Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

[Kepler]

Re: Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

Not going to admit, some groups of posters run together for me. For example, there "short names all lowercase" of burd/rufus/walrus I forget who is who. And I don't mean that as a bad thing, it means none of them have been jerks or said something so ridiculous that it stands out.

I conflated Scooby and Slap Shot for a decade. It was really confusing. I realize they're completely different now.

 

[French Rage]

Re: Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

I conflated Scooby and Slap Shot for a decade. It was really confusing. I realize they're completely different now.

For awhile I also did that with Handyman and Brenthoven, which is retrospect could not be any more wrong.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

For awhile I also did that with Handyman and Brenthoven, which is retrospect could not be any more wrong.

TBH I can see that.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

The Onion comes through.

 

[jflory81]

Re: Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

Is this the model from the WH? Or the UWashington model?

In any event, the WH model was cooked up by some official with no background in healthcare, statistics, epidemiology, or anything.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/34-days-of-pandemic-inside-trumps-desperate-attempts-to-reopen-america/ar-BB13wlAp

No, I was talking about the IHME model that the WH adopted as their official model early on when they projected 60K deaths. Birx and Fauci have both referenced it - more so in the past than recently, when it became clear it was overestimating how quickly the peak would recede.

The model's still up and still only projecting 72K deaths (59K - 115K confidence window) on the IHME site. They've missed badly on the 3 big western european countries too (Spain, Italy, and France)

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

EDIT: Apparently this model is about to get updated to ~135K deaths. So if it doesn't read 72,433 when you get to it, that's why.

 

[Drew S.]

Re: Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

At this point does anyone see an end game in the US other than herd immunity? I think the only variables are how many people die and how long it takes. The horse has left the barn.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

At this point does anyone see an end game in the US other than herd immunity? I think the only variables are how many people die and how long it takes. The horse has left the barn.

If you can survive it, you live. If you can't, you die. We're all going to get it.

 

[Slap Shot]

Re: Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

If you can survive it, you live. If you can't, you die. We're all going to get it.

I can't recall if I was watching or reading something very well done, but basically the argument was that 'herd immunity' in the way most people understand it vs. what it actually represents, is not only not feasible but certainly not even preferable. I need to try and track down the source.

 

[Handyman]

Re: Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

I was told we would all be fine because that one cruise ship only had a few cases...is that still the case?

 

[Wayuphere]

Re: Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

I don’t remember Walrus getting trumpy at all. But acs didn’t like the anti-trumpy postings as far as any of the Maine faithful involved. He appeared to be defending the NH trumpettes.... crickets now from them all. Sad part is for many years “they” were the most entertaining posters on here until this Trumpvirus mess arrived. Hopefully we get back to that(hockey talk) in the fall.

 

[Deutsche Gopher Fan]

I don’t remember Walrus getting trumpy at all. But acs didn’t like the anti-trumpy postings as far as any of the Maine faithful involved. He appeared to be defending the NH trumpettes.... crickets now from them all. Sad part is for many years “they” were the most entertaining posters on here until this Trumpvirus mess arrived. Hopefully we get back to that(hockey talk) in the fall.

They’re still ****ed about hydroxychloroquine not being the magic cure after they accused all of us who said “let’s wait” of wanting people to die

 

[FadeToBlack&Gold]

Re: Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

I was told we would all be fine because that one cruise ship only had a few cases...is that still the case?

"Within a couple of days, it's gonna be down close to zero."

 

[MinnesotaNorthStar]

Re: Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

At this point does anyone see an end game in the US other than herd immunity? I think the only variables are how many people die and how long it takes. The horse has left the barn.

Herd immunity has always been the end game. Flattening the curve is about preventing unnecessary deaths due to lack of medical resources for the worst patients, and to buy time to possibly get a vaccine developed before everyone gets infected with it.

 

[Drew S.]

Re: Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

I can't recall if I was watching or reading something very well done, but basically the argument was that 'herd immunity' in the way most people understand it vs. what it actually represents, is not only not feasible but certainly not even preferable. I need to try and track down the source.

It definitely isn't preferable. I think given so many people have it and where restrictions are going the other way it seems a bit inevitable to me. The only good news, if you can call it that, is the virus is a lot less lethal than originally feared. I think we easily wind up with a quarter of a million dead though.

 

[jflory81]

Re: Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

I can't recall if I was watching or reading something very well done, but basically the argument was that 'herd immunity' in the way most people understand it vs. what it actually represents, is not only not feasible but certainly not even preferable. I need to try and track down the source.

I mean even if the true death rate of the infection is 0.5% counting all asymptomatic people and all infections (this would mean 10-12X more people have contracted it than have been counted in the official numbers), it's still over a million and a half dead if everyone gets it IF you actually do become immune after you've had it once (which is not guaranteed or proven yet).

And that's not taking into account the people who have already died of it who aren't counted in the official numbers (died at home or misdiagnosed) or the people who have already been counted as positive cases who may still be in the ICU or on ventilators, some percentage of which unfortunately aren't going to make it

EDIT: For the record, and this is grain of salt because there's a demographics difference between the population of a cruise ship and the general population, but the death rate on the Diamond Princess (where everyone was tested) was ~1.3%. This includes people who were asymptomatic or who had minor symptoms.

EDIT2: It's also worth noting, if people are going to continue to insist on comparing this virus to the flu, that the commonly cited mortality rate of the flu (0.1%) also misses minor or asymptomatic cases that never get reported. I don't think there's any doubt at this point that this is 20X at minimum more deadly than the average flu strain.

 

[Wayuphere]

Re: Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

This is weird. Something is just not right with the way this virus is acting or what we think we’ve learned so far. How the hell does 370 pork processors in MO all test positive at one plant, but all asymptomatic???? 17% of the workers. No symptoms, but pos?
They testing the meat? I would think by now they would have.
Just weird.

 

[alfablue]

Re: Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

At this point does anyone see an end game in the US other than herd immunity? I think the only variables are how many people die and how long it takes. The horse has left the barn.

Even if that's the case (and I don't agree, as there's still a possibility that it can run out before we restart), that does not mean we can restart at will, and just let if happen. Our hospital system is not capable of dealing with that, and a LOT more people would die. It sucks that we are being driven by someone who wants us to believe that it's an honor to work and die so rich people can make more money. But there are companies out there with a real conscience, and they will do what it takes to keep people alive.

I REALLY wish there was a better alternative to Amazon, at this point. I've already put a short meat supplier list together- Smithfield and Tyson will be avoided- as they clearly can not figure out how to keep their employees safe, and consumers are going to suffer.

Everyone needs to pay attention to companies that actually care about things other than maximum profits.

 

[rufus]

Re: Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

At this point does anyone see an end game in the US other than herd immunity? I think the only variables are how many people die and how long it takes. The horse has left the barn.

And that means 2 million Americans dead. Trump is just bored now with Corona, and wants to get back to fellating Wall St. and holding his rallies.

Lots of dead people don't even enter the equation. Duncan Black said on his blog today, if Trump could just snap his fingers and immediately have things back to normal, with ten million people dead, he'd do that in a heartbeat.

 

[Drew S.]

Re: Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

Even if that's the case (and I don't agree, as there's still a possibility that it can run out before we restart), that does not mean we can restart at will, and just let if happen. Our hospital system is not capable of dealing with that, and a LOT more people would die. It sucks that we are being driven by someone who wants us to believe that it's an honor to work and die so rich people can make more money. But there are companies out there with a real conscience, and they will do what it takes to keep people alive.

I REALLY wish there was a better alternative to Amazon, at this point. I've already put a short meat supplier list together- Smithfield and Tyson will be avoided- as they clearly can not figure out how to keep their employees safe, and consumers are going to suffer.

Everyone needs to pay attention to companies that actually care about things other than maximum profits.

I think we should have a lot stricter lock down, but it doesn't seem likely. For the life of me I can't understand why masks/face coverings haven't been mandatory for a couple months now as well.

 

[jflory81]

Re: Covfefe-19: We Can Handle Slight Inconveniences. Part 8.

This is weird. Something is just not right with the way this virus is acting or what we think we’ve learned so far. How the hell does 370 pork processors in MO all test positive at one plant, but all asymptomatic???? 17% of the workers. No symptoms, but pos?
They testing the meat? I would think by now they would have.
Just weird.

I've heard some issues with false positives with the antibody tests, and although I've mostly heard about false negatives on the tests to see if you have the infection yourself, maybe there's a couple tests out there that also have false positive problems? The testing marketplace was pretty much the wild west for a minute there with the CDC not even bothering to test these tests that were being released to see if they worked.

If they are true positives, they just might not have started showing symptoms yet. If you're contagious before you start showing symptoms, I'd bet that you can test positive before showing symptoms as well.