dxmnkd316
Lucia Apologist
Re: Covfefe-19: We're all getting $5/hour more in hazard pay!
That's an interesting story. I used to be good at math like that, but I've let my brain become fat and lazy so I would probably play the Program Manager in your story. I've created a general backstop for what happens when someone tells me something at work that I disagree with:
1. Do I understand what they are saying?
2. If yes, can I refute it?
3. If no to either 1 or 2, take their word until someone smarter than both of us can disprove it.
4. There's also the, "Is this person smarter than me?", if yes, buy into what they're saying. This saves a lot of time.
Ha. I came across that one (but just now learned its name) back in the 90s. We were bidding on building an aircraft system, and were required to provide a “maintenance cost” guarantee on a per operator basis. Our Program Manager did a basic expected value calculation (how often each part breaks x cost to fix each part) and was ready to offer that up as our guarantee. I literally had to yell, “stop!” to get him to listen. The problem was that most operators were only going to have between 1 and 5 airplanes, so there were going to be hundreds of tiny fleets. Using the expected value (which would have been okay for a single large fleet of 1000 airplanes) would have been a financial disaster for our company to guarantee to all of those small fleets. I had to do a ton of Monte Carlo simulations to convince him.
Sorry - back to your regularly scheduled Trump bashing.
That's an interesting story. I used to be good at math like that, but I've let my brain become fat and lazy so I would probably play the Program Manager in your story. I've created a general backstop for what happens when someone tells me something at work that I disagree with:
1. Do I understand what they are saying?
2. If yes, can I refute it?
3. If no to either 1 or 2, take their word until someone smarter than both of us can disprove it.
4. There's also the, "Is this person smarter than me?", if yes, buy into what they're saying. This saves a lot of time.