard coming on Friday.

BC is still going to need a quality opponent after Friday I fear

 

[ARM]

Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

Who doesn't think it's a BC vs Minnesota final?

I think it is far from a foregone conclusion. There is no way that there is much separation between Minnesota and Wisconsin, and outside of one weekend in Madison, the Badgers have likely been the better team. If the Badgers move ahead of the Gophers, then it becomes more likely we see a BC/UM meeting in the semis, if at all.

This is a year where the "make the WCHA teams play each other in the quarters" scheduling of the NCAA Tournament will help BC. They definitely do NOT want a quarterfinal game against a team like UMD that can skate with them while playing rope-a-dope. The Eagles should be the top seed and will either get the second HEA team or the lowest ECAC team. The second of those could be dangerous, in that it may be a team that struggled early and was much better during the second half.

I think this is a tournament that will come down to match ups. Certain teams will fare much better against one team from the field than another that will be ranked very similarly. For example, I think BC matches up better against the Gophers than the Badgers.

 

[TonyTheTiger20]

Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

I think it is far from a foregone conclusion. There is no way that there is much separation between Minnesota and Wisconsin, and outside of one weekend in Madison, the Badgers have likely been the better team. If the Badgers move ahead of the Gophers, then it becomes more likely we see a BC/UM meeting in the semis, if at all.

This is a year where the "make the WCHA teams play each other in the quarters" scheduling of the NCAA Tournament will help BC. They definitely do NOT want a quarterfinal game against a team like UMD that can skate with them while playing rope-a-dope. The Eagles should be the top seed and will either get the second HEA team or the lowest ECAC team. The second of those could be dangerous, in that it may be a team that struggled early and was much better during the second half.

I think this is a tournament that will come down to match ups. Certain teams will fare much better against one team from the field than another that will be ranked very similarly. For example, I think BC matches up better against the Gophers than the Badgers.

All of this

 

[Trillium]

Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

1. Boston College
2. Minnesota
3. Wisconsin
4. Quinnipiac
5. Clarkson
6. Boston U
7. UMD
8. Bemidji
9. Harvard
10. St. Lawrence

 

[ne7minder]

Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

I think this is a tournament that will come down to match ups. Certain teams will fare much better against one team from the field than another that will be ranked very similarly. For example, I think BC matches up better against the Gophers than the Badgers.

Maybe they should give it all up & go with a "4 Nations" format, a round-robin round of 4 with the 2 best records playing for the championship. If the NC$$ could sell a place out they would be all in favor of it. Sadly, unless the games are at Ridder it seems like they struggle to fill a closet.

 

[vicb]

Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

.... .....
Cornell - Likely not to be discussed in this thread until next year.
.......

Not sure I agree with this. If and this is a big if, they can get their d and goaltending straightenened out, Jenner and Saulniers' offensive capabilities would make them a tough team to play within the ECAC come the post season. I could still see them as a top 4 ECAC team and they definitely know how to win the ECAC Tourney and could get the auto bid.

 

[driventoit]

Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

BC is still going to need a quality opponent after Friday I fear

I wish Harvard had an "A" game to bring to BC Friday, but it will be exciting to see the #1 team in the country.

The last time I saw a #1 I had to go to BU!












(Wisco in the '09 FF)

 

[sheagle008]

Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

1.Boston College- have some tough challenges against Yale and Harvard
2.Minnesota- a strong weekend
3.Wisconsin- close third
4.Quinnipiac- still not convinced
5.Harvard- Tough test against BC
6.UMD- they are playing great and getting better
7.Bemidji- idle
8.Boston University- a good team getting better
9. Clarkson- a tough team
10.Saint Lawrence- Carmen MacDonald

 

[wwhyte]

Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

1. Minnesota -- Higher win % on tougher schedule than Wisconsin, so they get the nod above Wisco although I suspect Wisco's peak this year may be higher than theirs.
2. Boston College -- Harvard game is big if they lose, but if they win just reinforces questions about Harvard rather than providing answers about BC
3. Wisconsin -- round out the big three, their results against Kato look better now that Minny has also played MSU
4. Quinnipiac -- Looking more real following the Clarkson game, and of course all the best teams tie with St Lawrence (do you hear me Gophers?)
5. Clarkson -- Getting the job done
6. Mercyhurst -- weakest Opp Win % of any Div 1 team, but a Win % of their own of .83 with a big gap to BU (.71) and Clarkson (.7), so you have to think they may be for real
7. Boston University -- Reliably unreliable, this year's last year's Eagles.
8. St. Lawrence -- Highest Opp Win % of anyone except Cornell and Minnesota State, and with a win % of their own comfortably above .55. You have to worry that their continuing tough schedule will wear them down but looking good for now.
9. Bemidji State
10. Minnesota-Duluth -- good results, yes, but the lowest Opp Win% of any WCHA team, so I don't rate them as highly as other posters do. Looking forward to the Bemidji series.

Next tier: Dartmouth, Princeton, Harvard -- one good win away from making it in if someone slips up. I suspect Harvard will get that good win at some point but with five games under their belt it's time to start rating them on results, not potential.

Tier after that: Northeastern, Vermont, Penn State, Ohio State -- several good wins away.

 

[CrankIt]

1. Minnesota -- Higher win % on tougher schedule than Wisconsin, so they get the nod above Wisco although I suspect Wisco's peak this year may be higher than theirs.
2. Boston College -- Harvard game is big if they lose, but if they win just reinforces questions about Harvard rather than providing answers about BC
3. Wisconsin -- round out the big three, their results against Kato look better now that Minny has also played MSU
4. Quinnipiac -- Looking more real following the Clarkson game, and of course all the best teams tie with St Lawrence (do you hear me Gophers?)
5. Clarkson -- Getting the job done
6. Mercyhurst -- weakest Opp Win % of any Div 1 team, but a Win % of their own of .83 with a big gap to BU (.71) and Clarkson (.7), so you have to think they may be for real
7. Boston University -- Reliably unreliable, this year's last year's Eagles.
8. St. Lawrence -- Highest Opp Win % of anyone except Cornell and Minnesota State, and with a win % of their own comfortably above .55. You have to worry that their continuing tough schedule will wear them down but looking good for now.
9. Bemidji State
10. Minnesota-Duluth -- good results, yes, but the lowest Opp Win% of any WCHA team, so I don't rate them as highly as other posters do. Looking forward to the Bemidji series.

Wait, so you give Hurst the 6 even though you admit they have the weakest Opp. Win % and claim that they "may be for real" yet you give UMD the 10 because their opponents have a low win %... A bit contradictory eh?

 

[TonyTheTiger20]

Wait, so you give Hurst the 6 even though you admit they have the weakest Opp. Win % and claim that they "may be for real" yet you give UMD the 10 because their opponents have a low win %... A bit contradictory eh?

The predictability of the reaction here whenever someone doesn't bow down to the almighty WCHA is one of the great comforting things in this world.

 

[CrankIt]

The predictability of the reaction here whenever someone doesn't bow down to the almighty WCHA is one of the great comforting things in this world.

I'm not saying UMD should be ranked in the top 4 but 10? After a nine game winning streak? And his logic is flawed if that's Opp win % is his reasoning

 

[TonyTheTiger20]

Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

I'm not saying UMD should be ranked in the top 4 but 10? After a nine game winning streak? And his logic is flawed if that's Opp win % is his reasoning

OppWin% is clearly not his only reasoning.