Covfefe-19 The 12th Part: The Only Thing Worse Than This New Board Is TrumpVirus2020

[Handyman]

"Be careful using our numbers to project your own because we have differing demographics that mean a lot to outcomes" is a good and safe warning, even if the end result is that SA's experience was indicative.

Yep. Better to be safe than sorry. Plus their vax rates were very low IIRC.

 

[MichVandal]

Watching a university of tubes channel that talks a lot about natural immunity, and how powerful it apparently is.

One discussion was around the vaccine mandate for all- put in an individual medical context, it may make sense to test for prior infection before getting a vaccine. But what was missed was a public policy that would easily be applied to all- where just requiring 2 vaccine jabs is a whole lot easier and cheaper than a pre-test to determine if it was required. Even if the natural system was really good- this isn't about individual care, it's about a population and how to apply it to a population.

Another discussion was about all of the co-morbidities in the US. This after how deadly this virus has been in the US. What I see missed about the two put together- how much risk is one going to take to get natural immunity vs just getting a vaccine???

The risk to get natural immunity is incredibly high, relatively speaking- for the most part, covid is the most deadly thing going for the unvaccinated in the US. It's quite literally russian roulette to get any kind of natural immunity, and the odds are worse when you THEN factor in the co-morbidities.

As I see it, the best way to get any kind of natural immunity is when you are already vaccinated. The risk of it being serious (hospitalization and long term effects) or deadly are lowered by almost an order of magnitude (or more).

The data seems pretty clear when you look at the risk balance- get the vaccine vs. COVID- which has the odds for the worst outcome?

 

[dxmnkd316]

Didn't some doctor say that by the end of next month like half the world would have been infected, most of whom never would know it?

I believe I posted that comment. 99% sure that was the WHO estimate. 50% by end of March.

 

[MichVandal]

Didn't some doctor say that by the end of next month like half the world would have been infected, most of whom never would know it?

Even so, with Omicron being dominant, there's STILL a lot of people dying. So the "most of whom never would know it" are probably vaccinated.

That's one of the dangers with Omicron- it's not quite as bad, but it's still really bad. People are still dying in very high numbers that would probably stay alive for another 10-30 years.

 

[dxmnkd316]

Even so, with Omicron being dominant, there's STILL a lot of people dying. So the "most of whom never would know it" are probably vaccinated.

That's one of the dangers with Omicron- it's not quite as bad, but it's still really bad. People are still dying in very high numbers that would probably stay alive for another 10-30 years.

They're being darwinned.

 

[MichVandal]

They're being darwinned.

Funny that they wear seatbelts, don't drink from streams, look both ways crossing the street, won't eat spoiled food, may have decent gun safety, use hand rails, don't drink to excess, try not to drive off the road, get vaccinated for polio, etc- all the things we do that are far less deadly than COVID19. Heck, I'm sure they won't have unprotected sex with someone who has an STD, even.

When the "leaders" head up to the pearly gates, they are going to get a strong look. Or God won't even bother and send them to he77 without passing Go and collecting $200.

 

[SJHovey]

Watching a university of tubes channel that talks a lot about natural immunity, and how powerful it apparently is.

One discussion was around the vaccine mandate for all- put in an individual medical context, it may make sense to test for prior infection before getting a vaccine. But what was missed was a public policy that would easily be applied to all- where just requiring 2 vaccine jabs is a whole lot easier and cheaper than a pre-test to determine if it was required. Even if the natural system was really good- this isn't about individual care, it's about a population and how to apply it to a population.

Another discussion was about all of the co-morbidities in the US. This after how deadly this virus has been in the US. What I see missed about the two put together- how much risk is one going to take to get natural immunity vs just getting a vaccine???

The risk to get natural immunity is incredibly high, relatively speaking- for the most part, covid is the most deadly thing going for the unvaccinated in the US. It's quite literally russian roulette to get any kind of natural immunity, and the odds are worse when you THEN factor in the co-morbidities.

As I see it, the best way to get any kind of natural immunity is when you are already vaccinated. The risk of it being serious (hospitalization and long term effects) or deadly are lowered by almost an order of magnitude (or more).

The data seems pretty clear when you look at the risk balance- get the vaccine vs. COVID- which has the odds for the worst outcome?

I think there are a lot of people who don't view their risk of death from COVID as being that great. Let's say that for every 10,000 unvaccinated people, one of them will die from Covid, but for every 1,000,000 people who are vaccinated and boosted, one of them will die from COVID. Now, it seems like a no-brainer to many people that you would get vaccinated.

But I can tell you for certainty that there are a sizable number of people who will look at that and respond, "One out of ten thousand. Sounds pretty unlikely to me." And they are not completely wrong about that. If you have a one out of 10,000 chance of dying from COVID even without the vaccine, you're very unlikely to die from that disease. I state that as someone who has, on rare occasion, made some irresponsible football parlay bets with 10,000 to one odds.

Personally, I'd rather have it a million to one if we're talking about a bullet flying around looking to take someone down. But it's not like it's a coin flip that you're going to die if you don't get the vaccine.

 

[MichVandal]

I think there are a lot of people who don't view their risk of death from COVID as being that great. Let's say that for every 10,000 unvaccinated people, one of them will die from Covid, but for every 1,000,000 people who are vaccinated and boosted, one of them will die from COVID. Now, it seems like a no-brainer to many people that you would get vaccinated.

But I can tell you for certainty that there are a sizable number of people who will look at that and respond, "One out of ten thousand. Sounds pretty unlikely to me." And they are not completely wrong about that. If you have a one out of 10,000 chance of dying from COVID even without the vaccine, you're very unlikely to die from that disease. I state that as someone who has, on rare occasion, made some irresponsible football parlay bets with 10,000 to one odds.

Personally, I'd rather have it a million to one if we're talking about a bullet flying around looking to take someone down. But it's not like it's a coin flip that you're going to die if you don't get the vaccine.

But at the same time, the same people protect themselves from lesser ways to die. You are far less likely to die in a car accident, but people still wear seat belts. Some don't smoke for health reasons. Some eat healthy for reasons. Yet the threat of them ending your life early is much less.

I'm sure some even complain that the air near them is bad due to the fracking going on- and want to force the company to stop.

And everyone has smoke detectors- which are not free and many require battery upkeep.

Let alone the reaction to terrorism- 9/11 killed a few days worth of COVID deaths, and we spent trillions and killed or debilitated many Americans over that.

So it's odd that so many people do so much for lesser chances to die.

 

[dxmnkd316]

I think I read that for boosted individuals, COVID is now 1/3 as deadly than the flu.

 

[Kepler]

I think I read that for boosted individuals, COVID is now 1/3 as deadly than the flu.

I assume that is covid boosted vs flu vaxxed.

What is unvaxxed vs unvaxxed?

 

[burd]

Am I wrong in thinking that the vaccine ultimately acts to protect others in addition to one's self, even if indirectly? In other words, does the choice involve the safety of others as well as ourselves, as is more obviously the case with masks?

 

[Kepler]

Let alone the reaction to terrorism- 9/11 killed a few days worth of COVID deaths, and we spent trillions and killed or debilitated many Americans over that.\

Not to mention somewhere between 300k and 1M civilians in a totally unrelated country.

Man, we are gonna look bad in history.

 

[Kepler]

Am I wrong in thinking that the vaccine ultimately acts to protect others in addition to one's self, even if indirectly? In other words, does the choice involve the safety of others as well as ourselves, as is more obviously the case with masks?

Yes, the vaccine is primarily about herd immunity and overall rates of transmissibility and lethality. The fact that it is also superhero armor for the individual is icing on the epidemiological cake.

 

[SJHovey]

But at the same time, the same people protect themselves from lesser ways to die. You are far less likely to die in a car accident, but people still wear seat belts. Some don't smoke for health reasons. Some eat healthy for reasons. Yet the threat of them ending your life early is much less.

I'm sure some even complain that the air near them is bad due to the fracking going on- and want to force the company to stop.

And everyone has smoke detectors- which are not free and many require battery upkeep.

Let alone the reaction to terrorism- 9/11 killed a few days worth of COVID deaths, and we spent trillions and killed or debilitated many Americans over that.

So it's odd that so many people do so much for lesser chances to die.

I just don't think people compare the likelihood of dying from cause A to the likelihood of dying from cause B. That is, I doubt anyone looked at this and compared it with say the likelihood of dying in a car accident or from a heart attack, or whatever. Instead, they simply evaluate each event on its own.

For example, I once went whitewater rafting in Colorado. I have no idea how likely or unlikely it was that I could die from that, but my perception, at least, was that while there was some chance, it was still pretty unlikely.

I was thinking about this the other day. I personally do not know anyone who has died of Covid, with one exception. Obviously I've read stories about people I may have heard of who have died from the disease, but I don't have any relatives, friends, employees/co-workers, etc..., who have died. The only person I know is a guy that I used to play in golf tournaments with back in the mid-1970's, and I read his obituary in my hometown paper. He was 92 years old and living in a nursing home and died from the disease.

At the same time, I probably know a dozen people who have died in the last two years from other causes.

I don't think my experience is unique, hence the reason that I believe large segments of society don't see it as a huge threat.

 

[Handyman]

Even so, with Omicron being dominant, there's STILL a lot of people dying. So the "most of whom never would know it" are probably vaccinated.

That's one of the dangers with Omicron- it's not quite as bad, but it's still really bad. People are still dying in very high numbers that would probably stay alive for another 10-30 years.

Not my problem...

 

[Kepler]

For example, I once went whitewater rafting in Colorado. I have no idea how likely or unlikely it was that I could die from that, but my perception, at least, was that while there was some chance, it was still pretty unlikely.

I was thinking about this the other day. I personally do not know anyone who has died of Covid, with one exception.

You get the difference, right? You aren't going to catch drowning on a whitewater rafting trip minding your business at the grocery store.

 

[rufus]

Funny that they wear seatbelts, don't drink from streams, look both ways crossing the street, won't eat spoiled food, may have decent gun safety, use hand rails, don't drink to excess, try not to drive off the road, get vaccinated for polio, etc- all the things we do that are far less deadly than COVID19. Heck, I'm sure they won't have unprotected sex with someone who has an STD, even.

When the "leaders" head up to the pearly gates, they are going to get a strong look. Or God won't even bother and send them to he77 without passing Go and collecting $200.

You're assuming an awful lot about them.

 

[SJHovey]

You get the difference, right? You aren't going to catch drowning on a whitewater rafting trip minding your business at the grocery store.

I'm not even comparing those things. If you'll read the series of posts, you'll see what I'm talking about is people weighing what they perceive to be the risks associated with various activities.

People understand you can be minding your own business standing in a grocery store and catch COVID. They just don't perceive that there is that great of a risk of dying from it.

 

[Slap Shot]

I just don't think people compare the likelihood of dying from cause A to the likelihood of dying from cause B. That is, I doubt anyone looked at this and compared it with say the likelihood of dying in a car accident or from a heart attack, or whatever. Instead, they simply evaluate each event on its own.

For example, I once went whitewater rafting in Colorado. I have no idea how likely or unlikely it was that I could die from that, but my perception, at least, was that while there was some chance, it was still pretty unlikely.

I was thinking about this the other day. I personally do not know anyone who has died of Covid, with one exception. Obviously I've read stories about people I may have heard of who have died from the disease, but I don't have any relatives, friends, employees/co-workers, etc..., who have died. The only person I know is a guy that I used to play in golf tournaments with back in the mid-1970's, and I read his obituary in my hometown paper. He was 92 years old and living in a nursing home and died from the disease.

At the same time, I probably know a dozen people who have died in the last two years from other causes.

I don't think my experience is unique, hence the reason that I believe large segments of society don't see it as a huge threat.

Those segments are full of assholes. Good people think of the greater good, as well as the fact that although they may not be directly impacted by something they know someone else will be whether they know that person or not.

See poverty, housing, voting rights, abortion rights, taxing the middle class to pay for the 1%, drug abuse/addiction, racism, the environment, the war on drugs (all it's downstream problems), health care, education...

It's no surprise MAGAs can't see beyond their fat fucking face and realize it's not just about them.

 

[MichVandal]

I just don't think people compare the likelihood of dying from cause A to the likelihood of dying from cause B. That is, I doubt anyone looked at this and compared it with say the likelihood of dying in a car accident or from a heart attack, or whatever. Instead, they simply evaluate each event on its own.

For example, I once went whitewater rafting in Colorado. I have no idea how likely or unlikely it was that I could die from that, but my perception, at least, was that while there was some chance, it was still pretty unlikely.

I was thinking about this the other day. I personally do not know anyone who has died of Covid, with one exception. Obviously I've read stories about people I may have heard of who have died from the disease, but I don't have any relatives, friends, employees/co-workers, etc..., who have died. The only person I know is a guy that I used to play in golf tournaments with back in the mid-1970's, and I read his obituary in my hometown paper. He was 92 years old and living in a nursing home and died from the disease.

At the same time, I probably know a dozen people who have died in the last two years from other causes.

I don't think my experience is unique, hence the reason that I believe large segments of society don't see it as a huge threat.

If you asked a person why they are doing X- seat belt, eating well, good water- there's a high chance they will say it's safe. They may not compare it, but it's also not ignored at the same time. There have been threads on this board that claimed that going to Detroit was too dangerous to them... And much of that is more hyped fear mongering news, too. Just like the threat of terrorism is hyped fear mongering.

But when faced with an actual threat to your life, it's ignored.

BTW, your numbers of 1-10,000 are not good- we are almost at 1-330. That's how bad it is in the US.