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Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

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Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

Rover said:
A probable weak nominee in 2012
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A good nominee won't win them the general in the teeth of an improved economy, but a bad choice (Palin and Huckabee come to mind) could blow it even with a bad economy. Double jeopardy, since if they have a real shot and the GOP nominates somebody from their big business wing, the Tea Party and the social conservatives might be not be bought off with a Veep bone. And who would take it? Jindal I guess as Quayle the Second.
 
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Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

Chris Christie would be nice, the US could use a fat guy from Jersey.

Edit: Or, of course, the pipe dream of David Petraeus.
 
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Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

WeWantMore said:
More "establishment" GOP folks I've read seem to think Rand Paul would be a pretty good Senator in opposition, but if they take back the presidency, he could be a major thorn in their side.
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They deserve thorns in their side.

Kepler opining on who would and wouldn't be a strong candidate for the GOP is kind of a joke, isn't it? I mean, when you're as paranoid as he is, seeing conservatives and Christian fundamentalists and war criminals around every corner... kinda clouds your vision a little.
 
Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

Red Cloud said:
They deserve thorns in their side.

Kepler opining on who would and wouldn't be a strong candidate for the GOP is kind of a joke, isn't it?
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Fair enough that I do not wish that particular house well, but do you disagree that Palin and Huckabee would find it hard to expand on the GOP base?

They've got the problem rump parties tend to have: energize the base by moving to the right and don't make inroads in the center; move to the center to expand the party and alienate the base. Not insoluble, especially not this year when they can run local races without any top of the ticket coherence, but eventually they'll have to deal with it.

(Or they can wait for the Dems to implode and just lose support, a la Labour. That's usually a pretty good bet.)

And I don't see conservatives around every corner -- right now in the GOP there is barely a single conservative.
 
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Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

Rand Paul up 18% in latest poll:
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/ky_2010_sen_primary_ppp_51516.php
Tim Burns (R) could take John Murtha's old House seat:
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/pa12_2010_house_special_ppp_51.php


Happy to see Rand's numbers there, however I'm not so sure how much trust I'd put in them. With the KY closed primary rules, you have to have been registered as a Republican by the end of last year in order to vote, so I'd expect the actual polls tomorrow to be much closer.
 
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Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

WeWantMore said:
Chris Christie would be nice, the US could use a fat guy from Jersey.

Edit: Or, of course, the pipe dream of David Petraeus.
Click to expand...

Christie's immediate problem is his approval rating has sunk like a heavy....stone in NJ, so time will tell on him.

Normally, a guy like Romney would be a good fit. No sleazy scandals, good on financial management/job creation with his venture capital background, has the pedigree that Republicans always like with this father being a governor. Problem is he's doomed. What's the main thing righties hate about the health care plan? The individual mandate. What did Romney sign into law in Mass? The individual mandate. Might as well just have signed a bill expanding abortion rights. I expect that to be brought up in a nanosecond by the first GOP speaker in the first primary debate.

PS - I also like Red Cloud's assertation that apparently you have to be a wingnut to comment on their Presidential candidates. By that standard, I guess we won't be hearing from him anymore on all things Obama. :D :rolleyes:
 
Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

Rover said:
Christie's immediate problem is his approval rating has sunk like a heavy....stone in NJ, so time will tell on him.
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That's the thing though, NJ is a mess. He's had to cut and cut and cut, of course that's going to make him unpopular. However, let's say things have turned around in 2 years, then he's a hero, and a very viable anti-Obama candidate.
 
Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

WeWantMore said:
That's the thing though, NJ is a mess. He's had to cut and cut and cut, of course that's going to make him unpopular.
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Someday this will be known as the Cameron Conundrum.

Maybe there will be some slack cut by the voters considering every state is in trouble -- all the governors should invoke austerity cuts to bring their budgets back into balance simultaneously. Then it will be bipartisan and potentially survivable, like TARP and the bailouts. If they do it piecemeal, they'll be picked off one by one.
 
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Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

WeWantMore said:
That's the thing though, NJ is a mess. He's had to cut and cut and cut, of course that's going to make him unpopular. However, let's say things have turned around in 2 years, then he's a hero, and a very viable anti-Obama candidate.
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He's pretty much on record as saying he doesn't care about opinion polls or even whether he's going to get re-elected or pushed toward higher office. That's refreshing in and of itself.

You know else is awesome? This verbal beatdown of a clown journalist from the Star-Ledger.

<table style="border:0px; padding:0px;"><tr><td><font style="font-size:13px; font-family:Verdana; font-weight:bold; font-color:#293546">Gov Christie calls S-L columnist thin-skinned for inquiring about his 'confrontational tone'</font></td></tr><tr><td><script type="text/javascript" src="http://tribeca.vidavee.com/advance/trh/embedAsset.js?width=470.0&height=265.0&wmode=transparent&skin=v3AdvInt.swf&dockey=9FEA67B9DD20334EECCF9D7FDFA38E69&"></script></td></tr></table>
 
Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

Red Cloud said:
You know else is awesome? This verbal beatdown of a clown journalist from the Star-Ledger.
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Heard part of that on the radio, its even better now that I've heard the whole thing.
 
Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

WeWantMore said:
That's the thing though, NJ is a mess. He's had to cut and cut and cut, of course that's going to make him unpopular. However, let's say things have turned around in 2 years, then he's a hero, and a very viable anti-Obama candidate.
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Sure, but what, where, and how you cut matters. What makes you a hero to the talk radio set might not be looked upon as favorable by the voters. For example, cutting law enforecment.

Romney is a good example of a Republican in a Dem state that dealt with a fiscal crisis pretty well. Cut some, raised some revenue, used some rainy day fund $$$, etc. I don't recall too many legitimate beefs with how he handled that. Much like you'd expect from someone with his business background. In a different political climate, that would be a big advantage for him.

Not sure how Christie will play out, but I am amused by Red Cloud salivating over the guy saying he doesn't care about his polls or re-election. Gee, doesn't every politician say that who's #'s are down? How is it that if Obama said that, he'd be FOS but a Republican says it and he's a straight talking truth teller. :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes:
 
Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

Red Cloud said:
Nice strawman. I totally said that.
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Just sayin'. Watching politicos hammer the media is like listening to Tim McCarver talk about the corner men playing close to the line in the late innings. Even when there's truth to it, it's still inevitable and annoying.
 
Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

Rover said:
Sure, but what, where, and how you cut matters. What makes you a hero to the talk radio set might not be looked upon as favorable by the voters.
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The best example of this is social assistance. The right is continually wheezing with fantasies of burning down the welfare state, but Timmy Tea Party is probably the biggest welfare queen in the country. :p

Those federal checks don't write themselves, Cletus.
 
Re: Death to the Incumbent!! Your guide to the 2010 primaries

Kepler said:
The best example of this is social assistance. The right is continually wheezing with fantasies of burning down the welfare state, but Timmy Tea Party is probably the biggest welfare queen in the country. :p

Those federal checks don't write themselves, Cletus.
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That's what fascinates me about the Kentucky election, and to a lesser extent the Arkansas one. Rand Paul is an out and out no govt help whatsoever kind of guy. I'm real curious what happens when his opponent starts pointing out which state residents lose under that approach. His opponent for the GOP nomination in the closing debate sounded like an honest to goodness Dem talking about how some Fed $$$ was necessary. That's doom in the primaries, but with a well known and funded opposition candidate in the general, it'll be interesting to watch.
 
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