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Elections 2012 -- Kull Wahad!!!

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Re: Elections 2012 -- Kull Wahad!!!

joecct said:
Huh? You just described 75% of the Congress.
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None of 'em has ever tried to bribe his way into a Senate seat, to the best of my knowledge. Anyway, in terms of stupidity, JJ jr.'s evidently at the top of the rate card: Joe Kennedy stupid. Sheila Jackson Lee stupid.
 
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Re: Elections 2012 -- Kull Wahad!!!

<iframe width="420" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/u1hnwvWhbJw" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>.
 
Re: Elections 2012 -- Kull Wahad!!!

mookie1995 said:
easy choice for mookie's top 27 movies!! ;)
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Hoover: Kent is a legacy, Otter. His brother was a '59, Fred Dorfman.
Flounder: He said legacies usually get asked to pledge automatically.
Otter: Oh, well, usually. Unless the pledge in question turns out to be a real closet-case.
Otter, Boon: Like Fred
 
Re: Elections 2012 -- Kull Wahad!!!

mookie1995 said:
easy choice for mookie's top 27 movies!! ;)
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And don't forget, Bluto wound up in the Senate. :)

frame_animal_house_88.jpg
 
Re: Elections 2012 -- Kull Wahad!!!

Per Reuters:

Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney appears to be in the final stages of deciding who to pick as his vice presidential running mate, with speculation growing that he has narrowed his choice down to a short-list of three.

Ohio Senator Rob Portman, former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty and Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal all offer various strengths to Romney should he decide to pick one of them to join his battle to unseat President Barack Obama and his vice president, Joe Biden, in the November 6 election.
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Re: Elections 2012 -- Kull Wahad!!!

No one cares who the VP choice is. They vote for President and that will be Mitt Romney.
 
Re: Elections 2012 -- Kull Wahad!!!

Priceless said:
Per Reuters:
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Interesting. POTUS was speculating this morning on Rubio. I think he would be a strong choice for the GOP, not just for this ticket but going forward.

This is not meant as snark in any way: what would TPaw bring to a ticket? Is he supposed to be Mitt's conservative bona fides? Since any veep will have that, I don't see what else TPaw has going for him.
 
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Re: Elections 2012 -- Kull Wahad!!!

Kepler said:
Interesting. POTUS was speculating this morning on Rubio. I think he would be a strong choice for the GOP, not just for this ticket but going forward.

This is not meant as snark in any way: what would TPaw bring to a ticket? Is he supposed to be Mitt's conservative bona fides? Since any veep will have that, I don't see what else TPaw has going for him.
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TPaw is the only one of them more boring than Romney. They don't want another Sarah Palin situation where the VP is out staging the Presidential candidate.
 
Re: Elections 2012 -- Kull Wahad!!!

Good article about the efficacy of the Bain ads (though be warned: the first half of the article is about a related but different topic, which is atypically bad construction by Silver).

The economic model part:

Our economic model, which looks at a wider array of economic indicators than the other ones do, is a bit more equivocal. Essentially, it suggests that Mr. Obama’s narrow lead in the polls is broadly consistent with the economy’s lukewarm performance.

There are two things to keep in mind when interpreting this evidence. First, Mr. Obama’s lead in the polls — about 2 points — would reflect a below-average performance for an incumbent. Since World War II, elected incumbent presidents have won by an average of 7.5 points when seeking a second term.

Second, the historical evidence seems quite definitive that the public reacts more to the change in economic performance — that is, the rate of growth in crucial economic indicators in the year or so leading up to the election — than to how strong the economy is in an absolute sense. Over the last 100 years, there has been literally no relationship between the unemployment rate on Election Day — a measure of how completely the economy is fulfilling its productive potential — and the election result.

But there have been positive and statistically significant relationships between the growth rate in the economy — as measured by G.D.P., jobs, income and other indicators — and the election result.

The recent rate of growth — about 2 percent across an average of indicators, which is below average but not recessionary — points to a below-average but not necessarily losing position for Mr. Obama. Mr. Obama may also be helped somewhat by the fairly low rate of inflation, which receives some weight in our model — and, we think, also, in voters’ perceptions about how the economy is performing. It’s a little easier to adjust to a new but mediocre “normal” if grocery prices aren’t rising every time you go to the supermarket.
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The Bain part:

In recent days, however, Mr. Romney’s campaign has begun to behave like Bain Capital is more of a negative factor than a positive or even neutral one. Instead of pointing to successes like Staples — and pointing out that some of Mr. Obama’s claims about the outsourcing that has allegedly occurred at some other Bain investments is factually dubious — they have instead begun to behave as though Bain Capital’s track record is nothing to be proud of.

In going on all five major news networks in a set of interviews on Friday night, Mr. Romney claimed that he was not responsible for decisions that Bain Capital made from 1999 — when he began to run the Salt Lake City Olympics — to 2002, when he began to run for governor of Massachusetts.

But voters may read between the lines in ways that Mr. Romney does not intend. If Mr. Romney is striving to avoid responsibility for whatever Bain Capital did from 1999 to 2002, it may suggest to them that some of the investments that Bain Capital made during this period were dubious.

Meanwhile, Mr. Romney may find it harder to claim the moral high ground when the details of what Bain did are murky — and Mr. Romney does not seem inclined to shed light on them, like by releasing more years of his tax returns.

In other words, Mr. Romney has in some ways begun to ignore his pollsters’ advice. Instead of being more forthright in his defense of Bain’s activities — a strategy that seemed to be roughly achieving a draw in the public’s eyes — he has been in damage-control mode, and has not necessarily been adroit at it.
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Put concisely, as somebody pointed out a few days ago, "it's never the crime that kills you... it's the coverup."
 
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Re: Elections 2012 -- Kull Wahad!!!

Kepler said:
Good article about the efficacy of the Bain ads (though be warned: the first half of the article is about a related but different topic, which is atypically bad construction by Silver).

The economic model part:
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The economic part seems reasonable. The economy isn't falling apart, but isn't very strong either. If it tilts one way or the other a bit, that could play a big role in who wins in November.
 
Re: Elections 2012 -- Kull Wahad!!!

Bob Gray said:
Seems reasonable. The economy isn't falling apart, but isn't very strong either. If it tilts one way or the other a bit, that could play a big role in who wins in November.
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Right.

I was shocked, though, that there is literally zero correlation between unemployment and re-election. That's severely counter-intuitive.
 
Re: Elections 2012 -- Kull Wahad!!!

Kepler said:
Right.

I was shocked, though, that there is literally zero correlation between unemployment and re-election. That's severely counter-intuitive.
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I guess it's because most of the public doesn't pay attention to the specific economic numbers very much, but does pay attention enough to get a sense of whether numbers are getting better or not.
 
Re: Elections 2012 -- Kull Wahad!!!

Bob Gray said:
I guess it's because most of the public doesn't pay attention to the specific economic numbers very much, but does pay attention enough to get a sense of whether numbers are getting better or not.
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I was thinking happiness doesn't correlate with altitude when you're falling. :)

I would like to see the correlation against the delta in unemployment rate. It makes intuitive sense that people are more comfortable with an unemployment rate of 7% that just decreased from 8% than 6% which just increased from 5%.
 
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