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Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodies

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Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

ARM said:
It does seem to penalize teams that haven't started playing yet.
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More accurately, it seems to be rewarding actual results, which is a ranking theory I don't have a problem with.
 
Puckdrop14 said:
1) Wisconsin
2) Minnesota
3) Boston College
4) Boston University
5) Bemidji
6) Mercyhurst
7) Northeastern
8) Quinnipiac
9) Ohio
10) St-Lawrence
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Leaving off Harvard and Cornell just because they haven't played yet?

Watching SLU playing over the weekend, I don't even know if I would put them in contention for a top 4 spot in the ECAC, let alone top 10 in the country. They didn't outplay Clarkson, CU was just testing Horn Friday night and it didn't go so well for her. Granted Clarkson doesn't deserve a top 10 spot either after the way they played.
 
Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

Bhikukhu said:
Watching SLU playing over the weekend, I don't even know if I would put them in contention for a top 4 spot in the ECAC, let alone top 10 in the country. They didn't outplay Clarkson, CU was just testing Horn Friday night and it didn't go so well for her. Granted Clarkson doesn't deserve a top 10 spot either after the way they played.
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While I wouldn't necessarily bet against it, it is certainly not that remote a possibility that neither SLU or Clarkson makes top 4 in the ECAC.
 
TonyTheTiger20 said:
More accurately, it seems to be rewarding actual results...
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The problem is that there are so few actual results, that it is next to impossible to go strictly by that at this point. How do we know if Mercyhurst's sweep of Providence will turn out to be more impressive than RIT's sweep of Union, or if Northeastern's exhibition "results" make the Huskies better than Harvard and Cornell? Doesn't seem that accurate to me, but hey, it's your thread.
 
Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

ARM said:
The problem is that there are so few actual results, that it is next to impossible to go strictly by that at this point. How do we know if Mercyhurst's sweep of Providence will turn out to be more impressive than RIT's sweep of Union, or if Northeastern's exhibition "results" make the Huskies better than Harvard and Cornell? Doesn't seem that accurate to me, but hey, it's your thread.
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I totally agree. At this early stage of the season each USCHO voter's ranking is basically a hunch. We are assessing each team's relative merits on:
(a) their very limited results to date, including against relatively unknown exhibition game opponents
(b) and in the case of Ivy League teams at this juncture, with NO results to date, where do they fit in? They haven't played anybody, but then again they haven't lost yet!
(c) our perceived relative strength of each team's rosters, talent-wise, based on graduation losses vs. recruiting and Olympic team gains
(d) our regional biases, which may unconsciously enter into our judgements, absent actual results that prove otherwise
(e) our eternal "glass is half full" optimism for our favorite team, and to give that team the benefit of the doubt

At the end of the day this ranking is a consensus of many fans who follow the game. At this juncture, it's probably about as accurate as the other polls...which is to say who the heck knows. But for those who care and follow it, it's good entertainment! :)
 
Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

brookyone said:
http://www.uscho.com/rankings/d-i-womens-poll/

October 06, 2014

Team (First Place Votes)

1 Minnesota (14)
2 Wisconsin (1)
3 Boston College
4 Harvard
5 Cornell
6 Boston University
7 Mercyhurst
8 Quinnipiac
9 Clarkson
10 North Dakota

Others receiving votes: Northeastern 14, Bemidji State 8, Minnesota-Duluth 2, Rochester Institute of Technology 2.
Click to expand...

USA Today poll for this week:

http://www.uscho.com/rankings/usa-today-womens/

October 7, 2014

Team (First Place Votes)

1 University of Minnesota (16)
2 University of Wisconsin (3)
3 Boston College
4 Harvard University
5 Cornell University
6 Boston University
7 Mercyhurst University
8 Quinnipiac University
9 Clarkson University
10 Northeastern University

Others receiving votes: University of North Dakota 18, Bemidji State University 7, Robert Morris University 3, RIT 1.

Ya'll prefer a separate thread for the USCHO and USA Today official polls say the word.
 
Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

Unusual for both polls to rank Nos. 1-9 exactly the same so early into the season.
 
Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

Week III Posters Poll

Code: 
[U][B]Rank Votes  Team (1st place votes)  [I]Range (Mode)[/I]  Last week (change)[/B][/U]
  1. 229    Minnesota (17)          [I]1-4   (1)[/I]     1 (0)
  2. 212    Wisconsin (3)           [I]1-3   (2)[/I]     2 (0)
  3. 196    Boston College (4)      [I]1-NR  (3)[/I]     3 (0)
  4. 153    Harvard                 [I]2-NR  (4)[/I]     4 (0)
  5. 133    Cornell                 [I]4-NR  (5)[/I]     5 (0)
  6. 105    Boston University       [I]4-NR  (6)[/I]     7 (+1)
  7.  89    Mercyhurst              [I]5-NR  (6)[/I]     ARV (+4)
  8.  63    Quinnipiac              [I]6-NR  (7)[/I]     ARV (+3)
  9.  57    Northeastern            [I]6-NR  (8)[/I]     8 (-1)
 10.  35.5  Bemidji State           [I]5-NR  (9)[/I]     ARV (+1)
 
[U][B]Also Receiving Votes:[/B][/U]
      24    North Dakota            [I]4-NR  (9)[/I]     6 (-5)
       7.5  Clarkson                [I]7-NR  (10)[/I]    9 (-2)
       7    Minnesota-Duluth        [I]8-NR  (10)[/I]    10 (-1) 
       3    Ohio State              [I]9-NR  (9.5)[/I]   NR
       3    RIT                     [I]9-NR  (9.5)[/I]   NR
       2    Yale                    [I]10-NR (10)[/I]    ARV
       1    St. Lawrence            [I]10-NR (10)[/I]    NR
       
[U][B]Dropped Out:[/B][/U]
            None

If you're a fan of poll shakeups, this week's poll is for you! Bemidji, Mercyhurst, and Quinnipiac crack our top 10, and North Dakota/Minnesota-Duluth/Clarkson were torpedoed all the way out.

New chart this year, instead of just plotting position I'm going to plot % of the vote taken. It should do a decent job of showing if teams were close in the polls versus just ahead of each other in the polls.

For example, this week you can see the top 3 have some separation. BC and Wisconsin gained an ever so slight vote share versus Minnesota. Some other goodies as well.

Fun stuff. The chart can be found here: http://i.imgur.com/SCH3i1U.jpg.
 
Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

Nos. 1-8 match both the USCHO and USA Today rankings.
 
Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

If you're a fan of poll shakeups, this week's poll is for you! Bemidji, Mercyhurst, and Quinnipiac crack our top 10, and North Dakota/Minnesota-Duluth/Clarkson were torpedoed all the way out.

Bunch of lemmings ;)
 
Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

1) Wisconsin

This much I know. The rest later.
 
Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

brookyone said:
1) Wisconsin

This much I know. The rest later.
Click to expand...

A tie vs. Minnesota-Duluth > a tie vs. St. Lawrence.

1. Wisconsin (assuming they win tomorrow)
2. Minnesota
3-10 TBD
 
D2D said:
Actually I was expecting you to dispute my "scorching hot take" Grant.
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It is debatable. UMD was better than last year, but I'm not sure if they are back to being a contender to make the national tournament yet. A lot of last night seemed to be about what Minnesota didn't do, and many of those same problems existed for them on Friday. The difference was that the Gophers power play converted on Friday and UMD got a couple of friendly goals on Saturday.

By the end of the season, there will be some great teams. We'll have to see about Wisconsin, but I don't know that anyone else is close to that level yet.
 
Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

A UMD fan friend who was at both series (and for the record dislikes both Wisco and Minny) said she was much more impressed with Wisco, FWIW. She liked what she saw from Wisco on D - said that Wisco's D was the biggest difference in both weekends and that it was about Wisco did, not what UMD didn't do. Who knows this early, but it was interesting to hear from someone who attended both games.
 
tristarscoop said:
A UMD fan friend who was at both series (and for the record dislikes both Wisco and Minny) said she was much more impressed with Wisco, FWIW. She liked what she saw from Wisco on D - said that Wisco's D was the biggest difference in both weekends and that it was about Wisco did, not what UMD didn't do. Who knows this early, but it was interesting to hear from someone who attended both games.
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I get the sense that Wisconsin is ahead of Minnesota right now. Those I talked to said that the UW/UMD Saturday game was misleading because of the shots that went in that shouldn't have. Beyond that, the Badgers seem deeper up front than the Gophers.
 
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