Death to the Incumbent! Part Two: Now with more Death.

[WeWantMore]

Re: Death to the Incumbent! Part Two: Now with more Death.

Like the Republicans didn't vote for Roberts.

I think Republicans have been very happy with Roberts.

Did I miss the point you were trying to make?

 

[Hammer]

Re: Death to the Incumbent! Part Two: Now with more Death.

Okay, we're two days from the election. Is it time to make predictions on the makeup of the House and Senate?

 

[WeWantMore]

Re: Death to the Incumbent! Part Two: Now with more Death.

Okay, we're two days from the election. Is it time to make predictions on the makeup of the House and Senate?

The final Gallup generic ballot poll was just released. Has Republicans up 55-40. Plug that into the Swingometer and it gives GOP +71 in the house.

I'm thinking it will only be around GOP +45 or so though, plus 7 Senate pick ups.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Death to the Incumbent! Part Two: Now with more Death.

Okay, we're two days from the election. Is it time to make predictions on the makeup of the House and Senate?

Senate: Dem 52 GOP 48 (GOP +7)
House: GOP 234 Dem 201 (GOP +55)
President: Dem 1 GOP 0

 

[LynahFan]

Re: Death to the Incumbent! Part Two: Now with more Death.

Senate: Dem 52 GOP 48 (GOP +7)
House: GOP 234 Dem 201 (GOP +55)
President: Dem 1 GOP 0

...having a little trouble seeing any way Obama comes out looking like a winner.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Death to the Incumbent! Part Two: Now with more Death.

...having a little trouble seeing any way Obama comes out looking like a winner.

Point is, he's still president though, and like Clinton from '94, that's worth a lot deciding where the country goes.

This will be a very sobering election for the Dems, but assuming the rebound starts to show in employment by 2012, I don't think Obama will have a lot of trouble in his re-election, and the GOP will have the House on their hands and no longer be able to run as strictly an out party, so they probably won't make huge gains again that year. Also, tidal waves wash a lot of garbage ashore, and the GOP will have to protect a lot of very weak incumbent Congressmen in 2012, so both sides will probably hold the line.

I have a feeling those numbers will be the general makeup of the government for the next 6 years, particularly if the GOP takes the wrong lesson from Tuesday. The wrong lesson is the country is buying what they're selling. The right lesson is the country is mad as hell and unless the government at least appears to be acting on our serious problems they will remain that way, and the churn will continue.

 

[WeWantMore]

Re: Death to the Incumbent! Part Two: Now with more Death.

I'm not foolish enough to think this is any sort of over-arching conservative mandate, however, I disagree with this:

unless the government at least appears to be acting on our serious problems they will remain that way

I don't think the Democrats problem is that they don't appear to be acting on serious problems. I mean, they've addressed the economy (stimulus), health care (obvious), and the environment (cap and trade). I think the problem is more that people don't like the way that they've addressed them.

 

[5mn_Major]

Re: Death to the Incumbent! Part Two: Now with more Death.

"Affluent rural whites" is more or less an oxymoron - how many times have we had to listen to some of the board's resident lefties complaining about federal funds flowing from urban blue states to rural red states? Guess "safety nets" are only okay if they're going to the right kind of poor people.

...and I guess government subsidy payments are ok when theyre to states that agree with your point of view. Fiscal conservatism takes a backseat yet again.

And finally, who cares what people who don't vote think? I sense a new slogan. The Democratic Party: Preferred by More People Who Don't Give a Poop.

That wasn't your point though. The country has center right voters. Your point was that the US is a center right country. It is not...

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Death to the Incumbent! Part Two: Now with more Death.

Still waiting to hear about the great center-right legislation that has passed in the last 30 years or so. Since we're a center-right nation this should be easy.

 

[SJHovey]

Re: Death to the Incumbent! Part Two: Now with more Death.

Still waiting to hear about the great center-right legislation that has passed in the last 30 years or so. Since we're a center-right nation this should be easy.

My guess is you'll have to wait a long time. Although, to be completely fair, there is a conservative line of thought that some of the best legislation is that which didn't pass.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Death to the Incumbent! Part Two: Now with more Death.

My guess is you'll have to wait a long time. Although, to be completely fair, there is a conservative line of thought that some of the best legislation is that which didn't pass.

In the last 8 years or so we've had a chance to have some good down the middle legislation in a number of areas where legislation was sorely needed (doing nothing was not a viable option). In all cases extremes on both sides won out to either prevent a good bill, or prevent a bill altogether. To the detriment of ALL.

I'm still waiting.

 

[MinnFan]

Re: Death to the Incumbent! Part Two: Now with more Death.

Still waiting to hear about the great center-right legislation that has passed in the last 30 years or so. Since we're a center-right nation this should be easy.

When you think about it center-right legislation would be bills that are never forwarded since the belief is in smaller gov't. I will concur that little outside of tax cuts and some of the measures under Reagan has been done to actually reduce gov't.

 

[geezer]

Re: Death to the Incumbent! Part Two: Now with more Death.

The wrong lesson is the country is buying what they're selling. The right lesson is the country is mad as hell and unless the government at least appears to be acting on our serious problems they will remain that way, and the churn will continue.

You're absolutely right. The biggest "serious problem" being the size of the debt/deficit, which isn't going to be solved by tax cuts. We're looking for politicians serious about cutting spending, and I fear they're not in the offing. The carnage will therefore continue, and I'm no longer sure Obama will serve two terms (even assuming a continued slow recovery, I give him a 50-50 chance; a double dip in 2011 -likely if the Bush tax cuts expire- will probably end his chances).

 

[geezer]

Re: Death to the Incumbent! Part Two: Now with more Death.

Your point was that the US is a center right country. It is not...

When Americans are surveyed, far more claim to be conservative than liberal. Conservatism is relatively politically inactive by definition. So among voters, about equal numbers are conservative and liberal because of the large numbers of conservative people that aren't interested in voting. So the government always has been and always will be more liberal ("activist"/"progressive") than the population.
You might be arguing about the US having a liberal government (true) vs. a conservative populace (also true) in general.
In years like this when legislation swings way over to the left and 3 trillion is added to the debt for a negative benefit, it brings out a slightly more accurate representation of the people's wishes in the election, because a larger overall percentage of voters will get off their butts.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Death to the Incumbent! Part Two: Now with more Death.

Tax cuts have become like spending increases -- they're permanent because there is a superficial argument that can be made for them no matter what the circumstances. The only way either higher taxes or lower spending will ever pass again will be as a package deal put through by a split government facing a dire economy. During good times voter support for any tough decision will be instantly undercut by opportunism from the other side. So the only time to do it is during bad times, but that's not possible when one party controls the entire government, as we saw with the GOP failing to cut spending in 2000-06 and then the Dems failing to raise taxes since 2008. Of course, nobody did anything between 2006-08, so it may well be impossible now, too, in which case we're SOL.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Death to the Incumbent! Part Two: Now with more Death.

When Americans are surveyed, far more claim to be conservative than liberal. Conservatism is relatively politically inactive by definition. So among voters, about equal numbers are conservative and liberal because of the large numbers of conservative people that aren't interested in voting. So the government always has been and always will be more liberal ("activist"/"progressive") than the population.
You might be arguing about the US having a liberal government (true) vs. a conservative populace (also true) in general.
In years like this when legislation swings way over to the left and 3 trillion is added to the debt for a negative benefit, it brings out a slightly more accurate representation of the people's wishes in the election, because a larger overall percentage of voters will get off their butts.

Those silent conservatives must be really lazy, then, since they don't show up in surveys, either.

There's absolutely no proof that non-voters are demonstrably different in political affiliation from voters. Your argument is specious. The reason more people claim to be "conservative" than "liberal" is the connotations of the words far outstrip their political labels. What matters is people's opinions on specific issues, and there you'll find a nice bell curve with the center point pretty much dead center on the average of the R and D positions.

People who favor liberal causes don't think they're being "progressive" unless they're obnoxious college students. They think it's just ordinary common sense.

 

[geezer]

Re: Death to the Incumbent! Part Two: Now with more Death.

Those silent conservatives must be really lazy, then, since they don't show up in surveys, either.

There's absolutely no proof that non-voters are demonstrably different in political affiliation from voters. Your argument is specious.

I'd find the study again, but I take it I'd be wasting my time again.
So you're saying that a majority of people only claim to be "conservative" because they misunderstand the term. gotcha.

By the way, it is also true that they don't show up in surveys. Far more conservatives hang up on pollsters than liberals (they place a higher value on privacy). But the good pollsters account for it.

 

[geezer]

Re: Death to the Incumbent! Part Two: Now with more Death.

we're SOL.

I agree with this analysis. (feeling a little doom-and-gloom today, despite Ndamukong Suh's best efforts)

 

[Kepler]

Re: Death to the Incumbent! Part Two: Now with more Death.

I'd find the study again, but I take it I'd be wasting my time again.
So you're saying that a majority of people only claim to be "conservative" because they misunderstand the term. gotcha.

No, I'm saying a majority of people claim to be conservative the way everybody claims they're middle class. As you said yourself, "liberal" has the connotation of being a delta from the present, and most people view the present as something they are more or less atuned with.

Try the same survey and ask people whether they are "progressive" or "reactionary." That's the correct opposition of terms.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Death to the Incumbent! Part Two: Now with more Death.

I agree with this analysis. (feeling a little doom-and-gloom today, despite Ndamukong Suh's best efforts)

I don't think we're any more SOL now than we've ever been. Democracy means always being about to slide into the abyss. Or alternately, it's the terror that your neighbor who can't even remember trash day does remember Election Day.

The parents* of the people on 16 and Pregnant vote. If you think about that for more than a full minute you'll go crazy.

(* actually, that's probably a great Critical Test for whether you're liberal or conservative. Whatever you assume those people vote, you're the opposite. I'm personally dead solid certain that the vast majority of those people are Palinites. )