Timothy A
Let's go RED!
Re: Dramatic Changes To *This Season's* NCAA Selection Criteria?
There is zero chance of that happening, don't worry about it.
There is zero chance of that happening, don't worry about it.
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Dramatic Changes To *This Season's* NCAA Selection Criteria?
- Thread starter TonyTheTiger20
- Start date
Timothy A
Let's go RED!
TonyTheTiger20
#SOAR
Re: Dramatic Changes To *This Season's* NCAA Selection Criteria?
I've been modifying the Tournament Predictor that I introduced last year to include conference quarterfinal games -- can someone confirm for me that I have this right:
WHEA: 8 team tourney, best of 3 quarterfinals, semifinals reseed
WCHA: 8 team tourney, best of 3 quarterfinals, semifinals reseed
ECAC: 8 team tourney, best of 3 quarterfinals, semifinals reseed
CHA 6 team tourney, top 2 with byes, best of 3 quarterfinals, semifinals reseed
I've been modifying the Tournament Predictor that I introduced last year to include conference quarterfinal games -- can someone confirm for me that I have this right:
WHEA: 8 team tourney, best of 3 quarterfinals, semifinals reseed
WCHA: 8 team tourney, best of 3 quarterfinals, semifinals reseed
ECAC: 8 team tourney, best of 3 quarterfinals, semifinals reseed
CHA 6 team tourney, top 2 with byes, best of 3 quarterfinals, semifinals reseed
ARM
Fan of chipmunk-like mascots.
TonyTheTiger20
#SOAR
TonyTheTiger20
#SOAR
Re: Dramatic Changes To *This Season's* NCAA Selection Criteria?
So I have this year's Tournament Predictor ready to go once the regular season wraps up, and in playing around with some results I found an interesting possibility.
It looks like if Minnesota loses 3 times (i.e., loses all three games to Wisconsin, or loses two to Wisconsin and loses before they see Wisconsin again), and Clarkson wins out, there is a better than 50/50 chance the Gophers drop to 5th in the Pairwise.
That would mean that the Gophers would get sent to Madison to face Wisconsin in the NCAA quarterfinals.*
*Unless UMD wins the WCHA
That would be so bad of a screwing that I think they might actually change the flight rules for next year. lol
So I have this year's Tournament Predictor ready to go once the regular season wraps up, and in playing around with some results I found an interesting possibility.
It looks like if Minnesota loses 3 times (i.e., loses all three games to Wisconsin, or loses two to Wisconsin and loses before they see Wisconsin again), and Clarkson wins out, there is a better than 50/50 chance the Gophers drop to 5th in the Pairwise.
That would mean that the Gophers would get sent to Madison to face Wisconsin in the NCAA quarterfinals.*
*Unless UMD wins the WCHA
That would be so bad of a screwing that I think they might actually change the flight rules for next year. lol
ARM
Fan of chipmunk-like mascots.
Re: Dramatic Changes To *This Season's* NCAA Selection Criteria?
Wouldn't that hinge on what happens to Quinnipiac? The Bobcats could lose one game in a quarterfinal and a second at ECAC Championship weekend (the second is a given if Clarkson wins out), and I doubt that they'd still be above a six-loss UM, given they already have five ties. Or is that part of the less than 50% chance in the aforementioned 50/50?
TonyTheTiger20
#SOAR
Re: Dramatic Changes To *This Season's* NCAA Selection Criteria?
Basically the last part. QU has to come close to winning out, which isn't unlikely.
Basically the last part. QU has to come close to winning out, which isn't unlikely.
ARM
Fan of chipmunk-like mascots.
Re: Dramatic Changes To *This Season's* NCAA Selection Criteria?
I doubt UW would do that. If they can beat the Gophs five times, they'd be pretty confident about a sixth win on home ice.
TonyTheTiger20
#SOAR
ARM
Fan of chipmunk-like mascots.
Re: Dramatic Changes To *This Season's* NCAA Selection Criteria?
Considering the lead in, I didn't have a lot to work with.The HOTTEST of blazing hot takes!
Re: Dramatic Changes To *This Season's* NCAA Selection Criteria?
If Quinni wins out and the Gophers lose three times, does that put the Gophers 4th? Roughly speaking (and I'm not asking you to go through all the scenarios since AFAIK you have to enter them manually), what are the odds of the Gophers coming in 3 / 4 / 5?
If Quinni wins out and the Gophers lose three times, does that put the Gophers 4th? Roughly speaking (and I'm not asking you to go through all the scenarios since AFAIK you have to enter them manually), what are the odds of the Gophers coming in 3 / 4 / 5?
Timothy A
Let's go RED!
Re: Dramatic Changes To *This Season's* NCAA Selection Criteria?
This would be ideal. I also would not even mind if UW drops to 4th. All I want is a home ncaa game and to play BC in the semi's.
This would be ideal. I also would not even mind if UW drops to 4th. All I want is a home ncaa game and to play BC in the semi's.
TonyTheTiger20
#SOAR
Re: Dramatic Changes To *This Season's* NCAA Selection Criteria?
It'll be much, much more clear where they can end up once this weekend is over. I might try my hand at putting together a sort of heat map or something for each team based on probabilities and whatnot although that would be a wild undertaking if I did it before the quarterfinals haha.
In almost every scenario, yes, although I think there are a few straggling possibilities where they could go to 5th depending on who the Gophers' 3 losses are to. 3 losses to UW and QU winning out almost definitely has UM in 4th.
Totally off the cuff roughly speaking, when factoring in how likely each game result is likely to happen, I'd probably put the Gophers in 1st at 1%, 2nd/3rd at 50%, 4th at 24%, 5th at 24%, and 6th at 1%.
It'll be much, much more clear where they can end up once this weekend is over. I might try my hand at putting together a sort of heat map or something for each team based on probabilities and whatnot although that would be a wild undertaking if I did it before the quarterfinals haha.
FiveHoleFrenzy
Well-known member
Re: Dramatic Changes To *This Season's* NCAA Selection Criteria?
in 2012-2013 Minnesota, with their perfect record, had, to play North Dakota a 6th time and needed overtime to win in the quarterfinals. At that time UND was better the Wisconsin. bc in the semis which also was an overtime victory and they were likely the 2nd or 3rd best team in the country. BU in the finals.
Even if Minnesota would drop to fourth I'm not sure bc's path to the NC this year would be as difficult because of the likely quarterfinal opponent for bc. Although if the were to meet up with UM in the semis and win and then potentially beat UW in the finals that would be legit (Speaking from a western elitist point of view.)
in 2012-2013 Minnesota, with their perfect record, had, to play North Dakota a 6th time and needed overtime to win in the quarterfinals. At that time UND was better the Wisconsin. bc in the semis which also was an overtime victory and they were likely the 2nd or 3rd best team in the country. BU in the finals.
Even if Minnesota would drop to fourth I'm not sure bc's path to the NC this year would be as difficult because of the likely quarterfinal opponent for bc. Although if the were to meet up with UM in the semis and win and then potentially beat UW in the finals that would be legit (Speaking from a western elitist point of view.)