There's a number of factors at play:
- Is someone who voted for Trump the first time really not going to vote for him the second time? It's not like none of the things he's done were totally unpredictable.
- If someone is at this point motivated to not vote for Trump, given the overwhelming list of reasons not to, is someone going to specifically not vote for a particular Dem candidate? I've said before I'm voting for whoever it is among the remaining 5/6, so I'm clearly not someone who can read every else's mind here.
- Is there a candidate who will push people to the polls to vote against Trump who weren't already going? Again, I'm not the best person to render a verdict here. People say Bernie here; were Bernie voters, being as active and vocal as many are, though, really going to allow a second Trump term if he weren't the nominee.
- Is there a candidate who will have an active GOTO effort, above the usual party efforts? Here's where I think it might get interesting. I think a big part of winning is having an active ground game in the states that matter, with really interested and active volunteers knocking on doors, driving people to the polls, just in general having a noteworthy physical presence. This doesn't mean every person they get to vote for their candidate is as gung-ho as they are, far from it, but in the end a vote is a vote. This is where honestly the Bernie campaign is intriguing, because of all of the candidates they would fit this description the best.