ECAC Pick the Standings 2017-18

DrDemento · Oct 27, 2017

Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2017-18

Just got back in time!!!! Will have to put both my picks and Jenny's together on this one post as she cannot seem to remember her login information password and is too pressed for time so here goes.

Me

1. Harvard
2. Quinnipiac
3. Cornell
4. Yale
5. RPI
6. Union
7. Clarkson
8. SLU
9. Princeton
10. Dartmouth
11. Colgate
12. Brown

Jenny

1. Harvard
2. Quinnipiac
3. Cornell
4. Union
5. RPI
6. Clarkson
7.Yale
8. Princeton
9. Dartmouth
10.Colgate
11. St. Lawrence
12. Brown

jmhusker · Oct 27, 2017

Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2017-18

1. Harvard
2. Clarkson
3. Quinnipiac
4. RPI
5. Union
6. Cornell
7. Yale
8. Dartmouth
9. St. Lawrence
10. Princeton
11. Colgate
12. Brown

lugnut92 · Oct 29, 2017

Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2017-18

Here are the final statistics for all human entries (not including the Random Number, Mr. Last Year, and the Fan Average; n=46):

Code:

Team       |  Mean±SD   | Median(Range) |
-----------------------------------------
Harvard    |  1.59±1.44 |   1   ( 1-10) |
Quinnipiac |  2.59±1.24 |   2   ( 1- 6) |
Clarkson   |  3.80±2.07 |   3   ( 1-12) |
Cornell    |  3.83±1.27 |   4   ( 2- 7) |
Princeton  |  5.91±1.98 |   5   ( 1-12) |
Yale       |  6.57±1.63 |   7   ( 3-11) |
Union      |  6.98±2.01 |   7   ( 3-12) |
RPI        |  8.13±2.86 |   9   ( 1-12) |
SLU        |  8.30±2.40 |   9   ( 1-12) |
Dartmouth  |  9.48±1.95 |  10   ( 2-12) |
Colgate    |  9.89±1.87 |  10   ( 3-12) |
Brown      | 10.98±1.33 |  11.5 ( 7-12) |

The most consensus around any given team was Quinnipiac, though Harvard received more votes for a single position (1st, 31) than any other team. RPI had the least consensus, evidenced with a very wide distribution and the fewest votes for its mode (10th, 8) of any team. As the saying goes, never bet for or against RPI!

No team was picked to finish in every position, and no position had every team picked at least once.

hockeyplayer1015's entry most closely matches the fan average (only flipping the positions of Harvard and Quinnipiac), while the RPI Standings Board is the most different (ColSkate65 and Rjm7272 hold that crown for those who actually post on the board). As I mentioned in a previous post, LTsatch and The Coaches made identical entries.

Visualizations
<img src="https://i.imgur.com/bBbgBll.png" height="350"></img><img src="https://i.imgur.com/VpOVxeu.png" height="350"></img>

Data on the first graph represent the mean ± SD ranking of all human entries. The second shows the frequency with which each team was predicted for each position.

ColSkate65 · Oct 29, 2017

Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2017-18

lugnut, TMI, you are way over my head. i was an English major, not a math major

lugnut92 · Oct 29, 2017

Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2017-18

Well we're five games in, and we have to fake a whole hell of a lot of tiebreakers to make a set of standings that even remotely makes sense, but that's what happens when half of the league has no games played and 2 more split their home and home (with even goal differential). sshablak has the early lead, and (I think I'll be saying this an awful lot) RPI Standings Board is bringing up the rear. So here are your basically meaningless initial standings:

Code:

Rk Post#           Contestant        ρ
 1    48             sshablak   0.5734
 2    23          Mike Hutter   0.5385
 3    60             TchrBill   0.5315
 4     3        Mr. Last Year   0.4895
      46        goldenbriggsy   0.4895
 6    16                BigAl   0.4825
 7     3            The Media   0.4615
       2                 TBRW   0.4615
      18              bothman   0.4615
10    40             Dutchman   0.4545
11    33              Rainman   0.4196
12    53                johnk   0.3986
13    30      Section5forLife   0.3846
      52              kdiff77   0.3846
15    32               cudmud   0.3776
      59      TheValleyRaider   0.3776
17     3          The Coaches   0.3636
       5               Kepler   0.3636
      22         techtodenver   0.3636
      41              LTsatch   0.3636
      54            BIG Green   0.3636
      61              JennyRN   0.3636
23     9          IsThereADog   0.3601
24    17        ecachawkeyfan   0.3566
      63        TheFanAverage   0.3566
26    20            Muskieman   0.3497
      42           FireKnight   0.3497
      56     hockeyplayer1015   0.3497
29    61            DrDemento   0.3427
30    47           GoldenBear   0.3357
31    21           alslammerz   0.3252
32    28                 UFan   0.3077
33    10           slumulva88   0.3007
34    44           QUAlum2004   0.2867
35    34             Saints#1   0.2727
      57                 1988   0.2727
37    49           ColSkate65   0.2587
38     8                miker   0.2308
39    14           Go Puckman   0.2098
40    31                 Turk   0.1818
      39              drshoen   0.1818
42    62             jmhusker   0.1469
43    58            red133883   0.1399
44    11             lugnut92   0.0909
45    26           FlagDUDE08   0.0699
      50              Rjm7272   0.0699
47    15           Ralph Baer  -0.0140
48     3    The Random Number  -0.5315
49    25    RPIStandingsBoard  -0.7413

Okay, so I mentioned arbitrary tiebreakers, and here they are. If we extend past those tiebreakers provided by the ECAC, I'll basically try and apply the same thought process to teams' overall records. So right now, I'm just comparing win percentages and games played. That doesn't even fly for Brown and Yale, so I ranked them by shot differential. None of this matters, no one is going to care what tiebreakers I used 127 games from now.

Fun fact: Any time the scores here are negative, it means the prediction would be more accurate if it were reversed. So the RPI Standings Board would be #1 if it were literally backwards. But again, none of this matters, we're five games in.

Finally, I want to ask if people prefer the

Code:

 tags I use for the formatted table or if they like the old [pre] tags better? [code] is smaller and more compact, but you end up having to scroll to the bottom. Does anyone care?

Ralph Baer · Oct 30, 2017

Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2017-18

I am the only actual entrant who is currently negative.

DrDemento · Oct 30, 2017

Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2017-18

Ralph Baer said:
I am the only actual entrant who is currently negative.

But you keep a positive outlook!!

DrDemento · Oct 30, 2017

Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2017-18

Whatever Lug is doing, and I have no understanding of the math involved, it must be correct since Jenny is, as usual, about 10-20 slots above me.

lugnut92 · Oct 30, 2017

Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2017-18

DrDemento said:
Whatever Lug is doing, and I have no understanding of the math involved, it must be correct since Jenny is, as usual, about 10-20 slots above me.

It's actually pretty simple. The rankings this year will be identical to if I listed the scores the old way, but just scaled slightly differently. If you were to divide the old scores by 286 (i.e., multiply by 6/(n(n[SUP]2[/SUP]-1)) ) and subtract the result from 1, you get the new scores. It's all just a way to limit the scores to a much smaller range.

Ralph Baer · Oct 30, 2017

Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2017-18

lugnut92 said:
It's actually pretty simple. The rankings this year will be identical to if I listed the scores the old way, but just scaled slightly differently. If you were to divide the old scores by 236 (i.e., multiply by 6/(n(n[SUP]2[/SUP]-1)) ) and subtract the result from 1, you get the new scores. It's all just a way to limit the scores to a much smaller range.

Is there something wrong with the formula, or am I confused? I think you said that three of the entrants aren't counted. I.e., n = 46. That doesn't give 1/236, but rather 1/16215.

lugnut92 · Oct 30, 2017

Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2017-18

Ralph Baer said:
Is there something wrong with the formula, or am I confused? I think you said that three of the entrants aren't counted. I.e., n = 46. That doesn't give 1/236, but rather 1/16215.

Oh sorry, the n is the number of ranks being compared (i.e., 12). I suppose reusing variables isn't very good practice.

Also, it should be 286, not 236. That was a mistake on my part.

Kepler · Nov 1, 2017

Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2017-18

lugnut92 said:
Oh sorry, the n is the number of ranks being compared (i.e., 12). I suppose reusing variables isn't very good practice.

Also, it should be 286, not 236. That was a mistake on my part.

Thank you again for doing this; it's great!

Kepler · Nov 1, 2017

Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2017-18

lugnut92 said:

Finally, I want to ask if people prefer the

Code:

 tags I use for the formatted table or if they like the old [pre] tags better? [code] is smaller and more compact, but you end up having to scroll to the bottom. Does anyone care?[/QUOTE]

I like the code tags better than the pre tags, personally.

I use them myself and wish there was a way of overwriting the title (code or pre) with custom text (e.g., a caption).  Is there a way to do that?

lugnut92 · Nov 1, 2017

Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2017-18

Kepler said:
I like the code tags better than the pre tags, personally.

I use them myself and wish there was a way of overwriting the title (code or pre) with custom text (e.g., a caption). Is there a way to do that?

I don't think so. I've always wanted to do it.

Code:

Nope

<code="neither does this">
Nope
</code>

vicb · Nov 5, 2017

Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2017-18

Thanks for taking over the contest this year. I just did not have the time or energy to do this again (it is tough getting old). Good luck to all the prognosticators and may the luckiest one win

.

lugnut92 · Nov 5, 2017

Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2017-18

Well, no one is doing particularly well after 17 games. It doesn't help that Quinnipiac is in last and Dartmouth is sitting in the top 4, but I imagine those small errors will be rectified soon enough. Anyway, goldenbriggsy has jumped up a few spots to take over the top spot, while the RPI Standings Board has a pretty tight grip on the bottom spot already (FlagDUDE08 holds that honor for real posters).

Here are your new standings:

Code:

Rk Post#           Contestant        ρ
 1    46        goldenbriggsy   0.4615
 2    48             sshablak   0.3497
 3    20            Muskieman   0.3287
 4    21           alslammerz   0.3182
 5    54            BIG Green   0.2937
 6     3        Mr. Last Year   0.2657
 7    60             TchrBill   0.2238
 8    16                BigAl   0.2168
 9    58            red133883   0.2098
      62             jmhusker   0.2098
11    30      Section5forLife   0.1608
      33              Rainman   0.1608
13    17        ecachawkeyfan   0.1469
14    15           Ralph Baer   0.1329
15    18              bothman   0.1259
      56     hockeyplayer1015   0.1259
17     2                 TBRW   0.1189
      49           ColSkate65   0.1189
19    61              JennyRN   0.0839
20    22         techtodenver   0.0699
21     3          The Coaches   0.0629
       8                miker   0.0629
      23          Mike Hutter   0.0629
      41              LTsatch   0.0629
      42           FireKnight   0.0629
26     5               Kepler   0.0559
      63        TheFanAverage   0.0559
28     3            The Media   0.0420
29    14           Go Puckman   0.0350
30    47           GoldenBear   0.0210
31    53                johnk   0.0140
32     9          IsThereADog   0.0035
33    28                 UFan  -0.0210
34    44           QUAlum2004  -0.0280
35    10           slumulva88  -0.0350
36    31                 Turk  -0.0490
      34             Saints#1  -0.0490
38    57                 1988  -0.0629
39    40             Dutchman  -0.0699
      61            DrDemento  -0.0699
41    59      TheValleyRaider  -0.0769
42    52              kdiff77  -0.0839
43    39              drshoen  -0.1049
44    50              Rjm7272  -0.1399
45    32               cudmud  -0.2028
46    11             lugnut92  -0.2238
47    26           FlagDUDE08  -0.4056
48     3    The Random Number  -0.4196
49    25    RPIStandingsBoard  -0.6643

Pretty much every current tie in the ECAC table was broken by games played, with only one tie falling to H2H points.

FlagDUDE08 · Nov 5, 2017

Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2017-18

For at least the purposes of first and last place, do we know what the classic-style scores are so we can keep tabs on how we're doing when compared to last year?

lugnut92 · Nov 5, 2017

Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2017-18

FlagDUDE08 said:
For at least the purposes of first and last place, do we know what the classic-style scores are so we can keep tabs on how we're doing when compared to last year?

I'll start reporting it as "Raw".

Code:

Rk Post#           Contestant  Raw        ρ
 1    46        goldenbriggsy  154   0.4615
 2    48             sshablak  186   0.3497
 3    20            Muskieman  192   0.3287
 4    21           alslammerz  195   0.3182
 5    54            BIG Green  202   0.2937
 6     3        Mr. Last Year  210   0.2657
 7    60             TchrBill  222   0.2238
 8    16                BigAl  224   0.2168
 9    58            red133883  226   0.2098
10    62             jmhusker  226   0.2098
11    30      Section5forLife  240   0.1608
      33              Rainman  240   0.1608
13    17        ecachawkeyfan  244   0.1469
14    15           Ralph Baer  248   0.1329
15    18              bothman  250   0.1259
      56     hockeyplayer1015  250   0.1259
17     2                 TBRW  252   0.1189
      49           ColSkate65  252   0.1189
19    61              JennyRN  262   0.0839
20    22         techtodenver  266   0.0699
21     3          The Coaches  268   0.0629
       8                miker  268   0.0629
      23          Mike Hutter  268   0.0629
      41              LTsatch  268   0.0629
      42           FireKnight  268   0.0629
26     5               Kepler  270   0.0559
      63        TheFanAverage  270   0.0559
28     3            The Media  274   0.0420
29    14           Go Puckman  276   0.0350
30    47           GoldenBear  280   0.0210
31    53                johnk  282   0.0140
32     9          IsThereADog  285   0.0035
33    28                 UFan  292  -0.0210
34    44           QUAlum2004  294  -0.0280
35    10           slumulva88  296  -0.0350
36    31                 Turk  300  -0.0490
      34             Saints#1  300  -0.0490
38    57                 1988  304  -0.0629
39    40             Dutchman  306  -0.0699
      61            DrDemento  306  -0.0699
41    59      TheValleyRaider  308  -0.0769
42    52              kdiff77  310  -0.0839
43    39              drshoen  316  -0.1049
44    50              Rjm7272  326  -0.1399
45    32               cudmud  344  -0.2028
46    11             lugnut92  350  -0.2238
47    26           FlagDUDE08  402  -0.4056
48     3    The Random Number  406  -0.4196
49    25    RPIStandingsBoard  476  -0.6643

If the season ended today, these would be the worst winning and losing scores of all time.

FlagDUDE08 · Nov 5, 2017

Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2017-18

lugnut92 said:
I'll start reporting it as "Raw".

If the season ended today, these would be the worst winning and losing scores of all time.

I'm almost sorry I asked.

lugnut92 · Nov 12, 2017

Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2017-18

Not much changing right now in the standings. goldenbriggsy maintains his hold on first overall, improving slightly over his position last week. Behind him, alslammerz leapfrogged sshablak to take second. Elsewhere in the standings, slumulva88 has a score of exactly 0, meaning that their prediction has exactly no correlation with the real standings. Down at the bottom, RPIStandingsBoard is really bad and FlagDUDE08 is too.

Here are your new standings:

Code:

Rk Post#         Contestant  Raw        ρ
 1    46      goldenbriggsy  146   0.4895
 2    21         alslammerz  167   0.4161
 3    48           sshablak  186   0.3497
 4    20          Muskieman  194   0.3217
 5     3      Mr. Last Year  210   0.2657
 6    49         ColSkate65  216   0.2448
 7    60           TchrBill  218   0.2378
 8     2               TBRW  220   0.2308
      54          BIG Green  220   0.2308
10    33            Rainman  226   0.2098
11     5             Kepler  232   0.1888
12    16              BigAl  234   0.1818
      58          red133883  234   0.1818
14    22       techtodenver  236   0.1748
      30    Section5forLife  236   0.1748
      61            JennyRN  236   0.1748
17    56   hockeyplayer1015  242   0.1538
      62           jmhusker  242   0.1538
19    18            bothman  244   0.1469
20     8              miker  248   0.1329
      17      ecachawkeyfan  248   0.1329
22    15         Ralph Baer  250   0.1259
23    47         GoldenBear  256   0.1049
      53              johnk  256   0.1049
25    28               UFan  258   0.0979
26    63      TheFanAverage  262   0.0839
27     3        The Coaches  264   0.0769
      41            LTsatch  264   0.0769
29    42         FireKnight  266   0.0699
30    23        Mike Hutter  268   0.0629
31     3          The Media  274   0.0420
      14         Go Puckman  274   0.0420
      40           Dutchman  274   0.0420
34    31               Turk  280   0.0210
35    61          DrDemento  284   0.0070
36    10         slumulva88  286   0.0000
37    34           Saints#1  290  -0.0140
      52            kdiff77  290  -0.0140
39    44         QUAlum2004  292  -0.0210
       9        IsThereADog  293  -0.0245
41    57               1988  296  -0.0350
42    32             cudmud  300  -0.0490
43    11           lugnut92  306  -0.0699
44    59    TheValleyRaider  308  -0.0769
45    39            drshoen  320  -0.1189
46    50            Rjm7272  342  -0.1958
47     3  The Random Number  358  -0.2517
48    26         FlagDUDE08  388  -0.3566
49    25  RPIStandingsBoard  464  -0.6224

ECAC Pick the Standings 2017-18

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