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Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodies

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Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

1) Boston College
2) Minnesota
3) Wisconsin
4) Harvard
5) Quinnipiac
6) Clarkson
7) Boston University
8) Bemidji
9) UMD
10) Mercyhurst
 
Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

TonyTheTiger20 said:
I found it --



Not following your math, though... BC is 1st in both polls and behind only Dartmouth in the PWR/RPI?

Even if you're including Rutter, that still wouldn't be enough to get Minnesota ahead of BC (1-2-3 for BC, 2-3-1 for Minnesota).
Click to expand...

since two of the polls are essentially the same, I average them and end up with 1 poll
I use KRACH and Rutter as well, so there are 4 polls
but USA Today comes out late, so sometimes I don't use it
so:
KRACH
Rutter
coaches poll (average the 2)
RPI type polls(average the 2)
so I am using 4 polling types to come up with a number that simply is the sum of the places in the 4 polls

and it's always possible I miscalculated, I 'll recalculate later today.
 
pokechecker said:
since two of the polls are essentially the same, I average them and end up with 1 poll
I use KRACH and Rutter as well, so there are 4 polls
but USA Today comes out late, so sometimes I don't use it
so:
KRACH
Rutter
coaches poll (average the 2)
RPI type polls(average the 2)
so I am using 4 polling types to come up with a number that simply is the sum of the places in the 4 polls

and it's always possible I miscalculated, I 'll recalculate later today.
Click to expand...
I see what happened -- KRACH is still up from last year; it doesn't have this year's rankings up yet.
 
Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

1. UW
2. UM
3. BC
4. Hawvawd
5. Q
6. Clarkson
7. Bemiji
8. Mercy
9. UMD
10. UND
 
Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

Trillium said:
Keeping it the same after Sun-Tues scores
Click to expand...

I hate to say I might be wroo... wroooooo.... wroooooon.... wroooooooong. OK, I said it.

Mercyhurst showed me something vs OSU. They probably deserve a top 10 for now given how confusing all 4 conferences are making me.
 
Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

TonyTheTiger20 said:
I see what happened -- KRACH is still up from last year; it doesn't have this year's rankings up yet.
Click to expand...

DOH!

I was wondering how BC could be below Clarkson, Cornell, UND ...
so corrected:

1 BC 2-1-3=6
1 MN 3-2-1=6

3 WI 5-3-2=10

4 Harvard 6-4-4=14
4 Quinnipiac 4-5-5=14

6 Dartmouth 1-10-10=21
7 Clarkson 7-7-8=22

8 BU 10-6-9=25
9 Bemidji 11-10-6=27

10 Murcyhurst 9-8-14=31
11 UMD 13-9-11=33

really, Dartmouth & Clarkson, BU & BSU, Murcyhurst & UMD are tied for their positions as well
 
Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

So does anyone know how the RPI 'adjustment to remove negative effect from defeating weak opponent' works?
 
Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

5mn_Major said:
So does anyone know how the RPI 'adjustment to remove negative effect from defeating weak opponent' works?
Click to expand...

If a win would lower a team's RPI it is deleted from their record and not included in the calculation.
 
Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

Eeyore said:
If a win would lower a team's RPI it is deleted from their record and not included in the calculation.
Click to expand...

AFAICT the way it would affect the RPI is through the opponents' win %, yes? So if the win % of defeated opponent A is less than the average win % of all your opponents, it gets dropped. But the win still counts towards your own win %. Is that right?
 
Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

wwhyte said:
AFAICT the way it would affect the RPI is through the opponents' win %, yes? So if the win % of defeated opponent A is less than the average win % of all your opponents, it gets dropped. But the win still counts towards your own win %. Is that right?
Click to expand...
No. If the game would lower the RPI, then it is dropped entirely, like it never existed. During Minnesota's perfect season, the RPI at selection time was based on five wins over North Dakota, and everything else was dropped because everything else would lower the RPI because all of the other teams were weaker opponents. Yet another thing that RPI is not capable of deciphering.
 
Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

wwhyte said:
AFAICT the way it would affect the RPI is through the opponents' win %, yes? So if the win % of defeated opponent A is less than the average win % of all your opponents, it gets dropped. But the win still counts towards your own win %. Is that right?
Click to expand...

No, it's dropped completely. To expand on what Arlan said, if including the game would drop your opponents' winning percentage times that factor's coefficient by more than it increases your winning own percentage times its coefficient, then the game is dropped. (Technically we also have to look at its effect on opponents' opponents' winning percentage but that probably isn't meaningful in most cases.
 
Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

Eeyore said:
No, it's dropped completely. To expand on what Arlan said, if including the game would drop your opponents' winning percentage times that factor's coefficient by more than it increases your winning own percentage times its coefficient, then the game is dropped. (Technically we also have to look at its effect on opponents' opponents' winning percentage but that probably isn't meaningful in most cases.
Click to expand...

It's all very science.
 
Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

I can give you guys an example.

Picture each game as having a "Game RPI" -- 1.000 times .3 for a win, .000 times .3 for a loss, then opponents winning percentage time .24 and oppoppwin% times .46.

Say this team has played 10 games. If that "Game RPI" is lower than their season RPI (and it was a win), you subtract that game RPI from the sum of all of the game RPIs, and divide by 9 (total number of games minus that game).

Maybe that explanation made things worse haha but that's another way of looking at it. It's how I thought through making my spreadsheet's calculation.
 
Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

TonyTheTiger20 said:
I can give you guys an example.

Picture each game as having a "Game RPI" -- 1.000 times .3 for a win, .000 times .3 for a loss, then opponents winning percentage time .24 and oppoppwin% times .46.

Say this team has played 10 games. If that "Game RPI" is lower than their season RPI (and it was a win), you subtract that game RPI from the sum of all of the game RPIs, and divide by 9 (total number of games minus that game).

Maybe that explanation made things worse haha but that's another way of looking at it. It's how I thought through making my spreadsheet's calculation.
Click to expand...



you guys are nuts
 
Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

1. Boston College
2. Minnesota
3. Wisconsin
4. Clarkson
5. Harvard
6. Mercyhurst
7. Quinnipiac
8. Northeastern
9. Boston U
10. UMD

Im going with a repeat of last week. Since many rank CHA opinion as unimportant I can make an unbiased evaluation of
teams in other conferences.
BC - Power house....anyone who says otherwise is fooling themselves
Minn - still ranking high based on history but not looking as good as Minni used to be
Wisco - hmmmm still on the fence with them but giving a benefit of doubt (need to see more proof)
Clarkson - From games I have watched I think they are going to start climbing the ranks now following 4 Nats
Harvard - based on wins...mmm ok for now but not completely convinced they will stay in the rankings
Mercyhurst - So much speed and talent on several lines and outstanding goal tending (unless you watched the Syracuse game ..yes a loss but
it was a fluke go ahead by Syracuse and 2 empty netters (I know they all count but...ya yall know the rest)
Quinnipiac - Potentially moving up the ranks soon
Northeastern - hot or cold...no where in between
UMD - respectable showings gives them a top 10 for now
 
Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

myStuff said:
BC - Power house....anyone who says otherwise is fooling themselves
Minn - still ranking high based on history but not looking as good as Minni used to be
Click to expand...

Anybody who saw Minnesota dominate an undefeated UW team at home would think otherwise. And I'm still waiting for BC to play more than one TUC.
 
Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

5mn_Major said:
Anybody who saw Minnesota dominate an undefeated UW team at home would think otherwise. And I'm still waiting for BC to play more than one TUC.
Click to expand...
Obviously pretty key to see how they respond on the road this weekend. Be nice to see a few more get started on a more productive mode in the first half here.
 
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