Re: FFFF Semi (4/8): Wisconsin vs. RIT
RIT certainly has the ability. I would imagine that your win over DU will be more indicative of what to expect than your shellacking and utter dismantling of UNH. Both UW and DU provide a lot more depth at forward and breakout ability from the defensemen. Of course I'm biased, but I'd venture to say that UW will be an even tougher challenge than DU in that regard, because I think our 3rd and 4th lines and our bottom D pairings are a lot better than what you'll find anywhere else in the nation.
RIT's success will have everything to do with how well they can shut that down. After this weekend, I'm convinced that they can do it to UW's top line and top defenders... how well will RIT's depth players do?
From someone who saw all 3 games in Albany, I'd say you're right on target here. I would expect the RIT/Wisconsin game to look a lot like the RIT/Denver game, with the Wisconsin pressure coming in waves across all lines. Denver did the same (as evidenced by 15-ish shots from their top line forwards and 40 shots overall as a team), but RIT was able to keep most of the Denver play out on the perimeter of the offensive zone. The shots were numerous but not as many quality shots as Denver probably expected to get. Denver players were visibly frustrated (i.e. smashing sticks on ice and shaking heads) in the 2nd and 3rd periods as they continued to pour longer range shots at the net but DiMichiel was steady and the defense took decent care of rebounds.
DiMichiel will have to be red hot again vs Wisconsin and RIT will have to convert any odd man chances they get in order to win. I've only seen one Wisconsin game and one Denver game, but im my opinion, Wisconsin looks more talented than Denver. I expect them to ring up 30-40 shots like Denver did.
I don't think Cornell looked good at all offensively, and they didn't really expose UNH defensively or goaltending-wise. In the RIT/UNH game, when RIT scored their 2nd goal to go up 2-1, I think UNH was shocked a bit that they were behind again, and they were having trouble generating quality chances and solving DiMichiel. It may have been surprising to them that RIT was so aggressive in transition play and kept coming offensively, and suddenly UNH imploded for 90 seconds and it was 4-1. They suffered breakdowns defensively and goaltending-wise and I would not expect Wisconsin to do the same.
Everyone I've spoken with who saw those 3 games seems to agree on a few points:
- RIT scoring first in both games was huge. If they score first against Wisconsin, its a different game than if Wisconsin gets ahead early.
- DiMichiel is playing with a very high level of confidence, as is the RIT defense, and this gives the confidence to the RIT forwards to pressure heavily and really generate chances as they transition out of their own zone. They actually had a lot of odd man rushes vs Denver (which I didn't expect to see against Denver), but didn't convert them. They will need to convert those against Wisconsin.
- When Wisconsin sets up in the RIT zone, RIT will go to great lengths to keep the middle clear and force everything along the boards and to the point. How Wisconsin reacts to that and generates chances anyway will be important. I think both Denver and UNH players made reference to this as the "RIT system" in the post game interviews. Denver did not react well to this tactic, and UNH seemed to do a better job handling this before the 3 goal outburst killed them mentally.
- RIT is a 4 seed but they clearly don't care about seedings or PWR. They keep coming and coming. So, if Wisconsin forgets the seeding thing and the perceived talent disparity and just treats RIT as they would any other equally skilled opponent, it will serve them well. Denver got sloppy with the puck at times, almost as if they didn't think RIT could capitalize, and they did (first goal). Bobby Butler from UNH made reference to RIT having the skill to bury your mistakes if you make them.
Should be a great game. Looking forward to it.