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Elections 2012: Congressional and Gubernatorial

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Re: Elections 2012: Congressional and Gubernatorial

Interesting (desperation?) strategy from Linda McMahon: she is now running ads showing people saying "I'm going to vote for Barack Obama...and Linda McMahon" and then showing people how to vote for her on the "Independent" line (that's actually the name of a party on the balllot for which she has the nomination).

Third-party ballot lines in Connecticut can have tremendous impact: in 2010, the Republican candidate for Governor received more votes than the Democrat candidate for Governor, yet the Democrat is in the State House because he receved a few thousand votes on the Working Families' Party line, and it was those few thousand votes (plus the extra votes cast for him in Bridgeport after the polls were supposed to have closed) that put him over the top.
 
FlagDUDE08 said:
Not sure if serious...
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Deadly serious Flaggy. I like to have people of competence representing my party. The Mass delegation post-Kennedy is at a low point. Used to be men like O'Neil, Moakley, and Conte (yes I realize he was a Repub) headed up the delegation. Now they're so invisible that a guy like Barney Frank stands out as some sort of bright light for the state. This is why I've mentioned repeatedly that the only, and I mean only, person who realistically could have given Brown a run for his money this year was Warren. Not the Gov, Lt Gov, any Congressmen, etc. Half of the enthusiasm from her supporters stems from actually having a quality person running for the seat. Were I Scott Brown, win, lose or draw I'd go back to DC after the election and punch Mitch McConnell in the head. All they had to do was allow the recess appointment for her and he'd be cruising to a double digit win right now.

PS - Don't get me started on the state legislature...
 
Re: Elections 2012: Congressional and Gubernatorial

Craig P. said:
If you believe that God is omniscient and omnipotent, then you must necessarily believe that God wants bad things to happen to good people.
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Not to get all theological on you, but typically the way God is presented, S/He doesn't "want" anything. S/He doesn't have human desires. It is not "necessarily" at all.

The concept is, it's not what happens to us, it is how we respond to what happens to us that gives us free will, and allowing us to exercise free will in response to adversity (or in response to prosperity for that matter! how do people behave when things go well? do they take personal credit, or express gratitude?) is supposedly part of Her/His plan, not the events themselves.
 
Re: Elections 2012: Congressional and Gubernatorial

So with about 12 days left-what does everyone think the new congress will look like? How many seats change hands if any? My own guess is the GOP picks up 1 net seat in the Senate (not even close to what they expected a while ago) and loses a few seats in the House but maintains a very narrow majority there.(Again not what the GOP had expected) Perhaps someone will start a pool on the eventual numbers?
 
Re: Elections 2012: Congressional and Gubernatorial

I don't expect a big change in either the Senate or House, with parties retaining their respective control over each. Maybe a little tightening in each, but nothing major.
 
DrDemento said:
So with about 12 days left-what does everyone think the new congress will look like? How many seats change hands if any? My own guess is the GOP picks up 1 net seat in the Senate (not even close to what they expected a while ago) and loses a few seats in the House but maintains a very narrow majority there.(Again not what the GOP had expected) Perhaps someone will start a pool on the eventual numbers?
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A good time to update predictions.

For Senate, I'd say GOP gains net +1, Indy's +1, Dems -2 so you'd have a 51-48-1 Senate. As to the individual races:

GOP wins: NE, MT, AZ, ND

Dem wins: FL, VA, WI, PA, MO, MA, CT, OH

Indy wins: ME

Wildcard: NV, IN

As you can tell, I think how the state goes for Prez says a lot about who wins for Senate. Scott Brown has run a much better race than I thought he would, but his problem is his opponent hasn't screwed up and he'll need an incredible amount of ticket splitters. Same dynamic in ND, where Dem candidate has done far better than expected but Berg isn't a laughingstock like Akin and he's better funded so I think he pulls through. This will play out in so called toss up races in CT, AZ, MT, and OH. In FL I think Nelson can survive a narrow Romney victory because Mack isn't a good challenger.

Too many races have opened up for GOP to go after King now in ME. Regarding MO I was reluctant to call this one Dem but Akin is a non stop gaffe making machine. He's also broke and with a Libertarian on the ballot Romney voters have an out to take advantage of.

That leaves NV and IN. Berkeley is a bad candidate. Only thing that may keep her afloat is GOTV operation in state. If useless Harry Reid could pull of a 5 point victory, anything is possible. Indiana to me is all about bitter Lugar and his supporters blowing off Murdoch out of spite. I don't think enough of them will do so but its possible.

For the House Dems pick up 10 seats. They'll lose a dozen in retirement/redistricting but pick up 20+ on the strength of CA, IL, and NY as well as some unqualified nutjobs who won in wave last time getting turfed (Allen West for example).
 
Re: Elections 2012: Congressional and Gubernatorial

Humorous political attacks in both directions. You know the election is getting close when the silliness meter starts pegging.

The Democratic candidate for mayor in Glendale Arizona attacks his opponent for moving a potted plant.
http://www.azfamily.com/news/Glendale-mayoral-candidate-accuses-opponent-of-causing-property-damage-at-Capitol-175649351.html

And the Republicans in South Dakota are going after the Democratic candidate for holding corndog parties.
http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/gop-south-dakota-slams-dem-corndog-parties-155643834--election.html
 
Re: Elections 2012: Congressional and Gubernatorial

Rover -- I think you forgot one

MD (Cardin - D) is up for election. It will stay Blue, unless Ben does something really stupid.
 
Re: Elections 2012: Congressional and Gubernatorial

joecct said:
Rover -- I think you forgot one

MD (Cardin - D) is up for election. It will stay Blue, unless Ben does something really stupid.
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NY's also up, but I wouldn't put a bet on Gillibrand losing the seat if you paid me.
 
Re: Elections 2012: Congressional and Gubernatorial

FlagDUDE08 said:
NY's also up, but I wouldn't put a bet on Gillibrand losing the seat if you paid me.
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The poll I saw on the news this morning had Gillibrand with something like a 60-35 edge.
 
Re: Elections 2012: Congressional and Gubernatorial

Yeah, sorry I was only trying to run down contests that are considered close. Cardin, Gillenbrand, etc no surprises there.

While I understand the concept of finite resources, I thought the Dems really dropped the ball in Rust Belt recruiting for Congress. You could realistically have a scenario where Obama takes PA, OH, NJ, and WI....and the party nets zero seats in the House in those states.
 
Re: Elections 2012: Congressional and Gubernatorial

These aren't office races, but they're on the ballot for Minnesotans this year. SCSU released its annual polling results, this time it focused on the MN State Constitutional amendments proposed.

A majority of Minnesota voters are opposed to a proposed constitutional amendment limiting marriage to one man and one woman, according to results released Wednesday by the St. Cloud State University Survey. The annual poll found that 51 percent of respondents are opposed to the amendment, while 44 percent support it.

The SCSU Survey also found strong support for the proposed constitutional amendment requiring voters to produce photo identification at the polls. Of those surveyed, 55 percent indicated support for the measure, while 39 percent stated opposition.

The annual survey was conducted from October 15 to 21. It included 601 respondents, 272 on cell phones and 329 on land lines. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.
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http://politicsinminnesota.com/2012/10/scsu-survey-voters-poised-to-defeat-marriage-amendment-pass-photo-id/
 
Re: Elections 2012: Congressional and Gubernatorial

FlagDUDE08 said:
Is it bad that there's a certain part of me that's hoping for a specific outcome?
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One wonders if he receives the same medical care that any of us would?? I suspect his deductible is less than mine
 
Re: Elections 2012: Congressional and Gubernatorial

Congresscritters probably passed a law eliminating their deductibles (and any other kinds of payments they would ever have to make in life) decades ago.

Hell, I'd almost guarantee that given what I've read about what Michigan's state reps and senators get for health coverage and lifetime benefits. Our term limits are likely going to bite the state in the *** in a few decades when we have 8 former house reps from each district still alive.
 
Re: Elections 2012: Congressional and Gubernatorial

bronconick said:
Congresscritters probably passed a law eliminating their deductibles (and any other kinds of payments they would ever have to make in life) decades ago.

Hell, I'd almost guarantee that given what I've read about what Michigan's state reps and senators get for health coverage and lifetime benefits. Our term limits are likely going to bite the state in the *** in a few decades when we have 8 former house reps from each district still alive.
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Not quite --> http://www.factcheck.org/2009/08/health-care-for-members-of-congress/
Harry would have a choice for his health insurance -- I'm not sure if it would be DC (where he works) or NV (where he lives).

His choices for Nevada: http://www.opm.gov/INSURE/HEALTH/PLANINFO/2013/states/nv.asp
His choices for DC: http://www.opm.gov/INSURE/HEALTH/PLANINFO/2013/states/dc.asp
 
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