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ECAC Pick The Standings 2018-2019

Re: ECAC Pick The Standings 2018-2019

Not a lot of changes this week, but my dream of the Random Number winning is probably dead. Too bad.

Code: 
Rk Post#         Contestant
 1    66         FlagDUDE08  116 
 2    29           TchrBill  126 
 3    26             Replay  134 
 4    36  iowabasedtraveler  136 
 5    76      goldenbriggsy  140 
 6    25         GoldenBear  144 
 7    49            Rolevio  146 
 8    39       techtodenver  148 
 9    62             Kepler  158 
10    42  Bronco Hockey Fan  162 
      70        Mike Hutter  162 
      71   hockeyplayer1015  162 
13    20               Turk  164 
14    78    The Fan Average  166 
15     2      Mr. Last Year  168 
      28            drshoen  168 
      43     TovarishchLisa  168 
      53             cudmud  168 
19    41    TheValleyRaider  170 
      50 still an empty net  170 
      75         slumulva88  170 
22     3               vicb  172 
      40   TalonsUpPuckDown  172 
24    19         Ralph Baer  176 
      34         fishcore12  176 
      37              sgt12  176 
      62               TBRW  176 
28     2          The Media  178 
      54            capswon  178 
30     2        The Coaches  180 
31    22           Saints#1  190 
32    60            jstadts  192 
33    69          BIG Green  194 
34    35         Go Puckman  198 
35    65            Rainman  200 
36     7      ecachawkeyfan  202 
37    15          GreenBear  206 
38    59            bothman  212 
39    72           Dutchman  214 
40     2  The Random Number  216 
       6         ColSkate65  216 
42    73           sshablak  220 
43    44           lugnut92  226 
44    58            Rjm7272  228 
45    17            kdiff77  252 
46    74          red133883  258 
 *     *                  *  182
 
Re: ECAC Pick The Standings 2018-2019

As we enter the final weekend, FlagDUDE08 has a decent sized lead, but there's a lot of movement still possible that could mix everything up. Let's see what happens!

Code: 
Rk Post#         Contestant  Raw
 1    66         FlagDUDE08   92
 2    76      goldenbriggsy  120
 3    29           TchrBill  126
 4    26             Replay  128
 5    49            Rolevio  130
 6    25         GoldenBear  134
      53             cudmud  134
 8     2      Mr. Last Year  142
      36  iowabasedtraveler  142
10    20               Turk  144
11    50 still an empty net  146
      70        Mike Hutter  146
13    71   hockeyplayer1015  148
14    39       techtodenver  150
15    37              sgt12  154
      62               TBRW  154
17    42  Bronco Hockey Fan  156
      78    The Fan Average  156
19    43     TovarishchLisa  158
      62             Kepler  158
21    28            drshoen  162
      40   TalonsUpPuckDown  162
23    19         Ralph Baer  164
      34         fishcore12  164
      75         slumulva88  164
26     2          The Media  168
27     2  The Random Number  172
28     2        The Coaches  174
      22           Saints#1  174
30    41    TheValleyRaider  176
31     7      ecachawkeyfan  178
32    69          BIG Green  180
33     3               vicb  182
      65            Rainman  182
35    59            bothman  184
      60            jstadts  184
37    54            capswon  186
38     6         ColSkate65  192
      15          GreenBear  192
      72           Dutchman  192
41    73           sshablak  194
42    35         Go Puckman  222
43    58            Rjm7272  228
44    17            kdiff77  232
45    44           lugnut92  238
46    74          red133883  242
 *     *                  *  176
 
Re: ECAC Pick The Standings 2018-2019

It's a worst-to-first story as FlagDUDE08 wins this year's ECAC Pick The Standings contest just a season after taking last place (among real people)! His score places him 7th of 17 among the pantheon of our previous winners. He somehow didn't get any teams exactly correct, but he did get 5 teams with one position (and 9 teams within two) of the real standings. His worst miss was Princeton in 4th place (remember this for later).

As a whole, we did much better than last year, with 7 participants posting scores under 100 (up from one), the Fan Average improving by 58 points, and only one poster (me!) posting a score of 200 or worse (down from 16 last season). Last year's winner, goldenbriggsy, basically matched their performance from last year and took second place. Last year's overall loser "chose not to participate" but as I mentioned above, the worst real poster from last year did well for himself this time around.

The non-poster picks did decently, as Mr. Last Year, the Media, and the Coaches all placed right in the middle of the standings. The Random Number was toward the bottom of the table, but did beat three posters and had one of its better performances of the last few seasons.

I take last place, but I'll take consolation in the fact that I had the best ever last overall score, edging out Papa Smurf's 2005-06 season picks. Imagine if I wasn't a reckless homer about RPI!

The long-distance travel pair had by far the biggest affect on our selections, as they combined to cost us an average of 73 points as we all overestimated Princeton and underestimated Quinnipiac. Conversely, we all did a good job of placing Clarkson, Cornell, Harvard, RPI, SLU, and Yale, which cost us fewer than four points each and were nailed by at least six of us. Looking more closely, SLU was picked in the correct position by 12 of us (over 25%), and Cornell lost us just 1.2 points as only two of us (including the RNG and Mr. Last Year) missed them by more than one spot.

Thanks to everyone on their participation in this year's contest!

Summary Graphs:
<img src="https://i.imgur.com/fSaFPYw.png" height="450"></img>

(left: Violin plot of scores, right: Heat map of our deviations from reality)<hr>

Final standings:
Code: 
Rk Post#         Contestant  Raw
 1    66         FlagDUDE08   68
 2    76      goldenbriggsy   80
 3    49            Rolevio   90
 4    20               Turk   92
 5    42  Bronco Hockey Fan   96
 6    70        Mike Hutter   98
      71   hockeyplayer1015   98
 8    36  iowabasedtraveler  102
 9    25         GoldenBear  104
      75         slumulva88  104
11    37              sgt12  110
      62               TBRW  110
13    29           TchrBill  112
      39       techtodenver  112
15    26             Replay  114
      28            drshoen  114
      78    The Fan Average  114
18    40   TalonsUpPuckDown  116
19     2      Mr. Last Year  118
20    43     TovarishchLisa  120
21     2          The Media  122
      19         Ralph Baer  122
      53             cudmud  122
      62             Kepler  122
      69          BIG Green  122
26    15          GreenBear  130
      34         fishcore12  130
      41    TheValleyRaider  130
29     2        The Coaches  132
      50 still an empty net  132
31     7      ecachawkeyfan  136
32     3               vicb  138
      22           Saints#1  138
      60            jstadts  138
35    54            capswon  140
      73           sshablak  140
37    65            Rainman  142
38    72           Dutchman  144
39     6         ColSkate65  150
40    59            bothman  154
41    35         Go Puckman  162
42    74          red133883  176
43     2  The Random Number  178
44    17            kdiff77  182
45    58            Rjm7272  194
46    44           lugnut92  224
 *     *                  *  114
 
Re: ECAC Pick The Standings 2018-2019

Thanks, lugnut, for running the contest this year. Always fun, even if I do poorly every season....:-(
 
Re: ECAC Pick The Standings 2018-2019

Another summary graph, this time comparing the score distributions over the last 10 years. Hope you all like violin plots.

<img src="https://i.imgur.com/SA4vCUQ.png" height="600"></img>

This year was arguably one of our best ever, though looking back at previous years with over 100 entries just kind of make me sad. Also, the standings were apparently super predictable in 15-16. I had forgotten.
 
Re: ECAC Pick The Standings 2018-2019

I believe this was my historical best performance.

Thanks for running it! May the predictions be in your favor next year folks.
 
Re: ECAC Pick The Standings 2018-2019

lugnut92 said:
It's a worst-to-first story as FlagDUDE08 wins this year's ECAC Pick The Standings contest just a season after taking last place (among real people)! His score places him 7th of 17 among the pantheon of our previous winners. He somehow didn't get any teams exactly correct, but he did get 5 teams with one position (and 9 teams within two) of the real standings. His worst miss was Princeton in 4th place (remember this for later).

As a whole, we did much better than last year, with 7 participants posting scores under 100 (up from one), the Fan Average improving by 58 points, and only one poster (me!) posting a score of 200 or worse (down from 16 last season). Last year's winner, goldenbriggsy, basically matched their performance from last year and took second place. Last year's overall loser "chose not to participate" but as I mentioned above, the worst real poster from last year did well for himself this time around.

The non-poster picks did decently, as Mr. Last Year, the Media, and the Coaches all placed right in the middle of the standings. The Random Number was toward the bottom of the table, but did beat three posters and had one of its better performances of the last few seasons.

I take last place, but I'll take consolation in the fact that I had the best ever last overall score, edging out Papa Smurf's 2005-06 season picks. Imagine if I wasn't a reckless homer about RPI!

The long-distance travel pair had by far the biggest affect on our selections, as they combined to cost us an average of 73 points as we all overestimated Princeton and underestimated Quinnipiac. Conversely, we all did a good job of placing Clarkson, Cornell, Harvard, RPI, SLU, and Yale, which cost us fewer than four points each and were nailed by at least six of us. Looking more closely, SLU was picked in the correct position by 12 of us (over 25%), and Cornell lost us just 1.2 points as only two of us (including the RNG and Mr. Last Year) missed them by more than one spot.

Thanks to everyone on their participation in this year's contest!

Summary Graphs:
<img src="https://i.imgur.com/fSaFPYw.png" height="450"></img>

(left: Violin plot of scores, right: Heat map of our deviations from reality)<hr>

Final standings:
Code: 
Rk Post#         Contestant  Raw
 1    66         FlagDUDE08   68
 2    76      goldenbriggsy   80
 3    49            Rolevio   90
 4    20               Turk   92
 5    42  Bronco Hockey Fan   96
 6    70        Mike Hutter   98
      71   hockeyplayer1015   98
 8    36  iowabasedtraveler  102
 9    25         GoldenBear  104
      75         slumulva88  104
11    37              sgt12  110
      62               TBRW  110
13    29           TchrBill  112
      39       techtodenver  112
15    26             Replay  114
      28            drshoen  114
      78    The Fan Average  114
18    40   TalonsUpPuckDown  116
19     2      Mr. Last Year  118
20    43     TovarishchLisa  120
21     2          The Media  122
      19         Ralph Baer  122
      53             cudmud  122
      62             Kepler  122
      69          BIG Green  122
26    15          GreenBear  130
      34         fishcore12  130
      41    TheValleyRaider  130
29     2        The Coaches  132
      50 still an empty net  132
31     7      ecachawkeyfan  136
32     3               vicb  138
      22           Saints#1  138
      60            jstadts  138
35    54            capswon  140
      73           sshablak  140
37    65            Rainman  142
38    72           Dutchman  144
39     6         ColSkate65  150
40    59            bothman  154
41    35         Go Puckman  162
42    74          red133883  176
43     2  The Random Number  178
44    17            kdiff77  182
45    58            Rjm7272  194
46    44           lugnut92  224
 *     *                  *  114
Click to expand...

Two BG shout outs to Lug for constructing this whole fun contest, putting in the time and effort and Flag for bringing home the hardware! As for me, I picked BG to finish 4th, off by one and now off to the playoffs!
 
Re: ECAC Pick The Standings 2018-2019

Thanks for keeping the contest alive and well. Look forward to playing again next year.
 
Re: ECAC Pick The Standings 2018-2019

It is great to see this competition still going!

It is not great to see my only claim to participation is one of the biggest losers.:cool:
 
Re: ECAC Pick The Standings 2018-2019

Earl_Leatherland said:
It is great to see this competition still going!

It is not great to see my only claim to participation is one of the biggest losers.:cool:
Click to expand...

Good grief, one of my alter egos has returned or someone stole his password. I see that I am still mentioned in your sig. :rolleyes:

When was the last time that you were either here or the Clarkson board?
 
Re: ECAC Pick The Standings 2018-2019

Ralph Baer said:
Good grief, one of my alter egos has returned or someone stole his password. I see that I am still mentioned in your sig. :rolleyes:

When was the last time that you were either here or the Clarkson board?
Click to expand...

I have not posted for a number of years, but am on USCHO constantly throughout the year.

I have been doing the instant replay review for Niagara University for the past 10 years, so keeping up with other goings on via USCHO is incredibly useful.
 
Last edited:
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