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Covfefe-19 The 11th Part: Suck It Up And Die Grandpa I Need A Manicure!!

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No one expects 100% accuracy, but in all likelihood the numbers are being fudged down.

As far as "103%" to the norm I'm willing to bet there's been a dropoff on several fronts due to people on the whole staying at home more often than not. Workplace accidents, accidental deaths from elective surgeries, crime/barroom brawls, car accidents...

My inclination is to think workplace accidents would be down, but the more I think about it, probably most of the most dangerous jobs are in the "essential" areas so I don't know.

Certainly things like elective surgery deaths should have decreased. But then, to what extent have deaths from fear of going into a hospital to get treatment increased?

I actually think it will be a real interesting study to see the effects on things like traffic deaths, elective surgeries, failure to treat, mass shootings, etc...
 
dx and I had this conversation a month or two ago. It's going to be really hard to get an accurate count of covid deaths. First, what is a covid death? Lots of people die from multiple causes. Frequently it can be a combination of things, and the question is what role did Covid play.

dx suggested, and I agree, that we're going to have to look back on this and see how deaths in the country changed from what is the average or expected death toll in the country for the year to see the true impact, but even then will we have an accurate picture? Let's say we're 200,000 above average for 2020. Does that mean there were 200,000 deaths from Covid? Not necessarily. We might have experienced a big drop in workplace deaths or car accidents, or maybe the opposite. Maybe we experienced more suicides than normal but fewer gun deaths. It's going to take some serious work to try to figure it out.

Last time I checked the US as a whole was running at about 103% of normal deaths for the year, with some states like NY way above average and others way below.

I don't think it will be that hard. While there will be the handful that might be assigned to heart attacks, the vast, vast, vast majority of deaths will be respiratory. So they will be either labeled Covid, pneunomia, or flu. And while the number won't be perfect, flu numbers are not that either. So take the 10 or 20 year population adjusted rate of pneumonia and flu, take the difference from March 1 on from that nominal rate, and add that to Covid cases.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

It's interesting that so far, there are 103k Covid deaths, 113k pneumonia deaths including Covid, but only 45k pneumonia + covid deaths. According to the American Thoracic Society, 50k American's die every year from pneumonia. Right now, we are at over 2x that. The only thing that has changed is Covid19. Seems like a safe thing to suggest that half of those ~70k are actually Covid.

The data that will be tough are the ones that die at home, and are never tested for Covid, as it would be a waste of a test. That probably happened quite a few times in New York.


The data will be there, it will be a matter of someone exposing it.
 
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Another big new case day for the Slave States:

Code:
FL 2610
AZ 1827
TX 1330
NC 1027
GA  952
LA  928
SC  566
 
dx and I had this conversation a month or two ago. It's going to be really hard to get an accurate count of covid deaths. First, what is a covid death? Lots of people die from multiple causes. Frequently it can be a combination of things, and the question is what role did Covid play.

dx suggested, and I agree, that we're going to have to look back on this and see how deaths in the country changed from what is the average or expected death toll in the country for the year to see the true impact, but even then will we have an accurate picture? Let's say we're 200,000 above average for 2020. Does that mean there were 200,000 deaths from Covid? Not necessarily. We might have experienced a big drop in workplace deaths or car accidents, or maybe the opposite. Maybe we experienced more suicides than normal but fewer gun deaths. It's going to take some serious work to try to figure it out.

Last time I checked the US as a whole was running at about 103% of normal deaths for the year, with some states like NY way above average and others way below.

Wouldn't a "but for" test work fairly well? Although there may have been other medical problems (causes), the patient probably would not have died "but for" the virus.
 
dx and I had this conversation a month or two ago. It's going to be really hard to get an accurate count of covid deaths. First, what is a covid death? Lots of people die from multiple causes. Frequently it can be a combination of things, and the question is what role did Covid play.

dx suggested, and I agree, that we're going to have to look back on this and see how deaths in the country changed from what is the average or expected death toll in the country for the year to see the true impact, but even then will we have an accurate picture? Let's say we're 200,000 above average for 2020. Does that mean there were 200,000 deaths from Covid? Not necessarily. We might have experienced a big drop in workplace deaths or car accidents, or maybe the opposite. Maybe we experienced more suicides than normal but fewer gun deaths. It's going to take some serious work to try to figure it out.

Last time I checked the US as a whole was running at about 103% of normal deaths for the year, with some states like NY way above average and others way below.

This is correct in terms of approach.
 
Orlando International Airport tested nearly 500 workers for Covfefe-19. Over half came up positive.
 
Orlando International Airport tested nearly 500 workers for Covfefe-19. Over half came up positive.

Actually I believe that is incorrect. The Idiot Governor screwed up the explanation.

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My inclination is to think workplace accidents would be down, but the more I think about it, probably most of the most dangerous jobs are in the "essential" areas so I don't know.

Certainly things like elective surgery deaths should have decreased. But then, to what extent have deaths from fear of going into a hospital to get treatment increased?

I actually think it will be a real interesting study to see the effects on things like traffic deaths, elective surgeries, failure to treat, mass shootings, etc...

If we look at it this way: Excessive deaths vs. expected

Total deaths have exceeded the expected count every week since March 28th (10 straight weeks, likely to hit 11 when all said and done), knowing that counting a death can lag for up to 8 weeks if not longer.

The actual has not exceeded the threshold for excessive since the end of January 2018.

Additionally Percent of Deaths Expected for all deaths hit as high as 139% the week of April 11. And although that % has been dropping again noting counts lag up to 8 weeks behind and expected deaths > 100% as recently as the week of May 23rd it's not difficult to ascertain what is happening.
 
If we look at it this way: Excessive deaths vs. expected

Total deaths have exceeded the expected count every week since March 28th (10 straight weeks, likely to hit 11 when all said and done), knowing that counting a death can lag for up to 8 weeks if not longer.

The actual has not exceeded the threshold for excessive since the end of January 2018.

Additionally Percent of Deaths Expected for all deaths hit as high as 139% the week of April 11. And although that % has been dropping again noting counts lag up to 8 weeks behind and expected deaths > 100% as recently as the week of May 23rd it's not difficult to ascertain what is happening.

While that's the correct argument using logic, money is more important. Few on the right care that deaths could, and can still, be prevented. Hovey is throwing his hands up in the "what can you do" question, not really accepting that you can do a LOT to prevent more deaths. The fact that the question is even posted is an indication of that- none of my answer is really hard to think about- I honestly didn't even look anything up. Most of that is stuff that has been posted here on the thread before.

PPE, barriers, and separations along with spot testing. None of that is hard or surprising. So why even ask what can be done?

The real push back is that all of the things have been heavily politicized. Instead of smartly starting back up, it's as if we have to go back to what it was before or this isn't worth it.

IMHO, seeing companies pretend to struggle with what to do is a real illustration if they care about their employees. Ones that actually care have been putting in place barriers for a long time. And they have been sharing their processes. This isn't new, or hard, or that expensive. In the face of having to deal with sick at home for a few week employees, or hospitalization of their employees, or death- they think it's cheaper to do nothing.

And one should remember, Hovey has specifically pointed out that he has no responsibility to his fellow citizens to prevent the spread of the virus. If he's here on this board, that means there are a lot of people just like him out there.

At this point, there will be two groups, ones that throw up their hands and give up, and ones that do things as safe as they can. Unfortunately, that means many if us will be prevented from going anywhere because of the former. We REALLY want to go on vacation, especially go on a cruise- but I see so many people who make excuses about Florida's up turn, so much blocking of masks, so much downplaying of this virus- it's not going to be until there's a vaccine until we will be able to go. All it will take is one person lying, and thousands of people will be exposed.
 
News last night that MIT is going mostly online and only allowing around half of kids back on campus for the fall. My guess would be that most schools wind up doing something similar.
 
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