I get what you're saying to a point...but I think Adrian has a hard time at an at-large bid if they just lose that one game vs. MSOE. Now, the rest of the tournament is single elimination and if they make the NCHA final, they've gone 2-2 vs. 0-1. I think 2-2 with the opponents they'll be playing helps them out more in the long run to try and get an at-large over going 0-1 and being done in the NCHA Quarterfinals.
Right now if all the conference tournaments favorites were to win their conference, Adrian is the first team out. The team in front of them is Hobart. Let's say Hobart loses to UMass Boston this week, Adrian beats whoever they are playing and then loses to the St. Norbert in the final. I can't predict the future and how that all shakes out, but I'm betting Adrian's PWR resume is boosted by the win and loss to a really high team and I could easily see Adrian going back above Hobart and gaining the last at-large spot.