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Covfefe-19 The 12th Part: The Only Thing Worse Than This New Board Is TrumpVirus2020

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That study smells like a conclusion that was looking for a study to verify it. It seems like they are saying "if you just exclude everything that doesn't disprove our point we totally prove our point!" Reminds me of sports fans who look for proof their team is better than their 1-7 record.
 
Handyman said:
That study smells like a conclusion that was looking for a study to verify it. It seems like they are saying "if you just exclude everything that doesn't disprove our point we totally prove our point!" Reminds me of sports fans who look for proof their team is better than their 1-7 record.
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I had a memory come up on Facebook today from 2013. It noted that at the time the Vikings (who I do not follow or root for) were 3-9-1. But if games were only 59 minutes they would be 8-5. That whole "if you ignore all the data" and "only count part of the points" thing really is fitting/comparing to so much on 2020...
 
WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot 2020? Now you've got me agreeing with Tom Cruise?!?

https://variety.com/2020/film/news/...ssible-7-crew-covid-19-guidelines-1234854675/

In audio obtained by The Sun, Cruise can be heard saying: “We are the gold standard. They’re back there in Hollywood making movies right now because of us. Because they believe in us and what we’re doing. I’m on the phone with every f-ing studio at night, insurance companies, producers and they’re looking at us and using us to make their movies. We are creating thousands of jobs, you motherf-ers. I don’t ever want to see it again. Ever!”

Cruise has been strict about enforcing COVID-19 guidelines on the set of the film in Britain, and scolded the crew for taking advantage of the safe environment that the team in place helped create.

“You can tell it to the people who are losing their f-ing homes because our industry is shut down. It’s not going to put food on their table or pay for their college education. That’s what I sleep with every night – the future of this f-ing industry!” Cruise said. “So I’m sorry, I am beyond your apologies. I have told you, and now I want it, and if you don’t do it, you’re out. We are not shutting this f-ing movie down! Is it understood? If I see it again, you’re f-ing gone.”
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Handyman said:
It seems that way cause it is.

edit: the comments do a great job picking apart how junk sciency this is.
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Still, you shut down schools and businesses, limit gatherings to fewer than ten people, and you've pretty much effectively implemented stay at home without actually declaring it.
 
rufus said:
Still, you shut down schools and businesses, limit gatherings to fewer than ten people, and you've pretty much effectively implemented stay at home without actually declaring it.
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That is the point though. They are trying to say 9if I am reading it right) that you dont need stay at home orders as long as you implement everything that goes into one. That would be like me saying "Eric Clapton isnt a better guitar player than me because if you take away his talent, how much he practices, his ability to learn music and the way he sounds when he plays it we are basically the same!".
 
Handyman said:
That is the point though. They are trying to say 9if I am reading it right) that you dont need stay at home orders as long as you implement everything that goes into one. That would be like me saying "Eric Clapton isnt a better guitar player than me because if you take away his talent, how much he practices, his ability to learn music and the way he sounds when he plays it we are basically the same!".
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"If you take away the big cities, Trump wins easily!!"
 
Handyman said:
That is the point though. They are trying to say 9if I am reading it right) that you dont need stay at home orders as long as you implement everything that goes into one. That would be like me saying "Eric Clapton isnt a better guitar player than me because if you take away his talent, how much he practices, his ability to learn music and the way he sounds when he plays it we are basically the same!".
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Aren’t they basically saying that unless you go with the most extreme form of lockdown (close all education, no face to face commercial interactions, no gathering greater than ten people), the mitigation measures are a waste of time?
 
Walz extends ban on indoor dining through holidays, tomorrow is first day many brave heroes say they’ll open in defiance
 
dxmnkd316 said:
https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status...879138306?s=20

I'm not sure what to think of this. Especially Topol's takeaway.

Edit: Ok, others seem to be interpreting this the same way I did. That the stay at home effect was minimal AFTER you limit gathers to 10 people and close businesses and schools. I mean, other than that, yeah, stay at home doesn't matter I guess...

This study is going to be twisted pretty hard and it's really upsetting that the authors didn't choose their words more carefully. Especially given the extreme variation on what each of those terms means from community to community, country to country. Even more-so when they don't consider these are national mandates vs. local. Just yikes Nature...

Edit 2: Eight stated variables (not including the unlisted variables like mask wearing, adherence to the rules, healthcare system, population size, density, quality of data, transportation system, time, etc.) and only 21 sets of data? How on earth do you expect to unwind them? I'm sorry, I just don't like this. This seems like bad science.
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Actually read the report instead of the graphs posted...

It's interesting that they have HUGE bands of uncertainty, including some rather non-sensical negative bands of effectiveness, and they somehow conclude that they can see each individual effect reasonably well. Does it even make sense that any of those actions would make spread happen more??? (the negative in the ranges). No discussion about that.

To the lack of helpfulness of the stay at home order- the "limit group size" is additive, too- those can't be isolated at all...

Limit to 1000 was 23%
The increase to 100 was just 11%
The increase to 10 was just another 8%.
So if the stay at home order was 13%, that was more effective than the other additive changes. In terms of individual steps to limit groups, it was the biggest change from the limit to 1000 people.
Put it in the math that the others gained, 13% on 42% would be 55% effective.

And the claim that they were able to isolate each change- when the error bands are that large, how, statistically, can they conclude they were able to isolate them?? It's been 30 years since I took statistics, but one needs a lot better data than that to be able to claim that you can separate effects- if those error bands are what is being worked with.

Having data to show that NPI's are effective is fine and all. But it's not all that well presented.
 
FadeToBlack&Gold said:
So they'll get one day's worth of meager business before they're phoned in by the town busybodies? Lol.
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Busybodies. Wow. Yeah, nothing better to do but help slow down a pandemic.

But to your actual point, this is a really stupid stunt. Losing your liquor license for 60 days isn’t that bad during a pandemic. Losing it for 5 years because none of these idiots has ever been told no, that seems bad. And probable. The state should have pulled their business licenses and arrested them.
 
dxmnkd316 said:
I was just coming here to post this. I expected to have heard of some. Literally none of them.
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I was a little surprised that I'm not familiar with any of them myself. Other than the East Grand Forks bar that's been in the news lately, none of the names rang a bell at all.
 
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