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ECAC playoff predictions

Re: ECAC playoff predictions

FlagDUDE08 observes: "If Harvard beats Brown, we will have five clear tiers in the ECAC: 1-3, 4-6 fighting for that last home slot, RPI, 8-11 fighting for that last playoff slot, and Union."

What's further interesting is that, with one exception, each of seeds #1 through #6 will have a unique and palpable advantage unto itself to the extent that (1) the teams in each tier are on a parity with one another (which they appear to be) and (2) each team in a given tier is uniformly likely to prevail over any team in the next tier down (not entirely true in the real world, of course, as there have been quite a number of upsets this season). Following these assumptions slavishly:

Seed #1 will face a fourth-tier team, a second-tier team and a first-tier team, all at home
Seed #2 will face a third-tier team at home, a first-tier team at home and a first-tier team away
Seed #3 will face a second-tier team at home, a first-tier team away and a first-tier team away
Seed #4 will face a second-tier team at home, a first-tier team away and a first-tier team away
Seed #5 will face a second-tier team away, a first-tier team away and a first-tier team away
Seed #6 will face three first-tier teams, all away

In other words, being seeded #1, probably by a single point or a tiebreak, will give that team a significantly easier path to the championship and the autobid than the other first-tier teams will have.

Interestingly, on these assumptions there's no difference between being seeded #3 or #4.
 
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Re: ECAC playoff predictions

I like that RPI is a "tier" unto themselves. We've done pretty well beating the teams below us and losing to the teams above us (except for taking 3 from Dartmouth and losing to Brown).
 
Re: ECAC playoff predictions

Watson Rink said:
FlagDUDE08 observes: "If Harvard beats Brown, we will have five clear tiers in the ECAC: 1-3, 4-6 fighting for that last home slot, RPI, 8-11 fighting for that last playoff slot, and Union."

What's further interesting is that, with one exception, each of seeds #1 through #6 will have a unique and palpable advantage unto itself to the extent that (1) the teams in each tier are on a parity with one another (which they appear to be) and (2) each team in a given tier is uniformly likely to prevail over any team in the next tier down (not entirely true in the real world, of course, as there have been quite a number of upsets this season). Following these assumptions slavishly:

Seed #1 will face a fourth-tier team, a second-tier team and a first-tier team, all at home
Seed #2 will face a third-tier team at home, a first-tier team at home and a first-tier team away
Seed #3 will face a second-tier team at home, a first-tier team away and a first-tier team away
Seed #4 will face a second-tier team at home, a first-tier team away and a first-tier team away
Seed #5 will face a second-tier team away, a first-tier team away and a first-tier team away
Seed #6 will face three first-tier teams, all away

In other words, being seeded #1, probably by a single point or a tiebreak, will give that team a significantly easier path to the championship and the autobid than the other first-tier teams will have.

Interestingly, on these assumptions there's no difference between being seeded #3 or #4.
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Um, Watson, the semis and finals are played at the highest remaining seed's home rink. Thus your breakdown doesn't work if Seed #1 wins their quarterfinal round. Not that I wanted to add a layer of complexity but...

Also, I disagree with the tiers. I would group Harvard, Cornell and Clarkson in Tier One. SLU, Q-Pac and Dartmouth in Tier Two and whomever finishes 7th and 8th as Tier Three. From what I've seen this season, you don't really have that much difference in that lower tier. Adding a fourth tier is too much of a stretch.
 
Re: ECAC playoff predictions

The biggest games next week are going to be Clarkson vs. Harvard and Princeton vs. Brown. Each will go a long way towards determining not only a potential conference regular season champion, but also who could be in great position for the final playoff spot.
 
Re: ECAC playoff predictions

Skate79 said:
Um, Watson, the semis and finals are played at the highest remaining seed's home rink. Thus your breakdown doesn't work if Seed #1 wins their quarterfinal round. Not that I wanted to add a layer of complexity but...

Also, I disagree with the tiers. I would group Harvard, Cornell and Clarkson in Tier One. SLU, Q-Pac and Dartmouth in Tier Two and whomever finishes 7th and 8th as Tier Three. From what I've seen this season, you don't really have that much difference in that lower tier. Adding a fourth tier is too much of a stretch.
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Not to mention any re-seeding that takes place, since it isn't a true bracket, unlike the national tournament.

My definition of "tiers" was based upon placement potential from a purely mathematical standpoint. No hypothetics were involved whatsoever. If you want to make your own hypothetical tier argument, that's your prerogative, but at that point, we're comparing apples and oranges.
 
Re: ECAC playoff predictions

Skate79 said:
Still the incentive is quite a bit less if you know that you aren't playing beyond the 26th.
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Sometimes a team free of pressure plays loose, without fear of mistakes and ends up winning. Happens quite frequently actually. A few years ago a team last in the ECAC, played loose and free on the last day of the season, and knocked the higher ranked opponent out of a home playoff spot.
 
Re: ECAC playoff predictions

lugnut92 said:
I like that RPI is a "tier" unto themselves. We've done pretty well beating the teams below us and losing to the teams above us (except for taking 3 from Dartmouth and losing to Brown).
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Don't believe there is that many tiers, or that much separation between them. As recent results suggest there are many "unpredictable" results. Sometimes, no matter what tier teams are in, certain teams just play well against some other teams higher up based on match-ups and history. Recent results are proof of that.
 
Re: ECAC playoff predictions

FlagDUDE08 said:
The biggest games next week are going to be Clarkson vs. Harvard and Princeton vs. Brown. Each will go a long way towards determining not only a potential conference regular season champion, but also who could be in great position for the final playoff spot.
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I think SLU-Harvard is bigger than Clarkson-Harvard because home ice is also at stake for SLU, and, as I mentioned earlier, a Harvard loss to SLU is worse than a loss to Clarkson (if you had to pick one) because the loss to SLU helps keep Qpac (who Harvard swept) out of the ECAC top 4 and the national top 12.

The Clarkson game is probably at best going to decide who finishes 2nd if Harvard loses one of its other remaining games.
 
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Re: ECAC playoff predictions

dave1381 said:
I think SLU-Harvard is bigger than Clarkson-Harvard because home ice is also at stake for SLU, and, as I mentioned earlier, a Harvard loss to SLU is worse than a loss to Clarkson (if you had to pick one) because the loss to SLU helps keep Qpac (who Harvard swept) out of the ECAC top 4 and the national top 12.

The Clarkson game is probably at best going to decide who finishes 2nd if Harvard loses one of its other remaining games.
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Dartmouth/SLU also has the potential for being big, as Dartmouth still has an outside chance for a home slot.
 
Re: ECAC playoff predictions

FlagDUDE08 said:
Not to mention any re-seeding that takes place, since it isn't a true bracket, unlike the national tournament.

My definition of "tiers" was based upon placement potential from a purely mathematical standpoint. No hypothetics were involved whatsoever. If you want to make your own hypothetical tier argument, that's your prerogative, but at that point, we're comparing apples and oranges.
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I wasn't really going on hypotheticals - I was looking at both records and the teams involved as I have seen them play this season. Tier One is self explanatory. Tier Two is also pretty much as you have stated. It's the bottom tiers I have a problem with because from what I've seen, there just isn't that much of a difference in the quality of the teams. To add tiers at that point didn't make much sense to me even from a mathematical standpoint. But I get your thought process.
 
Re: ECAC playoff predictions

OnMAA said:
Sometimes a team free of pressure plays loose, without fear of mistakes and ends up winning. Happens quite frequently actually. A few years ago a team last in the ECAC, played loose and free on the last day of the season, and knocked the higher ranked opponent out of a home playoff spot.
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Very true. I'm just thinking that in this case, having to make a trip from New Haven on a Tuesday for a potentially meaningless game doesn't quite have the 'push' that the game would have if Yale were playing for the final playoff spot. Which still could happen. I just think that if Harvard gets up by a couple of goals early, Yale will probably raise the white flag if they have nothing to play for.
 
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Re: ECAC playoff predictions

OnMAA said:
Don't believe there is that many tiers, or that much separation between them. As recent results suggest there are many "unpredictable" results. Sometimes, no matter what tier teams are in, certain teams just play well against some other teams higher up based on match-ups and history. Recent results are proof of that.
Click to expand...

Yup. Case in point, Dartmouth v. Cornell. That tie had to hurt given it was Senior Night at Lynah. Dartmouth seems to play Cornell tough almost every time they meet and I daresay that the Big Red would like to avoid a first round matchup with the Green if at all possible. Lyndsey Holdcroft is playing very well at the moment and a hot goalie can steal a series. Same with Harvard and RPI. No matter what the records, we seem to have all sorts of problems with them. I don't want to see them in the first round.
 
Re: ECAC playoff predictions

I was looking at SLU's site and games against the Bobcats. Both were close games with the Bobcats coming from a goal down to win in Hamden and the teams playing to a 1-1 tie in Canton. So I'm not sure that home ice is that big a deal. SLU is a very good road team as evidenced by what they accomplished last year in the playoffs. If they meet again as it looks like they will in the first round, it looks like it will be more of the same. Close, hard fought games. I'm not sold on home ice being a factor in this series.
 
Re: ECAC playoff predictions

Skate79 said:
I'm not sold on home ice being a factor in this series.
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I'm not either, but I brought it up because whether Quinnipiac or SLU is 4th could decide whether Harvard or Cornell is No. 1, if Harvard splits the weekend. And I think home ice for the ECAC semis & final does matter.
 
Re: ECAC playoff predictions

Skate79 said:
Yup. Case in point, Dartmouth v. Cornell. That tie had to hurt given it was Senior Night at Lynah. Dartmouth seems to play Cornell tough almost every time they meet and I daresay that the Big Red would like to avoid a first round matchup with the Green if at all possible.
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Two years ago, there were three Big Red - Big Green match-ups late in the season, final regular season weekend, the ECAC final and the NCAA quarter final. Dartmouth handed Cornell it's only loss in the regular season that year during the last weekend of the season, but the Big Red made amends, winning the ECAC final 3-0 and the NCAA quarter 7-1 the next weekend.
 
Re: ECAC playoff predictions

David De Remer said:
I'm not either, but I brought it up because whether Quinnipiac or SLU is 4th could decide whether Harvard or Cornell is No. 1, if Harvard splits the weekend. And I think home ice for the ECAC semis & final does matter.
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Absolutely David especially in Harvard's case because they are a better home than road team. I was just commenting on an SLU-Q-Pac matchup; didn't really think about the implications of the first seed. It all plays in to how the final standings shake out and so yes, for Harvard and Cornell and the ECAC semis and final, it is huge.
 
Re: ECAC playoff predictions

OnMAA said:
Two years ago, there were three Big Red - Big Green match-ups late in the season, final regular season weekend, the ECAC final and the NCAA quarter final. Dartmouth handed Cornell it's only loss in the regular season that year during the last weekend of the season, but the Big Red made amends, winning the ECAC final 3-0 and the NCAA quarter 7-1 the next weekend.
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That was a loaded Big Red squad. Not to take anything away from Dartmouth but I didn't see them beating Cornell a second time that season. Too much talent on that Big Red squad to lose twice to the Green.

This year, I feel the teams are closer in skill level although you obviously give the edge to Cornell. Dartmouth is a dangerous sixth seed. Just sayin'.
 
Re: ECAC playoff predictions

One game tonight, but we'll still update.

Cor 33 - 37 [1-3]
Har 33 - 39 [1-3]
CCT 32 - 36 [1-3]
--- Home Lock - 30 () ---
SLU 27 - 31 [4-6]
Qui 25 - 29 [4-6]
Dar 24 - 28 [4-6]
--- Home Eligible - 27 () ---
RPI 18 - 22 [7]
--- In - 16 () ---
Pri 12 - 16 [8-11]
Col 11 - 15 [8-11]
Bro 10 - 14 [8-11]
Yal 9 - 15 [8-11]
--- Out - 12 () ---
Uni 4 - 8 [12]


REMAINING SCHEDULE:
Har: SLU, CCT, (Yal-2/26)
Cor: @RPI, @Uni
CCT: @Dar, @Har
SLU: @Har, @Dar
Qui: @Yal, @Bro
Dar: CCT, SLU
RPI: Cor, Col
Col: @Uni, @RPI
Pri: @Bro, @Yal
Yal: Qui, Pri, (@Har-2/26)
Bro: Pri, Qui
Uni: Col, Cor

RELEVANT TIEBREAKS OWNED:
Har: Qui, Dar, RPI, Pri, Uni, Bro
Cor: SLU, Col, Yal, Bro
CCT: Yal, Bro, RPI, Uni, Qui
SLU: Col, Yal, Bro, Uni, RPI, Pri
Qui: RPI, Pri, Uni, SLU
Dar: Pri, Uni, Bro, Yal, Col
RPI: Dar, Uni, Yal
Col: Pri
Pri: Uni
Yal: Col
Bro: Uni
Uni:

All teams may now be placed into one of five clusters: 1-3, 4-6, 7, 8-11, and 12. This is going to come down to the last games.
 
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