D-I Outlook for 2011-2012: Offseason Musings and Beyond

[Trillium]

Re: D-I Outlook for 2011-2012: Offseason Musings and Beyond

Here's my top 10 list for 11-12:

1. Wisconsin
2. Cornell

3. Minnesota
4. North Dakota
5. Boston U
6. UMD
7. Quinnipiac
8. Mercyhurst
9. Dartmouth
10. pick'em --close race between: Northeastern, BC, Providence, Ohio State

 

[granddaddyscout]

Re: D-I Outlook for 2011-2012: Offseason Musings and Beyond

Here are my top 10 thoughts;
1. Wisconsin- strong recruiting class, the top returning forward class, solid goalie and defense return as well. Duggan didn't have a point in the championship game, still she will be missed.

2. Minnesota - need to learn how to win late in the season. Should be hungry after embarrassing themselves at BC. Best returning goaltender, very strong returnees at fwd and Def. will need to beat UW twice to stay this high in the polls.

3. Boston U - best of the east but not as close to UW as the score suggested in my mind. Poulin is great but needs more support. With a much weaker BC should have a better record, if they do play UW at UW that will be a real indicator.

4. Cornell - will probably poll much higher based on another week schedule, but this is where they belong. Get a lot of scoring from their def during the regular season, but it disappears when the competition gets tougher.

5. North Dakota - The Lams will only carry them so far, I don't think they can over take UW or UM this year. May struggle to poll this high unless they beat UW and UM at least once a piece.
6. UMD - I am only ranking UDM this high based on Miller's ability as a coach. May be her weakest roster in several years. I think she may be losing a strong player to a transfer as well.

7. Providence - I think LaCasse will steal a couple of big games next year and pc will make the NCAA bracket. A down year for BC helps them get over the top.

8. Quinnipiac - Didn�t get a chance to see them play, but word of mouth leads me to believe they will be more consistent and get to the top 8. I don't think they make the NCAA bracket though. Mercyhurst holds on to the last spot with a good record against a weaker CHA schedule.
9. Mercyhurst - lose way too much scoring to be a top tier team next year, even if they get all the transfers they are rumored to get.

10. Northeastern - I think another year helps this team a lot, could slide up to and 8 or a 9 with if a few things go their way. Once again a team that will benefit from a weekend BC.

Other notables -

Dartmouth - I think it is clear now they won a fluky game against a Cornell team that wasn't nearly as strong as the polls suggested. Then Cornell destroyed then in the NCAA game.

BC - just losing way to much the best goalie in the country and the best forward in the east. The late goals from Stack won't be there next year and even if they were, this time around the opponents will be up by 3 instead of a tie or a 1 goal differential.

Ohio State - a sleeper, lots of talent but can they play as a team. Need a better sense of direction, if they get it they could be a top 8 team.

 

[dave1381]

Re: D-I Outlook for 2011-2012: Offseason Musings and Beyond

I more or less agree with what everyone has said.

I don't see a whole lot of difference between BU and Cornell though in the quality of their league competition. Providence & Northeastern seem comparable Quinnipiac & Dartmouth -- and all four of those teams are pretty far from Minnesota & UND & UMD. I don't see BU or Cornell getting past the WCHA champ in the Frozen Four yet again, and they'll struggle if they happen to draw a WCHA quarterfinal opponent.

If the criteria is unchanged, it seems likely the WCHA will still only get 3 in the tourney again, even if they have 4 of the top 6 in reality.

 

[brookyone]

Re: D-I Outlook for 2011-2012: Offseason Musings and Beyond

Here are my top 10 thoughts;
5. North Dakota - The Lams will only carry them so far, I don't think they can over take UW or UM this year. May struggle to poll this high unless they beat UW and UM at least once a piece.

The Lams are the heart of the Sioux and the catalysts for sure...but I think they did as well as they did in 2010-2011 due to good seasons and impact had by a few others on the roster in support of Mo & Jo. The Sioux improvement was not unexpected but I think some of the contributions of teammates may have been a bit of a pleasant surprise. I think they're (Mo & Jo) gonna have quite a bit more help in 2011-2012...so I think your ranking is realistic...and I would not expect them to go winless vs. UW next season.

6. UMD - I am only ranking UDM this high based on Miller's ability as a coach. May be her weakest roster in several years. I think she may be losing a strong player to a transfer as well.

 

[SCSU2039]

Re: D-I Outlook for 2011-2012: Offseason Musings and Beyond

At this point, I'd predict MSU and SCSU remain towards the bottom of the standings.

I have to agree with that about my SCSU Huskies. I will say that I don't think SCSU will be a 1 win team next year either. They could have won several other games last year and hopefully they can put things together better and manage a few more wins. Even if the team surprises us all, I don't see SCSU or MSU for that matter higher than 6th. The other teams in the WCHA are just plain out better than both of them.

All that said, I'm ready to forget the forgettable season SCSU had and look forward to the drubbings coming next year!

 

[brookyone]

Re: D-I Outlook for 2011-2012: Offseason Musings and Beyond

I have to agree with that about my SCSU Huskies. I will say that I don't think SCSU will be a 1 win team next year either. They could have won several other games last year and hopefully they can put things together better and manage a few more wins. Even if the team surprises us all, I don't see SCSU or MSU for that matter higher than 6th. The other teams in the WCHA are just plain out better than both of them.

All that said, I'm ready to forget the forgettable season SCSU had and look forward to the drubbings coming next year!

I have to believe there is no way the Huskies duplicate the futility that was last season for them. Minnesota Senior Goalie of the Year Friend should be a valuable addition. I've always thought highly of both Ness and Hanmer...two more nice additions. I would expect the Huskies do at least a little better in the conference vs. BSU, MSU...and uh...UMD...

 

[OnMAA]

Re: D-I Outlook for 2011-2012: Offseason Musings and Beyond

I'm surprised no one is mentioning Harvard in the same breath as Dartmouth as a nibbler at the 8-12 ranking region. IMHO they have more depth and potential than Dartmouth, specially on D. Agree that neither is a good candidate for top 8, but they are both strong contenders in the next tier.

 

[zoofer]

Re: D-I Outlook for 2011-2012: Offseason Musings and Beyond

I think it's amazing that no one even mentions UNH...after being the perrenial power in the East for years, with one awful year, they are off everyone's radar.....promise me that you all will keep it that way, okay? Who doesn't enjoy being the underdog...

 

[Bumbles]

Re: D-I Outlook for 2011-2012: Offseason Musings and Beyond

I just have a question regarding how ridiculously loaded UND is going to be next year. How is it possible that they are only graduating one senior but have a 9/10 person recruiting class coming in? Aren't there limitations on roster size/scholarships? They look like they're going to have 30+ on the roster and should be able to go 4 lines deep. Scary.

 

[brookyone]

Re: D-I Outlook for 2011-2012: Offseason Musings and Beyond

I just have a question regarding how ridiculously loaded UND is going to be next year. How is it possible that they are only graduating one senior but have a 9/10 person recruiting class coming in? Aren't there limitations on roster size/scholarships? They look like they're going to have 30+ on the roster and should be able to go 4 lines deep. Scary.

My guess would be for severely limited ice time for a few on that roster...compared to what they had in 2010-2011 as a strong possibility. Probably including games spent in the stands and not dressed to play for some as well...at times. We'll see if all remain content with their circumstances I s'pose. There's a couple you know are gonna get plenty of ice time.

 

[granddaddyscout]

Re: D-I Outlook for 2011-2012: Offseason Musings and Beyond

I just have a question regarding how ridiculously loaded UND is going to be next year. How is it possible that they are only graduating one senior but have a 9/10 person recruiting class coming in? Aren't there limitations on roster size/scholarships? They look like they're going to have 30+ on the roster and should be able to go 4 lines deep. Scary.

I believe the NCAA limits each school to 18, not all athletic departments fund that many, I am sure ND does. I am not aware of any limits on roster size, UW had 26 at the beginning of the year. They also picked up at least one extra scholarship with #15 via soccer maybe two.

I am not sure that I would agree that ND will be "ridiculously loaded" next year, I just think the Lams will have enough around them to move up to around the 4-5 spot. That is based on a much weaker UDM team though. If UDM pulls a rabbit out of the hat, ND will suffer. Either way I don't think they will be on par with UW and UM in the WCHA, just better able to compete.

 

[OnMAA]

Re: D-I Outlook for 2011-2012: Offseason Musings and Beyond

I think it's amazing that no one even mentions UNH...after being the perrenial power in the East for years, with one awful year, they are off everyone's radar.....promise me that you all will keep it that way, okay? Who doesn't enjoy being the underdog...

Yup, memories are short. It is good to look at teams who just had a poor year for them. Remember last year around this time, or even at pre-season time most had Wisco at number 5 at best after one off season (for them anyways). I said at the time top two for sure, and time proved that to be a good assesment. Not sure about UNH for next year. They fell down pretty hard from the top of the HE to almost the bottom. That is a long way to climb back up. Do agree with you that they will rebound next year, but top 10 in the nation, not so sure.

 

[OnMAA]

Re: D-I Outlook for 2011-2012: Offseason Musings and Beyond

I believe the NCAA limits each school to 18, not all athletic departments fund that many, I am sure ND does. I am not aware of any limits on roster size, UW had 26 at the beginning of the year. They also picked up at least one extra scholarship with #15 via soccer maybe two.

I am not sure that I would agree that ND will be "ridiculously loaded" next year, I just think the Lams will have enough around them to move up to around the 4-5 spot. That is based on a much weaker UDM team though. If UDM pulls a rabbit out of the hat, ND will suffer. Either way I don't think they will be on par with UW and UM in the WCHA, just better able to compete.

IIRC the scholarship limit for womens hockey is 18.5. Many school will augment that with FA money and Academic money for those that are eligible for it. Not sure if there is a roster size limit, but there is a dressing size limit somewhere in the low 20's.

 

[Sean Pickett]

Re: D-I Outlook for 2011-2012: Offseason Musings and Beyond

My guess would be for severely limited ice time for a few on that roster...compared to what they had in 2010-2011 as a strong possibility. Probably including games spent in the stands and not dressed to play for some as well...at times. We'll see if all remain content with their circumstances I s'pose. There's a couple you know are gonna get plenty of ice time.

There is also the possibility that some of the players may be let go from the team. As Coach Durocher built the BU program he made the hard decision to let a few players go after each of the first several seasons. That allowed him to maintain a stable roster size as he added scholarship players the first several seasons.

Sean

 

[brookyone]

Re: D-I Outlook for 2011-2012: Offseason Musings and Beyond

North Dakota
Shelby Amsley-Benzie .............G .....................(Warroad) ..............................Warroad, MN
Andrea Dalen .........................F ....................(Linkopings) .....................Ringerike, Norway
Josefine Jakobsen ..................F .....................(Segeltorps) .................... Aalborg, Denmark
Leah Jensen ...........................F .................(E. Grand Forks) ................E. Grand Forks, MN
Layla Marvin ...........................F ...............(USA 18s/Warroad) ......................Warroad, MN
Klara Myren .......................... F ...........(Swedish National Team) ............Gustav's, Sweden
Ceclila Ostberg ...................... F ............(Swedish National Team) ............Leksand, Sweden

It may be a matter of personal perception, but I'd tend to characterize this as a pretty significant infusion / upgrade of talent...or at the very least, a strong potential to result in marked improvement, and support for the twins.

I didn't expect UND to take three out of four from Minnesota in 2010-2011. Minnesota is going to be a different team next season...by all accounts, should be a better team for sure, but I think the Sioux will be improved enough to still be a tough out. I don't want them to be more competitive with the Gophers than they were this past season. I thought UND got better goaltending last season than in previous years from both their juniors. That's going to be something they'll need again in 2011-2012 I think.

 

[brookyone]

Re: D-I Outlook for 2011-2012: Offseason Musings and Beyond

There is also the possibility that some of the players may be let go from the team.

Well, I was going to address that possibility. If I recall, Idalski did that when he arrived and replaced Rivard...so I don't think it couldn't happen by any means. I thought saying so could possibly upset UND fans...or give the impression I know something when I don't so...

 

[Sean Pickett]

Re: D-I Outlook for 2011-2012: Offseason Musings and Beyond

IIRC the scholarship limit for womens hockey is 18.5. Many school will augment that with FA money and Academic money for those that are eligible for it. Not sure if there is a roster size limit, but there is a dressing size limit somewhere in the low 20's.

From the <a href=http://www.ncaapublications.com/productdownloads/D111.pdf>2010-11 NCAA Divison I Manual</a>: "15.5.7 Ice Hockey Limitations. There shall be an annual limit of 18 on the value of financial aid awards (equivalencies) to counters and an annual limit of 30 on the total number of counters in ice hockey at each institution. (Adopted: 1/16/93 effective 8/1/93)."

I had a conversation that covered scholarships offered by HE teams at the FF with a HE head coach. It was mentioned to me that BC will finally have 18 scholarships available this up coming season, leaving only Providence (with 14, I believe) below the limit.

Sean

 

[Sean Pickett]

Re: D-I Outlook for 2011-2012: Offseason Musings and Beyond

I don't want them to be more competitive with the Gophers than they were this past season.

But I thought all WCHA fans wanted the other five to do better against the Big Three to show that the WCHA has the best 8 teams?

Sean

 

[brookyone]

Re: D-I Outlook for 2011-2012: Offseason Musings and Beyond

But I thought all WCHA fans wanted the other five to do better against the Big Three to show that the WCHA has the best 8 teams?

Sean

Just because UND or BSU as examples...may lose to the Big Three doesn't mean they aren't better than their HE, CHA or ECAC counterparts.

 

[zoofer]

Re: D-I Outlook for 2011-2012: Offseason Musings and Beyond

Yes OnMAA, I agree that top 10 would be a big jump but then again UNH men were picked 4th in HE this year! Personnally I'm not sure if BC and BU will be as strong on the ice as everyone else believes..... someone noted that in losing Schaus and Stack, that BC loses a great deal, and I agree; as for BU, I believe that in losing their seniors, they're losing great leadership and character, which will be tough to replace.....Providi has LaCasse and Northeastern has Snelling so for me they start out ahead of the pack....if UNH can find some scoring combo's , they will get home ice for HE....Minton can be stellar and hopefully the new goalie will push her hard......