ECAC playoff predictions

[john0128]

who gets home ice advantage and who will steal the 8th playoff spot?

 

[hab]

Re: ECAC playoff predictions

who gets home ice advantage and who will steal the 8th playoff spot?

Harvard, Clarkson and Cornell will have home ice advantage and I'll go with Quinnipiac for the fourth but it may come down to the remaining game between Quinnipiac and SLU. Dartmouth and RPI should battle for sixth and seventh.

Eighth place is a really tough call. It is Princeton's to win or lose as they have 5 remaining games against the other 3 contenders (Brown, Colgate, and Yale) but I will go with Colgate who have home ice advantage in the remaining match with the Tigers and still have 2 games left against Union (not that those are gimmes by any means).

 

[OnMAA]

Re: ECAC playoff predictions

Harvard, Clarkson and Cornell will have home ice advantage and I'll go with Quinnipiac for the fourth but it may come down to the remaining game between Quinnipiac and SLU. Dartmouth and RPI should battle for sixth and seventh.

Eighth place is a really tough call. It is Princeton's to win or lose as they have 5 remaining games against the other 3 contenders (Brown, Colgate, and Yale) but I will go with Colgate who have home ice advantage in the remaining match with the Tigers and still have 2 games left against Union (not that those are gimmes by any means).

I think SLU will grab that fourth spot, but either way it is most likely a SLU/Quinny match-up for 4 vs 5.

After this weekend, race for the order amongst the top three is wide open. Will all depend on the head to head match-up results.
Harvard visits Cornell
Clarkson visits Harvard

At this point Harvard still has the inside edge with a 2 point lead based on the loss column, but they still have to face SLU as well, so a slightly tougher schedule.

RPI and Darty clearly 6th and 7th, not necessarily in that order.

The last spot is still wide open as well.

Yale and Colgate do have the inside edge, but tiebreakers could get interesting and complicated

Yale still faces Union once and Princeton twice. They are 1 and 1 against both Brown and Colgate
Colgate still faces Union twice and Princeton once. Like Yale they are 1 and 1 against both Brown and Colgate
Brown still faces Union once and Princeton twice. They are 1 and 1 against both Yale and Colgate
Princeton still faces Brown twice, Yale Twice and Colgate. They have a tie against Colgate.

Overall Colgate and Princeton have a slightly easier schedule than Brown and Yale, but at the end it will probably come down how each team fares in their remaining head to head match-ups.

If I were a betting man, would go with Colgate given their recent success against other teams outside of the bottom five.

 

[papulaisle]

ECAC playoff predictions

Dartmouth has seven games remaining- all ECAC. Five are at home. Two may be offered up to the Gods looking the other way...briefly (maybe!)-; take ANY two. Let's say, Crimson (Friday) and Big Red (away). Likely above two and Clarkson will hold their top-three, 'tier'.

D. hard pressed to break into that level at this late date. Nes't-ce pas?

This team defeated New Hamp., tied, B.C. went down only in OT to a desperate hustling Cornell and defeated Northeastern. Are, as so many herein, say, some 'spotty' therefore? Huh. Will the REAL Green stand up (out)?

Come gang, close this thing out in your favor! Decide to! Me thinks they could win all but Friday and one of the away games- far above Cayuga waters, say (as already stated).

Amongst Q., R.P.I. and S.L.U., D. will then...emerge- wrest away slot four. Wahoo! Must come into last two at home...dancing (Clarkson and St Lawrence).

D A N C I N G!!
Tra la, Tra la!

We SURELY CAN dance... We on our toes...We play (our OWN game) and, WE a l w a y s, work, work, work!

We win!

 

[hab]

Re: ECAC playoff predictions

at the end it will probably come down how each team fares in their remaining match-ups.QUOTE]

Really???

 

[OnMAA]

Re: ECAC playoff predictions

at the end it will probably come down how each team fares in their remaining match-ups.

Really???

Yes really, but too quick at the draw...er post button....Meant to say "Head to Head" match-ups , but pretty sure you knew what I meant.

P.S.... Quote error in your post messed up my quoted post of yours. had to edit it to correct. Must be a Hab fan

 

[Skate79]

Re: ECAC playoff predictions

I don't think it will matter who finishes fourth between Quinnipiac and SLU. Both teams are capable of winning on the other team's home sheet. May be a bit tougher to accomplish in Canton, NY but I still think the Bobcats could do it. SLU proved last year that they can win on the road.

Top three look to be locks at this point: Harvard, Cornell and Clarkson. The semis and finals should be awesome if the top four seeds advance.

 

[OnMAA]

Re: ECAC playoff predictions

I don't think it will matter who finishes fourth between Quinnipiac and SLU. Both teams are capable of winning on the other team's home sheet. May be a bit tougher to accomplish in Canton, NY but I still think the Bobcats could do it. SLU proved last year that they can win on the road.

Not surprising you would remember the LSU win(s).
Agree with you that the 4/5 order might not matter. Note that last year Quinnipiac also proved they can win on the road, even in the North Country. They knocked off Clarkson in Potsdam.

 

[Skate79]

Re: ECAC playoff predictions

Not surprising you would remember the LSU win(s).
Agree with you that the 4/5 order might not matter. Note that last year Quinnipiac also proved they can win on the road, even in the North Country. They knocked off Clarkson in Potsdam.

I know. Painful to remember. But I give the Saints credit for winning the tournament. They deserved it.

Thanks for reminding me about the Bobcats. Forgot about that series. Don't think the Lady Knights will let that happen two years in a row!

 

[Trillium]

Re: ECAC playoff predictions

Yale and Colgate do have the inside edge, but tiebreakers could get interesting and complicated

Yale still faces Union once and Princeton twice. They are 1 and 1 against both Brown and Colgate

If I were a betting man, would go with Colgate given their recent success against other teams outside of the bottom five.

Actually, Yale is 2-0 versus Colgate and thus Yale currently owns the 8th place over Colgate despite same number of points currently.

I would actually be very surprised if Colgate gets the last playoff spot, and would give odds that Yale, Princeton, and Brown will ultimately finish ahead of them in points. I suspect part of the reason Colgate has managed to steal points against top teams is simply that better teams took them too lightly. Given the race for the last playoff seed in the upcoming head to heads against those still gunning for a spot, they'll be hard pressed not to get passed.

As you mention, Princeton may have the best shot, which could well depend on how they fare at home vs Yale and Brown this weekend.

 

[LG4]

Actually, Yale is 2-0 versus Colgate and thus Yale currently owns the 8th place over Colgate despite same number of points currently.

I would actually be very surprised if Colgate gets the last playoff spot, and would give odds that Yale, Princeton, and Brown will ultimately finish ahead of them in points. I suspect part of the reason Colgate has managed to steal points against top teams is simply that better teams took them too lightly. Given the race for the last playoff seed in the upcoming head to heads against those still gunning for a spot, they'll be hard pressed not to get passed.

As you mention, Princeton may have the best shot, which could well depend on how they fare at home vs Yale and Brown this weekend.

Actually I don't believe there is such a thing as stealing points, every team going into each game is just as worthy of points as any other. A team may lack bench strength and or talent but to say anyone stole points to me implies one somehow did something crooked. That being said given the standings the last playoff spot is open to any team and probably will come down to the last weekend as always and in the end these teams will lose to harvard or cornell.

 

[OnMAA]

Re: ECAC playoff predictions

Actually, Yale is 2-0 versus Colgate and thus Yale currently owns the 8th place over Colgate despite same number of points currently.

Thanks for that correction. 2nd Brain cramp on the same post.

I still think it is anyone's to win (or lose) amongst the four contenders for that 8th place. All still have it somewhat in their own hands with the exception of Brown who depend on getting more points than Yale against the same competition.

 

[hab]

Re: ECAC playoff predictions

Actually, Yale is 2-0 versus Colgate and thus Yale currently owns the 8th place over Colgate despite same number of points currently.

I would actually be very surprised if Colgate gets the last playoff spot, and would give odds that Yale, Princeton, and Brown will ultimately finish ahead of them in points. I suspect part of the reason Colgate has managed to steal points against top teams is simply that better teams took them too lightly. Given the race for the last playoff seed in the upcoming head to heads against those still gunning for a spot, they'll be hard pressed not to get passed.

As you mention, Princeton may have the best shot, which could well depend on how they fare at home vs Yale and Brown this weekend.

Interesting perspective. I have been assuming that Colgate's losses to Yale were an anomoly and that they will find their way into the playoffs, but maybe I'm giving them too much rope. As always the race for 8 in the ECAC will be worth the price of admission.

 

[Watson Rink]

Re: Strength of remaining schedule

Re: Strength of remaining schedule

Let's assume that Harvard, Clarkson and Cornell are in the top tier of the conference, SLU, Quinnipiac and Dartmouth in the second tier and the other six teams below them. For the sake of simplicity, let's also assume that there won't be any upsets of top-tier teams by second-tier teams, although of course in the real world each of the second-tier teams is capable of doing precisely that.

Under these simplified assumptions, the #1 seed will be very important, inasmuch as the #2 and #3 seeds will play each other as well as the winner playing the #1 seed. The #1 seed will have a much easier schedule towards getting the ECAC championship and the NCAA autobid.

There may or may not be room for three ECAC teams in the NCAAs; the many relevant factors include H's performance in the Beanpot, Cornell's result against 'Hurst, and whether two WHCA teams besides Minnesota differentiate themselves from the fourth WHCA tean and surge up into the top eight. Therefore the team that loses the ECAC #2 v. #3 game may be in deep trouble.

 

[Skate79]

Re: Strength of remaining schedule

Re: Strength of remaining schedule

Let's assume that Harvard, Clarkson and Cornell are in the top tier of the conference, SLU, Quinnipiac and Dartmouth in the second tier and the other six teams below them. For the sake of simplicity, let's also assume that there won't be any upsets of top-tier teams by second-tier teams, although of course in the real world each of the second-tier teams is capable of doing precisely that.

Under these simplified assumptions, the #1 seed will be very important, inasmuch as the #2 and #3 seeds will play each other as well as the winner playing the #1 seed. The #1 seed will have a much easier schedule towards getting the ECAC championship and the NCAA autobid.

There may or may not be room for three ECAC teams in the NCAAs; the many relevant factors include H's performance in the Beanpot, Cornell's result against 'Hurst, and whether two WHCA teams besides Minnesota differentiate themselves from the fourth WHCA tean and surge up into the top eight. Therefore the team that loses the ECAC #2 v. #3 game may be in deep trouble.

I think if Harvard beats either BC or Cornell and finishes first in the regular season, they'll get a bid to the NCAAs unless they get upset in the first round of the ECAC playoffs. For seeds 2 and 3, Cornell has been ranked all season and I expect them to get an invite provided they make it to the semis. Clarkson has wins over Harvard, Cornell, Mercyhurst and North Dakota so it is conceivable they could get a bid especially if they beat Harvard in the tournament. The Pairwise have Harvard, Cornell and Clarkson in the Top Six so I don't see why all three shouldn't make it.

 

[OnMAA]

Re: Strength of remaining schedule

Re: Strength of remaining schedule

I think if Harvard beats either BC or Cornell and finishes first in the regular season, they'll get a bid to the NCAAs unless they get upset in the first round of the ECAC playoffs. For seeds 2 and 3, Cornell has been ranked all season and I expect them to get an invite provided they make it to the semis. Clarkson has wins over Harvard, Cornell, Mercyhurst and North Dakota so it is conceivable they could get a bid especially if they beat Harvard in the tournament. The Pairwise have Harvard, Cornell and Clarkson in the Top Six so I don't see why all three shouldn't make it.

And Cornell just beat MC. More points in the bank for the ECAC teams.

 

[Eeyore]

Re: Strength of remaining schedule

Re: Strength of remaining schedule

And Cornell just beat MC. Another chink in the armor for the ECAC teams.

Other way around. A 'chink in the armor' means a spot where the links of mail are not properly joined, creating a weak spot. A Mercyhurst loss to Cornell creates a chink in MC's armor when it comes to getting an NCAA berth. It improves the chances of ECAC teams.

 

[Watson Rink]

Re: Strength of remaining schedule

Re: Strength of remaining schedule

After looking over at the NCAA Prognostications & Musings thread I was reassured about three ECAC teams making the NCAAs until I reflected that a #7 or #8 seed may result in a suicide mission to Minnesota; therefore the ECAC race has NCAA placement consequences as well as ECAC championship bragging rights, though the two are not necessarily identical.

 

[Watson Rink]

Re: ECAC playoff predictions: strength of remaining schedule

Re: ECAC playoff predictions: strength of remaining schedule

On the simplistic assumptions set forth in my earlier post about the top-three and next-three tiers of the ECAC, Cornell has the easiest remaining schedule: Harvard, Dartnouth and Quinnipiac, whereas Clarkson must play those two teams plus SLU (twice). Harvard is one game ahead in what baseball scribes always refer to as the "all-important loss column," but it must play two top-three teams, Cornell and Clarkson, as well as Dartmouth and SLU. So it looks like a real three-horse race for the #1 seed.

As a first approximation, assume that all top-three games are toss-ups and there will be no upsets at the hands of next-tier teams. Then Cornell and Clarkson would each contemplate losing another point and Harvard two, with Harvard's current two-point cushion making it the favorite for the #1 seed.

Of course, we are not likely to see the H-Co and H-Cl games both resulting in ties (that is almost like the statistical fallacy of saying that the average American citizen is 49% male and 51% female), so as a second approximation let's look at the four permutations of those two games, assuming no ties:

H wins both, is #1 seed
H and Cl are the winners, they go to a tiebreak for the #1 seed with Cl having won the H2H
H and Co are the winners, they go to a tiebreak for the #1 seed with a H2H split (don't know what the result would be)
H loses both, Co and Cl go to a tiebreak for the #1 seed with a H2H split (don't know what the result would be)

Of course, it's possible that one of the two games would end in a tie, which I suspect favors H with its current two-point cushion.

Furthermore, of course, any of the next-tier teams is capable of upsetting any top-tier team, so let's refine our first approximation by ascribing some probability for upsets. Assuming 15%, H would project to lose 2.9 points, Co 1.6 and Cl 2.2; assuming 30%, H would project to lose 3.8 points, Co 1.6 and Cl 3.4, making H a slight favorite in the 15% case and Co a slight favorite in the 30% case.

Trying to look at the permutations of actual results for the 10 remaining games among top-three and next-three teams is too much for me using my primitive methods.

If someone with a grasp of sophisticated statistics could weigh in with some better methodology, that would be terrific!

 

[OnMAA]

Re: ECAC playoff predictions: strength of remaining schedule

Re: ECAC playoff predictions: strength of remaining schedule

On the simplistic assumptions set forth in my earlier post about the top-three and next-three tiers of the ECAC, Cornell has the easiest remaining schedule: Harvard, Dartnouth and Quinnipiac, whereas Clarkson must play those two teams plus SLU (twice). Harvard is one game ahead in what baseball scribes always refer to as the "all-important loss column," but it must play two top-three teams, Cornell and Clarkson, as well as Dartmouth and SLU. So it looks like a real three-horse race for the #1 seed.

As a first approximation, assume that all top-three games are toss-ups and there will be no upsets at the hands of next-tier teams. Then Cornell and Clarkson would each contemplate losing another point and Harvard two, with Harvard's current two-point cushion making it the favorite for the #1 seed.

Of course, we are not likely to see the H-Co and H-Cl games both resulting in ties (that is almost like the statistical fallacy of saying that the average American citizen is 49% male and 51% female), so as a second approximation let's look at the four permutations of those two games, assuming no ties:

H wins both, is #1 seed
H and Cl are the winners, they go to a tiebreak for the #1 seed with Cl having won the H2H
H and Co are the winners, they go to a tiebreak for the #1 seed with a H2H split (don't know what the result would be)
H loses both, Co and Cl go to a tiebreak for the #1 seed with a H2H split (don't know what the result would be)

Of course, it's possible that one of the two games would end in a tie, which I suspect favors H with its current two-point cushion.

Furthermore, of course, any of the next-tier teams is capable of upsetting any top-tier team, so let's refine our first approximation by ascribing some probability for upsets. Assuming 15%, H would project to lose 2.9 points, Co 1.6 and Cl 2.2; assuming 30%, H would project to lose 3.8 points, Co 1.6 and Cl 3.4, making H a slight favorite in the 15% case and Co a slight favorite in the 30% case.

Fantastic unbiased breakdown of the math...Thank You.

Trying to look at the permutations of actual results for the 10 remaining games among top-three and next-three teams is too much for me using my primitive methods.

If someone with a grasp of sophisticated statistics could weigh in with some better methodology, that would be terrific!

Your primitive methods ?. To me it looks like you are some sort of Math Major, Bookie or Betting Junkie !