trixR4kids
New member
Re: Don Lucia steps down as Minnesota Gophers coach
This. They've barely even begun the process if they have at all at this point.
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Don Lucia steps down as Minnesota Gophers coach
- Thread starter 4four4
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Re: Don Lucia steps down as Minnesota Gophers coach
Sure hope that's the case. Evaluating all your options will lead to a more rationale decision.
Re: Don Lucia steps down as Minnesota Gophers coach
That would be ill-advised Trix, unless you want to suffer the slings and arrows of a lack of internal validity and homogeneity of variance. In this case, a researcher wants to demonstrate that the DV (ranking variable) is a linear function of the IVs.
There's better "training data" and a better constant (SOS) chosen for the ranking criterion you're after. If you want to be REALLY technical about your study, it's noteworthy that the least squares regression algorithm necessary for DV accuracy may be fraught with covariates such as outliers that arise from the stochastic relationship between victory margins and relative effort or from the imperfect (and censored) measurement of team ability. Regression models in sports typically have these confounding issues and MORE!
However, based on the above (using the correct constant in the regression algo.) and face validity alone, I suspect the Gophers would not deviate much from the chart I posted before. Sorry about the technical stuff here, but hard to explain it accurately without some of it. There's more but I digress.
That would be ill-advised Trix, unless you want to suffer the slings and arrows of a lack of internal validity and homogeneity of variance. In this case, a researcher wants to demonstrate that the DV (ranking variable) is a linear function of the IVs.
There's better "training data" and a better constant (SOS) chosen for the ranking criterion you're after. If you want to be REALLY technical about your study, it's noteworthy that the least squares regression algorithm necessary for DV accuracy may be fraught with covariates such as outliers that arise from the stochastic relationship between victory margins and relative effort or from the imperfect (and censored) measurement of team ability. Regression models in sports typically have these confounding issues and MORE!
However, based on the above (using the correct constant in the regression algo.) and face validity alone, I suspect the Gophers would not deviate much from the chart I posted before. Sorry about the technical stuff here, but hard to explain it accurately without some of it. There's more but I digress.
mnstate0fhockey
New member
Re: Don Lucia steps down as Minnesota Gophers coach
No criticism intended, but it amazes me how much we as humans want to quantify EVERYTHING. There are too many intangibles (not to mention variables) in an athletic contest to result in any meaningful conclusion, IMO. This isn't (yet) a video game, although I suppose as we evolve more towards robots and eventually upload our brains to "non-human" machine hardware, we will approach this "limit." You should have a discussion with Natasha Vita-Moore (real name Nancie Clark), Chairwoman of the Board of Directors of Humanity+ and author of the Transhuman Manifesto, who wants to turn us into robots.
That would be ill-advised Trix, unless you want to suffer the slings and arrows of a lack of internal validity and homogeneity of variance. In this case, a researcher wants to demonstrate that the DV (ranking variable) is a linear function of the IVs.
There's better "training data" and a better constant (SOS) chosen for the ranking criterion you're after. If you want to be REALLY technical about your study, it's noteworthy that the least squares regression algorithm necessary for DV accuracy may be fraught with covariates such as outliers that arise from the stochastic relationship between victory margins and relative effort or from the imperfect (and censored) measurement of team ability. Regression models in sports typically have these confounding issues and MORE!
However, based on the above (using the correct constant in the regression algo.) and face validity alone, I suspect the Gophers would not deviate much from the chart I posted before. Sorry about the technical stuff here, but hard to explain it accurately without some of it. There's more but I digress.
No criticism intended, but it amazes me how much we as humans want to quantify EVERYTHING. There are too many intangibles (not to mention variables) in an athletic contest to result in any meaningful conclusion, IMO. This isn't (yet) a video game, although I suppose as we evolve more towards robots and eventually upload our brains to "non-human" machine hardware, we will approach this "limit." You should have a discussion with Natasha Vita-Moore (real name Nancie Clark), Chairwoman of the Board of Directors of Humanity+ and author of the Transhuman Manifesto, who wants to turn us into robots.
Re: Don Lucia steps down as Minnesota Gophers coach
Predictability in sports is historically difficult to validate because of "intangibles" or extraneous variables. There are ways to "control" for these through a regression model, but it's gets to be a bit time consuming finding a "best fit". Which is one of the reasons I don't spin them out for USCHO threads. That and it's complicated to explain in this context. Teaching it at the university and engaging in my own personal research for publication is enough work for me.
EDIT:
Oops...I wanted to respond to your "robots" comment. Totally off topic, but AI research has escalated exponentially over the last five years. I'm a neuroscientist and I can tell you this...we won't evolve, but many will soon (5-10 years) be "controlled" thru AI-stimulated brain implants.
Predictability in sports is historically difficult to validate because of "intangibles" or extraneous variables. There are ways to "control" for these through a regression model, but it's gets to be a bit time consuming finding a "best fit". Which is one of the reasons I don't spin them out for USCHO threads. That and it's complicated to explain in this context. Teaching it at the university and engaging in my own personal research for publication is enough work for me.
EDIT:
Oops...I wanted to respond to your "robots" comment. Totally off topic, but AI research has escalated exponentially over the last five years. I'm a neuroscientist and I can tell you this...we won't evolve, but many will soon (5-10 years) be "controlled" thru AI-stimulated brain implants.
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Re: Don Lucia steps down as Minnesota Gophers coach
I'm going to take a wild guess and say that a majority of Gophers fans knew this. tDon earned the right to "resign" rather than be fired (dignity/appearance) thing. Now, Serratore probably shouldn't have said what he said, but no big deal to me.
I'm going to take a wild guess and say that a majority of Gophers fans knew this. tDon earned the right to "resign" rather than be fired (dignity/appearance) thing. Now, Serratore probably shouldn't have said what he said, but no big deal to me.
Re: Don Lucia steps down as Minnesota Gophers coach
So there were a number of people pointing to Lucia's recent record in the NCAA (a one-and-done crapshoot) as proof he had to go. Yet there are a lot of people pointing to Motzko as a top choice without any mention of his NCAA record (what is it by the way? I don't know.) Also, he gets a lot of credit for US Junior performances, in which the coach has little time to coach, mainly just game management in a couple weeks. He clearly has a good record for regular games, which is probably the best indicator, so not saying he isn't a very good coach. Just pointing out some of the points used by some to suggest he is the best successor and compare to things that were used to be critical of Lucia.
So there were a number of people pointing to Lucia's recent record in the NCAA (a one-and-done crapshoot) as proof he had to go. Yet there are a lot of people pointing to Motzko as a top choice without any mention of his NCAA record (what is it by the way? I don't know.) Also, he gets a lot of credit for US Junior performances, in which the coach has little time to coach, mainly just game management in a couple weeks. He clearly has a good record for regular games, which is probably the best indicator, so not saying he isn't a very good coach. Just pointing out some of the points used by some to suggest he is the best successor and compare to things that were used to be critical of Lucia.
Re: Don Lucia steps down as Minnesota Gophers coach
According to others, Lucia was headed this way for a few years. Russo said he thought Lucia would have retired this year regardless of what happened. Lucia told the story of sitting in an arena watching Bantams and asking himself if he really wanted to do this any longer. He suggested he brought up retirement to Coyle, not vice versa. One statement by Serratore doesn't prove anything. Lucia easily could have been referring to the pressure from idiots like us and alums who were being critical. He has always had tons of pressure and criticism and he had had enough, from the sounds of it. That could just as easily have been what he was 'surrendering to'. Everything else suggests that the only real pressure he got from Coyle was the fact that an extension hadn't been offered. None of us really know what happened and I don't thin the Serratore comment makes it any clearer.
According to others, Lucia was headed this way for a few years. Russo said he thought Lucia would have retired this year regardless of what happened. Lucia told the story of sitting in an arena watching Bantams and asking himself if he really wanted to do this any longer. He suggested he brought up retirement to Coyle, not vice versa. One statement by Serratore doesn't prove anything. Lucia easily could have been referring to the pressure from idiots like us and alums who were being critical. He has always had tons of pressure and criticism and he had had enough, from the sounds of it. That could just as easily have been what he was 'surrendering to'. Everything else suggests that the only real pressure he got from Coyle was the fact that an extension hadn't been offered. None of us really know what happened and I don't thin the Serratore comment makes it any clearer.
Re: Don Lucia steps down as Minnesota Gophers coach
I agree. Lou Nanne, who has been in the inner circle of Gopher hockey for decades, stated like himself with the NS, Don Lucia felt personally it was time to move on. Don left on his own terms which is the way it should be. The escalated clamor from Gopher fans this season may have sealed it for him.
I agree. Lou Nanne, who has been in the inner circle of Gopher hockey for decades, stated like himself with the NS, Don Lucia felt personally it was time to move on. Don left on his own terms which is the way it should be. The escalated clamor from Gopher fans this season may have sealed it for him.
Re: Don Lucia steps down as Minnesota Gophers coach
Well my point is that prior to the Holy Cross victory, a hockey game in the NCAA wasn't as 'fluky' as it is now. And that isn't because the game itself has changed much. It is because teams are so much closer in skill. Same reason that teams that 'almost always make the tourney' aren't making it as often. I think Holy Cross, while viewed at the time as one of the great upsets in sports, was just a sign of what was coming. And with that parity, comes lower winning percentages during the year and more difficulty making the tourney than what was happening through the first several years of a 16 team tourney. As I said, I'm not arguing your point that things could be better than this year. I am just saying that a lot of people think MN should be able to be as consistently dominant as they were in the early to mid 2000's given their advantages, and I don't think that is realistic. Things have changed. I am also trying to point out that I think the bitter taste of the last four games has really clouded the memory for the season, that while inconsistent, included some pretty good stretches as well.
This years team had a lot of games with poor effort that doomed them once the stars aligned against them at the end. One of the writers talked about Lucia being frustrated at times that the players just didn't seem to get the message, no matter what the coaches tried. So with some new faces and a new make-up, and especially if CM decides to stay, it is reasonable to expect this team might perform better next year, compared to this (regression towards the mean). The new coach would receive credit. But I could also envision that in 5 years, they aren't near the top in the country and people will start rumbling about the coach again. Hopefully I am wrong, but I really think that as long as kids are recruited at 15 (or younger) and the NHL CBA favors signing young guys, it is going to be much more difficult for MN to consistently be in the top 10. (And maybe this isn't clear, I am not saying that the traditional powers will be at the same level as the Maine's, MSU's, Western Michigan's, Quinnipiac's, but that the size of the gap between these teams that existed 15 years ago has shrunk considerably. And there are more SCSU's, UMD's etc. that will be very close.)
Well my point is that prior to the Holy Cross victory, a hockey game in the NCAA wasn't as 'fluky' as it is now. And that isn't because the game itself has changed much. It is because teams are so much closer in skill. Same reason that teams that 'almost always make the tourney' aren't making it as often. I think Holy Cross, while viewed at the time as one of the great upsets in sports, was just a sign of what was coming. And with that parity, comes lower winning percentages during the year and more difficulty making the tourney than what was happening through the first several years of a 16 team tourney. As I said, I'm not arguing your point that things could be better than this year. I am just saying that a lot of people think MN should be able to be as consistently dominant as they were in the early to mid 2000's given their advantages, and I don't think that is realistic. Things have changed. I am also trying to point out that I think the bitter taste of the last four games has really clouded the memory for the season, that while inconsistent, included some pretty good stretches as well.
This years team had a lot of games with poor effort that doomed them once the stars aligned against them at the end. One of the writers talked about Lucia being frustrated at times that the players just didn't seem to get the message, no matter what the coaches tried. So with some new faces and a new make-up, and especially if CM decides to stay, it is reasonable to expect this team might perform better next year, compared to this (regression towards the mean). The new coach would receive credit. But I could also envision that in 5 years, they aren't near the top in the country and people will start rumbling about the coach again. Hopefully I am wrong, but I really think that as long as kids are recruited at 15 (or younger) and the NHL CBA favors signing young guys, it is going to be much more difficult for MN to consistently be in the top 10. (And maybe this isn't clear, I am not saying that the traditional powers will be at the same level as the Maine's, MSU's, Western Michigan's, Quinnipiac's, but that the size of the gap between these teams that existed 15 years ago has shrunk considerably. And there are more SCSU's, UMD's etc. that will be very close.)
Re: Don Lucia steps down as Minnesota Gophers coach
If tDon made the tourney this year, I bet he would have come back next year, just to finish out his contract, and the U would have been scouting out a replacement. How things turned out this year accelerated that, I think, and the extra noise that fence-sitting fans (like me) finally made may have or may have not added to that decision. Until this year, I was on the "keep tDon" bandwagon, but barely.
If tDon made the tourney this year, I bet he would have come back next year, just to finish out his contract, and the U would have been scouting out a replacement. How things turned out this year accelerated that, I think, and the extra noise that fence-sitting fans (like me) finally made may have or may have not added to that decision. Until this year, I was on the "keep tDon" bandwagon, but barely.
trixR4kids
New member
Nothing wrong with being technical, put more simply I get that factoring that into the analysis would be tougher to do. But I’m not going to get too enamored with win percentage when we know a lot of it is propped up by other factors such as the B1G being horrible and the Gophers basically sneaking in with an autobid one of those years and straight up missing altogether despite winning a league title in another. Looking at those years individually you have 4 good ones and 3 pretty bad ones.That would be ill-advised Trix, unless you want to suffer the slings and arrows of a lack of internal validity and homogeneity of variance. In this case, a researcher wants to demonstrate that the DV (ranking variable) is a linear function of the IVs.
There's better "training data" and a better constant (SOS) chosen for the ranking criterion you're after. If you want to be REALLY technical about your study, it's noteworthy that the least squares regression algorithm necessary for DV accuracy may be fraught with covariates such as outliers that arise from the stochastic relationship between victory margins and relative effort or from the imperfect (and censored) measurement of team ability. Regression models in sports typically have these confounding issues and MORE!
However, based on the above (using the correct constant in the regression algo.) and face validity alone, I suspect the Gophers would not deviate much from the chart I posted before. Sorry about the technical stuff here, but hard to explain it accurately without some of it. There's more but I digress.
5 NCAA’s in ten years is awful for this program no matter how you slice it. Your analysis sorta cut out those 3 years too because Don was ill, I don’t think that necessarily is as deserving of a pass as some do I guess and I’m not just gonna throw that data out. If you include it I’d hazard our win % isn’t as impressive.
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Agree with most everything you have said. Your posts are very thoughtful and insightful.
Re: Don Lucia steps down as Minnesota Gophers coach
Well, he's a little older than compared to Fleck and Pitino so this rumor might have some legs. lol
Well, he's a little older than compared to Fleck and Pitino so this rumor might have some legs. lol
Re: Don Lucia steps down as Minnesota Gophers coach
You obviously haven't read my posts in past Bemidji Beaver game threads. I can be plenty immature too.
You obviously haven't read my posts in past Bemidji Beaver game threads. I can be plenty immature too.
Slap Shot
I got nothing
Re: Don Lucia steps down as Minnesota Gophers coach
Based upon what historically? Your sample size notwithstanding they made it 10/15 years and 13/19 and no coach other than Woog (who never won a NC) can beat that. Not even Brooks although obviously Brooks did more once his teams got there. I agree it was time to move on, but you have a really bizarre, unhealthy and quite frankly ignorant perspective on the big picture of Lucia's tenure.
Based upon what historically? Your sample size notwithstanding they made it 10/15 years and 13/19 and no coach other than Woog (who never won a NC) can beat that. Not even Brooks although obviously Brooks did more once his teams got there. I agree it was time to move on, but you have a really bizarre, unhealthy and quite frankly ignorant perspective on the big picture of Lucia's tenure.