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ECAC playoff predictions

Re: Strength of remaining schedule

Re: Strength of remaining schedule

Eeyore said:
Other way around. A 'chink in the armor' means a spot where the links of mail are not properly joined, creating a weak spot. A Mercyhurst loss to Cornell creates a chink in MC's armor when it comes to getting an NCAA berth. It improves the chances of ECAC teams.
Click to expand...

:eek: Clearly a "chink in my English Armor". Double :o :o. (English is my third language). Fixed the post.
 
Re: ECAC playoff predictions

As earlier noted, the three current second-tier ECAC teams can and do make life tough for the three current top-tier teams. This weekend Dartmouth stung Harvard for one point and SLU stung Clarkson for two. The Clarkson result was the more significant, as they are currently down 3 points with H, D and Quinnipiac still to go, plus 3 other games that should produce 6 points. Even if they beat H to give them 8 new points, they are still down 3 and are not too likely to sweep D and Q. Their absolute ceiling (i.e. if they sweep) is a plus 9 (i.e. 12 new points after being down 3).

Cornell continues to have a slightly more advantageous schedule than H: down 1 point, it should get 6 points from second-division teams , and if it beats H it will have 8 new points plus up to 4 from D and Q, for a net ceiling of 11. In this scenario, H starts at the top of the standings, stands to get 6 points from second-division teams, by hypothesis loses to Cornell and then has to play Clarkson and SLU, against whom they've won only 2 (barely) out of a possible 4 points so far. So if Cornell beats H and runs the table otherwise, it gets the #1 seed; if Cornell stumbles against D and/or Q, H must get one more point out of Clarkson and SLU than Cornell gets out of D and Q in order to end up tied for #1. Since there would be a H2H tie, I don't know who would win the tiebreak or on what criteria.

Conversely, if H defeats Cornell, then H would have 8 points in hand plus its results against Clarkson and SLU versus a ceiling of 9 points for Cornell even if Cornell sweeps D and Q, leaving H on the inside track with only 1 point needed against Clarkson and SLU in order to go to a tiebreak against Cornell in which H would win the H2H comparison. Clarkson would be a dark horse in this scenario with a ceiling of 9 points if it beats H and otherwise runs the table. So if I'm doing this correctly, a H-SLU tie at the Bright could result in a three-way tie with H, Cornell and Clarkson each up 9 net points. What would happen then?
 
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Re: ECAC playoff predictions

Watson Rink said:
Conversely, if H defeats Cornell, then H would have 8 points in hand plus its results against Clarkson and SLU versus a ceiling of 9 points for Cornell even if Cornell sweeps D and Q, leaving H on the inside track with only 1 point needed against Clarkson and SLU in order to go to a tiebreak against Cornell in which H would win the H2H comparison. Clarkson would be a dark horse in this scenario with a ceiling of 9 points if it beats H and otherwise runs the table. So if I'm doing this correctly, a H-SLU tie at the Bright could result in a three-way tie with H, Cornell and Clarkson each up 9 net points. What would happen then?
Click to expand...

IIRC first tiebreak is head to head amongst all the teams tied.
 
Re: ECAC playoff predictions

OnMAA said:
IIRC first tiebreak is head to head amongst all the teams tied.
Click to expand...

Looked it up:

Its at the bottom of the schedule matrix page:

http://www.ecachockey.com/women/2012-13/standings


"ALBANY, N.Y. -- Following are the ECAC Women's Hockey Championship policies pertaining to seeding and tie-breaking procedures.

Seeding for championship competition is based on total points accumulated during league contests. In the event teams are tied in the final regular-season standings, the following tiebreakers (listed in order of application) shall be used to determine seeding. (Note: Only League games apply):

1. Comparison of game results between tied teams (head to head).
2. Wins.
3. Comparison of results of games against the top four teams.
4. Comparison of results of games against the top eight teams.
5. Goal differential in head-to-head competition.
6. Goal differential in games against the top four teams.
7. Goal differential in games against the top eight teams.

In the case of ties among three or more schools, the criteria will be used in order until a team, or teams, is separated from the pack. At that point, the process will begin anew to break the "new" tie. In other words, when a four-way tie becomes a three-way tie, the three-way tie is treated as a "new" tie and the process begins with the first criterion."
 
Re: ECAC playoff predictions

Gee, the bottom paragraph of the criteria seems counterintuitive to me. I'd assumed that in my three-way tie hypothetical, Clarkson would earn the #1 seed as it would have 3 wins in its 4 games against top-three teams versus 2 for Cornell and 1 for Harvard. But the final paragraph says that H would be eliminated and the Clarkson-Cornell match-up would go through the entire criteria from the top.

Cl-Co would be a H2H tie, neither team has any ties at this point, and I'm too lazy to make a lot of assumptions and go through criteria #3 through #7 if necessary to resolve the Cl-Co tiebreak. (I do know now that Cornell would win the tiebreak in my other hypothetical above because H would probably have a couple of ties in that hypothetical).
 
Re: ECAC playoff predictions

Watson Rink here is one scenario

Clarkson wins out, they are 19-3-0 this means they beat Harvard on the last day of play
Cornell Loses to H and wins all the others they are 19-3-0
Harvard loses to Clarkson on the last day and ties someone else, most likely SLU, they are 18-2-2

All 3 teams have 28 points so they are tied

Tiebreak Criteria #1 is head to head between the 3 teams

Clarkson is 3-1 (split with Cornell, sweep Harvard) 6 pts
Cornell is 1-3 (Split with Clarkson and 2 losses to Harvard) 2 Pts
Harvard is 2-2 (2 losses to Clarkson, sweep Cornell) 4 pts

Clarkson gets the #1 Seed
Harvard gets the #2 seed
Cornell gets the #3 seed

In any scenario where Clarkson, Harvard and Cornell are tied, as long as Clarkson beats Harvard they have 6 points and they will get the #1 seed because the best Cornell or Harvard can do is get 4 points.

My own opinion is this will probably not happen. I am not sure Clarkson can run the table and even if they do, I do not think Cornell, the way they are playing, will lose another game. My guess is

Cornell will be undefeated in the next 3 weeks and get the #1 seed (this means they beat Harvard)
Harvard will hang on for the #2 seed
Clarkson will end up #3
 
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Re: ECAC playoff predictions

1. Cornell 40 pts
2. Harvard 39 pts
3. Clarky 36 pts
4. SLU 31pts
5. QPac 26 pts
6. Darty 23 pts
7. RPI 21 pts
8. Princeton 16 PTS
 
Re: ECAC playoff predictions

Stat Man said:
1. Cornell 40 pts
2. Harvard 39 pts
3. Clarky 36 pts
4. SLU 31pts
5. QPac 26 pts
6. Darty 23 pts
7. RPI 21 pts
8. Princeton 16 PTS
Click to expand...

I would say there is a very good chance that this will be the top eight finishers in the ECAC

Playoffs:
Cornell- Prinny
Harvard- RPI
Clarkson- Dartmouth (This one should be a great series)
SLU- Quinny (Another Great Series)
 
Re: ECAC playoff predictions

Stealing from Todd on the HEA side... Very simple mathematical by points only, no consideration yet to tiebreakers, who teams are playing, etc.

--- Home Lock - 33 () ---
Har 29 - 41 [1-6]
Cor 28 - 40 [1-6]
CCT 26 - 38 [1-8]
--- In - 22 () ---
SLU 21 - 33 [1-9]
Qui 20 - 32 [1-10]
Dar 17 - 29 [1-11]
RPI 15 - 27 [3-12]
Pri 10 - 22 [4-12]
Col 9 - 21 [4-12]
--- Home Eligible - 21 () ---
Yal 8 - 20 [5-12]
Bro 6 - 18 [7-12]
Uni 3 - 15 [7-12]
--- Out - 10 () ---
 
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Re: ECAC playoff predictions

FlagDUDE08 said:
Stealing from Todd on the HEA side... Very simple mathematical by points only, no consideration yet to tiebreakers, who teams are playing, etc.

--- Home Lock - 33 () ---
Har 29 - 41 [1-10]
Cor 28 - 40 [1-10]
CCT 26 - 38 [1-10]
--- In - 22 () ---
SLU 21 - 33 [1-10]
Qui 20 - 32 [1-10]
Dar 17 - 29 [1-10]
RPI 15 - 27 [1-10]
Pri 10 - 22 [1-10]
Col 9 - 21 [1-10]
Yal 8 - 20 [3-10]
Bro 6 - 18 [3-10]
Uni 3 - 15 [3-10]
--- Home Eligible - 21 () ---
--- Out - 10 () ---
Click to expand...

No one will finish 11th and 12th? ;)
 
Re: ECAC playoff predictions

OK, now that I have some time to do this, it's time for some edits.

--- Home Lock - 33 () ---
Har 29 - 41 [1-6]
Cor 28 - 40 [1-6]
CCT 26 - 38 [1-8]
SLU 21 - 33 [1-8]
--- In - 21+ () ---
Qui 20 - 32 [1-10]
Dar 17 - 29 [2-11]
RPI 15 - 27 [3-11]
Pri 10 - 22 [4-12]
Col 9 - 21 [5-12]
--- Home Eligible - 21 () ---
Yal 8 - 20 [5-12]
Bro 6 - 18 [7-12]
Uni 3 - 15 [8-12]
--- Out - 10 () ---[/QUOTE]

REMAINING SCHEDULE:
Har: Yal, Bro, @Cor, @Col, SLU, CCT
Cor: @Qui, @Pri, Har, Dar, @RPI, @Uni
CCT: @RPI, @Uni, Pri, Qui, @Dar, @Har
SLU: @Uni, @RPI, Qui, Pri, @Har, @Dar
Qui: Cor, Col, @SLU, @CCT, @Yal, @Bro
Dar: Bro, Yal, @Col, @Cor, CCT, SLU
RPI: CCT, SLU, @Yal, @Bro, Cor, Col
Pri: Col, Cor, @CCT, @SLU, @Bro, @Yal
Col: @Pri, @Qui, Dar, Har, @Uni, @RPI
Yal: @Har, @Dar, RPI, Uni, Qui, Pri
Bro: @Dar, @Har, Uni, RPI, Pri, Qui
Uni: SLU, CCT, @Bro, @Yal, Col, Cor

TIEBREAKS OWNED:
Har: Qui, Dar, RPI, Pri, Uni
Cor: SLU, Col, Yal, Bro
CCT: Yal, Bro
SLU: Col, Yal, Bro
Qui: RPI, Pri, Uni
Dar: Pri, Uni
RPI: Dar, Uni
Pri: Uni
Col:
Yal: Col
Bro:
Uni:

From this data, with SLU winning the tiebreak over Colgate, they cannot finish in 9th, and are therefore in. Harvard has the tiebreak over Dartmouth, so Dartmouth cannot finish in first. RPI has the tiebreak over Union, so Union cannot finish in 7th, while RPI cannot finish in 12th.
 
Re: Strength of remaining schedule

Re: Strength of remaining schedule

The predictions may need some adjusting due to the weather this weekend. There is a real possibility that we won't play Yale at Bright this year. We rescheduled Brown for the 19th but we have the Beanpot consolation next week, then a road trip to Cornell and Colgate. There isn't any room in the schedule unless they play it after the regular season. That puts Harvard at a disadvantage having to play four Tuesday night games in a row on top of regularly scheduled games. And it bumps into the playoffs because the men close out their season at Bright on the weekend of March 1-2 forcing the women to play in the afternoon. Unless Harvard or Yale need the points for seedings, we should forget about playing that game.
 
Re: Strength of remaining schedule

Re: Strength of remaining schedule

Skate79 said:
The predictions may need some adjusting due to the weather this weekend. There is a real possibility that we won't play Yale at Bright this year. We rescheduled Brown for the 19th but we have the Beanpot consolation next week, then a road trip to Cornell and Colgate. There isn't any room in the schedule unless they play it after the regular season. That puts Harvard at a disadvantage having to play four Tuesday night games in a row on top of regularly scheduled games. And it bumps into the playoffs because the men close out their season at Bright on the weekend of March 1-2 forcing the women to play in the afternoon. Unless Harvard or Yale need the points for seedings, we should forget about playing that game.
Click to expand...

It's very possible that it could determine the regular season championship.
 
Re: Strength of remaining schedule

Re: Strength of remaining schedule

NEMO playing havoc with the ECAC.....Cornell loses to Quinnipiac....Did not see that one coming.
 
Re: Strength of remaining schedule

Re: Strength of remaining schedule

No, I didn't see that coming either. When I was assigning hypothetical odds for second-tier teams against top-tier teams, I decided to treat all second-tier teams alike but had reservations inasmuch as SLU and Dartmouth had played strong against Harvard at least once whilst Quinnipiac hadn't played up to their overall reputation.

Now I see why Q is where it is in the overall standings.
 
Re: ECAC playoff predictions

We'll update this for last night's games. Harvard and Yale did not play last night.

--- Home Lock - 33 () ---
Har 29 - 41 [1-5]
Cor 28 - 38 [1-6]
CCT 28 - 38 [1-6]
SLU 23 - 33 [1-7]
Qui 22 - 32 [1-7]
--- In - 21+ () ---
Dar 19 - 29 [2-10]
RPI 15 - 25 [4-11]
--- Home Eligible - 23 () ---
Col 11 - 21 [6-12]
Pri 10 - 20 [6-12]
Yal 8 - 20 [6-12]
Bro 6 - 16 [7-12]
Uni 3 - 13 [8-12]
--- Out - 11 () ---

REMAINING SCHEDULE:
Har: (Yal-2/10), @Cor, @Col, (Bro-2/19), SLU, CCT
Cor: @Pri, Har, Dar, @RPI, @Uni
CCT: @Uni, Pri, Qui, @Dar, @Har
SLU: @RPI, Qui, Pri, @Har, @Dar
Qui: (Col-2/10), @SLU, @CCT, @Yal, @Bro
Dar: (Yal-2/11), @Col, @Cor, CCT, SLU
RPI: SLU, @Yal, @Bro, Cor, Col
Col: (@Qui-2/10), Dar, Har, @Uni, @RPI
Pri: Cor, @CCT, @SLU, @Bro, @Yal
Yal: (@Har-2/10), (@Dar-2/11), RPI, Uni, Qui, Pri
Bro: Uni, RPI, (@Har-2/19), Pri, Qui
Uni: CCT, @Bro, @Yal, Col, Cor

TIEBREAKS OWNED:
Har: Qui, Dar, RPI, Pri, Uni
Cor: SLU, Col, Yal, Bro
CCT: Yal, Bro, RPI
SLU: Col, Yal, Bro, Uni
Qui: RPI, Pri, Uni
Dar: Pri, Uni, Bro
RPI: Dar, Uni
Col: Pri
Pri: Uni
Yal: Col
Bro:
Uni:

Harvard has the tiebreak over Dartmouth, therefore Dartmouth cannot catch them. Quinnipiac has now clinched a playoff berth.
 
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Re: ECAC playoff predictions

Saturday Update

--- Home Lock - 32 () ---
Cor 30 - 38 [1-5]
CCT 30 - 38 [1-5]
Har 29 - 41 [1-5]
SLU 24 - 32 [1-6]
Qui 22 - 32 [1-7]
--- In - 21+ () ---
Dar 19 - 29 [2-9]
--- Home Eligible - 24 () ---
RPI 16 - 24 [5-11]
Col 11 - 21 [6-12]
Pri 10 - 18 [7-12]
Yal 8 - 20 [6-12]
Bro 6 - 16 [7-12]
Uni 3 - 11 [8-12]
--- Out - 11 () ---

REMAINING SCHEDULE:
Har: (Yal-2/10), @Cor, @Col, (Bro-2/19), SLU, CCT
Cor: Har, Dar, @RPI, @Uni
CCT: Pri, Qui, @Dar, @Har
SLU: Qui, Pri, @Har, @Dar
Qui: (Col-2/10), @SLU, @CCT, @Yal, @Bro
Dar: (Yal-2/11), @Col, @Cor, CCT, SLU
RPI: @Yal, @Bro, Cor, Col
Col: (@Qui-2/10), Dar, Har, @Uni, @RPI
Pri: @CCT, @SLU, @Bro, @Yal
Yal: (@Har-2/10), (@Dar-2/11), RPI, Uni, Qui, Pri
Bro: Uni, RPI, (@Har-2/19), Pri, Qui
Uni: @Bro, @Yal, Col, Cor

TIEBREAKS OWNED:
Har: Qui, Dar, RPI, Pri, Uni
Cor: SLU, Col, Yal, Bro
CCT: Yal, Bro, RPI, Uni
SLU: Col, Yal, Bro, Uni, RPI
Qui: RPI, Pri, Uni
Dar: Pri, Uni, Bro
RPI: Dar, Uni
Col: Pri
Pri: Uni
Yal: Col
Bro:
Uni:

SLU gets the tiebreak over RPI going 1-0-1, meaning RPI can no longer achieve 4th.
 
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Re: ECAC playoff predictions: strength of remaining schedule

Re: ECAC playoff predictions: strength of remaining schedule

harvard vs yale got canceled again, given that harvard has no room in their schedule to play yale due to the beanpot, what happens?
 
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