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Elections 2012 -- Kull Wahad!!!

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Re: Elections 2012 -- Kull Wahad!!!

Kepler said:
Don't laugh, people voted for JFK for those reasons, and people voted for Reagan because they mixed him up with the roles he played in the movies.

The first principle of advertising is that packaging sells more products than content.
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I'm not laughing because I'm aware millions cast there votes based on reasoning that's less than sound...and I don't mean political reasoning.
 
Re: Elections 2012 -- Kull Wahad!!!

bronconick said:
Well, if there's ever a year where a libertarian can justify "throwing his vote away", this is it.
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Pet peeve: I hate third party voting being called "throwing your vote away." (I know that by quoting it you weren't making the charge).

My Euro friends have convinced me we need IRV. I think that would make the third party vote jump to at least around 8-10%. It would also be fascinating to tabulate what the second choice was for Libertarians -- plenty of arguments to be made for either of the majors.
 
Re: Elections 2012 -- Kull Wahad!!!

Kepler said:
Don't laugh, people voted for JFK for those reasons, and people voted for Reagan because they confused him with the roles he played in the movies. (He did, too.)

The first principle of advertising is that packaging sells more products than content.
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And people voted against JFK because they felt we would be overcome by the Pontiff.
 
Re: Elections 2012 -- Kull Wahad!!!

I second walrus' astute analysis. Listening to NPR today I have to laugh at the doom and gloom coverage. Yes the economy is weak (as opposed to losing jobs though) and all that. However, the bottome line which their idiotic coverage missed is people just don't like Mitt Romney. Some politicans have trouble with the fringe of their base but appeal to indepedents. Clinton is a good example. Some appeal strongly to their base and independents like Reagan. Both of these men also had some crossover appeal. Romney is disliked by Dems so no crossover votes. Independents don't like him either. Worse, his own party isn't thrilled about him. The last thoroughly unlikable person to win election took place forty four years ago in a much different era.

I was also reading a righty newspaper and listening to a radio show and two seperate yakkers brought up the 1980 race. Cons, I respectfully ask that you move past a race that happened thirty freakin' two years ago! The dynamics affecting that contest have zero bearing on this one.
 
Re: Elections 2012 -- Kull Wahad!!!

Rover said:
I second walrus' astute analysis. Listening to NPR today I have to laugh at the doom and gloom coverage. Yes the economy is weak (as opposed to losing jobs though) and all that. However, the bottome line which their idiotic coverage missed is people just don't like Mitt Romney. Some politicans have trouble with the fringe of their base but appeal to indepedents. Clinton is a good example. Some appeal strongly to their base and independents like Reagan. Both of these men also had some crossover appeal. Romney is disliked by Dems so no crossover votes. Independents don't like him either. Worse, his own party isn't thrilled about him. The last thoroughly unlikable person to win election took place forty four years ago in a much different era.

I was also reading a righty newspaper and listening to a radio show and two seperate yakkers brought up the 1980 race. Cons, I respectfully ask that you move past a race that happened thirty freakin' two years ago! The dynamics affecting that contest have zero bearing on this one.
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With all that dislike of Romney, he's still within shouting distance (or closer depending on the poll) of Obama.
 
Re: Elections 2012 -- Kull Wahad!!!

Bob Gray said:
With all that dislike of Romney, he's still within shouting distance (or closer depending on the poll) of Obama.
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No doubt, but he'll need a double dip recession to put him over the finish line. Think of the race as a 48%-44% split. No Republican or Democrat is going to end up lower than 45-46% in a two way race so give him a few more easy points. Mittens problem is finding the other 4% since he's a known (and not very well liked) commodity.
 
Re: Elections 2012 -- Kull Wahad!!!

Bob Gray said:
With all that dislike of Romney, he's still within shouting distance (or closer depending on the poll) of Obama.
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Definitely, true. OTOH, despite the bad economy Obama is still ahead overall (about 51-48) and in the EV breakdown (north of 300). He shouldn't be.

I don't know whether it's because Romney is unpopular or the GOP is unpopular, but either way it's surprising. It feels very 2004.

RNC convention is 27-30 August
DNC convention is 3-6 September

None of the polling before around 15 September really means anything.
 
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Re: Elections 2012 -- Kull Wahad!!!

I guess the race comes down to who has the least bad perceptions toward them in the next few months, which is a rather depressing way for a President to be selected. But I guess that's not that different than a number of other recent elections.
 
Re: Elections 2012 -- Kull Wahad!!!

Bob Gray said:
I guess the race comes down to who has the least bad perceptions toward them in the next few months, which is a rather depressing way for a President to be selected. But I guess that's not that different than a number of other recent elections.
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True. Whoever makes the second-to-last mistake wins.
 
Re: Elections 2012 -- Kull Wahad!!!

Romney will win. Obama's not going to overcome the unemployment numbers and the huge deficit climb. If Romney was even remotely likeable this race would already be over.

The GOP gets no points for choosing a candidate that doesn't reflect their true values.
 
Re: Elections 2012 -- Kull Wahad!!!

ScoobyDoo said:
The GOP gets no points for choosing a candidate that doesn't reflect their true values.
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That's too harsh. He's wealthy, disdainful, and knows nothing about foreign policy. That reflects their true values.
 
Re: Elections 2012 -- Kull Wahad!!!

ScoobyDoo said:
Romney will win. Obama's not going to overcome the unemployment numbers and the huge deficit climb. If Romney was even remotely likeable this race would already be over.

The GOP gets no points for choosing a candidate that doesn't reflect their true values.
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Unemployment numbers may be a problem for Obama, but only a tiny slice of the American populace has the deficit climb near the forefront of their electoral radar screen.
 
Re: Elections 2012 -- Kull Wahad!!!

Bob Gray said:
Unemployment numbers may be a problem for Obama, but only a tiny slice of the American populace has the deficit climb near the forefront of their electoral radar screen.
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Not that tiny.

Pew Research Center. June 7-17, 2012. N=1,563 registered voters nationwide. Margin of error ± 2.9.


"Which ONE of the following issues matters most to you in deciding your vote for president this year: jobs, the budget deficit, health care, Social Security, immigration, or gay marriage?" Options rotated

%


Jobs
35


Budget deficit
23


Health care
19


Social Security
11


Immigration
5


Gay marriage
4


Other (vol.)
2
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Re: Elections 2012 -- Kull Wahad!!!

Bob Gray said:
Do you really believe that a sizable chunk of voters will move one direction or the other due to their views on the federal budget deficit? I'll believe it when I see it.
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The GOP's ENTIRE economic plan is based on it. So, yes. It's not like they have a jobs bill, or a tax plan, or a health care plan. They want you to believe that if they just paid their bills in Washington your life would be so much better.
 
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