Elections 2012 -- Carrion My Wayward Son!

[geezer]

Re: Elections 2012 -- Carrion My Wayward Son!

Romney's playing the role of the tortoise. If nothing changes, he won't win. There are still quite a few possible events (admittedly, most will have negative impact on the US and our economy) where he can pull ahead and win.

I don't think that's true in this election. Look at the old standbys - if there's a terrorist attack, Romney has the foreign policy not of a rock-ribbed conservative, but of a confused piglet in a straw house. If there's an economic crash, Romney has no answer at all except to go back to the Bush ideals of spend more without taxing. If there's an economic recovery, Obama gets the credit. If a giant asteroid is detected heading for earth or any other number of things, Obama is simply a more trustworthy seeming leader.

Advantage everything: Obama. There was never a doubt about who would win.

 

[Bill]

Re: Elections 2012 -- Carrion My Wayward Son!

Fresh, that's just bad logic.

The tax share of the rich increases after a cut in the top marginal rate only because the income share of the rich increases. It's not an indicator of a growing economy, it's an indicator of growing inequality.

So you don't dispute that cutting income taxes at the top marginal rate actually raises tax revenue.

 

[bronconick]

Re: Elections 2012 -- Carrion My Wayward Son!

You rarely go wrong betting on the stupidity of the American public. I'm frankly shocked (and it's driving the handful of hardcore Mitt fans I know insane) that Bush is still taking heat for the status of the economy when he left office. I'm really surprised the "Obama tried, but he's not good enough to fully fix the economy" meme isn't working better.

Maybe it's because they were so obstructionist that even our collective 22 second attention span noticed McConnell's words and his party's actions.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Elections 2012 -- Carrion My Wayward Son!

OK, I stand corrected. Apparently a lot of people here do think Obama's a lock.

(I think they're crazy. We've had a knife edge electorate for 3 elections and all it takes is an implosion in some Euro capital and/or a severe financial report a month before the election).

 

[Rover]

Re: Elections 2012 -- Carrion My Wayward Son!

So you don't dispute that cutting income taxes at the top marginal rate actually raises tax revenue.

I dispute that 100%. That idea is as worn out as a 30 year old calendar and has the same amount of usefulness too.

 

[Bob Gray]

Re: Elections 2012 -- Carrion My Wayward Son!

Obama's a lock. Romney never had a prayer.

They said the same for Bush Sr. when Clinton got the Dem nomination. The race has been remarkably static recently, but a lot can happen in the next few months.

 

[FreshFish]

Re: Elections 2012 -- Carrion My Wayward Son!

I dispute that 100%. That idea is as worn out as a 30 year old calendar and has the same amount of usefulness too.

Sure, the IRS and CBO are completely unreliable sources.....why would you ever trust actual evidence and data when the strength of your righteousness is so profound?

 

[SJHovey]

Re: Elections 2012 -- Carrion My Wayward Son!

I dispute that 100%. That idea is as worn out as a 30 year old calendar and has the same amount of usefulness too.

30 year old calendar, yes. But a 28 year old calendar, now that's actually quite useful.

 

[joecct]

It's only about 2:1 Obama right now and everybody knows we are way too far out to have any certainty.

What makes you think most people here think Obama is a lock? Are you setting up a talking point ("boy won't you know-it-alls be surprised" etc etc), or do you mean something?

It may be my myopic eyes, but it seems to me that a majority of the posters are Democrat and intend to vote for BHO no matter what.

My query was if Romney wins in November, will it be because Obama lost or did Romney do something to win??

 

[FreshFish]

Re: Elections 2012 -- Carrion My Wayward Son!

My query was if Romney wins in November, will it be because Obama lost or did Romney do something to win??

Since Romney so far has been running an "I'm not him" campaign, it seems to me that Romney will have to do something to win. So far he is merely playing not to lose, and that won't cut it.

I am quite disappointed in his "campaign" so far. A few months ago, it looked promising, they effectively countered every attack ad. However, there is no positiive message coming forth at all, none! And Romney has really blown the big opportunities he's been presented with as well. he could have turned the income tax kerfluffle into a positive by using his own returns to demonstrate the need for fewer deductions, for example.

For awhile I thought he was biding his time, treading water so to speak, waiting for the convention, at which time he'd make a powerful positive case for something. Now, I'm not so sure.


At least we know Obama is in favor of demagogery, class warfare, and spend spend spend. Lots of people like that. He even has a cheering section here that revels in it like it was an Olympic sport.

 

[Rover]

Re: Elections 2012 -- Carrion My Wayward Son!

Sure, the IRS and CBO are completely unreliable sources.....why would you ever trust actual evidence and data when the strength of your righteousness is so profound?

Could it be that revenues would have gone up regardless, but just went up less than they could have due to tax givaways? Since the economy generally grows year over year, it makes sense tax revenue would too even after tinkering with the rates. When you're borrowing money to do so (called "Reaganism") its a stupid idea.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Elections 2012 -- Carrion My Wayward Son!

It may be my myopic eyes, but it seems to me that a majority of the posters are Democrat and intend to vote for BHO no matter what.

My query was if Romney wins in November, will it be because Obama lost or did Romney do something to win??

I can't remember if we've ever done an affiliation poll. We did do that Nolan bi-directional political thingy and it actually seemed to be roughly thirds liberal, libertarian, conservative (nobody ever declares themselves an authoritarian for some reason )

Generally speaking I think incumbents lose more than challengers win. But in the recent presidential recent cases:

68 Humphrey (well, the Dems) lost more than Nixon won
80 Carter lost AND Reagan won
92 Bush didn't lose as much as Clinton won

To keep the 12-year cycle going:

04 Dubya lost but Kerry lost even worse

 

[5mn_Major]

Re: Elections 2012 -- Carrion My Wayward Son!

Obama's a lock. Romney never had a prayer.

I'd put it at about what Silver's got it at...70/30 likelihood of Obama.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Elections 2012 -- Carrion My Wayward Son!

I think the more fun question right now is, "Do the Tax Returns matter"?

I personally think they do. But, I doubt most of the southern poor or middle class folk care either way and are going to go "R" no matter what. That's why I'm positive Romney's a lock. He'll have the most locked up base votes. The "right" is running a anything but Democrat (anything but Obama) race right now and it's going to work.

 

[geezer]

Re: Elections 2012 -- Carrion My Wayward Son!

I think the more fun question right now is, "Do the Tax Returns matter"?

I'll put the answer to that conspiracy theory this way: they matter as much as O's Columbia transcripts do.

To put it another way: Harry Reid yesterday refused to release his own tax returns (and he's been O's main attack dog on this earth-shaking issue).

 

[mookie1995]

Re: Elections 2012 -- Carrion My Wayward Son!

Could it be that revenues would have gone up regardless, but just went up less than they could have due to tax givaways? Since the economy generally grows year over year, it makes sense tax revenue would too even after tinkering with the rates. When you're borrowing money to do so (called "Reaganism") its a stupid idea.

all y'all are just arguing to hear yourselves. the original post was tax 'share'. or your share (%) of tax revenue received by the gov'ment. so the one example where the top 1% paid 21% before, then 25% afterwards is very simply stated that of all the tax rev stolen by washington, 1/5th came from the richies, now one quarter came from them. not flipping rocket science. i didn't read the total mass went up or down from that simple analysis.

 

[Rover]

Re: Elections 2012 -- Carrion My Wayward Son!

all y'all are just arguing to hear yourselves. the original post was tax 'share'. or your share (%) of tax revenue received by the gov'ment. so the one example where the top 1% paid 21% before, then 25% afterwards is very simply stated that of all the tax rev stolen by washington, 1/5th came from the richies, now one quarter came from them. not flipping rocket science. i didn't read the total mass went up or down from that simple analysis.

I wasn't commenting on the original post. I was responding to a subsequent one.

Tax issue won't hurt Romney in of itself, but it helps fill a narrative of a spoiled rich guy used to playing by his own set of rules. Sound familiar? Kinda reminds me of the last Republican President. Were Mittens a likeable guy people might not care. Given his approval ratings are somewhere between "used car saleman" and "telemarketer" this ain't helping any. Regarding idiot Harry Reid, even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in awhile. Every day righties spend arguing with a guy the Democrats can't even stand is a day they look more befuddled. Meanwhile Obama stays above the fray.

Think of it like Sarah Palin. Seeing Russia from her house didn't make people think ill of her. They already did and that helped cement the narrative even more about not wanting a ditz one heartbeat away from the Presidency when the top of the ticket was a frail old geezer. With Mittens the question is do we really want to go back to Bush era policies? Really all Romney needs is a fake Texas accent and he may as well be GWB.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Elections 2012 -- Carrion My Wayward Son!

I think the more fun question right now is, "Do the Tax Returns matter"?

I don't think they matter. Put it this way: what are the most damaging scenarios? (1) He paid zero taxes in 2009. The people who will be offended by that are already voting against him; the others will say "he took losses and it was legal." (2) He under-tithed to his church. Nobody will care except Mormon Inc. (3) He used every trick in the book to hide his income. Same as (1).

Not releasing the returns makes him look like he's covering up something, but his supporters will simply identify him as A Fellow Victim. They blamed the media for Palin exposing herself as an idiot; they're inoculated against logical criticism of their own candidate.

 

[FreshFish]

Re: Elections 2012 -- Carrion My Wayward Son!

odds-makers in Great Britain have it about 70% Obama 30% Romney

 

[Kepler]

Re: Elections 2012 -- Carrion My Wayward Son!

odds-makers in Great Britain have it about 70% Obama 30% Romney

Sounds about right.

Is there enough of a history to test whether those markets have shown predictive value? I started hearing about them around 2002.