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Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodies

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Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

Trillium said:
Please help me understand why the official poll, and many/most in the posters' poll have Mercyhurst ranked as high as 6-7.

For the life of me I don't get it.

Despite having played 8 games, all against low end teams (2 games each vs teams ranked #20, #21, #32 and #33 in Rutter), they still have a loss and a tie.

Furthermore, with so many cupcake games, you would think the offensive numbers should be high if they are a Top 10 team, with some high scoring games. Yet they are only averaging 2.38 goals/game to date.

In most of the games (5/8) they had 30 or less shots on goal, and only managed 20 shots on goal in one game against Providence.

Comparing Providence performances (W3-0, W2-0) their wins were less impressive than those of Clarkson (W5-0, W3-0) or for that matter Yale (W6-2, W5-2), who was playing its first games of the season.

Their record against Maine (W1-0, T2-2) does not compare at all well to Quinnipiac's (W4-0, W2-0). RMU also beat Maine 1-0. Maine beat UNH.

Mercyhurst also split versus Northeastern (L4-0, W4-2), a team that has tied Syracuse (Rutter # 24), RIT (Rutter #18) and RMU (Rutter #22), as well as lost to RMU.

There has been no depth from the Mercyhurst offence either. Only 1 player, Janiga, is averaging > 0.5 goal/game, with only 1 other player >0.25 goals/game.

Unfortunately, their entire season's schedule is soft, with only 1 game planned versus Cornell in December, and 2 versus SLU in January. How long is it possible to pretend a team belongs in the rankings just because they continue to rack up (mostly) wins against weak teams?

.....and please don't use the "historical performance" rationale. They graduated 3 high end players (Bestland, Cicero, Chippy) who combined for 115 points last season. They have no hope of coming anywhere close to replacing that with their freshmen class, which is unimpressive by both historical and comparative standards.
Click to expand...

I don't put THAT much analysis into my poles. 6-1-1 is a very good record and they have outscored their opponents by a 2:1 margin. That works for me.
 
Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

Week VI Posters Poll

Code: 
[U][B]Rank Votes  Team (1st place votes)  [I]Range (Mode)[/I]  Last week (change)[/B][/U]
  1. 220    Minnesota (22)          [I]1-1   (1)[/I]     1 (0)
  2. 192    Boston College          [I]2-4   (2)[/I]     3 (+1)
  3. 179    Wisconsin               [I]2-4   (3)[/I]     2 (-1)
  4. 145    Harvard                 [I]2-9   (4)[/I]     4 (0)
  5. 130    Quinnipiac              [I]4-7   (5)[/I]     7 (+2)
  6.  86    Boston University       [I]5-NR  (7)[/I]     5 (-1)
  7.  73    Cornell                 [I]6-NR  (8)[/I]     6 (-1)
  8.  64    Mercyhurst              [I]4-NR  [b](6)[/b][/I]     9 (+1)
  9.  45    Clarkson                [I]5-NR  (9)[/I]     ARV (+2)
 10.  21    North Dakota            [I]6-NR  (10)[/I]    8 (-2)
 
[U][B]Also Receiving Votes:[/B][/U]
      19    Minnesota-Duluth        [I]6-NR  (10)[/I]    9 (-2)
      13    St. Lawrence            [I]8-NR  (10)[/I]    ARV
      10    Yale                    [I]8-NR  (8)[/I]     ARV 
       6    Ohio State              [I]8-NR  (8)[/I]     ARV
       4    Bemidji State           [I]8-NR  (9)[/I]     NR
       1    Vermont                 [I]10-NR (10)[/I]    ARV
       1    Northeastern            [I]10-NR (10)[/I]    ARV
       1    RIT                     [I]10-NR (10)[/I]    NR 
       
[U][B]Dropped Out:[/B][/U]
            None

Regarding Mercyhurst, take a look at their mode -- despite being ranked 8th, their mode, 6, is totally out of sequence. A mode of 6 means more people voted Mercyhurst 6th than anything else.

In fact, about as many people voted for Mercyhurst 6th (8) as left them out entirely (7).

Week VI Chart: http://i.imgur.com/g2lzfWx.jpg

This chart fascinates the hell out of me, I don't know about the rest of you. /nerd
 
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Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

Trillium said:
Please help me understand why the official poll, and many/most in the posters' poll have Mercyhurst ranked as high as 6-7.

For the life of me I don't get it.

Despite having played 8 games, all against low end teams (2 games each vs teams ranked #20, #21, #32 and #33 in Rutter), they still have a loss and a tie.

Furthermore, with so many cupcake games, you would think the offensive numbers should be high if they are a Top 10 team, with some high scoring games. Yet they are only averaging 2.38 goals/game to date.

In most of the games (5/8) they had 30 or less shots on goal, and only managed 20 shots on goal in one game against Providence.

Comparing Providence performances (W3-0, W2-0) their wins were less impressive than those of Clarkson (W5-0, W3-0) or for that matter Yale (W6-2, W5-2), who was playing its first games of the season.

Their record against Maine (W1-0, T2-2) does not compare at all well to Quinnipiac's (W4-0, W2-0). RMU also beat Maine 1-0. Maine beat UNH.

Mercyhurst also split versus Northeastern (L4-0, W4-2), a team that has tied Syracuse (Rutter # 24), RIT (Rutter #18) and RMU (Rutter #22), as well as lost to RMU.

There has been no depth from the Mercyhurst offence either. Only 1 player, Janiga, is averaging > 0.5 goal/game, with only 1 other player >0.25 goals/game.

Unfortunately, their entire season's schedule is soft, with only 1 game planned versus Cornell in December, and 2 versus SLU in January. How long is it possible to pretend a team belongs in the rankings just because they continue to rack up (mostly) wins against weak teams?

.....and please don't use the "historical performance" rationale. They graduated 3 high end players (Bestland, Cicero, Chippy) who combined for 115 points last season. They have no hope of coming anywhere close to replacing that with their freshmen class, which is unimpressive by both historical and comparative standards.
Click to expand...

Personally, I don't like any of my votes below my #3 ranking, but no other teams have done enough to replace any of them at this point. I anticipate that I will likely be moving Yale into my top 10 if they keep it going, Mercyhurst out, and a few others down (e.g. Quinnipiac and Harvard) after a few more games have been played.
 
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Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

One thing that is tough when voting in any poll is balancing where one thinks teams are today and where they will end up. We know that somebody from the CHA will still be playing the second weekend in March while supposedly better teams are watching from home. Mercyhurst wasn't very impressive a month into last year, and lo and behold, the Lakers wind up at the Frozen Four for a second straight year. We may not always like the hands that Mike Sisti is holding, but he plays his cards well.
 
Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

Trillium said:
Please help me understand why the official poll, and many/most in the posters' poll have Mercyhurst ranked as high as 6-7.

For the life of me I don't get it.

Despite having played 8 games, all against low end teams (2 games each vs teams ranked #20, #21, #32 and #33 in Rutter), they still have a loss and a tie.

Furthermore, with so many cupcake games, you would think the offensive numbers should be high if they are a Top 10 team, with some high scoring games. Yet they are only averaging 2.38 goals/game to date.

In most of the games (5/8) they had 30 or less shots on goal, and only managed 20 shots on goal in one game against Providence.

Comparing Providence performances (W3-0, W2-0) their wins were less impressive than those of Clarkson (W5-0, W3-0) or for that matter Yale (W6-2, W5-2), who was playing its first games of the season.

Their record against Maine (W1-0, T2-2) does not compare at all well to Quinnipiac's (W4-0, W2-0). RMU also beat Maine 1-0. Maine beat UNH.

Mercyhurst also split versus Northeastern (L4-0, W4-2), a team that has tied Syracuse (Rutter # 24), RIT (Rutter #18) and RMU (Rutter #22), as well as lost to RMU.

There has been no depth from the Mercyhurst offence either. Only 1 player, Janiga, is averaging > 0.5 goal/game, with only 1 other player >0.25 goals/game.

Unfortunately, their entire season's schedule is soft, with only 1 game planned versus Cornell in December, and 2 versus SLU in January. How long is it possible to pretend a team belongs in the rankings just because they continue to rack up (mostly) wins against weak teams?

.....and please don't use the "historical performance" rationale. They graduated 3 high end players (Bestland, Cicero, Chippy) who combined for 115 points last season. They have no hope of coming anywhere close to replacing that with their freshmen class, which is unimpressive by both historical and comparative standards.
Click to expand...

So happy to see this post! I started writing this morning about Mercyhurst being overvalued and then work got in the way. You said everything I was going to say. They are a bubble Top 10 team according to my analysis. I think, unfortunately, that CHA is real weak this year and we're going to learn nothing about Mercyhurst based on their schedule. So I think most polls will have them in there until the end, BUT I don't think deservedly.
 
Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

Timothy A said:
I don't put THAT much analysis into my poles. 6-1-1 is a very good record and they have outscored their opponents by a 2:1 margin. That works for me.
Click to expand...

I really didn't see who to rank above them. Quinnipiac have less flair, Harvard didn't impress me against the Blades, everyone else has worse losses.
 
Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

wwhyte said:
I really didn't see who to rank above them. Quinnipiac have less flair
Click to expand...

Haha. What does that even mean? In 7 games Quinnipiac's only blemish is a 1-1 tie in a game they outshot Penn St 46-18. Obviously ran into a hot goalie; that can happen to anyone. Overall record 6-0-1 with GF 17 GA 2. Compare to Mercyhurst 6-1-1 with GF 19 GA 10. Suggests larger margin of superiority for Quinnipiac vs opponents along with better defence. Against common opponents (2 games vs Maine) again edge goes to Quinnipiac with 4-0, 2-0 wins vs 1-0, 2-2 for Mercyhurst. But I forgot about the flair effect ;)

wwhyte said:
Harvard didn't impress me against the Blades, everyone else has worse losses.
Click to expand...
Maybe Harvard isn't as good as most predict but even just a look at the roster on paper should put them well ahead of Mercyhurst's roster until they prove even more underwhelming than Mercyhurst.

You rank Mercyhurst as #4. Rutter has 12 teams ahead of Mercyhurst....RPI shows 8 better teams at this point. There's a start at finding a team more deserving at #4.....

Mercyhurst is averaging only 2.38 gpg! BU is averaging 3.29, Clarkson 3.78, SLU 2.85--all achieved despite facing far superior competition in a similar number of games.

I get that no one stands out yet as clearly deserving of a particular ranking after the top 3, but my belief is that Mercyhurst really is less deserving than most to be even considered top 10.
 
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Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

wwhyte said:
Quinnipiac have less flair, Harvard didn't impress me against the Blades, everyone else has worse losses.
Click to expand...

Harvard is STACKED. The team has only improved from last year - on paper of course. It's a good bet they'll win ECAC, and they are an NCAA title contender. I can't wait to see this team play. Is there a better looking roster out east than this team's? Yes - BC. But that's it.

Quinny is a different looking team than we're used to seeing. It ain't your grandfather's Quinnipiac. Here's link to their last game highlights, and if the team was BC, we'd be seeing a GIF of that 4th goal (lol TonyTiger). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrPP60QKs4A
 
Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

PuckRush said:
Harvard is STACKED.
Click to expand...

We do keep hearing this about a handful of eastern schools. UW, UMD, UND, and MN has already played half its games against a top 10 USCHO ranked team. Don't take this the wrong way, but I for one am looking forward to these top eastern schools play each other to see who is actually for real.
 
Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

5mn_Major said:
We do keep hearing this about a handful of eastern schools. UW, UMD, UND, and MN has already played half its games against a top 10 USCHO ranked team. Don't take this the wrong way, but I for one am looking forward to these top eastern schools play each other to see who is actually for real.
Click to expand...

Not taken wrong way at all. You are absolutely right. That's the problem from #5 up. We don't know who's for real. Having said that, Harvard and BC are as real as Minnesota and Wisconsin. Guaranteed.
 
Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

TonyTheTiger20 said:
Geez, do I have to do all the heavy lifting here?
Click to expand...

Speaking of some lifting: How bout a new thread called "GIFs of the Week". Everyone can nominate goals from highlights and then you make GIFs (that would be the lifting part). Love love seeing your BC GIFs, but people need to see how good women's hockey can be. And there are goals every week that are spectacular.
 
Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

Trillium said:
I get that no one stands out yet as clearly deserving of a particular ranking after the top 3, but my belief is that Mercyhurst really is less deserving than most to be even considered top 10.
Click to expand...

I'm officially a Trillium fan.
 
Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

I'm totally owning to my own biases here, but I still need BC to put up before I'm ready to buy in completely. I guess I'm not entirely sure what that will even look like, but I feel like I've done nothing but here about how good BC's roster is and I feel like it's been a lot of talk for a few years, but then they don't put it together. They're the boy who cried t wolf for me right now. All that potential, but no fulfilling the promise.
Grant wrote that pre-season article for them that this is the year, but I guess I need to see to believe?
 
tristarscoop said:
I'm totally owning to my own biases here, but I still need BC to put up before I'm ready to buy in completely. I guess I'm not entirely sure what that will even look like, but I feel like I've done nothing but here about how good BC's roster is and I feel like it's been a lot of talk for a few years, but then they don't put it together. They're the boy who cried t wolf for me right now. All that potential, but no fulfilling the promise.
Grant wrote that pre-season article for them that this is the year, but I guess I need to see to believe?
Click to expand...
oh

Could say the same thing about Wisconsin, no?
 
Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

tristarscoop said:
I'm totally owning to my own biases here, but I still need BC to put up before I'm ready to buy in completely. I guess I'm not entirely sure what that will even look like, but I feel like I've done nothing but here about how good BC's roster is and I feel like it's been a lot of talk for a few years, but then they don't put it together.
Click to expand...

TonyTheTiger20 said:
Could say the same thing about Wisconsin, no?
Click to expand...
Wisconsin put it together as recently as 2011.
 
Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

TonyTheTiger20 said:
Right, so it's been a lot of talk for a few years, but then they don't put it together.
Click to expand...
They just put it together enough to end your season.
 
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