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Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodies

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Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

Eeyore said:
So, by this poll, Minnesota has played 7 of its 12 games against teams in the top ten. Wisconsin has played 6. Boston College and Quinnipiac have combined to play . . . uhm, I may run out of fingers . . . 0.
Click to expand...

Why you gotta harsh the mellow of bc and quinnipea-ack. They have combined to play 3 TUCs, so there is that.
 
Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

Eeyore said:
So, by this poll, Minnesota has played 7 of its 12 games against teams in the top ten. Wisconsin has played 6. Boston College and Quinnipiac have combined to play . . . uhm, I may run out of fingers . . . 0.
Click to expand...

Correct. And by the same logic, Minnesota and Wisconsin have LOST to top 10 teams. Guess all 4 should move down and make Clarkson #1. Oh... except Clarkson lost to #9 BU. Let's move them down too. Let's make Bemidji #1. Oh... but they lost to Wisconsin and some other non-Top 10 teams. OK, let's move Wisconsin to #1 then. Oh.. but they lost to Minnesota. OK, let's make them #1. Oh... but they lost to Bemidji. So let's put Bemidji at number one. Wait, that's not going to work. Let's put BC at #1 and Quinnipiac at #4. Perfect.
 
Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

PuckRush said:
Actually, my post has no logic at all. Which, is kind of my point :)
Click to expand...
But you can't use it as an excuse to post an image of cupcakes, which is really the only point of Eeyore's post, so that then TTT can post that same image he always does, like he's RStarr or something. Message board debates weren't nearly so graphical back in my day (although now that I think of it, they'd have had to involve push pins.)
 
Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

PuckRush said:
Actually, my post has no logic at all. Which, is kind of my point :)
Click to expand...

it looks to me like your point is you cannot predict the outcome of two teams playing one another on the basis of how they played against common opponents. I agree, however the problem is that only 8 teams will get to play in the NCAA tournament, and those teams are selected by the process you say has no logic (and I agree, in fact nearly everyone agrees). So right now BU & Mercyhurst would be out, but wait, the CHA champ has an auto bid. So Mercyhurst or some other CHA team will bump UMD if the tournament was played this weekend.
But is Harvard really better than BU? Is Bemidji better than UMD or any team below? The only way to know is to have them play.
In the end a couple of teams get screwed out of playing in the tournament.
 
Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

bc6696 said:
Interesting ranking of Women's D1 on myhockeyrankings, I can't say I would disagree too much. Curious what the math is on this site.
http://myhockeyrankings.com/rank.php?y=2014&a=f&v=903
Click to expand...

While I don't disagree with the ranking, using goal differential is just wrong, it rewards teams for playing cupcakes instead of playing tough opponents.
I don't know about the rest of you, but opening weekend I was much more interesting in watching MN take on BU rather than Penn State.
 
Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

pokechecker said:
it looks to me like your point is you cannot predict the outcome of two teams playing one another on the basis of how they played against common opponents. I agree, however the problem is that only 8 teams will get to play in the NCAA tournament, and those teams are selected by the process you say has no logic (and I agree, in fact nearly everyone agrees). So right now BU & Mercyhurst would be out, but wait, the CHA champ has an auto bid. So Mercyhurst or some other CHA team will bump UMD if the tournament was played this weekend.
But is Harvard really better than BU? Is Bemidji better than UMD or any team below? The only way to know is to have them play.
In the end a couple of teams get screwed out of playing in the tournament.
Click to expand...

You read my mind! So now I get to make my next point, which is what I think about when ranking teams. I rank based on my guess of which team I think will, right now, win a 5 game series on neutral ice against any of the teams below it. The #1 team will win that series against all teams, #2 will win that series against all but the #1 team, and so on. So the CHA conundrum is irrelevant to my ranking. I won't put a CHA team in the top 8 because it satisfies the selection committee's paradigm. I also admit that I have no faith in my predictive abilities when I get to the back half of the top 10!

Is that the consensus on how everyone ranks the Top 10? Share your view... I think it would be interesting and instructive to understand our different approaches.
 
Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

TonyTheTiger20 said:
The poll is back yayyyy

Week IX Posters Poll

Code: 
[U][B]Rank Votes  Team (1st place votes)  [I]Range (Mode)[/I]  Last week (change)[/B][/U]
  1. 187    Boston College (17)     [I]1-3   (1)[/I]     1 (0)
  2. 168    Minnesota (1)           [I]1-3   (2)[/I]     2 (0)
  3. 155    Wisconsin (1)           [I]1-4   (3)[/I]     3 (0)
  4. 132    Quinnipiac              [I]3-8   (4)[/I]     4 (0)
  5. 109    Clarkson                [I]4-7   (5)[/I]     7 (+2)
  6.  78    Bemidji State           [I]5-10  (6)[/I]     8 (+2)
  7.  77    Harvard                 [I]5-10  (7)[/I]     5 (-2)
  8.  43    Minnesota-Duluth        [I]6-NR  (9)[/I]     ARV (+3)
  9.  41    Boston University       [I]5-NR  (10)[/I]    6 (-3)
 10.  33    Mercyhurst              [I]6-NR  (8)[/I]     9 (-1)
 
[U][B]Also Receiving Votes:[/B][/U]
      16    Cornell                 [I]9-NR  (10)[/I]    ARV 
       3    Vermont                 [I]9-NR  (9.5)[/I]   ARV
       1    North Dakota            [I]10-NR (10)[/I]    10 (-1) 
       1    Princeton               [I]10-NR (10)[/I]    NR
       1    St. Lawrence            [I]10-NR (10)[/I]    NR
            
[U][B]Dropped Out:[/B][/U]
            Dartmouth
            Ohio State
            Northeastern

Week IX Chart: http://i.imgur.com/1nWFkPH.jpg
Click to expand...

Nice chart, but UW should be red, not yellow.
 
Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

PuckRush said:
You read my mind! So now I get to make my next point, which is what I think about when ranking teams. I rank based on my guess of which team I think will, right now, win a 5 game series on neutral ice against any of the teams below it. The #1 team will win that series against all teams, #2 will win that series against all but the #1 team, and so on. So the CHA conundrum is irrelevant to my ranking. I won't put a CHA team in the top 8 because it satisfies the selection committee's paradigm. I also admit that I have no faith in my predictive abilities when I get to the back half of the top 10!

Is that the consensus on how everyone ranks the Top 10? Share your view... I think it would be interesting and instructive to understand our different approaches.
Click to expand...

ultimately the only ranking that matters is the one that selects the NCAA tournament. Would UMD or BU be happy to be ranked above Mecyhurst only to be left out of the dance and not being able to prove on the ice they deserve to be there? Which team do you suppose is happier with their season last year, MN who led the polls all year or Clarkson, who only lead after the season was over?
IMO, the only valid purpose of any poll is to select who and how the final season tournament is conducted. If you want to settle bragging rights of which team is better, the only valid way is on the ice.
 
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Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

PuckRush said:
You read my mind! So now I get to make my next point, which is what I think about when ranking teams. I rank based on my guess of which team I think will, right now, win a 5 game series on neutral ice against any of the teams below it. The #1 team will win that series against all teams, #2 will win that series against all but the #1 team, and so on. So the CHA conundrum is irrelevant to my ranking. I won't put a CHA team in the top 8 because it satisfies the selection committee's paradigm. I also admit that I have no faith in my predictive abilities when I get to the back half of the top 10!

Is that the consensus on how everyone ranks the Top 10? Share your view... I think it would be interesting and instructive to understand our different approaches.
Click to expand...

Also my approach.
 
Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

I go based on kind of a hybrid of game results so far plus what I think will happen in future games.
 
Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

pokechecker said:
ultimately the only ranking that matters is the one that selects the NCAA tournament. Would UMD or BU be happy to be ranked above Mecyhurst only to be left out of the dance and not being able to prove on the ice they deserve to be there? Which team do you suppose is happier with their season last year, MN who led the polls all year or Clarkson, who only lead after the season was over?
IMO, the only valid purpose of any poll is to select who and how the final season tournament is conducted. If you want to settle bragging rights of which team is better, the only valid way is on the ice.
Click to expand...

So you're compelled to put at least one member of every conference in the top 8 regardless of merit?
 
Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

PuckRush said:
So you're compelled to put at least one member of every conference in the top 8 regardless of merit?
Click to expand...
I think it's an Op-Ed making the point that only the ranking that gives eight teams an opportunity to win the championship ultimately matters. There are of course instances of questionable merit in those rankings as well. I doubt the questionable merit matters to any among the eight.
 
Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

brookyone said:
I think it's an Op-Ed making the point that only the ranking that gives eight teams an opportunity to win the championship ultimately matters. There are of course instances of questionable merit in those rankings as well. I doubt the questionable merit matters to any among the eight.
Click to expand...

not true if a team earns an autobid that isn't among the top 8 thereby removing #8 from the tournament
...or another removing #7

didn't that occur with BU last year, they weren't #8 but they won the Hockey Easy tournament, thereby getting in and bumping someone else from the tournament?
 
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Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

pokechecker said:
not true if a team earns an autobid that isn't among the top 8 thereby removing #8 from the tournament
...or another removing #7
Click to expand...
How ya figure? You think the autobid team among the final eight is sorry for that ranked team on the outside? My "among the eight" remark refers to the eight in the NCAA brackets.
 
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Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

jeeze, and I thought you were the last remaining MN fan that didn't need everything explained and clarified

you suppose whoever was ranked #8 was a little disappointed BU bumped them from the tourney?

if UND had defeated MN in the WCHA tourney last year, they would have been in and another top 8 team would have had to be dropped from the tourney
ask yourself which format has more excitement all the way through the tournament, the NCAA college or MN high school?
I've been to section semifinals in MN HS that have had more excitement than the NCAA final
one and done, there is no better way
 
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