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ECAC Pick The Standings 2018-2019

Re: ECAC Pick The Standings 2018-2019

Buuuuump. Here are the statistics through four weeks of entries (not including the Random Number and Mr. Last Year; n=32):
Code:
Team       | Mean±SD  | Median(Range) |
---------------------------------------
Cornell    |  1.7±1.1 |   1   ( 1- 6) |
Princeton  |  2.8±1.8 |   2   ( 1- 9) |
Clarkson   |  3.5±1.5 |   4   ( 1- 9) |
Union      |  3.7±1.6 |   4   ( 1- 7) |
Harvard    |  4.9±1.7 |   5   ( 2- 9) |
Yale       |  6.5±1.7 |   6.5 ( 3- 9) |
Quinnipiac |  6.7±1.3 |   7   ( 3- 9) |
Dartmouth  |  7.5±1.6 |   8   ( 3-10) |
Colgate    |  9.0±2.0 |   9   ( 4-12) |
RPI        | 10.2±2.1 |  10   ( 1-12) |
SLU        | 10.6±1.6 |  11   ( 5-12) |
Brown      | 10.9±0.9 |  11   ( 9-12) |

The fan average ranking hasn't changed in a while.
 
Re: ECAC Pick The Standings 2018-2019

TBRW

01. Cornell
02. Union
03. Princeton
04. Clarkson
05. Harvard
06. Quinnipiac
07. Dartmouth
08. Colgate
09. Yale
10. Brown
11. RPI
12. SLU

Kepler

01. Cornell
02. Princeton
03. Union
04. Clarkson
05. Yale
06. Harvard
07. Quinnipiac
08. Dartmouth
09. Colgate
10. Brown
11. RPI
12. SLU
 
Re: ECAC Pick The Standings 2018-2019

Could you add the number of entries to that table? Thank you!

Like from each year? I guess I can do that, but I can only go as far back as I've been participating. I don't think I'll get that edit up today, but soon.
 
Re: ECAC Pick The Standings 2018-2019

1. Union
2. Cornell
3. Princeton
4. Harvard
5. Clarkson
6. Quinnipiac
7. Yale
8. Colgate
9. Dartmouth
10. St. Lawrence
11. RPI
12. Brown
 
Re: ECAC Pick The Standings 2018-2019

OK, time for me to screw this one up royally.

1. Cornell. Same reason as always: They're Cornell.
2. Quinnipiac. Still powerhousing, and I don't see them letting up anytime soon.
3. Harvard. They were respectable without Donato, and they'll continue to be.
4. Princeton. They really haven't lost all that much.
5. #26 Union. Also impressive in the preseason, and didn't lose much, but those above seem to have the edge.
6. CCT. They're still not back.
7. Ylae*. They were 500 last year, and really didn't lose much.
8. Colgate. Sure, they may have lost Point, but he didn't make or break that team, and Donny usually knows how to coach well.
9. Dartmouth. Gaudet always puts together a competitive team, and I don't see much of a difference there.
10. Brown. They are deceptive, but they lost too much to graduation.
11. SLU. They haven't picked up much, and have been spiraling.
12. RPI. I just don't see them pulling it together.
 
Re: ECAC Pick The Standings 2018-2019

Let's call this the last stats update before the first games of the season. Here are the statistics through now (not including the Random Number and Mr. Last Year; n=36):
Code:
Team       | Mean±SD  | Median(Range) |
---------------------------------------
Cornell    |  1.6±1.0 |   1   ( 1- 6) |
Princeton  |  2.8±1.7 |   2.5 ( 1- 9) |
Union      |  3.6±1.6 |   4   ( 1- 7) |
Clarkson   |  3.7±1.5 |   4   ( 1- 9) |
Harvard    |  4.9±1.7 |   5   ( 2- 9) |
Quinnipiac |  6.5±1.4 |   7   ( 2- 9) |
Yale       |  6.6±1.6 |   7   ( 3- 9) |
Dartmouth  |  7.6±1.6 |   8   ( 3-10) |
Colgate    |  8.9±1.9 |   9   ( 4-12) |
RPI        | 10.3±2.0 |  10.5 ( 1-12) |
SLU        | 10.6±1.6 |  11   ( 5-12) |
Brown      | 10.8±0.9 |  11   ( 9-12) |

After complaining about no shifts in the fan average ranking last time, we did finally have a couple of shifts, but they're incredibly close. Also I need to stop making these updates when there are an even number of entrants so I don't have those ugly ".5" in the medians.
 
Re: ECAC Pick The Standings 2018-2019

Let's call this the last stats update before the first games of the season. Here are the statistics through now (not including the Random Number and Mr. Last Year; n=36):
Code:
Team       | Mean±SD  | Median(Range) |
---------------------------------------
Cornell    |  1.6±1.0 |   1   ( 1- 6) |
Princeton  |  2.8±1.7 |   2.5 ( 1- 9) |
Union      |  3.6±1.6 |   4   ( 1- 7) |
Clarkson   |  3.7±1.5 |   4   ( 1- 9) |
Harvard    |  4.9±1.7 |   5   ( 2- 9) |
Quinnipiac |  6.5±1.4 |   7   ( 2- 9) |
Yale       |  6.6±1.6 |   7   ( 3- 9) |
Dartmouth  |  7.6±1.6 |   8   ( 3-10) |
Colgate    |  8.9±1.9 |   9   ( 4-12) |
RPI        | 10.3±2.0 |  10.5 ( 1-12) |
SLU        | 10.6±1.6 |  11   ( 5-12) |
Brown      | 10.8±0.9 |  11   ( 9-12) |

After complaining about no shifts in the fan average ranking last time, we did finally have a couple of shifts, but they're incredibly close. Also I need to stop making these updates when there are an even number of entrants so I don't have those ugly ".5" in the medians.

Or just pick a rounding direction. :p
 
Re: ECAC Pick The Standings 2018-2019

1. Cornell
2. Princeton
3. Union
4. Dartmouth
5. Clarkson
6. Harvard
7. Quinnipiac
8. Yale
9. Colgate
10. Brown
11. St. Lawrence
12. RPI
 
Re: ECAC Pick The Standings 2018-2019

1. Cornell
2. Princeton
3. Union
4. Qu
5. Clarkson
6. Harvard
7. Dartmouth
8. Brown
9. Yale
10. Colgate
11. St. Lawrence
12. RPI
 
Re: ECAC Pick The Standings 2018-2019

1. Union
2. Cornell
3. Princeton
4. Clarkson
5. Harvard
6. Quinnipiac
7. Colgate
8. Dartmouth
9. Yale
10. RPI
11. SLU
12. Brown
 
Re: ECAC Pick The Standings 2018-2019

1. Cornell
2. Princeton
3. Union
4. Harvard
5. Dartmouth
6. Q-Pac
7. Clarkson
8. Colgate
9. Yale
10. SLU
11. RPI
12. Brown
 
Re: ECAC Pick The Standings 2018-2019

1. Cornell
2. Union
3. Princeton
4. Quinnipiac
5. Clarkson
6. Dartmouth
7. Harvard
8. Yale
9. St. Lawrence
10. Brown
11. Colgate
12. RPI
 
Re: ECAC Pick The Standings 2018-2019

1. Cornell
2. Clarkson
3. Princeton
4. Harvard
5. Union
6. Quinnipiac
7. Dartmouth
8. Yale
9. Colgate
10. Brown
11. RPI
12. SLU
 
Re: ECAC Pick The Standings 2018-2019

Did anyone but me expect lugnut to post the contest standings first thing this morning? (Of course the standings could depend upon how he breaks ties.)
 
Re: ECAC Pick The Standings 2018-2019

Late Rankings

Because this wasn't posted until after two games had been played, you're not eligible to win and your entry was not included in The Fan Average, but I will post your score from week to week.<hr>Here are the final statistics for all on-time human entries to the contest (not including the Random Number and Mr. Last Year; n=43):
Code:
Team       | Mean±SD  | Median(Range) |
---------------------------------------
Cornell    |  1.6±1.1 |   1   ( 1- 6) |
Princeton  |  2.7±1.6 |   2   ( 1- 9) |
Union      |  3.6±1.6 |   3   ( 1- 7) |
Clarkson   |  3.8±1.6 |   4   ( 1- 9) |
Harvard    |  5.0±1.6 |   5   ( 2- 9) |
Quinnipiac |  6.4±1.5 |   7   ( 2- 9) |
Yale       |  6.9±1.6 |   7   ( 3- 9) |
Dartmouth  |  7.2±1.7 |   8   ( 3-10) |
Colgate    |  8.8±1.8 |   9   ( 4-12) |
RPI        | 10.6±1.9 |  11   ( 1-12) |
Brown      | 10.7±1.0 |  11   ( 8-12) |
SLU        | 10.7±1.4 |  11   ( 5-12) |

The highest consensus around any team was Brown, though Cornell received the most votes for a single position (28 votes, 1st). As always, RPI has the highest standard deviation, though if we ignore my annual delusion, Colgate would have the title. Yale has the fewest votes for its modal position (10 votes, 8th).

As with last year, no team was picked for every position, and no position had every team chosen at least once.

The Coaches and the Fan Average were in very tight agreement, with only SLU-Brown and Yale-Quinnipiac swapped. Of actual posters to the board, drshoen, Kepler, and TovarishchLisa were the closest to the average. Also I didn't notice until just now but sgt12 and TBRW made identical entries. At the other end, the Random Number was unsurprisingly the furthest away from the average. ColSkate65 holds that honor for USCHO posters.

Graphs:
<img src="https://i.imgur.com/HWPo7os.png" height="450"></img>

(left: Mean ± SD, right: heat map of votes)
<hr>
The season started and I AM VINDICATED! Okay, we're only four games in and there is still about 97% of the league schedule left to play, but based on all the evidence, RPI is going to go 22-0 in-conference and I'm the smartest. At the other end of the table is Mike Hutter, but again, a lot of hockey left to play. Here are your first real standings:
Code:
Rk Post#         Contestant  Raw
 1    44           lugnut92  262
 2    35         Go Puckman  288
 3    17            kdiff77  294
 4     2  The Random Number  296
 5    36  iowabasedtraveler  324
      42  Bronco Hockey Fan  324
 7    77                ***  328
 8    20               Turk  330
 9    19         Ralph Baer  332
      54            capswon  332
11     3               vicb  334
12    39       techtodenver  336
      41    TheValleyRaider  336
14    74          red133883  340
15    29           TchrBill  350
16     6         ColSkate65  354
17     2          The Media  358
18    34         fishcore12  362
19     2        The Coaches  364
20    25         GoldenBear  366
21    26             Replay  374
      40   TalonsUpPuckDown  374
      76      goldenbriggsy  374
24    62             Kepler  376
      79    The Fan Average  376
26    22           Saints#1  378
      28            drshoen  378
28    53             cudmud  380
29    15          GreenBear  382
30    66         FlagDUDE08  386
31    58            Rjm7272  388
32    69          BIG Green  390
33    73           sshablak  392
34    75         slumulva88  394
35     2      Mr. Last Year  396
      50 still an empty net  396
37    72           Dutchman  398
38    43     TovarishchLisa  404
39    49            Rolevio  406
      71   hockeyplayer1015  406
41    65            Rainman  410
42    60            jstadts  412
43    37              sgt12  414
      59            bothman  414
      62               TBRW  414
46     7      ecachawkeyfan  416
47    70        Mike Hutter  424

Because half the league hasn't played an ECAC contest yet, I had to invent a bunch of tiebreakers. First was ECAC games played, then overall win percentage and overall games played, and finally shot differential (because both non-RPI-Union-ECAC games were decided by one goal). None of this will matter in five months, but here we are for now.
 
Last edited:
Because this wasn't posted until after two games had been played, you're not eligible to win and your entry was not included in The Fan Average, but I will post your score from week to week.<hr>Here are the final statistics for all on-time human entries to the contest (not including the Random Number and Mr. Last Year; n=43):
Code:
I deleted mine.
 
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