Covfefe-19 Part 9: Shelter In Place is Temporary, but Wu-Tang is Forever

[SJHovey]

Re: Covfefe-19 Part 9: Shelter In Place is Temporary, but Wu-Tang is Forever

And yet others have shown that if all we did was get 80% of the population to wear masks that are 60% effective it would reduce R0 to under 1. But somehow we can't even be bothered to do that, because freedumb. The other HUGE problem with your plan is that it assumes we are immune after being infected, and that is at best unproven and at worst completely wrong.

I've got news for you. If there is no immunity after being infected (and there may not be), then we are all wasting our time here. The disease is here. It doesn't just vanish off the planet. If there is no immunity developed, take some steps to try to protect the most vulnerable to the best we are able, then buckle up because it's going to be a bumpy ride.

There was nothing that Trump's administration did that showed they were prepared at all to address the pandemic. However, hundreds of thousand of people fly into this country from China and Europe annually and we have no idea how many of those people may have been carriers. I'm not sure we could have known.

The virus was coming to America one way or the other. You can't be this big, with that many people traveling about the world, or accepting that many visitors from foreign countries, and expect the virus is going to somehow miss us.

Yeah, if you're a small, isolated, generally insular nation, you had a better chance than most to catch this early and possibly get a handle on it. But it wasn't going to happen here.

 

[rufus]

Re: Covfefe-19 Part 9: Shelter In Place is Temporary, but Wu-Tang is Forever

. However, hundreds of thousand of people fly into this country from China and Europe annually and we have no idea how many of those people may have been carriers. I'm not sure we could have known.

We could have been testing them, once this was known to be in China.

We chose not to.

 

[alfablue]

Re: Covfefe-19 Part 9: Shelter In Place is Temporary, but Wu-Tang is Forever

It's not just my line of thinking. Plenty of people who know way more about this than I do understand and have stated that the disease is here and the infections are going to occur. I think most understand that we probably need to see two thirds of the country exposed to this before the disease will stop spreading.

If, and it's a huge if, a vaccine could be developed, that will stop the spread and prevent deaths. But, as I understand it, that's a pretty huge if. First, we don't know if you can even find a vaccine that works. Second, doing so will take well into 2021, in all likelihood, and then we need to make it, distribute it, and get it into people. My guess is the disease will have spread far and wide long before any vaccine is available for widespread use, so at best we might have it available if this turns out to be a virus which recurs from year to year.

Uh, just because "plenty" if people think that way does not make it right.

If you can't see how social distancing can stop the virus, you are not paying attention. Pretend to be smart, see that a virus will run out when there's nobody left to infect. And that can be achieved by social distancing. This is pretty easy science and modelling.

And even better, it's not giving up. Instead of caving to someone else needing to make money, the harder we work at this, the sooner we get back to work, with a larger consuming society as well as more workers.

The math and model are both a lot easier than you make it out to be, and many, many deaths can be avoided. We can still do this.

 

[rufus]

Re: Covfefe-19 Part 9: Shelter In Place is Temporary, but Wu-Tang is Forever

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">"What did you do when you became president to restock those cupboards that you say were bare?"<br><br>"Well, I'll be honest, I have a lot of things going on," Trump said. Then he changed the subject to Democrats who "wasted time" on "hoaxes." He loves that word. <a href="https://t.co/DXni847hOu">pic.twitter.com/DXni847hOu</a></p>— Brian Stelter (@brianstelter) <a href="https://twitter.com/brianstelter/status/1258034284448878593?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 6, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[SJHovey]

Re: Covfefe-19 Part 9: Shelter In Place is Temporary, but Wu-Tang is Forever

Uh, just because "plenty" if people think that way does not make it right.

If you can't see how social distancing can stop the virus, you are not paying attention. Pretend to be smart, see that a virus will run out when there's nobody left to infect. And that can be achieved by social distancing. This is pretty easy science and modelling.

And even better, it's not giving up. Instead of caving to someone else needing to make money, the harder we work at this, the sooner we get back to work, with a larger consuming society as well as more workers.

The math and model are both a lot easier than you make it out to be, and many, many deaths can be avoided. We can still do this.

Again, social distancing doesn't stop the virus, it slows the virus spread. There is a difference, and one that people conveniently ignore when they claim we can just social distance this problem away.

 

[rufus]

Re: Covfefe-19 Part 9: Shelter In Place is Temporary, but Wu-Tang is Forever

Again, social distancing doesn't stop the virus, it slows the virus spread. There is a difference, and one that people conveniently ignore when they claim we can just social distance this problem away.

it'll certainly help.

But apparently, since it's so ****ing hard" we might as well not do it.

Just let the virus run free. A million or two will die. A lot more won't. Winning bigly.

 

[jerphisch]

Re: Covfefe-19 Part 9: Shelter In Place is Temporary, but Wu-Tang is Forever

Again, social distancing doesn't stop the virus, it slows the virus spread. There is a difference, and one that people conveniently ignore when they claim we can just social distance this problem away.

Again, math. If each person spreads it to less than one new person where does it end up?

 

[Kepler]

Re: Covfefe-19 Part 9: Shelter In Place is Temporary, but Wu-Tang is Forever

Again, social distancing doesn't stop the virus, it slows the virus spread. There is a difference, and one that people conveniently ignore when they claim we can just social distance this problem away.

Nobody is claiming social distancing alone ends the problem. You make some points worth consideration; don't throw it away being disingenuous.

 

[Slap Shot]

Re: Covfefe-19 Part 9: Shelter In Place is Temporary, but Wu-Tang is Forever

Didn't want to chase down the NCAA football thread.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">University of Tennessee announces it plans to bring all students back to campus this fall. Joins LSU, Alabama, Texas A&M, Missouri, Arkansas, Georgia, & South Carolina in making this announcement. SEC is playing football this fall, y’all.</p>— Clay Travis (@ClayTravis) <a href="https://twitter.com/ClayTravis/status/1258055470352347136?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 6, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[Deutsche Gopher Fan]

Fixed.

To a point, yes.

But I just finished a modeling and analysis on Sweden and SK. A large part of why each was able to do what they did was because of buy in to government and public health. And the welfare of others.

Many nations don’t have as strong of the freedumbtards that our conservative right has here.

 

[SJHovey]

Re: Covfefe-19 Part 9: Shelter In Place is Temporary, but Wu-Tang is Forever

Nobody is claiming social distancing alone ends the problem. You make some points worth consideration; don't throw it away being disingenuous.

I thought alfa did. He wrote "If you can't see how social distancing can stop the virus, you're not paying attention." That was the specific sentence I responded to, even though I included his whole quote. Again, I don't think it "stops" it, I think it slows it.

If that was not his intent, fair enough.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Covfefe-19 Part 9: Shelter In Place is Temporary, but Wu-Tang is Forever

To a point, yes.

But I just finished a modeling and analysis on Sweden and SK. A large part of why each was able to do what they did was because of buy in to government and public health. And the welfare of others.

Many nations don’t have as strong of the freedumbtards that our conservative right has here.

But that's not "Americans," then. We are just as American as the Republicans. Don't give them the default status they claim.

We are somewhere between a 60-75% non-moron nation. The GOP morons are a minority. Remember that: in a straight majority rule democracy the Republicans would have no power at the national level. None.

Americans are pretty good TBH. We have the affluenza and short attention span associated with the teevee generation, but otherwise the majority of Americans are generous and non-vicious.

We just have an unfortunate infestation problem. For now.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Covfefe-19 Part 9: Shelter In Place is Temporary, but Wu-Tang is Forever

I thought alfa did. He wrote "If you can't see how social distancing can stop the virus, you're not paying attention." That was the specific sentence I responded to, even though I included his whole quote. Again, I don't think it "stops" it, I think it slows it.

If that was not his intent, fair enough.

I read "stop" as "stop the growth of," not "eradicate." But I can see your reading, too.

To be pedantic (I know), social distancing could in fact entirely eradicate the virus. If you isolated every person (and presumably every non-human carrier, so, hey bats!) for however long it takes to become non-communicable (read: kill the host), that would eliminate the virus.

 

[BassAle]

Re: Covfefe-19 Part 9: Shelter In Place is Temporary, but Wu-Tang is Forever

I've got news for you. If there is no immunity after being infected (and there may not be), then we are all wasting our time here.

not if we find effective anti-virals that can reduce the severity

 

[Drew S.]

Re: Covfefe-19 Part 9: Shelter In Place is Temporary, but Wu-Tang is Forever

Didn't want to chase down the NCAA football thread.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">University of Tennessee announces it plans to bring all students back to campus this fall. Joins LSU, Alabama, Texas A&M, Missouri, Arkansas, Georgia, & South Carolina in making this announcement. SEC is playing football this fall, y’all.</p>— Clay Travis (@ClayTravis) <a href="https://twitter.com/ClayTravis/status/1258055470352347136?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 6, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

I could plan to become richer than Bill Gates, doesn't mean it will happen. I think those type of announcements are very disingenuous.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Covfefe-19 Part 9: Shelter In Place is Temporary, but Wu-Tang is Forever

I could plan to become richer than Bill Gates, doesn't mean it will happen. I think those type of announcements are very disingenuous.

You don't think they'll play?

The are absolutely going to play. If that means logistically that they will be killing their students, they will do that. This is the collegiate equivalent of TX high schools canceling math so they can build a bigger stadium.

The South is a failed state.

 

[Drew S.]

Re: Covfefe-19 Part 9: Shelter In Place is Temporary, but Wu-Tang is Forever

You don't think they'll play?

The are absolutely going to play. If that means logistically that they will be killing their students, they will do that. This is the collegiate equivalent of TX high schools canceling math so they can build a bigger stadium.

The South is a failed state.

They might play. I think there is a lot better chance of that than kids going back. With that being said I saw the coach of Oklahoma on ESPN during the draft and at that point he sounded pretty negative on there being a season. For whatever reason in the last couple weeks it seems like there has been quite a shift to just going 'back to normal' regardless of the consequences.

 

[rufus]

Re: Covfefe-19 Part 9: Shelter In Place is Temporary, but Wu-Tang is Forever

I read "stop" as "stop the growth of," not "eradicate." But I can see your reading, too.

To be pedantic (I know), social distancing could in fact entirely eradicate the virus. If you isolated every person (and presumably every non-human carrier, so, hey bats!) for however long it takes to become non-communicable (read: kill the host), that would eliminate the virus.

Which is basically what South Korea did. Before "isolating every infected person" meant pretty much your entire country.

We could have done that. Our leaders chose not to.

 

[rufus]

Re: Covfefe-19 Part 9: Shelter In Place is Temporary, but Wu-Tang is Forever

They might play. I think there is a lot better chance of that than kids going back. With that being said I saw the coach of Oklahoma on ESPN during the draft and at that point he sounded pretty negative on there being a season. For whatever reason in the last couple weeks it seems like there has been quite a shift to just going 'back to normal' regardless of the consequences.

Gee, wonder where that idea could be coming from?

It's baffling.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Covfefe-19 Part 9: Shelter In Place is Temporary, but Wu-Tang is Forever

Gee, wonder where that idea could be coming from?

It's baffling.

Remind me not to cross you.