Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

[alfablue]

Re: Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

And that means 2 million Americans dead. Trump is just bored now with Corona, and wants to get back to fellating Wall St. and holding his rallies.

Lots of dead people don't even enter the equation. Duncan Black said on his blog today, if Trump could just snap his fingers and immediately have things back to normal, with ten million people dead, he'd do that in a heartbeat.

Right now, we will crash through WWI (116k) by the end of May, and the 90k projected for June will put us halfway to WWII. In a very short time in the US.

And lest we ever forget, looking at South Korea, a gross majority of these deaths were preventable. And I can't really fathom what would happen if dumpy got his way all along- the odds of us passing the sum of all war deaths within one year would be possible (1.3M).

But that's ALL war related deaths- not sure how accurate the WIKI page is for US military deaths- if it is, we are currently ahead of WWI US combat deaths (63k). And WWII US combat deaths (291K) will be coming. But be clear- COVID19, in it's very short time frame, is now top 4 of war deaths, and will surely be top 3 by June.

Crazy.

Why in the world did people make this so political and greedy? Who's making all of the money on masks and respirators that are being held up? Why can't we find out what happens to sized shipments of supplies that were paid for????

 

[jflory81]

Re: Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

Right now, we will crash through WWI (116k) by the end of May, and the 90k projected for June will put us halfway to WWII. In a very short time in the US.

We are actually slowing down a bit right now, and that's likely to continue for a week or so, and the re-opening surge won't start to show up in deaths for at least a couple of weeks. At the current trailing 7-day average - used to take out the days of the week effect from reporting - we'd end up almost exactly on the 116K number for WW1 at the end of the month, and like I said I think the trailing average will actually continue to drop for a bit.

I'd actually be a little surprised if we passed 116K by the end of May. I'd guess we'll be between 100K - 116K entering June. I think the big question is how big the spike from the morons will be, and that will really only begin to show up in the last part of May and have a huge effect on June.

The 7 day trailing average peaked at 2207 on April 21st and has been on a pretty consistent, slow decline since then.

 

[leswp1]

Re: Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

At this point does anyone see an end game in the US other than herd immunity? I think the only variables are how many people die and how long it takes. The horse has left the barn.

Except they are not sure that this is going to happen- the conveyed immunity is not a sure deal, they are not sure how long you may continue to have antibodies. The biggest variable still is where you live and the medical system available. Just like it was at the start of this thing, threads ago.

 

[WeAreNDHockey]

Re: Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

Why in the world did people make this so political and greedy? Who's making all of the money on masks and respirators that are being held up? Why can't we find out what happens to sized shipments of supplies that were paid for????

The both sides are bad people will surely rake me over the coals for saying it, but the right has been making most things political now for at least since Clinton was president. The trumpers just turned that up to eleven. In some instances, it's been going on for even longer than Clinton's first term, as the NRA and gun control make perfectly clear. The well has been so poisoned that something like a virus is political, and you can predict with near 100% accuracy someone's beliefs about the coronavirus based on nothing more than who they voted for in the 2016 presidential election. Make no mistake, plenty of idiots voted for Hillary (I did). But at least that flavor of idiot knows what they don't know, and leaves things like what we need to do in the face of a pandemic to the doctors and other health care professionals and to the researchers who spend a lifetime studying these things.

 

[WeAreNDHockey]

Re: Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

It was bound to happen. 3 charged with murder of Family Dollar security guard over face mask dispute

 

[walrus]

Re: Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

. For the life of me I can't understand why masks/face coverings haven't been mandatory for a couple months now as well.

No political will. Americans freak out about a few weeks of stay at home, which really wasn't staying at home.

 

[alfablue]

Re: Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

We are actually slowing down a bit right now, and that's likely to continue for a week or so, and the re-opening surge won't start to show up in deaths for at least a couple of weeks. At the current trailing 7-day average - used to take out the days of the week effect from reporting - we'd end up almost exactly on the 116K number for WW1 at the end of the month, and like I said I think the trailing average will actually continue to drop for a bit.

I'd actually be a little surprised if we passed 116K by the end of May. I'd guess we'll be between 100K - 116K entering June. I think the big question is how big the spike from the morons will be, and that will really only begin to show up in the last part of May and have a huge effect on June.

The 7 day trailing average peaked at 2207 on April 21st and has been on a pretty consistent, slow decline since then.

Except that the CDC has predicted 3k/day in June. We will see. It would be nice if you were right, but the hot spots are moving from NY and MI to other places- places who think this is a hoax and have not done anything, in spite of people getting sick and plants being forced to close. And then there's Florida.

IMHO, the only reason that the reported deaths per day goes down in the next month is because of lack of reporting. They will be called pneumonia- a sudden and surprising output of it. I have zero faith in our federal government- their motives are totally economic.

 

[FadeToBlack&Gold]

Re: Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

I think we should have a lot stricter lock down, but it doesn't seem likely. For the life of me I can't understand why masks/face coverings haven't been mandatory for a couple months now as well.

You try enforcing it. You oughta know how hard that would be, after all your people are the ones running around with assault rifles, threatening lawmakers because they can't get a haircut or buy seeds for all that gardening they do every year.

 

[jflory81]

Re: Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

Except that the CDC has predicted 3k/day in June. We will see. It would be nice if you were right, but the hot spots are moving from NY and MI to other places- places who think this is a hoax and have not done anything, in spite of people getting sick and plants being forced to close. And then there's Florida.

IMHO, the only reason that the reported deaths per day goes down in the next month is because of lack of reporting. They will be called pneumonia- a sudden and surprising output of it. I have zero faith in our federal government- their motives are totally economic.

Oh, June could be a disaster. I don't think 3K/day is out of the question there (although the IHME model definitely does not agree with it - it has the beginning of June at 800/day and the end at 300/day with a steady decline....TL;DR I still think the IHME model is complete garbage and they need someone who actually knows what they're doing w/ regard to data analysis to interpret past data). We're just going to have a little lull here in early May (which will probably contribute to certain morons being overconfident and re-opening some more) before the effects of those actions become apparent. Deaths are on something like a 3 week lag from actions.

We should also point out that deaths in a pandemic are always adjusted upwards after the fact. You just can't count everybody in the moment. When they do excess deaths analysis at the end of the whole thing, I fully expect deaths to at least double. In that respect even the new IHME model is almost definitely underestimating where we are even today, even with their false 2nd peak they say happened that has no actual evidence of occurring in the actual data (if you use 7-day trailing averages to take the day of the week effect out of the data)

 

[alfablue]

Re: Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

Oh, June could be a disaster. I don't think 3K/day is out of the question there. We're just going to have a little lull here in early May (which will probably contribute to certain morons being overconfident and re-opening some more) before the effects of those actions become apparent. Deaths are on something like a 3 week lag from actions.

We should also point out that deaths in a pandemic are always adjusted upwards after the fact. You just can't count everybody in the moment. When they do excess deaths analysis at the end of the whole thing, I fully expect deaths to at least double. In that respect even the new IHME model is almost definitely underestimating where we are even today.

If the current low part just averages 2k/day, that's 60k this month. And if there's any decent expectation of 3k/day in June, the last half of the month will be above 2.5k.

BTW, the idea that covid is being under counted can be seen in the pneumonia deaths. Normally, it appears that just under 60k/year die from influenza AND pneumonia. Note the AND. And in the very short time that there's reporting of covid, JUST pneumonia is at 66k. So Feb 1 to May 1- 3 months, there are 66k pneumonia deaths when normally there's less than 60k of pneumonia PLUS influenza per year.

So right now, pneumonia is 3-6X what it normally is. No way those are not COVID related, since that's the only new thing this year.

 

[jflory81]

Re: Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

If the current low part just averages 2k/day, that's 60k this month. And if there's any decent expectation of 3k/day in June, the last half of the month will be above 2.5k.

BTW, the idea that covid is being under counted can be seen in the pneumonia deaths. Normally, it appears that just under 60k/year die from influenza AND pneumonia. Note the AND. And in the very short time that there's reporting of covid, JUST pneumonia is at 66k. So Feb 1 to May 1- 3 months, there are 66k pneumonia deaths when normally there's less than 60k of pneumonia PLUS influenza per year.

So right now, pneumonia is 3-4X what it normally is. No way those are not COVID related, since that's the only new thing this year.

We're not averaging 2K a day right now though. We're averaging ~1820 on the trailing average, and that will likely keep sinking for a week or two. Then it will take a bit to even get back up to previous levels (if they ever do. The IHME model claims they won't).

And yes, I totally agree that the official count is undercounting. Although I dunno how much of it is in the flu deaths. There was talk about this year's flu strain being exceptionally bad before COVID really got here, and if those actually were COVID cases, the case load would have exploded exponentially the way it did in the NYC metro area and Washington. We have, after all, hit 60K deaths from just the flu in a year as recently as 2017-18. And most flu deaths do occur in the first half of the year. Peak flu season generally runs from December - March. I'm trying to find death counts by month for previous flu seasons to see how clumped they are in those months.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

We're not averaging 2K a day right now though. We're averaging ~1820 on the trailing average, and that will likely keep sinking for a week or two.

Maybe. It's a complex function as it's the sum of many, many localities who are each on different places on the curve. Even if they were lock step in precautions the aggregate could keep on jumping around for a while. We are probably on the ascending side of the curve in most of them even with precautions because the disease takes time to permeate all places.

I would expect some stochastic shaking for a while and then a slow but long and lethal ascent once the re-openings start killing people.

It's entirely possible that if we do this right and let the covidiots take the hit they are begging for we will actually get meaningful electoral relief this Fall. The same warriors who want to pew pew the commie virus are the ones who get more vote excitedly for Dump et al. And they're the ones whose crazy train ends at the morgue. I could see their numbers drop by 100-200 thousand by November 3. That could flip some close states.

So by all means, Dumpies, exercise your freedumb!

 

[jflory81]

Re: Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

Maybe. It's a complex function as it's the sum of many, many localities who are each on different places on the curve. Even if they were lock step in precautions the aggregate could keep on jumping around for a while. We are probably on the ascending side of the curve in most of them even with precautions because the disease takes time to permeate all places.

I would expect some stochastic shaking for a while and then a slow but long and lethal ascent once the re-openings start killing people.

I think it's really underreported/underknown how long we've been in a slow but steady descent on the 7 day trailing average. The ups and downs from the day of the week reporting effect (which is significant) hides it somewhat, but it really has been on a remarkably steady down slope since April 21st, when it peaked at 2207. We've had 3 days out of the 14 since then where it did rise on a day to day basis, but in every case, it dropped lower than the original pre-rise value the next day. The 7-day trailing average actually makes a pretty convincing case that we are on a slow decline at the moment.

Obviously that can change if more hot spots spring up and other states rises overtakes the decline we're seeing in the NY metro area, but that definitively has not shown up in the data yet, and I'm not sure there's reason to believe it will until the effects of the social distancing relaxation start to be seen in 2-3 weeks. I could see it plateauing again as the descent from the NY metro area slows, but I'm not sure the circumstances in mid-late April (which corresponds to deaths now and for the next week or so) are any different from what they were in early April. I honestly wouldn't expect to see a ramp up again until late in the month.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

I think it's really underreported/underknown how long we've been in a slow but steady descent on the 7 day trailing average. The ups and downs from the day of the week reporting effect (which is significant) hides it somewhat, but it really has been on a remarkably steady down slope since April 21st, when it peaked at 2207. We've had 3 days out of the 14 since then where it did rise on a day to day basis, but in every case, it dropped lower than the original pre-rise value the next day. The 7-day trailing average actually makes a pretty convincing case that we are on a slow decline at the moment.

Obviously that can change if more hot spots spring up and other states rises overtakes the decline we're seeing in the NY metro area, but that definitively has not shown up in the data yet, and I'm not sure there's reason to believe it will until the effects of the social distancing relaxation start to be seen in 2-3 weeks. I could see it plateauing again as the descent from the NY metro area slows, but I'm not sure the circumstances in mid-late April (which corresponds to deaths now and for the next week or so) are any different from what they were in early April. I honestly wouldn't expect to see a ramp up again until late in the month.

If we're guessing I think it's moving out into the sticks where they wouldn't recognize it if it gave out engraved greeting cards.

It's not an accident that the huge numbers are being thrown up among the highest concentration of great doctors and first class medical care in the country. Every apartment has cockroaches; in NYC the light got switched on.

By the end of this the states are going to rank order in deaths per capita by their rank order in percentage living in highest density conditions. It's not magic.

 

[rufus]

Re: Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

The only reason its falling is because NY is falling. You exclude them, and the rest of the country is rising. Not a lot, but still.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

The only reason its falling is because NY is falling. You exclude them, and the rest of the country is rising. Not a lot, but still.

Yes, the chart below illustrates that. And if you take out NJ and CT (in other words, NY) then the rise is a lot. It looks exactly like the first stage 45 degree angle when it's just revving up.

And these morons are about to let it loose in the red states. Well. Good.

 

[burd]

Re: Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

Except they are not sure that this is going to happen- the conveyed immunity is not a sure deal, they are not sure how long you may continue to have antibodies. The biggest variable still is where you live and the medical system available. Just like it was at the start of this thing, threads ago.

And this is target moves through mutation. I don't know how much that factor applies specific to Covid, but it sounds like that is a major concern.

 

[Deutsche Gopher Fan]

Re: Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Pubs in Ireland are closed until at least August 10. <br>Pubs. <br>In Ireland. <br><br>But by all means let’s open Cracker Barrel right now.</p>— Marc Murphy (@MurphyCartoons) <a href="https://twitter.com/MurphyCartoons/status/1257283644571488256?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 4, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[Deutsche Gopher Fan]

Yes, the chart below illustrates that. And if you take out NJ and CT (in other words, NY) then the rise is a lot. It looks exactly like the first stage 45 degree angle when it's just revving up.

And these morons are about to let it loose in the red states. Well. Good.

Just wait til people under 50 start dying of strokes with no prior symptoms. That’s one of the scariest things I’ve heard in this whole ordeal.

 

[MinnesotaNorthStar]

Re: Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Pubs in Ireland are closed until at least August 10. <br>Pubs. <br>In Ireland. <br><br>But by all means let’s open Cracker Barrel right now.</p>— Marc Murphy (@MurphyCartoons) <a href="https://twitter.com/MurphyCartoons/status/1257283644571488256?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 4, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Obviously just fear-mongering...