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COVID-19 - Part 2

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A national shutdown for ~10 weeks while we ramp up testing capacity and production of PPE and ventilators is likely necessary, and waiting is not an option.

Mills shutdown might be inadequate but it is absolutely warranted for anyone that understands basic math.
That brings us out to the second week in May. To be fair Trump said Aril 12. What's another few weeks?
 
That brings us out to the second week in May. To be fair Trump said Aril 12. What's another few weeks?

We won’t be out of the woods in 10 weeks but hopefully in a position to identify and isolate better, and more prepared to treat. We could easily have 10s of millions of infected by then too
 
Re: COVID-19 - Part 2

The President must realize that we are not going to "win" or "defeat" the virus anymore than we are going to defeat the cold or flu. You can't stop it, you can only hope to contain it. This evening the President walked back the opening and walked up nationalism. His Dr. Birx introduction, saying she was the top expert, was a shot at Dr. Fauci. Dr. Birx took it to a new level today. Always classy and well put together, she had a fully accessorized wardrobe change between the town hall and the briefing. Kudlow was pointless until he said that 1/3 of the bailout is for direct assistance and 2/3 is to increase the Federal Reserve's lending power/replenish the treasury. How had I not heard that before? Why did Apple have nine million N 95 masks? Nine million??? Pence said "weeks not months", did not say days. Thinking back on it, this may have been the first briefing sans prop for him. They kept it brief, the media strategy going forward may be FoxNews serving up relative softballs in a non-confrontational environment in the afternoon, fewer media questions at the briefings.

We should stop all air travel > April 12 minimum.
 
The President must realize that we are not going to "win" or "defeat" the virus anymore than we are going to defeat the cold or flu. You can't stop it, you can only hope to contain it. This evening the President walked back the opening and walked up nationalism. His Dr. Birx introduction, saying she was the top expert, was a shot at Dr. Fauci. Dr. Birx took it to a new level today. Always classy and well put together, she had a fully accessorized wardrobe change between the town hall and the briefing. Kudlow was pointless until he said that 1/3 of the bailout is for direct assistance and 2/3 is to increase the Federal Reserve's lending power/replenish the treasury. How had I not heard that before? Why did Apple have nine million N 95 masks? Nine million??? Pence said "weeks not months", did not say days. Thinking back on it, this may have been the first briefing sans prop for him. They kept it brief, the media strategy going forward may be FoxNews serving up relative softballs in a non-confrontational environment in the afternoon, fewer media questions at the briefings.

We should stop all air travel > April 12 minimum.

How nice...keep it just the few of them..no real questions. No matter thank God there are other and better sources of info out there. Thinking of the FDNY EMT on a ventilator tonight. A 36 year old Principal from the Broynx died today. Be well...
 
Re: COVID-19 - Part 2

When I posted a blog article at 1:40 this afternoon, the death toll was 600 in the US and 18,227 worldwide. Now, 9 hours later, the US death toll is 783 and the worldwide death toll is 18,882. (Source: Johns Hopkins University)
 
Re: COVID-19 - Part 2

Coronavirus: US man dies after taking drug he thought stopped virus:
https://www.bbc.com/news/52012242

... had used chloroquine previously as a treatment for their koi fish and still had some remaining in their home. This additive is formulated differently than the drug used to treat malaria...

He ended up ingesting chloroquine phosphate, in this instance being used as an aquarium cleaner.

Nothing that would ever have been prescribed for COVID-19. A sad and desperate (but dumb) mistake.

Hydroxychloroquine is the anti-malaria substance being tested in some cases to treat COVID-19.

Just catching up on the day's posts - not picking on you at random, Darius. :)
 
Re: COVID-19 - Part 2

This is how a true leader under stress should speak to his public during a crisis like this. The numbers quoted by Gov. Cuomo are startling. I don't think he is being alarmist, he is working off of facts provided by epidemiologists and other experts that are more experienced than him in dealing with this crisis. He is begging the Feds for ventilators needed for his state with 25,000 cases. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LZgDSYXZe90
 
Re: COVID-19 - Part 2

Lives will hang in the balance if the economy tanks Ref. It's not about the almighty dollar. It's about paying your bills and putting food on the table. It's a balancing act now. We can't throw the baby out with the bathwater. The ramifications of a Great Depression like meltdown would probably increase the risk of future pandemics worse than what we are dealing with now.

I think we should be selective. Hotspots should not just be social distancing but stay in lockdown per individual state mandates. What's good for South Dakota is probably not good for New York or Washington state. We should continue to be surgical with preventions and mandates and not do a countrywide shutdown. IMO that would be a disaster.

Agree with both of these. Again, not to be repetitive, but tanking the economy would make the "cure" worse than the disease itself. Huge swaths (sp?) of the economy - especially small business - would disappear if/when the re-opening is delayed for too long for arbitrary reasons. Increased unemployment, long term unemployment, reversals of the progress many have made with the previous lagging epidemic of substance abuse, resulting relapses, depression, etc. ad nauseum, some leading to deteriorating health and eventual death, plus others going the suicide route … the numbers you'll never read on CDC or Johns Hopkins sites will be the casualties that happen because of these potential indirect causes of too drastic (draconian) steps to be "too safe". But in the end. those people would be (dead) victims, no different to the unfortunate COVID-19 victims. It's a huge balancing act.
 
Re: COVID-19 - Part 2

Ps..Dan Patrick of Texas thinks older people would gladly sacrifice themselves for the economy? Wtaf..

The TX lieutenant governor was speaking for himself, and many older constituents he's spoken with. I'm not his constituent, but my feelings are similar, as I've said on here several times before. Amazing just to see what he's said completely exaggerated and bent out of context. Best to view the source itself. Here's a link to exactly what Lt. Gov. Patrick said to Tucker Carlson on Monday night:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fIz4y7ni_Go

For what it's worth, the US fatalities per diagnosed case ratio is trending down closer to 1%, or pretty much in line with the much vaunted South Korean rate.
 
Re: COVID-19 - Part 2

The TX lieutenant governor was speaking for himself, and many older constituents he's spoken with. I'm not his constituent, but my feelings are similar, as I've said on here several times before. Amazing just to see what he's said completely exaggerated and bent out of context. Best to view the source itself. Here's a link to exactly what Lt. Gov. Patrick said to Tucker Carlson on Monday night:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fIz4y7ni_Go

For what it's worth, the US fatalities per diagnosed case ratio is trending down closer to 1%, or pretty much in line with the much vaunted South Korean rate.

For a seemingly educated individual, the only thing I see in my mind when you bloviate is Martin Short playing the cigarette lawyer on SOL. Lie, lie, lie. Deny, deny, deny. Quote the interview. "You're basically saying that this disease could take your life, but that's not the scariest thing to you," replied Fox News host Tucker Carlson. "There's something that would be worse than dying."

"Yeah," said Patrick."
 
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Re: COVID-19 - Part 2

He ended up ingesting chloroquine phosphate, in this instance being used as an aquarium cleaner.

Nothing that would ever have been prescribed for COVID-19. A sad and desperate (but dumb) mistake.

Hydroxychloroquine is the anti-malaria substance being tested in some cases to treat COVID-19.

Just catching up on the day's posts - not picking on you at random, Darius. :)

Greetings Chuck! You're right on here. I would add too that the administration and titration of hydroxlchloroquine (HCQ) to CoV-19 patients should be monitored under physician's care. It should not be self-administered at this time until more data is gathered. RCTs are now being conducted in NY as of Tuesday, and in other locations throughout the country.

Dave Boulware in the Division of Infectious Diseases at my university is currently leading a collaborative RCT team consisting of infectious disease faculty physicians, biostatisticians, pharmacologists and U of M students.

According to VP Pence, massive supplies of HCQ are being shipped to the US from overseas and pharma companies like Bayer are now producing large quantities of HCQ which will offset the demand by patients with autoimmune diseases such as lupus or rheumatoid arthritis.

Yesterday, the FDA approved "off label" use of HCQ while more data collection continues to emerge from RCTs now being conducted in various parts of the world.

Vice President Mike Pence said Tuesday that “the FDA [Food and Drug Administration] is approving off-label use for the anti-malarial drug hydroxychloroquine right now" to help coronavirus patients. Doctors can now prescribe chloroquine for that off-label purpose of dealing with the symptoms of coronavirus. We are making that clear across the country."
 
Re: COVID-19 - Part 2

For a seemingly educated individual, the only thing I see in my mind when you bloviate is Martin Short playing the cigarette lawyer on SOL. Lie, lie, lie. Deny, deny, deny. Quote the interview. "You're basically saying that this disease could take your life, but that's not the scariest thing to you," replied Fox News host Tucker Carlson. "There's something that would be worse than dying."

"Yeah," said Patrick."

Serious question - how old are you? Do you have children? Do you have grandchildren?

Who are you to question the sincerity of the man, a 70 year old man who's apparently lived a very fulfilling life, and someone who wants the best for his kids and grandkids? If he thinks the aftermath of this situation is going to make the lives of his children and his grandchildren something short of the full American experience … and he is willing (like I am, at age 58) to "take our chances" and try to keep the country running at as close to normal as possible … who are you to question his (or my) sincerity?

Personally, I've enjoyed a great life, and like Patrick, I hope it will continue for a few more years. But if sitting on the sidelines and emerging in a welfare state existence for another 20 years of mere existence is one option, and fighting right now to keep our country afloat and at a better long-term quality of life is the other option - at some risk to my personal health - I'm all for Door Number Two. Maybe you're a Door Number One safety-first, low-risk person? Nothing wrong with that - to each their own.

But don't tell me (or Patrick, or other like-minded folks) that we're insincere or disingenuous. We clearly view our lives differently from how you view yours. And without stepping squarely on the USCHO "third rail" … some of us believe there is something after this life on Earth is over, and we're more at peace with our inevitable mortality as a result. I have no idea how you feel about that in your life, and it's not up to me to judge. A little tolerance - with lots of hearty and open good-faith debate - works much better.
 
Re: COVID-19 - Part 2

Greetings Chuck! You're right on here. I would add too that the administration and titration of hydroxlchloroquine (HCQ) to CoV-19 patients should be monitored under physician's care. It should not be self-administered at this time until more data is gathered. RCTs are now being conducted in NY as of Tuesday, and in other locations throughout the country.

Dave Boulware in the Division of Infectious Diseases at my university is currently leading a collaborative RCT team consisting of infectious disease faculty physicians, biostatisticians, pharmacologists and U of M students.

According to VP Pence, massive supplies of HCQ are being shipped to the US from overseas and pharma companies like Bayer are now producing large quantities of HCQ which will offset the demand by patients with autoimmune diseases such as lupus or rheumatoid arthritis.

Yesterday, the FDA approved "off label" use of HCQ while more data collection continues to emerge from RCTs now being conducted in various parts of the world.

Promising stuff, Steve. Thanks for continuing to contribute to the quality discussion on this thread. :)
 
I think we should be selective. Hotspots should not just be social distancing but stay in lockdown per individual state mandates. What's good for South Dakota is probably not good for New York or Washington state. We should continue to be surgical with preventions and mandates and not do a countrywide shutdown. IMO that would be a disaster.

Hotspots will move because the virus knows no boundaries. People in the midwest will leave larger towns for their lake cabins, which will over-saturate rural areas that normally only see their populations grow temporarily on summer weekends. This will tax their capacity for goods, services and when the virus spreads hospital capacity.

I live near a resort town north of a Manila. When Manila received harsh lockdown rules, suddenly every hotel, b&b and motel was at capacity. A great short term financial boost, but again when the virus starts spreading there?

Trump has either been wrong or deceitful every step of the way through this, and I don't trust for one second he has the smarts, leadership or wherewithal to get us out of it without significant intervention from others.

For instance I trust this guy:
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">"It’s very tough to say to people, ‘Hey, keep going to restaurants, go buy new houses, ignore that pile of bodies over in the corner. We want you to keep spending because there’s maybe a politician who thinks GDP growth is what really counts,'" Gates said. <a href="https://t.co/JY6kUEIkYR">https://t.co/JY6kUEIkYR</a></p>— The Hill (@thehill) <a href="https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1242589535940349952?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 24, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Projected date of surpassing hospital bed capacity, by state, based upon different levels of action/inaction for containment. Pretty sobering.
 
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Serious question - how old are you? Do you have children? Do you have grandchildren?

Who are you to question the sincerity of the man, a 70 year old man who's apparently lived a very fulfilling life, and someone who wants the best for his kids and grandkids? If he thinks the aftermath of this situation is going to make the lives of his children and his grandchildren something short of the full American experience … and he is willing (like I am, at age 58) to "take our chances" and try to keep the country running at as close to normal as possible … who are you to question his (or my) sincerity?

Personally, I've enjoyed a great life, and like Patrick, I hope it will continue for a few more years. But if sitting on the sidelines and emerging in a welfare state existence for another 20 years of mere existence is one option, and fighting right now to keep our country afloat and at a better long-term quality of life is the other option - at some risk to my personal health - I'm all for Door Number Two. Maybe you're a Door Number One safety-first, low-risk person? Nothing wrong with that - to each their own.

But don't tell me (or Patrick, or other like-minded folks) that we're insincere or disingenuous. We clearly view our lives differently from how you view yours. And without stepping squarely on the USCHO "third rail" … some of us believe there is something after this life on Earth is over, and we're more at peace with our inevitable mortality as a result. I have no idea how you feel about that in your life, and it's not up to me to judge. A little tolerance - with lots of hearty and open good-faith debate - works much better.
I am a 60 year old who has lead a very fulfilled life and am self distancing from my children who are NYC commuters. I am a thankfully retired Fire Chief after 32 years. Grandkids are not on the table yet. Unfortunately, I think we live in different worlds both risk wise and politically. I presume you are from New Hampshire and it is not comparable to the NYC area in terms of risk right now. I find that your political blinders and location have left you desensitized to how serious this situation has become. You have a Governor two States away begging the feds for respirators to assist his folks while others like yourself are saying that we should be pretty good in a couple of weeks. I do my best to go about my business down here and to make sure my loved ones are safe. I just find that folks like the LG in Texas and yourself really need to understand that this is a very serious life and death situation and not some political game of chicken. Unless Cuomo declares, I don’t think you have to worry about Trump being re-elected. As things worsen down here I will step aside from this debate and concentrate on what matters most to me. Stay safe.
 
Re: COVID-19 - Part 2

Trumpettes consider it the cost of doing business. What’s a few dead grannies when we can have our economic stability is their thinking. Let’s kill them off now so we can have our normal life back they say. The cure is worse then the disease. Really? That is sick. Freakin sick.
Ironically if they hadn’t had their heads up their rear ends at the beginning, like their dear leader, we would have a much better handle on who and where this virus is and what areas need a shut down. But Fox News says......

The freak Lt gov from Texas should just get it over with if he wants to meet his maker.......and after another sick Twitter from el dumbo in chief regarding Romney’s negative test, take the orangutan with you. Though, the orange man child’s heaven is not one I want to end up in.
 
The TX lieutenant governor was speaking for himself, and many older constituents he's spoken with. I'm not his constituent, but my feelings are similar, as I've said on here several times before. Amazing just to see what he's said completely exaggerated and bent out of context. Best to view the source itself. Here's a link to exactly what Lt. Gov. Patrick said to Tucker Carlson on Monday night:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fIz4y7ni_Go

For what it's worth, the US fatalities per diagnosed case ratio is trending down closer to 1%, or pretty much in line with the much vaunted South Korean rate.

Whatever. I have heard his comments. If older people feel like they are ok with putting their lives at risk so that the economy survives...knock yourselves right out. I for one..want to live.
 
Re: COVID-19 - Part 2

He ended up ingesting chloroquine phosphate, in this instance being used as an aquarium cleaner.
Understood. He was a moron. Now he is a dead moron. How many moron's are there in the US? Testing is just beginning so the number is expected to rise exponentially.

Some governments (glyphosate, internet privacy) still protect their citizens as ours (DDT, clean water, clean air) once did. The idea is that individuals can't be expected to research and understand everything that might harm them or society.
 
Re: COVID-19 - Part 2

I am a 60 year old who has lead a very fulfilled life and am self distancing from my children who are NYC commuters. I am a thankfully retired Fire Chief after 32 years. Grandkids are not on the table yet. Unfortunately, I think we live in different worlds both risk wise and politically. I presume you are from New Hampshire and it is not comparable to the NYC area in terms of risk right now. I find that your political blinders and location have left you desensitized to how serious this situation has become. You have a Governor two States away begging the feds for respirators to assist his folks while others like yourself are saying that we should be pretty good in a couple of weeks. I do my best to go about my business down here and to make sure my loved ones are safe. I just find that folks like the LG in Texas and yourself really need to understand that this is a very serious life and death situation and not some political game of chicken. Unless Cuomo declares, I don’t think you have to worry about Trump being re-elected. As things worsen down here I will step aside from this debate and concentrate on what matters most to me. Stay safe.

OK fair answer, although you're still making some assumptions in there. I have several co-workers and friends who live within a 20 mile radius of Manhattan, and one of them tells me they're literally living in the original containment area in New Rochelle. I can't speak for LG Patrick's connections in the area, but I can assure you I understand something pretty grave is going on in and around NYC. I've mentioned it a few times on this thread (or its predecessor). No one is discounting the gravity of that situation.

Of course you are correct, up here in NH it is very different than it is now in NYC. You could fill in virtually every location in the US in place of "NH" in that last sentence, and it would still hold true. Does that mean every last nook and cranny of the country has to take identical measures as the folks in NYC/NJ/Gold Coast CT, or in Washington State, or parts of California? Respectfully, after the current 15 day period lapses, I think that discussion comes to the forefront. Some of is have been anticipating it on the previous thread, and frankly it's why I was hoping we could continue this into Part 2 (and thanks to all for coming along - regardless if we agree or disagree).

Where we are in NH is maybe 40-45 minutes away from Manchester, and about an hour from Boston. It's very rural, but we're hardly a long way from urban centers. We're (unfortunately) quite familiar with extended periods of inconvenience and stress, as several severe ice storms that swept through our area about a decade or so - give or take - left us "off the grid" for periods up to several weeks. (side note - that's mysteriously changed in Effingwoods, since we now have the Governor and a US Senator living fairly close by … but that's another story). I'm not comparing the impact of those situations to the current situation in NYC. The difference in scale is as obvious as it can be. But as far as isolation and desperation are concerned … been there, done that a few times, and it's not a lot of fun. And we're not of the means to have a lake home, beach home or ski chalet. So yeah, I get it.

I'll wrap up with a brief mention of the public sector v. private sector observation I've made on here and elsewhere previously. Using your word, I suspect some (many?) in the public sector are "desensitized" to the severity of the situation for folks who are (especially) in the small business portion of the private sector. We have two adult children, one in each camp. Our teacher has been relatively unaffected, other than to switch from classroom settings to virtual education. That job is not threatened, career should be fully intact (already tenured at HS level), and future looks the same now as it did a month ago. Our other is hustling 24/7 to keep a thriving small business afloat, as are countless millions of similar folks across the US. Those are two very different lives right now, and we (Mom and Dad) are seeing it up close and personal. Their parents are more concerned about what's going on with the latter. It's not that we're picking favorites. It's a simple recognition that situations can be very different. That's all.

I'll check in later, but for now … it's time to make the donuts … :)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=petqFm94osQ
 
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